Hypothetical Question

[actuary316]

I am in a 12 team mixed 4x4 auction keeper league.

Which would you rather have?

(1) Adrian Gonzalez & Jeremy Hellickson

or

(2) Joey Votto & Julio Teheran & $9 more dollars to spend at the auction

Thanks!

[Todd Zola]

I'll take 2.

In a mixed auction, I can use that $9 to upgrade another pitching spot to get Hellickson if I wanted.

One way to look at it is

1) Gonzalez, Hellickson and a $1 pitcher
2) Votto, Teheran and a $10 pitcher

Votto>AGonz

Teheran >= $1 pitcher

$10 pitcher >= Hellickson

so worst case is the upgrade to Votto

[Captain Hook]

With just 12 teams you should be virtually Stars and Cheapies (not quite scrubs)

You can get really good MI, CI, OF5 (if not 4&5) and even C2 if you want on the hitting side

You can get LOTS of good cheap pitchers > I mean really good ones - go look at our mixed 12 sheet for pitchers and see how many pitchers just above and below #108 you would be happy to play

[actuary316]

Sorry for the long post...I mentioned the league specs in my first post. A few additions would be we can keep up to 15 players plus 4 minor leaguers and min bid is $0. I definitely am doing a "stars & cheapies" approach. Here are my keepers:

1. Mauer
2. Adrian Gonzalez
3. Mig Cabrera
4. A Beltre
5. W Middlebrooks
6. D Pedrioa
7. I Desmond
8. J Rutledge
9. Ellsbury
10. Carlos Gonzalez
11. Kershaw
12. Cliff Lee
13. Bumgartner
14. Sale
15. ???

These 14 keepers leave me with $12 to spend. My last keeper I can decide between Dirks $5, Maybin $6, Moss $4, Dom Brown $4, C Ross $4, Balfour $7, Perkins $10, Chapman $12, Madson $4 or Teheran $4.

An owner asked about Chapman so I offered AGon and Chapman for Votto (who is $9 less than than AGon) but he declined the offer. Another owner offered Hellickson at $4 for Chapman (still on the table).

Out of the options listed above and Hellickson, who would you pick as my last keeper? I was thinking Hellickson but the springs that Teheran and Brown have had are making me think.

For completeness, I did not consider the following players, would you agree/disagree? Napoli $23, Ryan Howard $13, Rickie Weeks $21, Holliday $31, Pettite $4, Rodney $25 (selecting 1 of these players would require dropping one of the 14 listed above)


Also, I need to select 4 minor leaguers from the following:
Wil Myers
Castellanos
Bauer
Hultzen
Taillon
Barnes
or Teheran

I was leaning towards Myers, Bauer, Hultzen and Taillon. Would you agree?


Thanks!

[Captain Hook]

Sorry for the long post...I mentioned the league specs in my first post. A few additions would be we can keep up to 15 players plus 4 minor leaguers and min bid is $0. I definitely am doing a "stars & cheapies" approach. Here are my keepers:

1. Mauer
2. Adrian Gonzalez
3. Mig Cabrera
4. A Beltre
5. W Middlebrooks
6. D Pedrioa
7. I Desmond
8. J Rutledge
9. Ellsbury
10. Carlos Gonzalez
11. Kershaw
12. Cliff Lee
13. Bumgartner
14. Sale
15. ???

These 14 keepers leave me with $12 to spend. My last keeper I can decide between Dirks $5, Maybin $6, Moss $4, Dom Brown $4, C Ross $4, Balfour $7, Perkins $10, Chapman $12, Madson $4 or Teheran $4.

An owner asked about Chapman so I offered AGon and Chapman for Votto (who is $9 less than than AGon) but he declined the offer. Another owner offered Hellickson at $4 for Chapman (still on the table).

Out of the options listed above and Hellickson, who would you pick as my last keeper? I was thinking Hellickson but the springs that Teheran and Brown have had are making me think.

For completeness, I did not consider the following players, would you agree/disagree? Napoli $23, Ryan Howard $13, Rickie Weeks $21, Holliday $31, Pettite $4, Rodney $25 (selecting 1 of these players would require dropping one of the 14 listed above)


Also, I need to select 4 minor leaguers from the following:
Wil Myers
Castellanos
Bauer
Hultzen
Taillon
Barnes
or Teheran

I was leaning towards Myers, Bauer, Hultzen and Taillon. Would you agree?


Thanks!

First, I don't understand this > "These 14 keepers leave me with $12 to spend."
Is there a limit on keeper dollars or are you at $246 for your keepers (in which case we need prices on the keepers because I can't fathom going into the auction with something like $10 for 8 players)

2nd - I would Definitely keep Ryan Howard over Adrian Gonzalez - you would sacrifice some BA but pick up quite a bit of power

3) I would keep Teheran at $4 with (presumably) years left over Hellickson

4) Hard to believe you can't package Chapman with someone else for a justasgood cheaper player

5) Your minor leaguers depend on deciding between maximizing your chances for this year versus long term value AND the composition of your keeper list

[actuary316]

Yeah its a traditional $260 budget so the $14 guys isted are $248

1. Mauer $21
2. Adrian Gonzalez $29
3. Mig Cabrera $36
4. A Beltre $26
5. W Middlebrooks $4
6. D Pedrioa $27
7. I Desmond $6
8. J Rutledge $6
9. Ellsbury $20
10. Carlos Gonzalez $16
11. Kershaw $16
12. Cliff Lee $25
13. Bumgartner $12
14. Sale $4

My thought was with the above keeper list I would need a 2nd catcher, 3 OFs and 4 pitchers. I usually dont spend alot on C2 and I think OF and pitchers are deep enough so that I can wait it out and find some hidden gems (with the help of MB of course!). Looking at the list, it seems like I am a bit light on speed and saves.

I'm a huge Phils fan and Howard is one of my favorite players but I'm surprised to hear you say Howard over AGon. Howard is $16 less than AGon but Howard's history of ankle injuries scares me. My personal opinion is that Howard hits around .250 with 30 HRs and 100 RBI. I see AGon hitting around .315 with 25 HR and 120 RBI. Disagree? As I write this, I am reconsidering Howard over AGon.... What do you think "quite a bit of power is?

Additionally, there is no limit on number of years you can keep a player. Player's salary increases $4 each year. Teheran and Hellickson are would both be $4 in 2013, then $8 in 2014 etc.

I have tried shopping Chapman and got just a few nibbles. One was the from the Votto owner. That owner also has Altuve at $4 but not sure if he is available and if so, would you keep Altuve over Pedrioa? The other came from the Hellickson owner. Other possible targets on his team would be Hosmer $8, Asdrubal $8, Moustakas $8, Fowler $4, Span $4, Belt $6 or Vmart $4. If other than the OF's listed, I would need to adjust my keeper list since I currently have all CI and MI and DH slots filled.

I tried putting "mega" deals together with Chapman & Howard or AGon or Ellsbury but have been rejected. There is one owner that I havent approached that has Kemp at $24 - worth making an offer? (but I would need to reconfigure my keeper list).

Finally, this team has won the last 3 leagues and we are trying to squeeze a 4th (I know greedy) so we are thinking 2014 will be rebuilding so minor leaguers would be more for 2014 and beyond than 2013.

[actuary316]

oh BTW ...

"I can't fathom going into the auction with something like $10 for 8 players)"

We have done this in the past (not quite this low - but close). Its definitely different and you dont do anything the first hour or so of the auction but if you have a very solid set of keepers and confidence in your ability to mine for cheap gems it can be done. I usually get my gems from MB player profiles. For instance, last year, MB profiles was high on Sale "What we know is Sale has great stuff but we don't know about his stamina or how his stuff will play the third and hopefully fourth time through an order. Every fantasy squad needs some upside plays so if you have a nice, stable pitching foundation, Sale is the type that can help separate you from the pack." so I got him for $0!

Historically, with the large number of keepers, the inflation for this league is crazy high. Last year, Pujols was in the pool and he went for well over $50, Wright $34, Mariano for $40, Uggla $24, Mike Young &17 etc etc. Its like real sports when there is a "weak" free agent class and multiple teams with cash to spend. You end up with some crazy contracts.

This is why I am not afraid to roster the players mentioned for the prices they are at. I know if thown back into the pool most, if not all, would go for more than their current salary.

[Captain Hook]

Yeah its a traditional $260 budget so the $14 guys isted are $248

1. Mauer $21
2. Adrian Gonzalez $29
3. Mig Cabrera $36
4. A Beltre $26
5. W Middlebrooks $4
6. D Pedrioa $27
7. I Desmond $6
8. J Rutledge $6
9. Ellsbury $20
10. Carlos Gonzalez $16
11. Kershaw $16
12. Cliff Lee $25
13. Bumgartner $12
14. Sale $4

My thought was with the above keeper list I would need a 2nd catcher, 3 OFs and 4 pitchers. I usually dont spend alot on C2 and I think OF and pitchers are deep enough so that I can wait it out and find some hidden gems (with the help of MB of course!). Looking at the list, it seems like I am a bit light on speed and saves.

I'm a huge Phils fan and Howard is one of my favorite players but I'm surprised to hear you say Howard over AGon. Howard is $16 less than AGon but Howard's history of ankle injuries scares me. My personal opinion is that Howard hits around .250 with 30 HRs and 100 RBI. I see AGon hitting around .315 with 25 HR and 120 RBI. Disagree? As I write this, I am reconsidering Howard over AGon.... What do you think "quite a bit of power is?

Additionally, there is no limit on number of years you can keep a player. Player's salary increases $4 each year. Teheran and Hellickson are would both be $4 in 2013, then $8 in 2014 etc.

I have tried shopping Chapman and got just a few nibbles. One was the from the Votto owner. That owner also has Altuve at $4 but not sure if he is available and if so, would you keep Altuve over Pedrioa? The other came from the Hellickson owner. Other possible targets on his team would be Hosmer $8, Asdrubal $8, Moustakas $8, Fowler $4, Span $4, Belt $6 or Vmart $4. If other than the OF's listed, I would need to adjust my keeper list since I currently have all CI and MI and DH slots filled.

I tried putting "mega" deals together with Chapman & Howard or AGon or Ellsbury but have been rejected. There is one owner that I havent approached that has Kemp at $24 - worth making an offer? (but I would need to reconfigure my keeper list).

Finally, this team has won the last 3 leagues and we are trying to squeeze a 4th (I know greedy) so we are thinking 2014 will be rebuilding so minor leaguers would be more for 2014 and beyond than 2013.

Okay I think the only players with high salaries are AGonz and Cliff Lee but I can see keeping both as you said your needed players should be cheap.

BUT
1) Yes I would keep Altuve $4 over Pedroia at $27, improving both speed and buying power for more bags
2) I think Howard hits closer to 35+ and Gonzalez closer to $20 this year plus again you gain $$
3) "conventional" wisdom would say to trade for Kemp at that price ... I might do it but am wary that he is not completely healthy
4) still like Teheran for Braves in NL over Hellickson in AL for this year

[actuary316]

Fun conversation! Thanks!

I floated Altuve for Chapman. Was told Altuve is available but he would want a bit more than Chapman. In the process of finding out what that means.

I am coming around on Howard and $16 over AGon.

I guess the final roster slot would come down to Teheran at $4, Dom Brown at $4, Balfour $7 or Perkins $10. I am wary of keeping either closer. Being a Phils fan, I love seeing what Dom has done this spring. I know Joyner altered his stance a bit. Do you think Dom is finally getting "it"? Any whispers you've heard? I am a bit wary of Manuel's use of Dom the last few years. I would hate to keep him and see him as a platoon player.

I think either Teheran or Dom would be speculative plays. Go for the offense potential or the pitching? Both were top prosepcts just a year or two ago. Interesting!

[Captain Hook]

Still like Teheran over Brown for this year - both skills and team situation

[actuary316]

Just for completeness I kept Howard over agon, then traded chapman for altuve and then kept him over pedrioa. Finally I kept Teheran over Dom and cringed when Dom went yard again today

[Captain Hook]

Just for completeness I kept Howard over agon, then traded chapman for altuve and then kept him over pedrioa. Finally I kept Teheran over Dom and cringed when Dom went yard again today

Why it won't count in the standings

[actuary316]

I'm a big Phils fan and seeing Dom having a good spring is exciting. He seems to have turned the corner and is playing like many thought he would/could. I think he is going to have a nice year

[da_big_kid_94]

I'm a big Phils fan and seeing Dom having a good spring is exciting. He seems to have turned the corner and is playing like many thought he would/could. I think he is going to have a nice year

Remember the famous words of Lou Brown from Major League II .... "Yeah for a guy who may be bagging groceries in a couple of weeks."

[actuary316]

I'm a big Phils fan and seeing Dom having a good spring is exciting. He seems to have turned the corner and is playing like many thought he would/could. I think he is going to have a nice year

Remember the famous words of Lou Brown from Major League II .... "Yeah for a guy who may be bagging groceries in a couple of weeks."

For what its worth, Dom had another 3 hits today and yet another HR. This is a different player then the one that has scuffled the last few years in Philly. He kid is raking right now. I'm hoping he does this all year. I will definitley be targeting him in my upcoming drafts/auctions,

[da_big_kid_94]

I'm a big Phils fan and seeing Dom having a good spring is exciting. He seems to have turned the corner and is playing like many thought he would/could. I think he is going to have a nice year

Remember the famous words of Lou Brown from Major League II .... "Yeah for a guy who may be bagging groceries in a couple of weeks."

For what its worth, Dom had another 3 hits today and yet another HR. This is a different player then the one that has scuffled the last few years in Philly. He kid is raking right now. I'm hoping he does this all year. I will definitley be targeting him in my upcoming drafts/auctions,

Then what else can be said except best of luck to you.

[actuary316]

Then what else can be said except best of luck to you.

No need to be snippy.

Just trying to share some information on a player. BTW - another HR today for Dom.

[da_big_kid_94]

Then what else can be said except best of luck to you.

No need to be snippy.

Just trying to share some information on a player. BTW - another HR today for Dom.

Whoa .. exactly who is trying to be snippy? Believe me, you want snippy? Ask around. I can bring snippy all day long if I feel the need to do so. If spring training stats float your boat, then may the force be with you. I've owned Dom Brown in the past - it's my experience that there is virtually no one who suddenly finds religion in spring training that have continued on that pace when the bell sounds for the real deal. Like I said before, best of luck to you.