Top 12

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Top 12

#1 Post by Black Sox »

Just wondering people's top 12 for this year. I've never had this much trouble coming up with a top 12 ( I mean after miggy braun trout cano I'm struggling ). Just looking for other opinions, really feel like there are a lot of ? marks after the top 4 go off the board. Really feel getting an earlier pick is a bigger advantage this year than most others where I'd rather pick later in the 1st to get a better 2nd round pick. Agree? Disagree?
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Re: Top 12

#2 Post by Captain Hook »

Top 12 from JBL draft that Todd and I wrote up earlier
R. Braun
M. Cabrera
Trout
Cano
McCutchen
Pujols
Fielder
Kemp
Bautista
C. Gonzalez
Votto
Longoria

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Re: Top 12

#3 Post by Todd Zola »

In general, it is a complete and total crap shoot after the top 3 (I'd say top 2 because I feel there is risk with Trout).

I like Cano's reliability and production so I am comfortable with him as early as 3. After that, it is risk versus reward, with Trout's reward being much bigger than his risk, but still risk nonetheless.

It also depends on context - depth of league, frequency of transactions, etc.
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Re: Top 12

#4 Post by Black Sox »

Captain Hook wrote:Top 12 from JBL draft that Todd and I wrote up earlier
R. Braun
M. Cabrera
Trout
Cano
McCutchen
Pujols
Fielder
Kemp
Bautista
C. Gonzalez
Votto
Longoria
I'd want no part of mccutchen or longoria as a 1st round pick. Bautista is a tough one since there is a real chance his wrist injury could sap some of his power or worse. If he's slow out of the gate and lets say puts up .280 29 90 90 or so he's no longer a 1st round pick ( really you just drafted Holliday in rd 1 ). I was surprised that the projections here were bullish on him returning to pre injury production. The fact he is still not at full strength is skipping the WBC, makes me little nervous.
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Re: Top 12

#5 Post by Captain Hook »

I have sympathy for your stance on Longoria although if he stays healthy for a whole year he would produce first round numbers but you might be the only one I know of who wouldn't take McCutchen in the first - typically he is going at 1.05 or 1.06 in money league drafts. Why are you down on him?

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Re: Top 12

#6 Post by Black Sox »

While it doesn't surprise me he's going that high it won't be to me. I mean a .375 BABIP screams good fortune. If his BA falls to around .290 he's a 2nd round pick. I mean I understand that he's grown as a player but the more you really look at his numbers vs past years....

Year BA BABIP FB% HR/FB
2012 .327 .375 34.3 19.4
2011 .259 .291 41.7 12.2
2010 .286 .311 37.8 8.7

I mean he hit 7% less FB yet hit 7% more HR/FB????? Numbers don't add up sounds like everything broke right for him, plus he plays on a bad team that overacheived. I think he comes back down and while still a great player not early/mid 1st round player in my book. If you take MB projections and decrease his BA down to .290 and touch nothing else he loses $3 in value and he's the 7th ranked OF. For my money I'd rather Ellsbury 2 rounds later and bank on at least +10 more SB. Id rank OF as

1. Braun
2. Trout
3. Kemp
4/5. Bautista / Cargo ( can be flipped )
6/7/8 Granderson/McCutchen/Ellsbury ( can be flipped )
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Re: Top 12

#7 Post by SteveB »

Black Sox wrote:

6/7/8 Granderson/McCutchen/Ellsbury ( can be flipped )

Ellsbury, Granderson has been falling into the third and fourth rounds. I am not saying he is not a great pick here but i think your much better off coming in with a Votto, Tulo, Posey and getting Granderson a round or two later.

In the NFBC draft I am in right now i just got Granderson with pick 46.

In the three drafts i have done so far for 2013 Ellsbury has gone 42, 43, and 32

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Re: Top 12

#8 Post by Todd Zola »

32? What a maroon. I'd sure like to be in a league with that asstard 8-)
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Re: Top 12

#9 Post by Black Sox »

Todd Zola wrote:32? What a maroon. I'd sure like to be in a league with that asstard 8-)
Will you still be making fun if his 3rd round pick goes for
.300 20 71 100 45 ??? I mean quite honestly 34 SB seems low if you belive he'll be healthy, which with 600 AB your projecting a full season. Also the person taking Ellsbury at 32 knows full well he won't be there at 59, so if you belive why not? I understand your assuming all the risk and limiting the profit at 32 but I'd rather take my chances with Ellsbury returning 3rd round value than Mccutchen returning top 7 value.
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Re: Top 12

#10 Post by Todd Zola »

Asstard = me
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Re: Top 12

#11 Post by Black Sox »

:lol: oh ok I guess I'm making your point ( that's pretty funny )
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Re: Top 12

#12 Post by Todd Zola »

15 team league from the 2 hole

1.02 Braun
2.29 J Upton
3.32 Ellsbury

I'll probably write this one up from a strategic standpoint so I'll save the rest.
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Re: Top 12

#13 Post by Black Sox »

Well your certainly not playing it safe. Not sure I would have gone Upton there but if he rebounds wow that's quite a lot of counting stats you rostered early! Not sure why I'm not as high on Upton rebounding ( going into last year I thought he'd return 1st round value ) yet I plan on being all over Ellsbury Hosmer Lowrie etc.

You've also shown me the light in reguards to position scarcity and I won't hesitate to go OF OF OF if the board falls that way, where in past years I'd never consider it.
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Re: Top 12

#14 Post by Todd Zola »

that'll be part of the discussion

My C/IF is Yadier, Konerko, Phillips, Alexei Ramirez and Moustakas so I don't feel as though I have given anything back there (as well as balancing the risk with the safe but boring Konerko/Phillips/Alexei.

We're only in R12 so still a ways to go -- the pitching will be weaker than usual (by design).

I expect either the MI or CI to be very weak but we'll see.
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Re: Top 12

#15 Post by Black Sox »

Well at least you got Phillips :lol: Ever considered what you'll do when he retires :o

What does your staff look like?

Also I've heard you reccomend you roster 24 P in this format, what's the breakdown of SP vs RP ? also are you rostering MR or is the focus on SP & Closers? Is your starting line up most weeks a 7/2 split and are you streaming one of your SP spots?
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Re: Top 12

#16 Post by Todd Zola »

This is not an NFBC Draft Champions (formerly slow draft). Uses once a week moves with FAAB.

Zimmermann, Cueto, John Johnson, Parker and Holland -- nice ratios but low on K's so I'll need to stream well.

I'd want at least 18 starting pitchers in NFBC-DC format. Then 2 "safe" closers, 2 solid MR and 2 speculative closers with 2 wild card spots.
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You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Re: Top 12

#17 Post by AllstonRockCity »

Black Sox wrote:
Captain Hook wrote:Top 12 from JBL draft that Todd and I wrote up earlier
R. Braun
M. Cabrera
Trout
Cano
McCutchen
Pujols
Fielder
Kemp
Bautista
C. Gonzalez
Votto
Longoria
I'd want no part of mccutchen or longoria as a 1st round pick. Bautista is a tough one since there is a real chance his wrist injury could sap some of his power or worse. If he's slow out of the gate and lets say puts up .280 29 90 90 or so he's no longer a 1st round pick ( really you just drafted Holliday in rd 1 ). I was surprised that the projections here were bullish on him returning to pre injury production. The fact he is still not at full strength is skipping the WBC, makes me little nervous.

With the ginormous caveat that I have not yet really begun my prep for the season and am going strictly off of my ever diminishing memory/expanding gut, I have to agree with this statement.

Now, maybe the reason Longo makes the top 12 is purely be default (no one else is good enough), and that's all well and good. But I can not get behind him as a 1st rounder based on his own merits. I'm fairly certain that Longo is about to break some sort of record for the player that's been drafted in the 1st the most times, yet has NEVER returned 1st round value.

Same song and dance every year with this guy (who BTW is 1 of my favorite players).......excuses X, Y & Z as to why he didn't put up 1st round numbers the year before. But reasons A, B & C as to why he will this year.

Do I think he is talented enough to put up top 12 numbers? Abso-friggin-lutely. However, until he actually does it, I'm passing in the 1st and maybe even the 1st half of the 2nd.

His backers kinda remind me of Sox fans pre 2004.....Wait til next year, it'll be our year

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Re: Top 12

#18 Post by Todd Zola »

McCutchen scares me. I've taken him a few times in the 5/6 spot and I hate it.

Assuming someone takes Trout in the top-3, I am fine with Cano at 4 so I'm comfortable in the top-4 (I would take Cano 3rd).

After that, I HATE it. I'd rather pick last in the round.

If you separate the players into high upside but risky and lower ceiling but safe, I have Cutch at the top of the former with Albert and Prince at the top of the latter.

When push comes to shove in March, I'm not sure which way I would go -- right now I'm taking Cutch because to me the risk is the batting average, the counting stats will be there and there are some 1B I want to get later.
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You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Re: Top 12

#19 Post by Black Sox »

Todd Wouldn't the pick then at 5/6 be Cargo or Kemp?

Cargo just seems more stable and I feel like his upside is the same as McCutchen. Cargo does get nicked up but he put up similar numbers to McCutchen with less games played. For my money I'd also rather a Rockie vs Pirate.

I'm a little scared by Kemp this year because I'm afraid he won't run to lessen injury ( a la N.Cruz ) but even without the elite SB he's still a better pick than McCutchen in my mind

From what I can tell you'd really prefer to get that HR/SB combo early ( as would I ) however I'm coming to the realization that at that point if lets say the agreed top 4 are off the board + Cargo/Kemp I'm thinking of going 1B and nabbing Votto, Pujols or Fielder.
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Re: Top 12

#20 Post by Captain Hook »

I think the doubts on McCutchen are unfounded at least as it relates to total value - Yes his BAvg rates to regress but even in the 290s his overall contributions should return first round value

Note that in his first four years in the major leagues, his R, RBI and HR have ALL increased each year .... and he is still only 26 and headed into his "prime years"

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Re: Top 12

#21 Post by Black Sox »

Perry,

So where would u draft him? At 5/6? Over Kemp, Cargo, Pujols, Votto, Fielder?
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Re: Top 12

#22 Post by Todd Zola »

The problem with McCutchen's average is the midpoint is in the .290s, this is what I expect.

But his downside is .260-.270.

But as PVH said as well as myself -- the counting stats will be there so I just need to have some BA buffer elsewhere, and if Cutch hits for average, I do better in the category.

Cutch over CarGo because of health concerns. CarGo has more of a chance to miss significant time than McCutchen, IMnotsoHO anyway.
Catchers are like prostate exams -- comes a time where you can't put if off any longer, so you may as well get it over with and take it up the butt - The Forum Funklord

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Re: Top 12

#23 Post by Captain Hook »

Black Sox wrote:Perry,

So where would u draft him? At 5/6? Over Kemp, Cargo, Pujols, Votto, Fielder?
Interesting question ...
Is Rihanna in the picture? Are you worried about Kemp missing time this year? Is this the safe pick or boom/bust pick?

At 1.05 personally I would take McCutchen over Kemp ... but it's close and certainly Kemp is the pick for greater upside but lower floor

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Re: Top 12

#24 Post by Black Sox »

Captain Hook wrote:
Black Sox wrote:Perry,

So where would u draft him? At 5/6? Over Kemp, Cargo, Pujols, Votto, Fielder?
Interesting question ...
Is Rihanna in the picture? Are you worried about Kemp missing time this year? Is this the safe pick or boom/bust pick?

At 1.05 personally I would take McCutchen over Kemp ... but it's close and certainly Kemp is the pick for greater upside but lower floor
I am worried he misses time, hamstrings are tricky things. I'm worried the SB drop as a means of trying to stay healthy, but I'd still roll the dice with him over McCutchen. I probably start debating it at 9/10 with Fielder.

Like I said I've never seen such a suspect top 10. I really only feel like there are 5 guys I'd bank on returning 1st Rd value, after that I just feel like your mitigating risk, which is why I've started to lean towards the cluster of 1B. Although I thought A Gon was a safe #1 pick last year and we all know how that one turned out.
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Re: Top 12

#25 Post by Captain Hook »

Well we have to agree to disagree - frankly the first tier talent level is so deep that I understand those who if they can't get a Top 3 or Top 4 pick wanting to draft from the last spot and have first pick in the 2nd and all even rounds

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Re: Top 12

#26 Post by Black Sox »

Captain Hook wrote:Well we have to agree to disagree - frankly the first tier talent level is so deep that I understand those who if they can't get a Top 3 or Top 4 pick wanting to draft from the last spot and have first pick in the 2nd and all even rounds
I actually think we agree. I think it's more of a glass 1/2 full vs 1/2 empty way of looking at it. You see lot's of talent evenly matched and I bemoan the lack of truly elite talent.
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Re: Top 12

#27 Post by 2004 Champs »

Captain Hook wrote:I have sympathy for your stance on Longoria although if he stays healthy for a whole year he would produce first round numbers but you might be the only one I know of who wouldn't take McCutchen in the first - typically he is going at 1.05 or 1.06 in money league drafts. Why are you down on him?
Longoria has never produced first round numbers, though...are you expecting growth? He, to me, is one of those guys who gets drafted somewhat higher than he should because of perceived value. Not that he's a terrible pick by any means...

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Re: Top 12

#28 Post by Black Sox »

2004 Champs wrote:
Captain Hook wrote:I have sympathy for your stance on Longoria although if he stays healthy for a whole year he would produce first round numbers but you might be the only one I know of who wouldn't take McCutchen in the first - typically he is going at 1.05 or 1.06 in money league drafts. Why are you down on him?
Longoria has never produced first round numbers, though...are you expecting growth? He, to me, is one of those guys who gets drafted somewhat higher than he should because of perceived value. Not that he's a terrible pick by any means...
While I'm still not taking him in the 1st round the argument for it does include something I think is true. Longoria is not someone who misses a game here or there or is constantly day to day. Most of the time when he's out he's out which allows you to replace him in the line up. When he plays he gives you elite numbers. So if you draft a competent back up you can mitigate the risk. Strategy also should be based on your size league, deeper the league harder it is to be able to allocate resources to backing up another player.
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Re: Top 12

#29 Post by 2004 Champs »

That just isn't so, however....he has never produced quite the level of numbers you are suggesting. Check the history books :) In other words, the problem isn't just injuries---it's lack of production when he's out there, too.

One man's view: it's a move called 'safe' that is actually just 'a clear reach'. If you draft him in the first round, you are hoping he grows and produces at a level he has not done before---which is a perfectly reasonable thing to do, mind you, if done with that set of assumptions.

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Re: Top 12

#30 Post by Black Sox »

In 2009 he went for .281 33 113 100 9 that's pretty close to 1st round value to me.
Then in 2011 in 133 games he goes for .244 31 99 78 3. (he's a career .276 hitter )

Add all of this to the fact he just turned 27, and you start to see why people would invest.
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Re: Top 12

#31 Post by Todd Zola »

Put his best aggregate season together and you have a top-5 pick. Problem is Longoria hasn't put it all together the same season yet.

if he does it this season, he'll be a consensus top-10 pick next year.
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Re: Top 12

#32 Post by lewp »

One thing that stands out to me as you look at this top-12, and as I read comments about it being a crap-shoot after the first 4, is Votto. He's down at number 10 and number 3 among 1Bers on this list. Whereas I've seen him as the number 1 1B and as high as 4-5 (although more often around 7) elsewhere. Generally lists I've seen have Votto and Pujols interchangeable around 6 and 7.

Is he being undervalued here? The strong spring would seem to indicate no lingering concern with the miniscus. (Maybe that's it, this was a pre-spring post?)

Thoughts? Thanks.

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Re: Top 12

#33 Post by Todd Zola »

lewp wrote:One thing that stands out to me as you look at this top-12, and as I read comments about it being a crap-shoot after the first 4, is Votto. He's down at number 10 and number 3 among 1Bers on this list. Whereas I've seen him as the number 1 1B and as high as 4-5 (although more often around 7) elsewhere. Generally lists I've seen have Votto and Pujols interchangeable around 6 and 7.

Is he being undervalued here? The strong spring would seem to indicate no lingering concern with the miniscus. (Maybe that's it, this was a pre-spring post?)

Thoughts? Thanks.
Even with a healthy knee, Votto's power is capped as he does not hit many fly balls and relies on a high HR/FB.

I don't see him running much anymore

If his power is back, that makes him a 25 HR guy with a high average - sounds more like Butler/AGonz than the #5 pick to me.

The only reason he's not lower in my projections is I didn't adjust the SB down. The 9 carries over pre-injury numbers.
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You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Re: Top 12

#34 Post by 2004 Champs »

Just a follow-up on the Longoria discussion: he's been healthy all year, and he's just nowhere close to top 10 value.

Moral of the story: expecting veterans to perform at a higher level than they have before is not a great bet! Of course, neither is Matt Kemp...so you can lose in the first round in a number of ways.

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Re: Top 12

#35 Post by Todd Zola »

2004 Champs wrote:Just a follow-up on the Longoria discussion: he's been healthy all year, and he's just nowhere close to top 10 value.

Moral of the story: expecting veterans to perform at a higher level than they have before is not a great bet! Of course, neither is Matt Kemp...so you can lose in the first round in a number of ways.
For the record, he's been on the field but not 100% healthy. Not saying he would have been a first rounder - just pointing out he's been playing hurt.

I have him as the 45th hitter now so add in a few pitchers and he's 4th/5th round talent.
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You know you have to seek therapy when you see one of your pitchers had a bad night and it takes you 15 minutes to find the team you have him on. - The Forum Funklord

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Re: Top 12

#36 Post by Captain Hook »

and btw he will get drafted too early again next year - of course so will Tulowitzki and Kemp

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