How to get the best "Value"?

[steve9781]

Here is my dilema, wondering what others think. My big $$ league is an online snake draft run through cbs.sportsline. The problem I'm having is how to get the best value. From what I have found most owners, while having their own rankings list will enevitably draft the players they like based on where cbs has ranked the players. What I'm trying to figure out is how I should approach it. As an example I have M.Kemp ranked as the 4th best outfielder for this year. CBS has him ranked around 21 or the 59th player on the top 300 ( I know ) making him a round 5/6th round pick. If I pick him in the 2/3rd round I'm wasting value. In my live leagues obviously I have my ranks, and draft accordingly since everyone has their own lists. Exploiting CBS ranks is a strategy I've used for many years, and has helped me to win many league titles. However I'm moving up to the $250 - $500 leagues and I'm not sure if this strategy will hold true.

[rotodog]

Here is my dilema, wondering what others think. My big $$ league is an online snake draft run through cbs.sportsline. The problem I'm having is how to get the best value. From what I have found most owners, while having their own rankings list will enevitably draft the players they like based on where cbs has ranked the players. What I'm trying to figure out is how I should approach it. As an example I have M.Kemp ranked as the 4th best outfielder for this year. CBS has him ranked around 21 or the 59th player on the top 300 ( I know ) making him a round 5/6th round pick. If I pick him in the 2/3rd round I'm wasting value. In my live leagues obviously I have my ranks, and draft accordingly since everyone has their own lists. Exploiting CBS ranks is a strategy I've used for many years, and has helped me to win many league titles. However I'm moving up to the $250 - $500 leagues and I'm not sure if this strategy will hold true.

This is excatly why I dislike Straight draft. But what I have done in the past is exactly what you did. Look at ADP and DO NOT TRUST CBS..THAT STUFF IS FROM LAST YEAR...Go to Mockdraftcentral and check out some mocks and where guys are falling.

When you get a sense that a guy is going later than you would expect, then make note of that. Find the pockets of value, but you dont want to make Kemp your second rounder because you have him ranked that high if you could get him in the fourth. ...Especially if you can get Alex Rios type in the 5th or 6th.(off the top of my head fellas)....

The danger is waiting to long, but at 500 bucks entry, you wont be sneaking much past these guys...I always felt 2-5 were important picks and many times in the 5th round you can grab 2nd round stats. Same with the mid late rounds....Possible to grab stats there that someone grabbed in the 7th round....

So dont reach if similar players will be around 3 rounds later...I could see a round earlier than ADP, but after your second round ranking...if hes going 5ht round, then maybe the fourth on kemp...

Again i am just using Kemo as an example as I have no idea where he is going....but if you can get a Horse like like Gil Meche in the 16th, why reach for Beckett in the 6th?

Hope it helps and I am sure more Knowledgeable straight drafters will chime in..

[viper]

I differ even more. Forget about ADP for anything more than a look see as to how others with probably less skills then you are viewing things. There must be some way to impose your own ranking list as your default list for the draft. Trust in your own lists. Do you have any way of knowing how CBS constructed their list? Of course not. Whether you use the MB lists or a variation, at least you know why you are doing what you do.

As far as ADP goes, realize that is influenced by the ADPs own default list. For 10-15 rounds, it may follow the typical draft but after that, who knows. And do you know the quality of people that comised these ADP list? Agiain, of course not. Are you sure the ADP list was based on the same parameters of your league? Maybe yes and maybe no. If no, it is totally worthless even at the front end. Like I said, all an ADP list can do it show you where you might find values when drfating against the masses. Don't be a lemming.

[steve9781]

I differ even more. Forget about ADP for anything more than a look see as to how others with probably less skills then you are viewing things. There must be some way to impose your own ranking list as your default list for the draft. Trust in your own lists. Do you have any way of knowing how CBS constructed their list? Of course not. Whether you use the MB lists or a variation, at least you know why you are doing what you do.

As far as ADP goes, realize that is influenced by the ADPs own default list. For 10-15 rounds, it may follow the typical draft but after that, who knows. And do you know the quality of people that comised these ADP list? Agiain, of course not. Are you sure the ADP list was based on the same parameters of your league? Maybe yes and maybe no. If no, it is totally worthless even at the front end. Like I said, all an ADP list can do it show you where you might find values when drfating against the masses. Don't be a lemming.

Viper

I understand your point about trusting my lists, however if I draft players earlier than I need to I have wasted value. IF I can get a 2nd round pick in the 5th round by using the knowledge that people more often than not base picks off the default list, I have the chance to roster more talent in my opinion than my competitors. With my M.Kemp example ( I made a mistake I have him ranked 6th) Let's say I want both M.Kemp & C.Lee ( my rank 4th) on my team, if I draft M.Kemp in the 2nd round there is no way C.Lee is still there by my next pick in the draft. But there is a better than 60% M.Kemp would be had I drafted C.Lee first. I'm not saying that people on CBS draft right from the ranks. But I do belive that "most" look at the top 10-15 players overall listed and then make their choice, when had they gone off their own rankings they would be picking someone listed much farther down the list. There may be no real "answer" to my question but I'd love to hear what other people have to say.

[roche]

If you think that you are in a tough hardcore league, forget about mickey-mouse strategies like using ADP to determine draft positions. ADP represents the lowest common denominators. If your opps are top-notch, they are not drafting like the rubes. Using ADP is good in Yahoo public leagues and the likes. Against tough competition, you will be a day late and a dollar short on every one of your picks (like Kemp).

[viper]

I understand your point about trusting my lists, however if I draft players earlier than I need to I have wasted value. .

Value is in the eye of the beholder. It seems as if you are drafting not to please yourself but to have others feel you did a good job. Forget about those others. If your list shows Kemp as better and Lee really close, then take advantage of ADP and take Lee knowing there is chance that Kemp will drop but not Lee. Just don't be upset when he goes right before your next pick. If you feel that whoever you don't take will definitely be gone before you select again, go with what your lists say and screw the competition. They may call you dumb but if you are right, you will be, as the saying goes, be laughing all the way to the bank.

To quote that famous philosopher Ricky Nelson, "But it's all right now, I learned my lesson well.
You see, ya can't please everyone, so ya got to please yourself "

[steve9781]

I understand your point about trusting my lists, however if I draft players earlier than I need to I have wasted value. .

Value is in the eye of the beholder. It seems as if you are drafting not to please yourself but to have others feel you did a good job. Forget about those others. If your list shows Kemp as better and Lee really close, then take advantage of ADP and take Lee knowing there is chance that Kemp will drop but not Lee. Just don't be upset when he goes right before your next pick. If you feel that whoever you don't take will definitely be gone before you select again, go with what your lists say and screw the competition. They may call you dumb but if you are right, you will be, as the saying goes, be laughing all the way to the bank.
You see, ya can't please everyone, so ya got to please yourself "[/i]

I could care less what others think of my draft. My only concern is getting who I think are the best possible players ( in my opinion) with as low of a pick as possible, which is how I view getting the best value early in a draft. I belive negative value occurs in the first 5 rounds, when I select a player earlier than I had too. After Round 5 I belive in going more so from my ranks and less based on the 10 -15 players listed next on the que.

[roche]

My only concern is getting who I think are the best possible players ( in my opinion) with as low of a pick as possible, which is how I view getting the best value early in a draft

Most people would say that the best that you can do is break even with the very best players. Your profit comes from the middle and end-game. The reason for this is that the list of top players is identical for every participant in the draft. In fact, even the ranking of the best players is likely to be identical. If everyone is drafting from the same list, no one can get value out that situation.
When the lists begin to differ is where your profit will be.

[viper]

If I have this right, your list shows Kemp ahead of Lee but most ADPs and specifically the CBS top 15 has Lee on it and Kemp not. Now you are up in the second round.

You can
(1) Take Kemp and never see Lee - assume this is the only option if you take Kemp
(2) Take Lee and watch Kemp go before your next pick
(3) Take Lee and watch Kemp fall into your lap

This is a question which cannot be answered. In either of the first two options, you will take the same level of player in round three. This is a risk/reward situation and everyone handles it differently. How it is handled in round three when your team makeup is still in its infancy may be different than in round 14 when future picks by others are less defined. I, for one, take Lee and hope Kemp slides. If I had Kemp higher it wouldn't be by much. I would gamble that Kemp is under appreciated and that he slides. I suspect other would say take the best available. At some point, the difference in stats would make me take Kemp. That difference isn't clear to me but I know it when I see it.

[steve9781]

My only concern is getting who I think are the best possible players ( in my opinion) with as low of a pick as possible, which is how I view getting the best value early in a draft

Most people would say that the best that you can do is break even with the very best players. Your profit comes from the middle and end-game. The reason for this is that the list of top players is identical for every participant in the draft. In fact, even the ranking of the best players is likely to be identical. If everyone is drafting from the same list, no one can get value out that situation.
When the lists begin to differ is where your profit will be.

I disagree completly. I belive everyone has different lists ( to an extent ) But more imporantant is how those ranks are compared to other positions. We can both have the same exact list and position ranks, but if your willing to draft a pitcher or 2nd basemen in the first 4 rounds ( which I'm not willing to do ) that completly changes the overall rank of the player pool. It's how I feel I can build the best team based on what I project will happen.

[viper]

you may be trying to over-analyze things. But I admit, I go though some of the same thoughts.

[steve9781]

If I have this right, your list shows Kemp ahead of Lee but most ADPs and specifically the CBS top 15 has Lee on it and Kemp not. Now you are up in the second round.

I miss posted earlier I have Kemp ranked 6th and C.Lee ranked 4th which makes them a bad example for my point. A better example would be selecting J.Bay who I have ranked 9th, before trying to aquire M.Kemp a round or two later based on what I have seen.

[Guest]

Your original question is whether now that you've moved up to big money leagues, whether the strategy of sitting on a player and waiting based on public perception is a strong one.

I would say specific to that question, the stronger your league, the less "cute" you should be about trying to steal players.

If you would be devastated to see a guy go before your next pick, take them. If you have multiple players who meet that criteria, you should tie-break with the highest rated one on your list.

However, there's a big difference between having pick 18 and waiting till pick 43 and having pick 28 and waiting until 33, also.

[roche]

I miss posted earlier I have Kemp ranked 6th and C.Lee ranked 4th

Lee 4th?
As in
1. Hanley
2. Reyes
3. Pujols
4. Lee
5. AFraud?

I don't even have Lee as 4th on my list of starters. In that case, we do have very different lists and your list is markedly different than the "conventional" lists.

[Todd Zola]

I think he means Carlos and the rank is amongst OFers.

[steve9781]

Your original question is whether now that you've moved up to big money leagues, whether the strategy of sitting on a player and waiting based on public perception is a strong one.

I would say specific to that question, the stronger your league, the less "cute" you should be about trying to steal players.

If you would be devastated to see a guy go before your next pick, take them. If you have multiple players who meet that criteria, you should tie-break with the highest rated one on your list.

However, there's a big difference between having pick 18 and waiting till pick 43 and having pick 28 and waiting until 33, also.

Gary,

I understand your point and it's a good one. However I'm not trying to get cute with my picks, I'm trying to use CBS's default list and find an advantage over what I belive are most owners tendencies to draft players listed at the top of the que. I'm hoping to use this knowledge along with my evaluation of the player pool to construct the best team. I'm never hung up on getting a specific player by name, but the statistics I can expect to accumulate based on who I select earlier in the draft. An example is selecting S.Drew in round 5 when I'm fairly certain I can get better value later by selecting J.Peralta in round 8, and then comparing that to whom I was able to select in round 5. I'm calling this my crystal ball theroy, while I know it's never going to be perfect, I'm trying to be able to see the draft unfold before it happens.

Here is what I'm doing let me know if you see a fatal flaw, or am I using good judgement. Keep in mind that this is all based on my league parameters ( 10 team Mix 5x5 with 29 man rosters )

For me it all starts with the first 2 rounds. I've gone through and ranked my top 20 players, but I've elminated all pitchers catchers and 2nd basemen from the list ( I'm not willing to draft them, others will which then means I'm hoping to get more than 2 of my top 20). It's my opinion that the shallowest position in the league is OF, the more OF I'm able to roster earlier when there value is similar to other positions, the better off I am. My first round in made up of 2 SS / 3B / OF and 31b (my only problem is figuring out my 10th pick and I've gone back and forth between Tex & Hamilton, although to be honest I'm hoping it does not come down to that . My preference is not to select a 1b in the first round, but I will if I have to. Rounds 2/3 are almost always OF unless I get Braun/Sizemore in rd 1, in which case I'll look at 1B in round 3. Round 4 is another OF unless other teams have hit the position hard and value is not there. In rd 5 I'm looking for a cluster of B.Phillips / A.Rameriez / S.Drew ( or B.McCann sometimes) if possible, if not I'm looking for best available hitter. I personally don't consider a pitcher until rd 7/8 hoping to land Oswalt/Lakey/Beckett who are available about 50% of the time at that point, but I'm ok with not getting one of them. By round 9 I'm going strictly off my list, and no longer pay that close to the default list, since this seems to be where people start to really ingnore CBS and start drafting for need. I will look at the default list is reguards to pitchers since owners that are drafting a P, seem to use the default list to pick out who they want based on the 10 top pitchers listed.

Well that's my thinking, let me know what you think. Just trying to eliminate as much of the guess work out of the draft as possible and "see into the future". I understand my strategy would not work in NFBC or deeper leagues, but I think it works in my format, and could work in different types of leagues with a few tweaks here and there.

[cwk1963]

Your original question is whether now that you've moved up to big money leagues, whether the strategy of sitting on a player and waiting based on public perception is a strong one.

I would say specific to that question, the stronger your league, the less "cute" you should be about trying to steal players.

If you would be devastated to see a guy go before your next pick, take them. If you have multiple players who meet that criteria, you should tie-break with the highest rated one on your list.

However, there's a big difference between having pick 18 and waiting till pick 43 and having pick 28 and waiting until 33, also.

Gary,

I understand your point and it's a good one. However I'm not trying to get cute with my picks, I'm trying to use CBS's default list and find an advantage over what I belive are most owners tendencies to draft players listed at the top of the que. I'm hoping to use this knowledge along with my evaluation of the player pool to construct the best team. I'm never hung up on getting a specific player by name, but the statistics I can expect to accumulate based on who I select earlier in the draft. An example is selecting S.Drew in round 5 when I'm fairly certain I can get better value later by selecting J.Peralta in round 8, and then comparing that to whom I was able to select in round 5. I'm calling this my crystal ball theroy, while I know it's never going to be perfect, I'm trying to be able to see the draft unfold before it happens.

My feeling is if it's a big money league, the CBS queue may as well not exist. These guys aren't going to be going by it, or Yahoo queues or ESPN queues either. Do your homework. As Gary said, pick players where you think the value is and don't get cute. Get cute and you're liable to get eaten up. I don't know if the NFBC makes their draft results available but, if they do and you have the time, look at them to see where guys are going. I don't put too much faith into Mock results because many times players are experimenting with a different strategy and the results could be very skewed from a real league.

[50 Desert Eagles]

The higher the stakes, the more knowledge everyone will have in that league. None may have the same stratagy, but they won't pick Shin-Soo CHoo in the first round either.

[Guest]

An example is selecting S.Drew in round 5 when I'm fairly certain I can get better value later by selecting J.Peralta in round 8, and then comparing that to whom I was able to select in round 5. I'm calling this my crystal ball theroy, while I know it's never going to be perfect, I'm trying to be able to see the draft unfold before it happens.

This is fine, and it's funny you raise these two players because I've told Todd a few times I love Jhonny given his production compared to his pub. It's not what you describe via Lee and Kemp above, which is taking a player you like LESS because you want to gamble the guy you like more will come back to your next pick. That's playing with fire. The above is playing smart.

Your analysis is perfect, here. This is how you properly evaluate a snake draft.

[Trav The Ump]

Having been a CBS site user for well over ten years in both baseball, hockey and the last couple in football. I'd say the CBS site is nothing more than a funny little anecdote. You might glean some noise off of it, but to assume any of your leaguemates let alone a majority of them are going to be using that ranking is foolhardy. In hockey I'd rather trust the pre-game analysis from the interviewer on VS. It's just unreliable and not tailored to any sort of league specifically. I have ten guys in my league and I'd be seriously surprised to find any of them using CBS. (Our 1st place usually pays about $750).

Second thing I'll add, if you think Kemp is worth that pick why not just take him? If I think Vernon Wells is going to hit 50hr this year (he's not lol) why not take him at the top flight OFer's rather than risk losing him. That's the beauty of having your own projections and intuitions. Go with your analysis, you did it for a reason. I guess it comes down to "make your own luck or rely on others to provide it"?