Trading For 2013

[RandyKutcherHair]

AL Only 8 team Roto dynasty and I am in last place, without a shot at the money, planning for next year. Not only am I in last but I owned Adrian Golzalez who is obviously now in the NL so he is gone. I own Ellsbury and am contemplating trading him. I've been offered a deal of Ellsbury and Matt Harrison for Jose Bautista from a team in contention this year I'm thinking of countering with a Ellsbury and a mid round draft pick. Bautista is signed with Toronto thru at least 2015 while Ellsbury may bolt as a free agent after next year. I'm having a tough time deciding if I should move on from Ellsbury and could use some input.

[CubFan]

Randy, I'm assuming you are aware that Joey Bats is having surgery on his wrist. Wrist surgeries can be tricky buggers that can zap a guy of his power. That being said he should be fully recovered by ST. If it were me I'd hold onto Ellsbury. Ellsbury has power, speed, average and should produce just as many if not more runs than Bautista. I also think now that Boston has some salary flexibility they'll be willing to sign Ellsbury to a long term contract. They may wait till next season to do that though. BTW, Ellsbury has hit 3rd a few times since the big 3 left town. Hmmmm......will he hit there in 2013? If they don't have a better option I can see him there.

[Captain Hook]

Depends to some degree on your risk aversion - totally minimizing risk it would be good to trade Ellsbury for Bautista.

BUT if you do I would NOT trade Matt Harrison in the deal - no reason why he can't put up a few more seasons like this and Texas is built to win for several years

[RandyKutcherHair]

Thanks CubFan. Yes I know that Joey Bats is going under the knife for wrist surgery. But I am out of it for this year and I'm assuming like you said he will be back for ST next year. I agree on Ellsbury as he probably helps in more categories with his speed if healthy (which is not a given considering his history); but it is so tough to know what the Sox will do going forward and even if Boras would allow Ellsbury to take a long term deal without hitting free agency. The dilemma is more about long term since this is an AL Only league. Probably leaning towards keeping Ells.

[RandyKutcherHair]

Depends to some degree on your risk aversion - totally minimizing risk it would be good to trade Ellsbury for Bautista.

BUT if you do I would NOT trade Matt Harrison in the deal - no reason why he can't put up a few more seasons like this and Texas is built to win for several years

Thanks Captain. I offered a one for one and was rejected. I agree on Harrison. Outside of Harrison the other team wants a top minor league prospect to offset the risk. I'm not on board with that.

He just offered a one for one with Jesus Montero for Bautista.

[da_big_kid_94]

OK ... I admit it...I'm stumped. With a a very public cautionary tale like Carl Crawford, why is the assumption that Joey Bats will be all rainbows and lollipops by ST? Think Crawford owners had any doubt he was going to be 100% healthy by ST 2012? I know the frustration of not going anywhere in a season and trying to make better - but with so much up in the air, why now? Forget about any year that doesn't end in a "3". A week ago Gonzalez was definitely not being traded and a month ago there was no way Ryan Dempster was going to the AL. And you want to trade for a guy who's situation is very much up in the air. And with a guy who somehow thinks what you are offering for his injured ballplayer isn't enough.

Sit and wait ....back away from the trade button. At least wait for SOME of the variables to become known.

[Captain Hook]

Depends to some degree on your risk aversion - totally minimizing risk it would be good to trade Ellsbury for Bautista.

BUT if you do I would NOT trade Matt Harrison in the deal - no reason why he can't put up a few more seasons like this and Texas is built to win for several years

Thanks Captain. I offered a one for one and was rejected. I agree on Harrison. Outside of Harrison the other team wants a top minor league prospect to offset the risk. I'm not on board with that.

He just offered a one for one with Jesus Montero for Bautista.

In a one catcher league (esp with AJ on board for $4) I would definitely make that trade

[RandyKutcherHair]

In a one catcher league (esp with AJ on board for $4) I would definitely make that trade

This league actually has a c spot and a c/dh spot. It is an interesting offer of Montero for Bautista. I am a sucker for young prospects and have visions of Montero breaking out while keeping c eligibility for years to come. My other catcher is Napoli and who knows if he will be in the AL next year as a free agent this offseason. Not that Baustista is a sure thing for next year but he has proven more the Montero. Is this a case of me over thinking things?

[da_big_kid_94]

In a one catcher league (esp with AJ on board for $4) I would definitely make that trade

This league actually has a c spot and a c/dh spot. It is an interesting offer of Montero for Bautista. I am a sucker for young prospects and have visions of Montero breaking out while keeping c eligibility for years to come. My other catcher is Napoli and who knows if he will be in the AL next year as a free agent this offseason. Not that Baustista is a sure thing for next year but he has proven more the Montero. Is this a case of me over thinking things?

Tell ya what ...ask yourself one question ...why now? Why do you want to make a move now? To me, this is a knee jerk reaction (only offer I got ...better jump on it now)...or did Safeco become a better offensive park and Seattle became an offensive juggernaut while I wasn't looking? Why the rush ...you afraid the offer won't be there if you wait? And that would be a bad thing why?

[RandyKutcherHair]

I originally began to ask around to see what I could get for Ellsbury. The main reason behind this was the risk associated with his pending free agency. Living in Boston I'd like to see him stay and sign an extension but we all know how Boras works. That plus the recent move away from long term big money have me thinking the Sox may move him to help kickstart the rebuild this offseason. I did have other offers but they Were mainly built around a 1st rd pick plus a lesser player.

Also I had trying to trade for Bautista earlier this year and was rebuffed. Once I fell way out of it and the Bautista get injured I tried again as I thought I would be able to pry him loose since the other team was still in a fight for the money and Bautista wasn't going to be able to help. I'm sure that Montero for Bautista will be there but I'm sure the other owner is more apt to deal Bautista while he is injured.

[da_big_kid_94]

I originally began to ask around to see what I could get for Ellsbury. The main reason behind this was the risk associated with his pending free agency. Living in Boston I'd like to see him stay and sign an extension but we all know how Boras works. That plus the recent move away from long term big money have me thinking the Sox may move him to help kickstart the rebuild this offseason. I did have other offers but they Were mainly built around a 1st rd pick plus a lesser player.

Also I had trying to trade for Bautista earlier this year and was rebuffed. Once I fell way out of it and the Bautista get injured I tried again as I thought I would be able to pry him loose since the other team was still in a fight for the money and Bautista wasn't going to be able to help. I'm sure that Montero for Bautista will be there but I'm sure the other owner is more apt to deal Bautista while he is injured.

Then best of luck to you.

[RandyKutcherHair]

Kid, I see you aren't a fan. Is it just wrist injury that bothers you with Bautista?

[da_big_kid_94]

Kid, I see you aren't a fan. Is it just wrist injury that bothers you with Bautista?

No ....really not a question of being a fan. I just wonder why there seem to be so many people who have so much faith in their own powers of prognostication. It seems that deals like this are made now because no one can allow for the possibility that things could be any different 6 months from now. Your team is a perfect example. Two weeks ago, could you have even entertained the thought that you would not be the owner of Adrian Gonzalez for years to come? With HIS contract? Two weeks later? You're SOL.

It's the personification of the joke about the man who goes into a 7-11 and buys a pack of cigarettes and a lottery ticket. His friend reminds him that he has a 1 in 2 chance of getting lung cancer if he keeps smoking, to which he replies; "Won't happen to me." His friend points out he has a 1 in 148 million chance of hitting the lottery, to which he responds; "I feel lucky today".

Unless the trade is a slam dunk, why anyone would make a significant deal for the following year involving receiving players with major question marks (whether they be physical, current/new team make up, etc.) is beyond me. The point on risk aversion has already been made in this thread. so there's no need to re-emphasize. It's not as if you're getting an injury discount from the guy. I like Montero ...not in Seattle ..but I like Montero. I may make this deal in spring training - but not now. Seems like one of the parties in this deal isn't sure how well Joey Bats is coming back from this, and is looking to see what he can get for him now, rather than later. if he truly believes that, I CAN see this deal from his side.

[RandyKutcherHair]

I hear where you are coming from. Obviously the injury is a huge concern and no one can predict the future. There are risks on both sides. In the initial Ellsbury for Bautista proposals the risk on Bautista is the injury and the risk on Ells is his contract status. Montero is a little different as the risk is the bad hitting home park.

[Captain Hook]

In a one catcher league (esp with AJ on board for $4) I would definitely make that trade

This league actually has a c spot and a c/dh spot. It is an interesting offer of Montero for Bautista. I am a sucker for young prospects and have visions of Montero breaking out while keeping c eligibility for years to come. My other catcher is Napoli and who knows if he will be in the AL next year as a free agent this offseason. Not that Baustista is a sure thing for next year but he has proven more the Montero. Is this a case of me over thinking things?

Is the C/DH spot ONLY for C and real DH? (ie don't qualify at another position like Ortiz, Hafner et al)

If that is the case I might not make what I consider a good trade for you otherwise. While wrist injuries have been troublesome for some hitters it is not universal so I would trade Montero in a one catcher league for Joey Bats .... BUT if you don't have a DH better than Montero AND Napoli who I think qualifies there (leagues vary) leaves the AL which I really doubt then Montero might be a good play.

[RandyKutcherHair]

Is the C/DH spot ONLY for C and real DH? (ie don't qualify at another position like Ortiz, Hafner et al)

If that is the case I might not make what I consider a good trade for you otherwise. While wrist injuries have been troublesome for some hitters it is not universal so I would trade Montero in a one catcher league for Joey Bats .... BUT if you don't have a DH better than Montero AND Napoli who I think qualifies there (leagues vary) leaves the AL which I really doubt then Montero might be a good play.

The C/DH spot is available for any player who has 5 games played this year or 20 games previous year at either position. DH is not limited to only real DH's.

[Captain Hook]

Is the C/DH spot ONLY for C and real DH? (ie don't qualify at another position like Ortiz, Hafner et al)

If that is the case I might not make what I consider a good trade for you otherwise. While wrist injuries have been troublesome for some hitters it is not universal so I would trade Montero in a one catcher league for Joey Bats .... BUT if you don't have a DH better than Montero AND Napoli who I think qualifies there (leagues vary) leaves the AL which I really doubt then Montero might be a good play.

The C/DH spot is available for any player who has 5 games played this year or 20 games previous year at either position. DH is not limited to only real DH's.

Then I would make the Montero/Bautista trade

[Dugan]

Is the C/DH spot ONLY for C and real DH? (ie don't qualify at another position like Ortiz, Hafner et al)

If that is the case I might not make what I consider a good trade for you otherwise. While wrist injuries have been troublesome for some hitters it is not universal so I would trade Montero in a one catcher league for Joey Bats .... BUT if you don't have a DH better than Montero AND Napoli who I think qualifies there (leagues vary) leaves the AL which I really doubt then Montero might be a good play.

The C/DH spot is available for any player who has 5 games played this year or 20 games previous year at either position. DH is not limited to only real DH's.

Then I would make the Montero/Bautista trade

In a heartbeat imo..even if you didn't want Bautista...I'd rather have Bautista to deal.