Looking for thoughts on my AL keepers

[CubFan]

OK, gotta get this out of my system and let da big kid bang away on me

12 team AL only 5x5 keeper league with $260 salary cap. Can keep a max of 6. See signature for current entire roster.

I have Kinsler signed at $13 thru 2009.
Which additional five would you protect from the following (I've already run thru 6 different scenarios).....

Alexi Ramirez $1 (a no brainer IMO)
Longoria $19 (sophmore swoon?....did Phillies lay out the blueprint on how to pitch to him)
Youkilis $17 (can you say career year....but he did change his philosophy, hard to pass on a
middle of the order guy in that lineup for that salary)
Shoppach $2 (lots of pop but K:AB too high and BABIP unsustainable)
Crisp $1 (has a starting gig and thus cheap 20+ steals)
Choo $1 (good shot at starting gig?....looked good in 2nd half)
David Murphy $6 (will hit in that lineup...probably worth $15-$18)
Devine $3 (penciled in as co-closer and was unhitable in 2nd half...some injury concern)
James Shields $7 but has to be signed....figure 1 yr at $12 (would be nice to slot him as my
#2 at that salary)
Baker $6 (nice growth and Twinkie pitcher's underrated as a group....figure he'll go for
$12-$16)
Balfour $1 (probably not.....unless he is THE closer)
Sherrill $1 has to be signed (don't think his shoulder will hold up plus Ray is in the wings)


....footnote....on the trade front I offered Crisp and Sherrill for 1 year of Markakis $15. He almost bit but countered Crisp/Devine. I balked as I'm seriously considering protecting Devine. Would you make that trade? Today he wants to know who I would package with Crisp (I guess he really wants him....my concern is there is little around Markakis so RBIs and Runs will be hurt....besides is there much difference between he and Youk at those salaries?). Welcome any thoughts?

[da_big_kid_94]

Welcome back, old boy.
The 5

Alexi Ramirez $1 (a no brainer IMO)
Longoria $19 (sophmore swoon?....did Phillies lay out the blueprint on how to pitch to him Did he learn from it?
Youkilis $17 (can you say career year....but he did change his philosophy, hard to pass on a middle of the order guy in that lineup for that salary) I'd say disciplined hitter that will go for more if you send him back - considering he has 1B/3B eligibility
Shoppach $2 (lots of pop but K:AB too high and BABIP unsustainable)I think you have to consider if the lineup he's in stays healthy, he goes for WELL more that 2 units on a throwback - hell, he's double digits .... want to send him back as a grenade with the pin already pulled?
James Shields $7 but has to be signed....figure 1 yr at $12 (would be nice to slot him as my #2 at that salary) 12 unit arm of this quality in AL only? Can't pass this up.


Crisp $1 (has a starting gig and thus cheap 20+ steals)Not yet he dosen't - something has to be done with either Teahen or DeJesus first
Choo $1 (good shot at starting gig?....looked good in 2nd half) I hear the ROK army calling for a two year gig
David Murphy $6 (will hit in that lineup...probably worth $15-$18)
Devine $3 (penciled in as co-closer and was unhitable in 2nd half...some injury concern)Ziggy has as much chance of getting the job as he does - again, off season column filler doesn't necessarily translate well into real world siutations



Balfour $1 (probably not.....unless he is THE closer) Agreed
Baker $6 (nice growth and Twinkie pitcher's underrated as a group....figure he'll go for $12-$16)The situation with all Twin players changed significantly yesterday - you may have to wait to see how ownership winds up here before making a call based on last year - go no further than the Yankee saga as a precedent
Sherrill $1 has to be signed (don't think his shoulder will hold up plus Ray is in the wings)Agreed

[Todd Zola]

I have Kinsler signed at $13 thru 2009.
Which additional five would you protect from the following (I've already run thru 6 different scenarios).....

Alexi Ramirez $1 (a no brainer IMO) AGREED, 2
Longoria $19 (sophmore swoon?....did Phillies lay out the blueprint on how to pitch to him) He'll be fine, 3
Youkilis $17 (can you say career year....but he did change his philosophy, hard to pass on a
middle of the order guy in that lineup for that salary) Might not repeat but the power spike was real, 4
Shoppach $2 (lots of pop but K:AB too high and BABIP unsustainable)
Crisp $1 (has a starting gig and thus cheap 20+ steals) No brainer and more profit than Markakis as discussed in your trade, 5
Choo $1 (good shot at starting gig?....looked good in 2nd half)
David Murphy $6 (will hit in that lineup...probably worth $15-$18)
Devine $3 (penciled in as co-closer and was unhitable in 2nd half...some injury concern)
James Shields $7 but has to be signed....figure 1 yr at $12 (would be nice to slot him as my
#2 at that salary) In 5x5, he's a #1, 6
Baker $6 (nice growth and Twinkie pitcher's underrated as a group....figure he'll go for
$12-$16)
Balfour $1 (probably not.....unless he is THE closer)
Sherrill $1 has to be signed (don't think his shoulder will hold up plus Ray is in the wings)

Definitely some nice choices left off, can likely find 10-12, but those are my top-6. I'm of the opinion you keep very good players at good prices as opposed to good players at great prices.

[Todd Zola]

Crisp $1 (has a starting gig and thus cheap 20+ steals)Not yet he dosen't - something has to be done with either Teahen or DeJesus first

For all intents and purpose (am I the only one the grew up thinking it was intensive purposes?), Crisp is the starting CF and will hit lead off. If for some reason, All 3 of Teahen, Guillen and Dejesus are on the roster opening day, and the rest plays out as expected (Butler DH, Gordon 3B, Jacobs 1B), then I feel Crisp is not going to be "the odd man out".

[CubFan]

Thanks Todd and kid for replying so fast. Since I live in KC I get to read and listen via talk radio to quite a bit of Royal's stuff. Granted it may be slanted at times. Moore and Hillman are on record that barring injury Crisp will leadoff and start in CF. Moore said he didn't add Crisp's $5 million to be a part-time player. He convinced himself that he couldn't get that kind of production via the FA market so he made the trade. He's the starter unless he shows he can't do it. Moore and Hillman are also on record that they like the idea of Teahan being a super-sub. Personally Crisp's OBP is not suited for leadoff but KC has shown a disdain for OBP by who they throw out there. So, I figure a .275-8-45-25 season is doable. He'd go for $15-$19 at auction.

Shoppach...yes he will likely go for double digits if thrown in the draft. Given my other choices probably a grenade for the rest of the league.

Choo.....yeah I read that about the ROK tour. But I recall it would not start until 2010 or 2011 so I'd get a year of .280-15-70-10 if he starts for $1. Then again would Cleveland give him a starting gig knowing he'd be gone in a year? Trading Guitierrez gave him his shot and they didn't bring anyone else in.

Devine......just get a feeling that he's gonna be the guy. Ziggy is no Quisenberry. A nice story but I think the league figures him out the second time around. But it wouldn't surprise me if the A's go with a 2-person committee.

My initial thoughts were Kinsler, Ramirez, Crisp, Longoria and Shields. Torn between Choo, Youk and Devine for #6. Too bad we can't keep 10 like we used to.

[da_big_kid_94]

Crisp $1 (has a starting gig and thus cheap 20+ steals)Not yet he dosen't - something has to be done with either Teahen or DeJesus first

For all intents and purpose (am I the only one the grew up thinking it was intensive purposes?), Crisp is the starting CF and will hit lead off. If for some reason, All 3 of Teahen, Guillen and Dejesus are on the roster opening day, and the rest plays out as expected (Butler DH, Gordon 3B, Jacobs 1B), then I feel Crisp is not going to be "the odd man out".

I can appreciate this line of thinking. I also know that ole Covelli has initially been a diamond in three other previous stops and reversed engineered himself into a piece of carbon in each of those stops. Also, this is KC we're talking about - where acumen would be king if they could find some.

[da_big_kid_94]

Shoppach...yes he will likely go for double digits if thrown in the draft. Given my other choices probably a grenade for the rest of the league.

Choo.....yeah I read that about the ROK tour. But I recall it would not start until 2010 or 2011 so I'd get a year of .280-15-70-10 if he starts for $1. Then again would Cleveland give him a starting gig knowing he'd be gone in a year? Trading Guitierrez gave him his shot and they didn't bring anyone else in. I'd be worried about the mental state of a yet to be proven guy who knows a two year stretch is looming large in front of him

Devine......just get a feeling that he's gonna be the guy. Ziggy is no Quisenberry. A nice story but I think the league figures him out the second time around. But it wouldn't surprise me if the A's go with a 2-person committee. Hunches are sometimes what this game is all about - but I'd feel a lot more comfortable if he had actually had some prior success as a closer.

My initial thoughts were Kinsler, Ramirez, Crisp, Longoria and Shields. Torn between Choo, Youk and Devine for #6. Too bad we can't keep 10 like we used to.

If those are your choices, I think it has to be Youklis.

[Todd Zola]

I agree with Kid -- Youkilis is proven, Devine does not definitely have the job and is a closer in 5x5 so not a TOP priority, especially in a keeper league where you can more than likely deal for the $30 closer on a non-competing team.

With Choo, the $1 salary is often a trap. As strange as this may seem, I think you have a better chance of finding another OF to be Choo's equivalent for $1-$3 than you do getting someone Youk's equivalent for his price.

As for the whole KC Mindset Kid, we both have been doing this for awhile -- trying to read the minds of front office types. I made the personal decision that I am not a very good mind-reader, so I most often go with the most logical or common sense in my mind. I have found that more often that not, it serves the purpose. Of course, people only remember the "than not"

[da_big_kid_94]

As for the whole KC Mindset Kid, we both have been doing this for awhile -- trying to read the minds of front office types. I made the personal decision that I am not a very good mind-reader, so I most often go with the most logical or common sense in my mind. I have found that more often that not, it serves the purpose. Of course, people only remember the "than not"

I can not necessarily fault that logic, Todd. I take the position of the one who is doomed to repeat history for failure to initially heed it. Three years ago, it was Sweeney, Pickering and Harvey - the same three players for one position. Now it is Gload, Jacobs and Shealy. Two years ago, they gave a two year deal to Grudzy at the expense of some of the younger players. Last year, they successfully overpaid for Guillen. I just go by what I see displayed and wonder exactly when their moment of clarity might appear. Edit: and HOW could I forget their savvy acquisition of Kyle Farnsworth!?!?