Need help please

[rotodog]

Guys,

I have a theory on the bidding process during an auction draft. Something I have always employed myself in an auction and I need some information if anyone can help me out. I need Auction draft results (prices paid for players) for any NON KEEPER LEAGUE.

This information can be :

From past years or current year

In Excel spread sheet or any other file

From any type of Auction. 5x5, 4x4, 7x7 100x100 NL AL MIXED Whatever..I just need the results

Needs to be NON KEEPER LEAGUES. I need realized auction prices without keepers to skew the data.

If anyone has any info to help me out, PM me.

Once I get enough data, i will run the numbers and share the outcome with everyone here. It should be useful to all Auction Players....

Thanks in advance guys.

Rotodog

[Todd Zola]

Go to www.toutwars.com for the 2008 results, I may be able to dig up previous seasons.

If you want to put it to paper, we can post it.

So long as it isn't looking at the number of $1-$3 players drafted versus those projected, that's my baby

[rotodog]

Go to http://www.toutwars.com for the 2008 results, I may be able to dig up previous seasons.

If you want to put it to paper, we can post it.

So long as it isn't looking at the number of $1-$3 players drafted versus those projected, that's my baby

Ha... I was looking at more realized auction prices.. Odd, Even, Bidding barriers and the like. I did go to tout wars and tries to copy and paste the data in excel, but It didnt paste properly.

What I am looking into is percentage of Odd bids and Even dollar bids. With and with out the $1 dollar bids. Barrier Bids.

I also want to look at the most popular price points in the single digits, teens, twenties... See where the barriers are.

I am getting at a draft auction bidding strategy piece .

So, your 1-3 dollar player piece is safe....

[Todd Zola]

"Bidding to the nines" is a pet strategy of mine, that is a big barrier. Actually, I like jump-bidding to the nines...

11
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19

sold to Zola for 19

You get the double whammy of the 9 barrier and the jump bid. People often use the counting by 1s to think. Take away their thinking time, and they usually pass.

[Todd Zola]

As for the pasting of the Tout Wars stuff into Excel, use paste special - text. Or PM me an e-mail address and I can send you the 3 leagues.

[rotodog]

"Bidding to the nines" is a pet strategy of mine, that is a big barrier. Actually, I like jump-bidding to the nines...

11
12
13
14
15
19

sold to Zola for 19

You get the double whammy of the 9 barrier and the jump bid. People often use the counting by 1s to think. Take away their thinking time, and they usually pass.

One of my favorites too except I like to bid to the 0 ..

But I always felt any jump bid is a good bid as it disrupts the flow. Take a potential player that will go anywhere from 8-12 bucks.

Bidder: 6
Me: 9

In this situation, I will make the other guy turn the corner and make him a 10 dollar player. Usually a player that i could roster but I am indifferent to. usually just enforcing a little bit and would roster him if I landed him at 9...

ME: 6
Bidder: 7
Me: 10 with a smirk and a dead stare

In this situation I wanted to be the guy that made him a 10 dollar player essentially saying He's a 10 $ player and I dare you to bid more...

Its usually a player I want more than the first example or a player with a projection that allows for upside potential still.

In both situations we have a player worth the same, but the jump bid just screws up the nice flow of incremental bidding and forces others to make a decision quickly about the perception of the player...If you pay 9 bucks or 12 bucks for a player doesn't matter much in the scheme of things...

[viper]

I'm new to auctions drafts - just entering my 4th year. A jump bid not only makes the person you are bidding against pause for reflection but it tends to remove outside competition who have kept quiet waiting for the auction to stall. They are looking for a bargain and can easily evaluate those $1 increments. The jump bid causes problems in their analysis processing unless they had a set amount they were willing to bid prior to the jump.

[rotodog]

I'm new to auctions drafts - just entering my 4th year. A jump bid not only makes the person you are bidding against pause for reflection but it tends to remove outside competition who have kept quiet waiting for the auction to stall. They are looking for a bargain and can easily evaluate those $1 increments. The jump bid causes problems in their analysis processing unless they had a set amount they were willing to bid prior to the jump.

I love jump bidding..What I am essentially looking for is evidence that certain prices a bigger barriers than others and incorporate jump bidding with that info...

So in my other post using just 2008 NL and AL data from tout wars, the sample is small and would love it if anyone had any results from other non keeper leagues in the past.... Still looking!

[roche]

I have the opposite view of jump bidding. You could have had the same guy for $7 but since you bid $9-10, you've just wasted money. Since everyone's bidding from a different set of values, how can you know for sure that all of the other teams won't stop at $7?
I only jump bid to save time during an auction (start ARod at $30 so that we don't waste time).

The auction is too long and too complex to try and play psych games. You may psych out one or two teams with your tactics but the rest of the owners are sitting back and are unaffected. In fact, they are also reaping the same benefit from your tactics without doing any work. In an auction, I'm not playing against 1 other team. I have 11 opps. The enemy of my enemy is not my friend here. I need to beat all of these teams.

[rotodog]

I have the opposite view of jump bidding. You could have had the same guy for $7 but since you bid $9-10, you've just wasted money. Since everyone's bidding from a different set of values, how can you know for sure that all of the other teams won't stop at $7?
I only jump bid to save time during an auction (start ARod at $30 so that we don't waste time).

The auction is too long and too complex to try and play psych games. You may psych out one or two teams with your tactics but the rest of the owners are sitting back and are unaffected. In fact, they are also reaping the same benefit from your tactics without doing any work. In an auction, I'm not playing against 1 other team. I have 11 opps. The enemy of my enemy is not my friend here. I need to beat all of these teams.

Once a gain, your right. But the individual owner part of that post was tongue in cheek...Not something that is all that useful.

But I will disagree about jump bidding. I dont view it as wasting 2 extra dollars many times. But if a guy says 7, you can say 8 or you can say 9. If you say 8, and he says 9 than you to go 10 and possibly paid $1 more than if you went straight to 9 from the seven and forced him to make him a 10 dollar player....it disrupts the whole flow and works as often as it doesnt.....But when it doesnt work, let the guy go by....Take what the draft gives you and if your 9 dollar player goes for 14 bucks, let em go.....

But the stuff does work...And it also possible to disrupt a whole draft in a fun way that affects values. Pushes prices up etc....

[roche]

But when it doesnt work, let the guy go by....Take what the draft gives you and if your 9 dollar player goes for 14 bucks, let em go.....

Actually, what I'm saying is that the downside of doing jump bidding is that you end up overpaying for players.
In an auction, I'm scratching all day to save a dollar here, a dollar there because that extra dollar is going to be crucial in the end game. Jump bidding means that once in a while you will waste a dollar. Example, bid is 7, you can bid 8 but decide to bid 9. Crickets. You win the player. How do you know that 8 wasn't enough? If 8 was enough, then you've just wasted a buck here. Do it enough times and for sure, this scenario will come true. The potential downside of wasting a buck once in a while is why I don't bother with this.
I do it for fun sometimes if I'm bidding against a buddy. I'll jump bid and tell him that I'm jump bidding and I tell him that I really want the guy just to mess with him. Maybe our friendship willl make him double-clutch. So far, it has not worked once. LOL. I've really got no friends at the auction.

[rotodog]

But when it doesnt work, let the guy go by....Take what the draft gives you and if your 9 dollar player goes for 14 bucks, let em go.....

Actually, what I'm saying is that the downside of doing jump bidding is that you end up overpaying for players.
In an auction, I'm scratching all day to save a dollar here, a dollar there because that extra dollar is going to be crucial in the end game. Jump bidding means that once in a while you will waste a dollar. Example, bid is 7, you can bid 8 but decide to bid 9. Crickets. You win the player. How do you know that 8 wasn't enough? If 8 was enough, then you've just wasted a buck here. Do it enough times and for sure, this scenario will come true. The potential downside of wasting a buck once in a while is why I don't bother with this.
I do it for fun sometimes if I'm bidding against a buddy. I'll jump bid and tell him that I'm jump bidding and I tell him that I really want the guy just to mess with him. Maybe our friendship willl make him double-clutch. So far, it has not worked once. LOL. I've really got no friends at the auction.

i have no friends either.. but the dollar you waste once, you can save in another instance as described in my previous post. In the end, it may be a wash but you still win because you were able to roster the players you WANT as opposed to a few that are there by circumstance....or because one was simply price enforcing....

Potato potawto.....

[cwk1963]

But when it doesnt work, let the guy go by....Take what the draft gives you and if your 9 dollar player goes for 14 bucks, let em go.....

Actually, what I'm saying is that the downside of doing jump bidding is that you end up overpaying for players.
In an auction, I'm scratching all day to save a dollar here, a dollar there because that extra dollar is going to be crucial in the end game. Jump bidding means that once in a while you will waste a dollar. Example, bid is 7, you can bid 8 but decide to bid 9. Crickets. You win the player. How do you know that 8 wasn't enough? If 8 was enough, then you've just wasted a buck here. Do it enough times and for sure, this scenario will come true. The potential downside of wasting a buck once in a while is why I don't bother with this.
I do it for fun sometimes if I'm bidding against a buddy. I'll jump bid and tell him that I'm jump bidding and I tell him that I really want the guy just to mess with him. Maybe our friendship willl make him double-clutch. So far, it has not worked once. LOL. I've really got no friends at the auction.

But the thing is you only jump bid with someone you want and you don't jump over what you think their value is. The second part is you get the psychological barriers in place. Take, for instance, Torii Hunter. If you value him at $21 and the current bid is $14, you don't jump to $22. You jump to $19. You're willing to pay $19 because you have him valued at $21. If you make the jump and someone goes to $20, you still have room to get him at value by saying $21. If you say $19 and there's crickets, you don't mind because you were targeting him anyway and just got him at a $2 discount as opposed to a $1 overpay. In this day and age, there are not significant differences in what players are valued at. If Torii's value for you is $21 you know everyone else is within a buck or two. You don't jump bid on everyone. At least I don't. I do it for guys that I wouldn't mind paying the price on (even if you think I lost $1 in the process) or guys that I really want and I may end up going over value to roster them. It has to be varied so people don't get a read on you. I can read the room pretty good and can tell if someone has a woody for a particular player and will pay just about anything to get them. I'll jump bid that guy knowing the opposition will go higher no matter what. This works especially well for category specific players - closers, SB guys in particular. If I see by the standings that someone is down in the rankings with SB and there's only a couple reliable SB players left, by all means I jump bid them even if I don't want them because I know, without a doubt, someone low on steals will bid higher. Again, this may only be league specific but I think there's a greater chance something like this is more predominant.

EDIT

Example, bid is 7, you can bid 8 but decide to bid 9. Crickets. You win the player. How do you know that 8 wasn't enough? If 8 was enough, then you've just wasted a buck here.

On the other hand, if you go 8 and the other guy goes 9 now you have to go to 10 to get the player and you've wasted the same dollar that you said you had to save for the end game. In reality, you have no idea how many times this would have happened instead of jumping the bid and buying the player at the jump bid.

[rotodog]

You nailed what I failed to say C-Dub....

I am only bidding on what i want and many times Jump bidding can save a buck or two as opposed to overpaying a buck. And if you do over a buck once or twice, will that value change much of your strategy at all?

Thanks for helping me clarify my point.....

[cwk1963]

You nailed what I failed to say C-Dub....

I am only bidding on what i want and many times Jump bidding can save a buck or two as opposed to overpaying a buck. And if you do over a buck once or twice, will that value change much of your strategy at all?

Thanks for helping me clarify my point.....

We're all here for each other. Sometimes I help you, sometimes you help me. And Lord knows, sometimes I really need help .

[roche]

Take, for instance, Torii Hunter. If you value him at $21 and the current bid is $14, you don't jump to $22. You jump to $19. You're willing to pay $19 because you have him valued at $21.

My point is how do you know that $18 wouldn't get you Hunter? I understand that Hunter at $19 is still a $2 bargain with your projections. Wouldn't it be better to get Hunter at $18 for a $3 profit? What about $17? The last thing I want to hear is crickets after I jump bid because the possibility exists that I've overpaid. Why would you want to pass up extra profits?
I totally discount the psych terror tactics of jump bidding. Everyone and I mean absolutely everyone at the auction has a list of prices. I haven't been to an auction in many years where anyone was bidding off the top of their head. With a list in front of each of us, we all know exactly the price of each player. I'm not letting a bargain go in the auction because you jump bid.

[Todd Zola]

Take, for instance, Torii Hunter. If you value him at $21 and the current bid is $14, you don't jump to $22. You jump to $19. You're willing to pay $19 because you have him valued at $21.

My point is how do you know that $18 wouldn't get you Hunter? I understand that Hunter at $19 is still a $2 bargain with your projections. Wouldn't it be better to get Hunter at $18 for a $3 profit? What about $17? The last thing I want to hear is crickets after I jump bid because the possibility exists that I've overpaid. Why would you want to pass up extra profits?
I totally discount the psych terror tactics of jump bidding. Everyone and I mean absolutely everyone at the auction has a list of prices. I haven't been to an auction in many years where anyone was bidding off the top of their head. With a list in front of each of us, we all know exactly the price of each player. I'm not letting a bargain go in the auction because you jump bid.

It is most certainly been my experience that jump bidding is a viable tactic - the reason I know this is after every auction, someone comes up to me and points out a player I won with a jump bid and they tell me that they wish they had gone more. We've had numerous other threads describing how values for most are just a guide. Just because the list in front of you has a number higher than where the bidding is stopped, that does not mean everyone that has a higher number goes +1 all at once. There are tons of reasons why that doesn't happen.

What I have found is often, people use the time the bid is crawling up by 1s to think how high they want to go. Heck, sometimes they use the time to find the player and the jump takes away that time, so by the time they find him, the auctioneer is on going twice and they pass.

With jump bidding, I figure I end up ahead as the amount I save by having people pass thus getting the player cheaper surpasses the amount I could have had the player for cheaper.

Again, this is MY EXPERIENCE. Timing is everything. There are certain players or types of players this works best. It usually works best when it disrupts an auction in a steady flow.

[cwk1963]

Take, for instance, Torii Hunter. If you value him at $21 and the current bid is $14, you don't jump to $22. You jump to $19. You're willing to pay $19 because you have him valued at $21.

My point is how do you know that $18 wouldn't get you Hunter? I understand that Hunter at $19 is still a $2 bargain with your projections. Wouldn't it be better to get Hunter at $18 for a $3 profit? What about $17? The last thing I want to hear is crickets after I jump bid because the possibility exists that I've overpaid. Why would you want to pass up extra profits?
I totally discount the psych terror tactics of jump bidding. Everyone and I mean absolutely everyone at the auction has a list of prices. I haven't been to an auction in many years where anyone was bidding off the top of their head. With a list in front of each of us, we all know exactly the price of each player. I'm not letting a bargain go in the auction because you jump bid.

I disagree. I've seen it work many times. I've had it work personally for me quite a few times. I'm not saying it works every time but enough that it's a good tactic to employ. I've had instances where I jump bid and had someone say to me during the break or after the auction that they had the impression I really wanted that player and would bid anything. So the psychological effect wasn't actually the barrier but their impression it was futile to bid that player with me. We have the luxury right now of hindsight. During the auction, no one has that luxury. Things just go too fast and people sometimes can't process the information quickly enough. Sometimes people just freeze. How many times have you seen someone bid just a split second after the gavel has fallen? You just need to create that hesitation in people for a few short seconds to have jump bidding work. And there's no doubt in my mind it does work.

[viper]

not jumping the bid because you feel maybe you could get him for less seems like a defensive tactic. If you are that type of bidder, then continue of that way. Jump bidding seems to be an offensive move. It can backfire if you jump to far. In the end, you have to bid the way you feel most comfortable. I have become an offensive type. I jump players to about their levels right away when studs are offered for painfully low amounts even if i am not interested. In those cases, i make the jump small enough that I would be happy to be stuck. If I show Pujols at $42 and I want him, I may jump that initial $10 bid to $35 right away. My next bid may very well be $40 depending on the hesitation from the competition.

[cwk1963]

Take, for instance, Torii Hunter. If you value him at $21 and the current bid is $14, you don't jump to $22. You jump to $19. You're willing to pay $19 because you have him valued at $21.

My point is how do you know that $18 wouldn't get you Hunter? I understand that Hunter at $19 is still a $2 bargain with your projections. Wouldn't it be better to get Hunter at $18 for a $3 profit? What about $17? The last thing I want to hear is crickets after I jump bid because the possibility exists that I've overpaid. Why would you want to pass up extra profits?
I totally discount the psych terror tactics of jump bidding. Everyone and I mean absolutely everyone at the auction has a list of prices. I haven't been to an auction in many years where anyone was bidding off the top of their head. With a list in front of each of us, we all know exactly the price of each player. I'm not letting a bargain go in the auction because you jump bid.

It is most certainly been my experience that jump bidding is a viable tactic - the reason I know this is after every auction, someone comes up to me and points out a player I won with a jump bid and they tell me that they wish they had gone more. We've had numerous other threads describing how values for most are just a guide. Just because the list in front of you has a number higher than where the bidding is stopped, that does not mean everyone that has a higher number goes +1 all at once. There are tons of reasons why that doesn't happen.

What I have found is often, people use the time the bid is crawling up by 1s to think how high they want to go. Heck, sometimes they use the time to find the player and the jump takes away that time, so by the time they find him, the auctioneer is on going twice and they pass.

With jump bidding, I figure I end up ahead as the amount I save by having people pass thus getting the player cheaper surpasses the amount I could have had the player for cheaper.

Again, this is MY EXPERIENCE. Timing is everything. There are certain players or types of players this works best. It usually works best when it disrupts an auction in a steady flow.

I've been on the side of wishing I'd gone the extra dollar myself at times. So I know it works from both sides. Fortunately, more so on the jumper side.

[Tig]

Ive been using the 4 or 9 bid for years and everytime the auction starts the first bid I throw out is 9 and everyone knows it coming, but laughs anyways. There is definitely something about the 5 or 0 # that makes people think. Whether it be throwing off the rhythm or thinking that # takes you in the next "tier" or "bracket" of prices. I betcha half my winning bids over the last 5 years have been at $9, $14, or $19.

[roche]

the reason I know this is after every auction, someone comes up to me and points out a player I won with a jump bid and they tell me that they wish they had gone more

Mind you, has anyone ever come up to say "you made a mistake by jump bidding, you paid too much for him"? That sort of comment is just not said in public. Most of us keep that sort of comment to ourselves. We may think it but we won't say it. Besides, with projections being not close to 100% accurate, who can say right after the auction that they paid too much or too little.
There is something to putting people under pressure at the auction. People make mistakes under stress so it's not a bad tactic. However, I will reiterate my point that I'm not just playing against the owners who fold under pressure. I'm also playing against the other cool and collected guys. I don't want to risk making the mistake of overbidding with jump bidding.

not jumping the bid because you feel maybe you could get him for less seems like a defensive tactic. If you are that type of bidder, then continue of that way. Jump bidding seems to be an offensive move.

My view of an auction is that it's an event filled with mistakes. The teams that make the fewer blunders win. Every auction where I've walked away thinking that I've made mistakes has turned out to be disastrous. Auctions where I'm happy with all of my buys are always wins. I guess you can call it defensive. I'm focused solely on my performance at the auction because I know that if I don't make mistakes, I will win. I choose not to spend my concentration and effort on making other owners make a mistake. The risk of playing psych games with others is that you will make a few more mistakes yourself and that is disastrous because one of the cool and collected owners who sits out these games (like me) will benefit.

[cwk1963]

the reason I know this is after every auction, someone comes up to me and points out a player I won with a jump bid and they tell me that they wish they had gone more

Mind you, has anyone ever come up to say "you made a mistake by jump bidding, you paid too much for him"? That sort of comment is just not said in public. Most of us keep that sort of comment to ourselves. We may think it but we won't say it. Besides, with projections being not close to 100% accurate, who can say right after the auction that they paid too much or too little.
There is something to putting people under pressure at the auction. People make mistakes under stress so it's not a bad tactic. However, I will reiterate my point that I'm not just playing against the owners who fold under pressure. I'm also playing against the other cool and collected guys. I don't want to risk making the mistake of overbidding with jump bidding.

not jumping the bid because you feel maybe you could get him for less seems like a defensive tactic. If you are that type of bidder, then continue of that way. Jump bidding seems to be an offensive move.

My view of an auction is that it's an event filled with mistakes. The teams that make the fewer blunders win. Every auction where I've walked away thinking that I've made mistakes has turned out to be disastrous. Auctions where I'm happy with all of my buys are always wins. I guess you can call it defensive. I'm focused solely on my performance at the auction because I know that if I don't make mistakes, I will win. I choose not to spend my concentration and effort on making other owners make a mistake. The risk of playing psych games with others is that you will make a few more mistakes yourself and that is disastrous because one of the cool and collected owners who sits out these games (like me) will benefit.

Not me. I say it all the time and even right after someone has bought a player - whether it was a jump bid or not. Again, it's all part of the mind game. I've even said it when I've had no interest in the player and wasn't in the bidding or even if I think it was a good buy. No one knows what I'm actually thinking. It's all part of keeping them off balance. It helps that I'm at the top of the league year after year so other owners treat it with a certain amount of credibility.

[Todd Zola]

Mind you, has anyone ever come up to say "you made a mistake by jump bidding, you paid too much for him"? That sort of comment is just not said in public. Most of us keep that sort of comment to ourselves. We may think it but we won't say it. Besides, with projections being not close to 100% accurate, who can say right after the auction that they paid too much or too little.
There is something to putting people under pressure at the auction. People make mistakes under stress so it's not a bad tactic. However, I will reiterate my point that I'm not just playing against the owners who fold under pressure. I'm also playing against the other cool and collected guys. I don't want to risk making the mistake of overbidding with jump bidding.

There isn't a right or wrong. I'm not wrong for doing it because you think I may have gotten a guy for less than the jump and you are not wrong for not trying it in your auctions. The majority of time I do it, the bid keeps going up. I make a note and try to figure out why it worked and see if I can make it work again. It works best on players with which there is some question and especially if there is a reason not to spend more like if you are waiting for another player.

While the analogy is not perfect, some argue never to price enforce as you can get caught upping a player and being stuck with him. I am willing to bet a whole lot more people price enforce than jump bid. Which is worse, having to roster a player you don't want or paying an extra buck or two for a guy you do want? And if you are price enforcing on a guy "you really wouldn't mind having anyway", you really aren't price enforcing.

[rotodog]

Mind you, has anyone ever come up to say "you made a mistake by jump bidding, you paid too much for him"? That sort of comment is just not said in public. Most of us keep that sort of comment to ourselves. We may think it but we won't say it. Besides, with projections being not close to 100% accurate, who can say right after the auction that they paid too much or too little.
There is something to putting people under pressure at the auction. People make mistakes under stress so it's not a bad tactic. However, I will reiterate my point that I'm not just playing against the owners who fold under pressure. I'm also playing against the other cool and collected guys. I don't want to risk making the mistake of overbidding with jump bidding.

While the analogy is not perfect, some argue never to price enforce as you can get caught upping a player and being stuck with him. I am willing to bet a whole lot more people price enforce than jump bid. Which is worse, having to roster a player you don't want or paying an extra buck or two for a guy you do want? And if you are price enforcing on a guy "you really wouldn't mind having anyway", you really aren't price enforcing.

My point exactly in this thread... Jump bidding and disruption helps insure you get the player you want instead of stuck with a player by circumstance........its just s solid tactic, but if it isnt done properly, it can backfire. I am not advocating having a 22 dollar player on paper and taking a 11 dollar bid to 21...But as its going to 14, 15 I am throwing out a 17 to see if it stops! if not, I have the 19 to stop it.... and after all that fails, I still have the 21 on my $22 player that I thought could be a little undervalued.... Thats the context I talking in Roche.....

I get the impression we are advocting jumping most bids up to and after value is reached and thats not the case....

Take Milton bradley this year...In NL leagues I am seeing him go fairly cheap because people are factoring risk in there.....I feel ahead of time he could be the perfect player to snag for 17 or 18 bucks by jump bidding and taking the rhythm out of the auction.....if he gets to 23, i will let others push his price up....But thats the type of player and situation the tactic can work....

[roche]

Take Milton bradley this year...In NL leagues I am seeing him go fairly cheap because people are factoring risk in there.....I feel ahead of time he could be the perfect player to snag for 17 or 18 bucks by jump bidding and taking the rhythm out of the auction.....if he gets to 23, i will let others push his price up....But thats the type of player and situation the tactic can work....

It's funny but Bradley is the exact player that I would avoid jump bidding with. Because of the long-as-your-arm injury risk, his price is going to be all over the place. No one has a firm handle on his "correct" price. His earned values for the last 4 years have been $12, $11, $10, $26. Which one of these don't fit? I'm dropping out of the bidding at $12 here. So if I have him at $12 and you jump to $18 and get crickets, I'm all happy that you may have overpaid for him. If someone jumps to $23, I'm even happier. If the auction was just between us, $13 would get him. You don't need to bid $18 and waste $5. That has been my point all along.

[Todd Zola]

I agree that Bradley is not someone I would choose. The guys I like are those that I have a good feeling about that may not be universally shared. As an extreme, if the news about Reyes or Hanley hitting 3rd has people a little gun-shy, and I was not concerned, I might do a jump from the high 20s to 34 or so, then when 35 hits, jump to 39 or 40. High end guy are not the best examples though. The word is out, we like Kemp. He might be a good guy for me to try it with. If you think Holliday will do fine in the AL, he's a good target.

If you want a top-closer, sometimes jump-bidding the 1st one gets a sale, and you find that better ones go for more later.

If I can think or more names, I will share.

Again, these are good for my way of attacking auctions, which at this point are primarily the high stakes auctions at the NFBC and LABR/Tout.

[roche]

primarily the high stakes auctions at the NFBC and LABR/Tout.

To go off on a complete tangent from our topic, are there any prizes/stakes for LABR/Tout now? Previously, I understand that it was just for bragging rights which made it a one-winner-takes-all contest. There's no bragging rights for 4th place (or even for 2nd). I've always thought that this made these auctions somewhat unrealistic since that is not how the rest of the roto world play the game. To win a winner-takes-all league, I would necessarily choose a more extreme strategy to increase my chance of winning and I wouldn't care if I flamed out. In the usual money leagues, the consolation prizes of being in the money is well-worth playing for. Maybe the LABR/Tout participants should throw into the pot "to make it worth everyone's while". Of course, maybe this is already being done and just kept secret from us, the little people.

[alleyoops]

I'll add some support for Roche's point of view here, since I agree with it, and he seems to be in the minority. When jump bidding "works", how do you know it worked? Guys always say they wish they'd bid more for somebody after the draft - jump or not. My guess is that you know it worked because it feels good to you to feel like you've gotten away with something. Nothing wrong with that, and that positive self-image is a whole lot better than beating yourself up during the auction. But that doesn't mean you couldn't have got the guy for the same price, or less, by bidding incrementally.

I have the same view on price-enforcing. It's not a very bright thing to do, unless you really do want the guy at that price. In a lot of cases you may be costing the other owner a couple of bucks, but do you know that you did? Maybe somebody else was ready to bid when you did. And even if you did cost him a few bucks, is that benefit worth the risk of winding up with a guy who you don't want, at a price you don't want?

And I wonder how often the first closer looks cheap, relative to some others, even when there wasn't jump bidding? I think that happens pretty often. Same thing with the first player auctioned.

[viper]

I am only participating in money leagues these days. Nothing big as my $250 NFBC satellite has the highest buy-in. However, I don't see why the Tout Wars should have any money involved. I won't even say that winning this league is all that matters. Winning a league is somewhat of a crap-shoot. I suspect that several in this league use it to try new ideas. They play their best but if their idea is flawed, they can find out in this league where competition is good. Anything can work in a 10-team yahoo public league.

[da_big_kid_94]

My point exactly in this thread... Jump bidding and disruption helps insure you get the player you want instead of stuck with a player by circumstance........its just s solid tactic, but if it isnt done properly, it can backfire.

Another very interesting statement - one that begs the question - has anyone had any experience jump bidding on a player they DIDN'T want. And if you did ... did you wind up with him?

See, to me, the basic problem with jump bidding is that you just telegraphed your intentions (for the most part) to the rest of the table? I mean there are guys you CAN jump bid like ARod or Pujols to get the bidding pointing upward... but let's face it ...they're going to be a very big number anyway. I'm talking about the less than top echelon player who you wind up jump bidding for. Anyone want to chime in?

Edit - I should make one exception to this - when dollar days come around at the end of an auction, it is, of course, good strategy to jump bid on a player you when want to shut out other owners who can't match your current budget. Jumping to 3 units from 1 on a player you want when no one can say 4 is an excellent reason to jump bid.

[rotodog]

Take Milton bradley this year...In NL leagues I am seeing him go fairly cheap because people are factoring risk in there.....I feel ahead of time he could be the perfect player to snag for 17 or 18 bucks by jump bidding and taking the rhythm out of the auction.....if he gets to 23, i will let others push his price up....But thats the type of player and situation the tactic can work....

It's funny but Bradley is the exact player that I would avoid jump bidding with. Because of the long-as-your-arm injury risk, his price is going to be all over the place. No one has a firm handle on his "correct" price. His earned values for the last 4 years have been $12, $11, $10, $26. Which one of these don't fit? I'm dropping out of the bidding at $12 here. So if I have him at $12 and you jump to $18 and get crickets, I'm all happy that you may have overpaid for him. If someone jumps to $23, I'm even happier. If the auction was just between us, $13 would get him. You don't need to bid $18 and waste $5. That has been my point all along.

I was just using Bradley off the top of my head....But Uncle Milty is a guy that always gets an emotional response... The numbers I used were also just numbers from my head...I have no idea yet in a NL only league where Milty falls..

I just want folks to understand that I dont advocate Jump bidding all the time....In certain points of the draft on certain players. I dont jump to enforce. If you are enforcing, you want the rhythmit one dollar bids to slowly push the price up..

I dont think you should Jump a bid from 12- 20 bucks either....2-3 bucks most, to simply take the flow out and .....and on a player you want...And at under projected value....Thats it...

[rotodog]

I'll add some support for Roche's point of view here, since I agree with it, and he seems to be in the minority. When jump bidding "works", how do you know it worked? Guys always say they wish they'd bid more for somebody after the draft - jump or not. My guess is that you know it worked because it feels good to you to feel like you've gotten away with something. Nothing wrong with that, and that positive self-image is a whole lot better than beating yourself up during the auction. But that doesn't mean you couldn't have got the guy for the same price, or less, by bidding incrementally.

I have the same view on price-enforcing. It's not a very bright thing to do, unless you really do want the guy at that price. In a lot of cases you may be costing the other owner a couple of bucks, but do you know that you did? Maybe somebody else was ready to bid when you did. And even if you did cost him a few bucks, is that benefit worth the risk of winding up with a guy who you don't want, at a price you don't want?

And I wonder how often the first closer looks cheap, relative to some others, even when there wasn't jump bidding? I think that happens pretty often. Same thing with the first player auctioned.

I dont want to sound like a guy i am not when i answer this question, but you want to know how I know it works.....
The results speak to themselves...I win quite a bit....in Highly competitive leagues...Or I have won in the past...this is year 1 for me out of retirement....

But I have outlined in other threads how 5 owners in a 11 team NL league use Rotolab....Along with myself. But I won twice and took second the other.....HOW did that happen? We all used the same program and projections.....All have the same info etc.... its because of things like bidding practices and jump bidding that takes it the extra 10%.....

Its how I feel..

.Maybe some of you employ other tactice that work, but I like to bully a draft in a fun way...We all laugh while i do it because they know whats coming.....One owner told me he was getting out this winter until he heard I was back. he Simply is staying in because HE WANTS to BEAT ME....because he never could...I have jump Bid him, enforced him and made him laugh at the same time, but He stayed to simply beat me....
thats when you know that what you are doing is successful...Again, there are many strategies and if you are a timid type, some tactics wont work for you...You are who you are and play to your strengths....

[Todd Zola]

To go off on a complete tangent from our topic, are there any prizes/stakes for LABR/Tout now? Previously, I understand that it was just for bragging rights which made it a one-winner-takes-all contest. There's no bragging rights for 4th place (or even for 2nd). I've always thought that this made these auctions somewhat unrealistic since that is not how the rest of the roto world play the game. To win a winner-takes-all league, I would necessarily choose a more extreme strategy to increase my chance of winning and I wouldn't care if I flamed out. In the usual money leagues, the consolation prizes of being in the money is well-worth playing for. Maybe the LABR/Tout participants should throw into the pot "to make it worth everyone's while". Of course, maybe this is already being done and just kept secret from us, the little people.

A few years ago, primarily as an experiment to see how it would affect things, Tout Wars voted to have a winner-take-all league with the owners ponying up the cash, I believe it was $1000 which would have been about $80-$90 added to the fee. Some guy named Jason Grey won the AL that year. That was the only year we did it. From the experimental point of view, league business, aka trading and free agent pickups were normal. What some may not realize is Tout Wars weekend (and LABR weekend as well) is a costly personal (for some business) expense. For Tout, we rent out a conference room in a hotel in Times Square, most stay at that hotel for 2-3 nights. This doesn't include travel, bailing your car out of the garage if you drove, etc. LABR is more reasonable as there is no fee as we use a free room to draft, but you have to get to Phoenix and sleep somewhere when you do.

The primary motivation is bragging rights amongst your peers and the court of public opinion. Depending on the participant, a top-3 finish is good advertising fodder.

[Todd Zola]

I'll add some support for Roche's point of view here, since I agree with it, and he seems to be in the minority. When jump bidding "works", how do you know it worked? Guys always say they wish they'd bid more for somebody after the draft - jump or not. My guess is that you know it worked because it feels good to you to feel like you've gotten away with something. Nothing wrong with that, and that positive self-image is a whole lot better than beating yourself up during the auction. But that doesn't mean you couldn't have got the guy for the same price, or less, by bidding incrementally.

I have the same view on price-enforcing. It's not a very bright thing to do, unless you really do want the guy at that price. In a lot of cases you may be costing the other owner a couple of bucks, but do you know that you did? Maybe somebody else was ready to bid when you did. And even if you did cost him a few bucks, is that benefit worth the risk of winding up with a guy who you don't want, at a price you don't want?

And I wonder how often the first closer looks cheap, relative to some others, even when there wasn't jump bidding? I think that happens pretty often. Same thing with the first player auctioned.

Bottom line is I don't KNOW it worked. And others don't KNOW it didn't work. It is up to the person doing the tactic to use their spidey-sense to determine if it did work. I've been doing this a long time, seen a lot of reactions, talked a lot of draft post-mortems. Maybe I am being fooled, would not be the first time, but my sense is I am net positive when it comes to the ploy.

[AllstonRockCity]

I'm really enjoying this thread and find it quite informative.

See, to me, the basic problem with jump bidding is that you just telegraphed your intentions (for the most part) to the rest of the table?

Isn't this (along w/ disrupting flow, applying pressure) exactly why this tactic works?

Hopefully enough of you play poker to get this analogy. Isn't a jump bid quite similar to a check-raise? To me, when someone check-raises they are saying "hah, by checking the 1st time I've lulled you into a false sense of security, but now by raising I'm really saying, look how confident I am". You've just broadcast your intentions to the entire table, but that's exactly why its a powerful move. Granted theres no bluffing in an auction (you never want to acquire a player you have no interest in, theres no use for that) but showing strength can often be quite an effective tactic.

[rotodog]

I'm really enjoying this thread and find it quite informative.

See, to me, the basic problem with jump bidding is that you just telegraphed your intentions (for the most part) to the rest of the table?

Isn't this (along w/ disrupting flow, applying pressure) exactly why this tactic works?

Hopefully enough of you play poker to get this analogy. Isn't a jump bid quite similar to a check-raise? To me, when someone check-raises they are saying "hah, by checking the 1st time I've lulled you into a false sense of security, but now by raising I'm really saying, look how confident I am". You've just broadcast your intentions to the entire table, but that's exactly why its a powerful move. Granted theres no bluffing in an auction (you never want to acquire a player you have no interest in, theres no use for that) but showing strength can often be quite an effective tactic.

Nice analogy...And I seem to remember a few years ago that JAson Grey wrote a few pieces about Poker game theory and roto Auction now that i read this,...

Its just tactics to win...In the end, we all show up for fun, but we want to win. Show me a guy that shows up to a draft with the intention of losing and I will show you a loser....We all want to win thats why we play...

[da_big_kid_94]

I'm really enjoying this thread and find it quite informative.

See, to me, the basic problem with jump bidding is that you just telegraphed your intentions (for the most part) to the rest of the table?

Isn't this (along w/ disrupting flow, applying pressure) exactly why this tactic works?

Hopefully enough of you play poker to get this analogy. Isn't a jump bid quite similar to a check-raise? To me, when someone check-raises they are saying "hah, by checking the 1st time I've lulled you into a false sense of security, but now by raising I'm really saying, look how confident I am". You've just broadcast your intentions to the entire table, but that's exactly why its a powerful move. Granted theres no bluffing in an auction (you never want to acquire a player you have no interest in, theres no use for that) but showing strength can often be quite an effective tactic.

Not really - in poker , you check raise and it makes your opponent wonder what you really have. It's applied pressure to drop out. In an auction, when have you ever heard of someone putting in a jump bid to price enforce? You increase by single units to price enforce. By jump bidding, you're telling everyone else you want this guy but you're giving them the keys to your budget on this one. You're not encouraging them to drop, you're encouraging them to price enforce.

The poker analogy is a good one. IMHO, one poker game I will NEVER understand is 5 card draw, Jacks or Better. You open with a pair of queens ...what have you just told the table? Beat a pair of Jacks or just give me your money right now. To me, it's the same as the jump bid. You're telling everyone; "I want this guy ..enough that I'm willing to pay a premium. Please continue to drive his price up."

[Todd Zola]

My point exactly in this thread... Jump bidding and disruption helps insure you get the player you want instead of stuck with a player by circumstance........its just s solid tactic, but if it isnt done properly, it can backfire.

Another very interesting statement - one that begs the question - has anyone had any experience jump bidding on a player they DIDN'T want. And if you did ... did you wind up with him?

See, to me, the basic problem with jump bidding is that you just telegraphed your intentions (for the most part) to the rest of the table? I mean there are guys you CAN jump bid like ARod or Pujols to get the bidding pointing upward... but let's face it ...they're going to be a very big number anyway. I'm talking about the less than top echelon player who you wind up jump bidding for. Anyone want to chime in?

Edit - I should make one exception to this - when dollar days come around at the end of an auction, it is, of course, good strategy to jump bid on a player you when want to shut out other owners who can't match your current budget. Jumping to 3 units from 1 on a player you want when no one can say 4 is an excellent reason to jump bid.

This is now going to tie into the laptop versus no laptop argument. Some at the draft are like poker players in that they are looking for tells. The argument is that it is difficult to spot tells if you have your face staring at a monitor, but I digress. To help keep up the facade, I will jump bid on players I KNOW will go higher, so that I get labeled as the guy that jumps the bid. And when I win a jump bid, I don't act elated, I don't act pissed either, I look around like I expected it to go higher. You don't want to draw any extra attention to the bid, especially in my case where my opinion on every player is available if you have a spare $34.95 hanging around. Making it easier to remember my reaction makes it easier to put two and two together later when you find out I like Kemp, and my cover is blown the following year or whatever.

Now of course, the best poker players spot the most subtle of tells. In the course of an auction, if someone is able to identify that I want the middle range players that I jump, kudos. But keep in mind, very often the bidding goes higher, making it difficult to sense if I wanted the player or not.

[da_big_kid_94]

Then , of course, there was that great thread about tells back on the old boards.

[Todd Zola]

The poker analogy is a good one. IMHO, one poker game I will NEVER understand is 5 card draw, Jacks or Better. You open with a pair of queens ...what have you just told the table? Beat a pair of Jacks or just give me your money right now. To me, it's the same as the jump bid. You're telling everyone; "I want this guy ..enough that I'm willing to pay a premium. Please continue to drive his price up."

That's not what I am telling the table. I want the guy at that price, which is why the actual player is important as it needs to be someone that will force pause on many of the owners. If it keeps going up, I don't always jump in, actually I hardly ever do as my paper value for the player is usually 3 or 4 bucks higher and if the bidding continues, it goes past that before I get back in. But sometimes I will get back in -- always keep them guessing.

[da_big_kid_94]

The poker analogy is a good one. IMHO, one poker game I will NEVER understand is 5 card draw, Jacks or Better. You open with a pair of queens ...what have you just told the table? Beat a pair of Jacks or just give me your money right now. To me, it's the same as the jump bid. You're telling everyone; "I want this guy ..enough that I'm willing to pay a premium. Please continue to drive his price up."

That's not what I am telling the table. I want the guy at that price, which is why the actual player is important as it needs to be someone that will force pause on many of the owners. If it keeps going up, I don't always jump in, actually I hardly ever do as my paper value for the player is usually 3 or 4 bucks higher and if the bidding continues, it goes past that before I get back in. But sometimes I will get back in -- always keep them guessing.

No, I think it is what you're telling the table, Todd. It's the old joke about the guy who asks a woman if she'll go to bed with him for a million dollars. If she says yes, he asks how bout for ten bucks. If she comes back with what do you think I am, he just says that's been established, now we're just haggling about price. You're telling the table you want that player - at what price is a different kettle of fish.

In this case, the game now becomes what is your magic number on this guy? If it goes beyond what you were willing to pay, you don't get him. But you are telling the table that player is in your sights. Whether you actually GET him or not is another facet of the process. And it is the jump bid that gives your opponent an edge. The only way it doesn't is if, somehow, you can acquire a rep that you will jump bid a player you don't want .... and I can not see how to gain such a rep without it being counter productive.

[Todd Zola]

No, I think it is what you're telling the table, Todd. It's the old joke about the guy who asks a woman if she'll go to bed with him for a million dollars. If she says yes, he asks how bout for ten bucks. If she comes back with what do you think I am, he just says that's been established, now we're just haggling about price. You're telling the table you want that player - at what price is a different kettle of fish.

In this case, the game now becomes what is your magic number on this guy? If it goes beyond what you were willing to pay, you don't get him. But you are telling the table that player is in your sights. Whether you actually GET him or not is another facet of the process. And it is the jump bid that gives your opponent an edge. The only way it doesn't is if, somehow, you can acquire a rep that you will jump bid a player you don't want .... and I can not see how to gain such a rep without it being counter productive.

That might be what I would be telling YOU -- I know from experience that is not what I am telling the other 10 or 11 people. I just have to hope that you aren't the one that wants the guy for more.

Of course, anyone I am drafting against, especially those in the NFBC, if they were smart, would take the time to learn more about the way I do things

But the larger point is I do not want the player at any price. I want him at a few bucks under value and I think I can get him undervalue in this manner.

[rotodog]

i dont think this will ever get settled.

But whats the difference of jumping form 12 to 14 or 15 na dgoing by ones with another bidder.... Any bid you place telegraphs your move....by ones, twos or tens... if you are still bidding you telegraphed I want this player ..Simple...

By bidding in any increment you are saying, YES I will go to bed with you......We now know....But lets settle a price...
Doesnt matter if you jump 2 bucks or 3 or bid in ones....

And you do it selectively .....not all the time

[da_big_kid_94]

i dont think this will ever get settled.

But whats the difference of jumping form 12 to 14 or 15 na dgoing by ones with another bidder.... Any bid you place telegraphs your move....by ones, twos or tens... if you are still bidding you telegraphed I want this player ..Simple...

By bidding in any increment you are saying, YES I will go to bed with you......We now know....But lets settle a price...
Doesnt matter if you jump 2 bucks or 3 or bid in ones....

And you do it selectively .....not all the time

I disagree ... if I increment by one after you made a jump bid, I may also be telling you that you can have this player ... I don't particularly want him ... but you're not getting him at THAT price.

[Todd Zola]

I don't think there is anything to settle. Once you get into this element of the hobby, some things work for some people, some don't. Some things won't be effective when tried on some people, some will.

To me, the only two wrong views would be THIS WOULD ALWAYS WORK and THIS WILL NEVER WORK - hence part II of my sig.

[rotodog]

We need an auction draft in the Northeast for Mastersball....

Participants will be of varying opinions and we will play it out and discuss certain strategys and why they may work...if we had 12 new England area participants and maybe Todd thrown in there, it could be very constructive and aloow for some smack talk in good fun.... Thats how we settle these types of discusssions in Massachusetts....

[roche]

No, I think it is what you're telling the table, Todd.

But the larger point is I do not want the player at any price. I want him at a few bucks under value and I think I can get him undervalue in this manner.

The Kid's point is very astute here. It's something that hasn't occurred to me either. Jump-bidding does signal your interest in this player. You may be a disciplined owner and won't go over projections but you are clearly interested and the room now knows it. In an auction, we are not interested to roster all 276 players just the ones that we "like". What's more, logic dictates that your jump bid is below your projection (probably within $4). The room now can guess your prices every time you jump bid. This is worse if you are THE TOP DOG in the room. Everyone is already watching your bids. Now, you are telling everyone what your price is.
So in addition to the sin of overbidding (and waste), we can now add telegraphing your prices to the room all for the dubious charms of jump bidding.

[Todd Zola]

No, I think it is what you're telling the table, Todd.

But the larger point is I do not want the player at any price. I want him at a few bucks under value and I think I can get him undervalue in this manner.

The Kid's point is very astute here. It's something that hasn't occurred to me either. Jump-bidding does signal your interest in this player. You may be a disciplined owner and won't go over projections but you are clearly interested and the room now knows it. In an auction, we are not interested to roster all 276 players just the ones that we "like". What's more, logic dictates that your jump bid is below your projection (probably within $4). The room now can guess your prices every time you jump bid. This is worse if you are THE TOP DOG in the room. Everyone is already watching your bids. Now, you are telling everyone what your price is.
So in addition to the sin of overbidding (and waste), we can now add telegraphing your prices to the room all for the dubious charms of jump bidding.

Again, I will jump bid on players I know will go higher as well, ones that I do not want and will drop out of before it gets to the end battle. If I do it 10 times, only 1 of those times it is with the intent of freezing out the room. I may have been unclear -- I only pick a couple of players I target to get at a few bucks undervalue. I'll do a jump bid all the time with others that I know will go higher.

I'm okay, in fact want to be known as the guy that jump bids. The way I do it on the variety of players I do it will keep MOST guessing as to whether I want the player above that jump bid. Just like the very best poker players can recognize the most subtle of tells, someone at the table may be able to see through me, or simply not be affected by any of these psychological influences. I just have to hope they do not also like a player I want at the reduced rate.

[Todd Zola]

The other thing to keep in mind is I only need it to work once or twice -- so they figure it out after I get a couple of guys in this manner -- that's OK, I got a couple of guys in this manner.

We're beginning to beat a dead horse here -- I'll call back to the point that the reason I do this is because of my personal sense that it works, based on the reactions I get and some post draft discussions. I can then "reverse-engineer" all I want WHY I THINK it works, it's all subjective. What is important TO ME is I believe, big picture, it gives me an edge. If some of you were in my auctions, I suspect I would get the sense it is not working or would not work and I would leave it in my back pocket.

If anyone wants to absolutely insist that my sense is unequivocally wrong, that's fine.

[roche]

If I do it 10 times, only 1 of those times it is with the intent of freezing out the room.

Anytime someone jump bids, they are telling the room "my prices are a few $ more than this jump bid. I can probably bid another dollar on this player." I doubt any of us would jump bid to our exact projection value. (Hunter worth $24? I'll jump bid to $24. Never happens.)
The room knows that if they bid an extra dollar, they are either getting a bargain based on your prices or they are bumping you a buck. If I'm in a room with someone that I respect (like you, Todd), it's an automatic overcall for me.

A simple incremental bid doesn't reveal anything. You go $21 on Hunter and I bid $22. You don't know if I'm bidding more or not.

[da_big_kid_94]

A simple incremental bid doesn't reveal anything. You go $21 on Hunter and I bid $22. You don't know if I'm bidding more or not.

This last line is an important one to me. In theory, it may work - I can't say one way or the other. But how many times does anyone recall someone topping a jump bid by a buck only to have the jumper keep his or her mouth shut? That, to me, is the trick ...and it's a tough one to master. Now, I'm not saying I remember every case in my auction history, but I can't recall a time where the jump bidder DIDN'T say 23 in response. The jump bidder only seems to stop when it gets down to single unit increments OR (to continue the poker analogy) when he's re-raised by another jump bid.

[Todd Zola]

If I do it 10 times, only 1 of those times it is with the intent of freezing out the room.

Anytime someone jump bids, they are telling the room "my prices are a few $ more than this jump bid. I can probably bid another dollar on this player." I doubt any of us would jump bid to our exact projection value. (Hunter worth $24? I'll jump bid to $24. Never happens.)
The room knows that if they bid an extra dollar, they are either getting a bargain based on your prices or they are bumping you a buck. If I'm in a room with someone that I respect (like you, Todd), it's an automatic overcall for me.

A simple incremental bid doesn't reveal anything. You go $21 on Hunter and I bid $22. You don't know if I'm bidding more or not.

Couple things..

1. Some people actually do jump to their final price.

2. The first time you go +1 on me and get stuck with a guy you don't want, you might hesitate to do it again -- and I will do what I can to make that happen. And others might also hesitate if they see it happen to someone else.

[Todd Zola]

A simple incremental bid doesn't reveal anything. You go $21 on Hunter and I bid $22. You don't know if I'm bidding more or not.

This last line is an important one to me. In theory, it may work - I can't say one way or the other. But how many times does anyone recall someone topping a jump bid by a buck only to have the jumper keep his or her mouth shut? That, to me, is the trick ...and it's a tough one to master. Now, I'm not saying I remember every case in my auction history, but I can't recall a time where the jump bidder DIDN'T say 23 in response. The jump bidder only seems to stop when it gets down to single unit increments OR (to continue the poker analogy) when he's re-raised by another jump bid.

First off, you have to mix it up, sometimes have the jump be the last bid, others keep going. I'll jump some guys I know will keep going to help pull this off.

This is one of those anecdotal things that is really more fun than anything tangible, but who knows, maybe it has an effect -- it irritates people when Albert Pujols gets put out for a buck. Part of the game is getting the reputation of wanting to get the bidding up into the desired range as quickly as possible. Some feel this slows an auction down, this goofy ARod, 1 --2 -- 3 thing. But I don't care, the bid gets up there quick enough. But if you are deemed the one that is irritated, and part of what you do is to jump bid to get it up in that range, it helps the overall act. Part of this is tabling Wright for $30 and not $1.

Something that is apparent is the blanket statement I made "I like jump bidding and do it a couple of times an auction" is quite misleading, as I failed to elaborate on everything needed to help make it "work", at least in my perception.

It is definitely a risk-reward type ploy.

[roche]

To continue the popular poker analogy, bidding is akin to how you push your chips into the pot. The pros do it the same way each and every time. They don't pound the chips in with force. They don't casually slide it in. They don't regretfully put chips in one at a time. Doing it differently each time gives their opps a chance to pick up a tell. Human nature means that we will unconsciously give away tells especially in times of stress. By doing it the exact same way, there is no way we can give away any info. When we get cute and try to put out false info by varying our routine, sometimes we deceive ourselves instead and an observant opps is going to make us pay. Try drumming your fingers not in a rhythm. It's just not possible to keep that up for long. Our brains aren't wired that way.

[Todd Zola]

I don't believe the pushing chips analogy is apropos.

I know the rules of poker, but am a terrible player. A bunch of my friends are quite good and they say you need to display different bidding patterns. Here is the analogy, with the bidding patterns. Like in poker, the bidding for players should be changed up on occasion.

Where I like the chips analogy and agree 100% is after winning or losing a player, I want to show no emotion. Am I really happy with the buy? Not so happy? That is the tell I want to keep secret, so if I do not alter my emotion after winning a player, I have no tell in that regard.

[roche]

I was talking about the physical act of putting your chips into the pot, not of bidding patterns. Most casual players put their chips in with confidence when they have a good hand and are more timid when they are unsure. These are obvious tells.

[Todd Zola]

I was talking about the physical act of putting your chips into the pot, not of bidding patterns. Most casual players put their chips in with confidence when they have a good hand and are more timid when they are unsure. These are obvious tells.

Understood, but you also said "bidding is akin to how you push your chips into the pot". It sure seemed like the comment was made in reply to my contending that bidding patterns should be changed and you saying they should not be for fear of giving something away.

The change you don't want is the pattern for a player you want versus the pattern for the player you don't want to be the ONLY change.

Another analogy is the tone of voice/aggressiveness used when you want a player versus when you don't. If you want the player and want to go +1, don't have a tell. An alternate to no emotion or change in behavior is showing an erratic, unpredictable nature -- sometimes waiting for GOING TWICE to go +1, sometimes getting the bid out before the previous bid is even finished.

[roche]

sometimes getting the bid out before the previous bid is even finished

I think that we've done jump bidding to death so lets move on.

I have always found that bidding before the other guy has finished is a sure-fire way to piss off the other guy and take him off his game. Now that's an aggressive psych move that I use. It works but you better be good friends before because you may not be after.

[rotodog]

sometimes getting the bid out before the previous bid is even finished

I think that we've done jump bidding to death so lets move on.

I have always found that bidding before the other guy has finished is a sure-fire way to piss off the other guy and take him off his game. Now that's an aggressive psych move that I use. It works but you better be good friends before because you may not be after.

OK..Now that the horse is dead, whoooped, beaten and pureed , can we take it to the Auction tactics thread someone started.. We can expand on many aspects of auction process...

[mkooljr1]

I don't understand the concept of a "player you don't want" or "like" as opposed to players you do want. I have a set of values in front of me for every player and if bidding is less than my value, I want the player. If it's more, I don't want the player. I don't care what his name is, I'm buying stats and I want to accumulate the most value on my roster by buying as many players at as big a discount as possible. Why would there be players you don't want? Of course you don't want negatively valued players, but any player in the positive value player pool is someone I would want at the right price!

[Todd Zola]

I don't understand the concept of a "player you don't want" or "like" as opposed to players you do want. I have a set of values in front of me for every player and if bidding is less than my value, I want the player. If it's more, I don't want the player. I don't care what his name is, I'm buying stats and I want to accumulate the most value on my roster by buying as many players at as big a discount as possible. Why would there be players you don't want? Of course you don't want negatively valued players, but any player in the positive value player pool is someone I would want at the right price!

There are a lot of reasons why I may not want a player. I may have a very good feeling I can get someone I sense will go undervalue and I do not want to lock myself out of that position or categorical need. I may know I do not want the player because there is enough evidence out there he will go for more than I am willing to pay, but I will bid anyway when I know the price will keep rising. I may not need anyone else at that position or with that categorical contribution. I may not want to spend that much money for a player, even under value, if it impacts what I have to spend on the rest of my squad. It's not the name of the player I don't want, to continue your analogy, it is his specific statistical or positional contribution I do not want based on my situation at the time.

The longer I play, the more I realize there is so much more to this game than "value".

[rotodog]

I don't understand the concept of a "player you don't want" or "like" as opposed to players you do want. I have a set of values in front of me for every player and if bidding is less than my value, I want the player. If it's more, I don't want the player. I don't care what his name is, I'm buying stats and I want to accumulate the most value on my roster by buying as many players at as big a discount as possible. Why would there be players you don't want? Of course you don't want negatively valued players, but any player in the positive value player pool is someone I would want at the right price!

it also depends on the valuation method too. Projection based valuations are not perfect to begin with, so why lock yourself into not getting a player for a buck more than your value. What valuation method are you using? Is it Todds CVRC or some other method?

[cwk1963]

Here's an example to see if you would want this player.

Assumptions - standard 5x5, 15 teams, standard 14/9 hitter/pitcher split. So you have to have 5 OF. These 5 OF are thrown out in the auction:

Player A - Valued at $7; went for $4 so you could have gotten at $5.
Player B - Valued at $3; crickets so you could have gotten at $2.
Player C - Valued at $6; went for $3 so you could have gotten for $4.
Player D - Valued at $9; went for $6 so you could have gotten for $7.

If you had bought all these players, you now only have 1 OF spot left. Now let's say your OF, in no particular order is JD Drew, Adam Lind, David DeJesus and Kendry Morales. The next OF thrown out is, let's say, Lastings Milledge who is valued at about $11. Bidding gets up to $6 and no one seems to want to go higher. Do you go to $7? Or $8? Or even $10 if it comes to that? According to what you said, yes you do because you've gotten all of them under value. Now your OF is:

Drew
Lind
DeJesus
Morales
Milledge

But guys like Wells, Vlad, Markakis, Lee, Kemp are still out there. You filled your OF with positive profit guys but I doubt that OF will compete unless you go over value to get STUDS at other positions. This is a simplistic example but I think you get the idea.

[rotodog]

Here's an example to see if you would want this player.

Assumptions - standard 5x5, 15 teams, standard 14/9 hitter/pitcher split. So you have to have 5 OF. These 5 OF are thrown out in the auction:

Player A - Valued at $7; went for $4 so you could have gotten at $5.
Player B - Valued at $3; crickets so you could have gotten at $2.
Player C - Valued at $6; went for $3 so you could have gotten for $4.
Player D - Valued at $9; went for $6 so you could have gotten for $7.

If you had bought all these players, you now only have 1 OF spot left. Now let's say your OF, in no particular order is JD Drew, Adam Lind, David DeJesus and Kendry Morales. The next OF thrown out is, let's say, Lastings Milledge who is valued at about $11. Bidding gets up to $6 and no one seems to want to go higher. Do you go to $7? Or $8? Or even $10 if it comes to that? According to what you said, yes you do because you've gotten all of them under value. Now your OF is:

Drew
Lind
DeJesus
Morales
Milledge

But guys like Wells, Vlad, Markakis, Lee, Kemp are still out there. You filled your OF with positive profit guys but I doubt that OF will compete unless you go over value to get STUDS at other positions. This is a simplistic example but I think you get the idea.

Said perfectly..... I know its a hard thing for some to comprehend, but profit only does not win Championships. You need to get a couple of those guys, but at some point if all you do is buy low, you will have money left....

The sooner roto leaguers stop relying on values alone as a basis for bidding, the closer you are to being a winner....IMO of course....

[mkooljr1]

All good responses and of course Todd, you laid out many of the exact reasons and are correct. I think I just misperceived the meaning of not wanting a player. I'm so used to seeing "avoid" lists that I figured it was similar, just a player you wouldn't want at any price. I've never made an avoid this, any player is worth rostering at the right price!

I actually use Todd's valuation system back from like 2003, but use my own projections. I don't know if he has updated it since then though.

In the example of outfielders all acquired for slightly under value, I would argue that it would simply allow you to buy better players at other positions. I don't care if I have a mediocre/bad OF, but great/expensive players at other positions, just as long as all my money is spent and I didn't overpay for many players, if any at all.

When I project the standings, there is always a high correlation between value accumulated and rank in those standings. Sure, it's not perfect, but accumulating the most value by buying as many players at as big a discount as possible (while spending all your money!) should be a primary goal.

[Guest]

In all seriousness, if you do your own projections, and each player's projection really takes into account how you feel about them, then yes, you can do the value thing, so long as of course you're paying attention to auction dynamics.

I just know Todd and I did the damn projections here and there are guys we'd be more or less aggressive on based on hunch. The projection is a baseline for reasonable expectation, not an end-all be-all of what we think could happen.

For example, if you really liked Jon Lester last year, you'd have bid him up, even though as a projection you had to be limited by the fact he had yet to perform at those levels.

[mkooljr1]

In all seriousness, if you do your own projections, and each player's projection really takes into account how you feel about them, then yes, you can do the value thing, so long as of course you're paying attention to auction dynamics.

I just know Todd and I did the damn projections here and there are guys we'd be more or less aggressive on based on hunch. The projection is a baseline for reasonable expectation, not an end-all be-all of what we think could happen.

For example, if you really liked Jon Lester last year, you'd have bid him up, even though as a projection you had to be limited by the fact he had yet to perform at those levels.

Yeah, I guess it differs when you do your own projections rather than rely on someone else's. I obviously don't like a player more than my value because it's based on my own projection. So I guess this whole little debate makes a little more sense to me now! Maybe it should encourage people to all do their own projections then so you don't have to make these decisions on the fly during the auction!

[rotodog]

All good responses and of course Todd, you laid out many of the exact reasons and are correct. I think I just misperceived the meaning of not wanting a player. I'm so used to seeing "avoid" lists that I figured it was similar, just a player you wouldn't want at any price. I've never made an avoid this, any player is worth rostering at the right price!

I actually use Todd's valuation system back from like 2003, but use my own projections. I don't know if he has updated it since then though.

In the example of outfielders all acquired for slightly under value, I would argue that it would simply allow you to buy better players at other positions. I don't care if I have a mediocre/bad OF, but great/expensive players at other positions, just as long as all my money is spent and I didn't overpay for many players, if any at all.

When I project the standings, there is always a high correlation between value accumulated and rank in those standings. Sure, it's not perfect, but accumulating the most value by buying as many players at as big a discount as possible (while spending all your money!) should be a primary goal.

I read a .78 multiplier once. A study done by another site years ago used the .78 rule. If you can get .78 of the points, you should win a league most years. He always translated that to .78 value on the players he wanted. I never bought into this as a whole and think it may have worked 10-15 years ago when a sharp guy could nab up bargains....Not anymore though. My problem is looking for only undervalued players is that you miss the necessary stud stats many times. The reason you look for bargains is so I can full price or more for the players I have identified as Reliable, studly producers.

I know you mention saving money for big players, but if you wont overpay in a league that overpays for top tier talent, you will miss out . If the league as a whole overpays for top tier and mid tier, all you need is one single owner to hold onto money and drive prices up in the middle and toward the end of the draft. Then you're stuck overpay for mediocrity as opposed to overpaying for reliable STUDS..... Just mt way of doing things on draft day and it works for me....

[Todd Zola]

I'm quite familiar with the .78 rule. The idea steams from needing about $320 worth of value to win most leagues. The thing is, you don't need every player to get you a profit. You can have $200 worth of talent earning exactly $200, then the remaining $60 doubling into $120. There are obviously infinite combos.

[rotodog]

I'm quite familiar with the .78 rule. The idea steams from needing about $320 worth of value to win most leagues. The thing is, you don't need every player to get you a profit. You can have $200 worth of talent earning exactly $200, then the remaining $60 doubling into $120. There are obviously infinite combos.

Exactly....Mr notebook is a fine guy and fine projector, but an old partner of mine used to drink his Kool Aid a little too much and didnt understand the concept...

For a while, he advocated buying at only .78 value for most all players and many people ended up missing out on players because they didnt understand the concept. My old partner didnt understand the concept until we partnered and I convinced him otherwise.... Your demonstation above shows a clear example of how you can pay full value for most and hit a couple players that give you the profit. In keeper leagues, players usually start with .78 value or below. They make the mistake of trying to buy more bargains instead of realizing they have Value walking into the draft with their keepers. They then can pay full price and overpay for a select few and still win ...

I just dont want folks to make the mistake of getting .78 total points and trying to buy all players at 78% of there value. or simply undervalue.

[Guest]

Plus, and I hate to belabor this point:

You need $320 in value at season's end to win.

You do not need $320 of player value based on pre-season projections. Information these days is plentiful and thorough. Your league isn't going to let you get to 320 unless its a keeper and you protect the value.

The goal is to obtain as much value as you can, hope for good health and outperformers on your roster with timely FA to fill in the gaps. It isn't to win the March 31 trophy.

[roche]

You need $320 in value at season's end to win

One thing that has always bothered me about the $320 value is that pitching makes up half of the points. We severely discount pitching with our prices at the auction but once the season gets under way, the pitching points are just as important as the bats.

In a retro draft, the top 10 picks are all going to be pitchers because without the injury/non-performance risks, pitchers are by far the highest earners of roto.

There is strong field-proven, time-tested empirical evidence that bully hitting and manage pitching is the optimum strategy. What I wonder is how many pitching points ($ value) do winning teams pick up from FAAB/waivers? This will help answer the question about what is the optimum hitting/pitching split.

[viper]

how much pitching you get from FAAB/waivers is an unanswerable question.

FAAB/waivers is just an in-season form of bullying. To manage pitching requires a carefully constructed draft which allow you flexibility in roster moves. In the NFBC this is essentially a form of streaming to get one [or more] multi-start pitchers each week. You need to draft a pitching staff with about seven players possessing an above skill set in ERA & WHIP. These are needed to offset the hits to the ratios you will get with your rental-for-the-week two start pitchers. You carefully manage the two ratio categories and bully the two counting categories.

I am currently playing games with CVCR to identify and rank those starting pitchers who have the best ERA & WHIP skill sets after the primary/rounded SPs are taken. Currently trying to get enough info to formulate some questions for Todd & Gary

[roche]

how much pitching you get from FAAB/waivers is an unanswerable question

What about simply comparing end-of-season pitching stats for each team vs original-roster stats? The difference is how much pitching you get from FAAB/waivers. Probably best to just use winning teams because losing teams sometimes become orphans.

[Todd Zola]

how much pitching you get from FAAB/waivers is an unanswerable question

What about simply comparing end-of-season pitching stats for each team vs original-roster stats? The difference is how much pitching you get from FAAB/waivers. Probably best to just use winning teams because losing teams sometimes become orphans.

This is something I am working on for an essay the first week in March