AL-Only keeper advice

[special k]

Happy spring, all.

Looking to improve on my second-place finish by one lousy point from a year ago (made up a $30 gap in keeper lists on the winner, almost!)
Standard 5X5 AL-only, 14 hitters, 9 pitchers, $260 budget, can protect up to 10, and, critically for this question, can toss players back into the pool on draft day, which is one week into the season because of scheduling conflicts of some owners.

Pretty set on nine keepers:

Cs: Martin, $6, and Suzuki, $8
SS. Asdrubal, $1
OF: Gordon, $11 (Thank you for talking me over my longtime Gordon-owner jitters a year ago), Carp $7 (can move to 1B, of course)
P: Moore, $8, and Walden, Aceves and Downs, $3 each.

I could just stop there, but given I can throw one back, why not take a shot on one of the following:
Raburn, $10. If he does win the job, could earn $2 to $5 profit. MB projects $14.
Braden, $12. MB projection $9, but there will be serious draft inflation, and my league highly values SP, many of whom will be protected, and I'm short in that dep't, I had Felix ($33) last year, and traded for a cheap Romero in a dump deal, that helped me almost win. I will try to get them back but it will probably cost me $50. I can't protect either, second year of two-year contracts, then we have to release or top, which I don't like.
Slowey, $5. See above, and from 2007 through 2009 he blew past this number easily. But that was then ...

Thoughts, and thanks in advance?

[Captain Hook]

Happy spring, all.

Looking to improve on my second-place finish by one lousy point from a year ago (made up a $30 gap in keeper lists on the winner, almost!)
Standard 5X5 AL-only, 14 hitters, 9 pitchers, $260 budget, can protect up to 10, and, critically for this question, can toss players back into the pool on draft day, which is one week into the season because of scheduling conflicts of some owners.

Pretty set on nine keepers:

Cs: Martin, $6, and Suzuki, $8
SS. Asdrubal, $1
OF: Gordon, $11 (Thank you for talking me over my longtime Gordon-owner jitters a year ago), Carp $7 (can move to 1B, of course)
P: Moore, $8, and Walden, Aceves and Downs, $3 each.

I could just stop there, but given I can throw one back, why not take a shot on one of the following:
Raburn, $10. If he does win the job, could earn $2 to $5 profit. MB projects $14.
Braden, $12. MB projection $9, but there will be serious draft inflation, and my league highly values SP, many of whom will be protected, and I'm short in that dep't, I had Felix ($33) last year, and traded for a cheap Romero in a dump deal, that helped me almost win. I will try to get them back but it will probably cost me $50. I can't protect either, second year of two-year contracts, then we have to release or top, which I don't like.
Slowey, $5. See above, and from 2007 through 2009 he blew past this number easily. But that was then ...

Thoughts, and thanks in advance?

Cs: Martin, $6, and Suzuki, $8
SS. Asdrubal, $1
OF: Gordon, $11, Carp $7
P: Moore, $8, and Walden, Aceves and Downs, $3 each.

I agree with all of these EXCEPT I don't see a reason to spend three dollars or a roster spot on Downs
Then you could keep both Raburn and Braden and see what happens

[SteveB]

Happy spring, all.

but there will be serious draft inflation, and my league highly values SP, many of whom will be protected, and I'm short in that dep't, I had Felix ($33) last year, and traded for a cheap Romero in a dump deal, that helped me almost win. I will try to get them back but it will probably cost me $50. I can't protect either, second year of two-year contracts, then we have to release or top, which I don't like.
?

Just out of curiosity what would the price for Romero be if you top him?

[special k]

Re: Downs. Looks like $5 profit, and he could get saves if Walden stumbles. But also true he could possibly be bought again for a similar price if I wanted to maintain look-sees at Braden/Raburn. Anyone else got an opinion?

Romero is a favorite of an at-times irrational owner, the guy I got him from in a dump trade. He would probably bid him up to $20, especially if he knew I had toppers. We also have a rule you have to stay in the bidding, and it goes around the room. You can't pass and jump back in. So I would be bidding directly against the guy if I wanted him. I have thought about this, it's a good question. Maybe others would drop out, and the other owner would win at $15 to $18, and then I could top at $16 to $19 and be pretty happy. Probably not better than a 10-15 percent chance, though, given the number of pitchers I foresee being protected.

Decision due by 3/15, BTW.

[Captain Hook]

Re: Downs and save chances - sure he might get some opportunities but they might just as well have another candidate in house or if they really felt Walden couldn't do the job, go out and get one (there will be several available via trade)

Its not worth tying up the resources - dollars and spot - you can always buy him back IF you don't have better options at the end of the draft

[special k]

Fair points, Captain. Do you agree on Braden and/or Raburn, or do you think I should just go in with eight or nine?

[Captain Hook]

Go with the solid ones and one you want to review later - I am fine with keeping both Raburn and Braden but would be happier with being able to take that second look and throw one back if necessary

[special k]

I can protect both Raburn and Braden, and throw both back if Raburn looks like he won't get the PT or if Braden looks shaky, So I will skip Downs and protect them and see how it plays out, thanks.
Plus, some owners inevitably get confused by players thrown back, and if I do throw them back they might slip through even cheaper. It's a funny group.