AL OF Pick'em

[AllstonRockCity]

After reading a fantastic column on the AL OF written by some dude named Ryan Carey I got to thinking. Well actually I've been thinking this for 2 weeks now, but now I have the time to get into it. (sleep little ones, sleep)

I'm looking at my dollar values and have 3 guys at the same $ value who all appear to be capable of producing eerily similar values via slightly different stat lines, yet are all different and unique in their own special way.

My question to all those on this board is, who would you take and why? Also, would your answer change in a draft vs. an auction?

OF #1 Adam Jones: a 280 20/10 80/80 kinda guy. still only 26. figures to hit in the heart of BALs lineup. pretty consistent but only walks about 6% of the time while making contact about 80%, BABIP usually 315ish. G/L/F rates usually about 50/18/32

OF #2 Shin SooChoo: a 300 20/20 80/80 kinda guy. 29yo, definite injury concerns, figures to hit in the meat of CLEs lineup. another fairly consistent performer who walks about 12% of the time while only making contact about 75% but has an uncanny ability to carry a 340ish BABIP, which just seems crazy. G/L/F/ averages 45/20/34

OF #3 Carl Crawford: if I had to guess, I'd say a 275 15/35 70rbi/90run kind of guy now. 30 with physical and mental concerns. only walks 6% of the time with an 80% CT rate (just like OF#1) but keeps a BABIP around 340 (like OF #2) (infield hits anyone?). G/L/F/ 48/18/34

So, I know who I'd take, who would you? and if it were a draft instead of an auction?

[Captain Hook]

Given the injury concerns with Crawford, I would choose Adam Jones as there is more power upside than with Choo

[Mickey4081]

It's between Choo and Jones for me. I'd lean towards Choo. But, Jones is solid choice also. I like Choo a bit better only for the added steals. I'm scrapping last season and looking for 20/20 from Choo in 2012. Carl Crawford will not be on any of my teams this year.

[Todd Zola]

This is tough for me, pre-wrist surgery and I may have said Crawford, but pre-surgery he may not be lumped in with these two.

I have been a Choo mark for years, but I am not convinced the drop in BABIP was because he was distraught over the DUI and not just regression, but as ARC alludes to, his contact is low so he needs a high BABIP.

I like Jones a lot as well, very stable but as Perry mentions, a bit of upside in power if he could just loft a few more balls.

I think it comes down to my team construct at the time -- Choo riskier but a higher reward, assuming his average is near .300, with Jones safer, but less overall upside. I am guessing that 7 of 10 times, I take Jones.

[deansdaddy]

Well - thanks for the plug Nate - appreciate it.

I cast my lot with Choo in the article - so I will stick with that. That said - it is quite likely the course of your draft will make this pick for you. Crawford will surely go ahead of Choo and Jones. The other two do in fact come into question about the same time in drafts. Honestly I don't think you can go wrong with either in drafts this year. I actually like the Indians lineup a little more than the Orioles. If you want a little more power - go for Jones. If you want a little more speed and BA (Choo is the better bet to hit .300 - Ct/h% aside). It might depend on your opening 4-5 picks.

[CubFan]

Tough pick. I like Jones a tad more than Choo. Much has been said already for the reasons of choosing either. For me it will come down to where will I be getting my SBs from.....spread the wealth or focus on someone like Jennings.

[AllstonRockCity]

Thanks all for taking the time to post on this thread.

If I manage to land any of them I'll let you know the how and why of it.