NFBC Slow Draft pitching question

[daweasle]

I am in a 15 team NFBC SLOW DRAFT - Here is my pitching staff so far

please give inputs as to where I should head next...(IE more starters or more RP)...more KKKK's or more W's?

Thanks -

SP1 Jered Weaver RP1 Brian Wilson
SP2 Chris Carpenter RP2 Javy Guerra
SP3 Ubaldo Jimenez RP3 Dan Carpenter
SP4 Max Scherzer RP4 J Abreu
SP5 Dallas Braden RP5 B Fuentes
SP6 Carlos Zambrano RP6 Joey Devine

[daweasle]

by the way - I have the option to take up to like 25-26 pitchers but I cannot make any trades or free agent moves during the season

[deansdaddy]

More SP's for sure - Braden and Zambrano are not guys I would want to rely on every week (Braden might start the year on the DL).

What round are you in?

What starters are still on the board?

[daweasle]

There's not much pitching left that are super good.

I am in round 26.

[daweasle]

pitchers still available

SP:
AJ Burnett
J guthrie
hochever
harang
K lohse
the player formerly known as fausto carmona
joe saunders
guillermo moscoso


RP:
faustino delos santos
K gregg
F SALAS

K Jansen
Sean Marshall

random others but i think thats the best of the bunch available

[deansdaddy]

Kenley Jansen? How is he still around? I think he's better than about half of your releivers and I'd rather own him than Javy G. Since you have javy G - I think he's a no brainer.

I also like Hochevar out of that list and if you read my AL late round target article you will know I also like Felipe Paulino (who I am guessing is still around if Hochevar is)

[Todd Zola]

It will not be long before what you now consider to be crap begins looking better and better.

You need to throw away your usual pitching evaluation glasses and pick up a pair a lot less discerning.

One thing I learned from my Slow Draft (with the caveat that every draft is different) is from pick 40-50, the "best" players on the board are set up guys with decent peripherals so my cautionary advice id depending on your draft flow, do not expend an earlier pick on a set up up guy unless he handcuffs your closer or is a good bet to get saves on his own. It is better to take speculative picks on the Peacocks, Bauers, Stammens, Richards, Milones, Beavans etc

[daweasle]

SO - the guy who is available is C Jenssen TOR guy not Jansen the RP from LAD.

what it sounds like you guys are saying right now is to focus more on SP and hitters now before they are all gone and grab a bunch of random RP in the last few rounds.

[Todd Zola]

SO - the guy who is available is C Jenssen TOR guy not Jansen the RP from LAD.

what it sounds like you guys are saying right now is to focus more on SP and hitters now before they are all gone and grab a bunch of random RP in the last few rounds.

Yes, and not just draft guys you would draft if this were a FAAB draft. in essence, you have to find guys where you say "IF he is able to do THUS and SO, he could be good", but even to a larger degree you do already. One of my primary filters for this type of pitcher is his park, figuring worst case is I stream him at home to minimize damage. Others have different filters they like to use (high K rate, low walk rate, ground baller, etc.) Obviously, they all have warts or they would be gone. Instead of focusing on what is likely to go wrong, you have to try to figure out what could possibly go right -- at least that is how I approach it.

[daweasle]

So in this type of league - would you prefer

a guy who has been there and done that before but has little chance of doing it again (brandon webb type)

Or a guy who is in minors and could get called up but has never done it before (drew pomeranz type)

[Todd Zola]

I don't like picking broad generalizations, I prefer to look at things on a more individual basis.

My first filter is likelihood they will pitch this season. so on that basis, using these two names, my answer is Pomeranz.

With that said, he does not profile as someone I am comfortable using as he loses the home park advantage with respect to skills bump to the fact Coors is so hitter friendly.

Now with that said, gun to head, I would take the never done it before with something to make me believe he could over the not every likely to do it again -- all things being equal. But I am guessing I will have decided between the two (or more) using other filters before it gets to that point.

[Captain Hook]

I am in a 15 team NFBC SLOW DRAFT - Here is my pitching staff so far

please give inputs as to where I should head next...(IE more starters or more RP)...more KKKK's or more W's?

Thanks -

SP1 Jered Weaver RP1 Brian Wilson
SP2 Chris Carpenter RP2 Javy Guerra
SP3 Ubaldo Jimenez RP3 Dan Carpenter
SP4 Max Scherzer RP4 J Abreu
SP5 Dallas Braden RP5 B Fuentes
SP6 Carlos Zambrano RP6 Joey Devine

Well impossible to really give advice when you are more than half way through the draft.
Your SP are fine BUT you NEED a lot more - remember no FAAB ie no replacements!
Your RP? WTH is Dan Carpenter? J. Abreu?
Fuentes and Devine are reasonable shots for Oakland saves (if Balfour fails or gets traded) but WHY so early in the draft? Those picks cost you decent SP or more bats

I would not draft the Brandon Webb types.....even Rubby DeRosa who I think will be back in August is a reach I wouldn't make because one delay and he will be worthless.
BUT the hot shot pitching prospects who have any chance to be up should be added - and the order should be determined by the likelihood of being up earlier rather than just long term potential - so I like Danny Hultzen, SEA; Trevor Bauer, AZ; MIke Montgomery, KC; Betances and Banuelos, NYY; and Gerritt Cole, PIT

And my plan going into any of those fifty round drafts is to have 25 hitters and 25 pitchers - I might go up one or down one depending on who I rostered.