AL-only Keeper Advice

[Kelly_Leak]

Looking for some help/guidance on my keepers. It would be helpful if you ranked your top 8 from the following list (see league specs for salary explanations):
~ Miguel Cabrera $25/$30
~ Curtis Granderson $24 (2011 draftee)
~ Brett Lawrie $7/$12
~ James Shields $11 (2011 draftee)
~ Ubaldo Jimenez $5/$10
~ Carlos Santana $4/$9
~ Jeremy Hellickson $1/$6
~ Brandon McCarthy $1/$6
~ Matt Moore $1/$6
~ Dayan Viciedo $1/$6
~ Kyle Farnsworth $5 (2011 draftee)
~ Eric Hosmer $5 (2011 draftee)
~ Coco Crisp $4 (2011 draftee)
~ Michael Pineda $3 (2011 draftee)
~ Mike Moustakas $1 (2011 draftee)

There are trade possibilities (as I have a deep list), but lets focus on what my current options are.

~~~League Specifics~~~
- 10 team AL-only auction ($260)
- Standard lineup (14/9); 5 bench slots; 5 DL slots
- 6 keepers per year
- Inflation typically runs in the 15% to 20% range
- League runs around a 67/33 Hit/Pitch split
- Draft salaries are fairly typical (Pujols will go for around $42 +/-$3; Verlander around $34 +/-$3)
- Keepers can either be extended for $5 (can be kept in subsequent years) or 'one and outed' at last year's salary (cannot be kept after this season). Additionally, players drafted or taken in the reserve round of last year are exempt from a salary increase this year. 2011 FA pickups are keepable, but require the raise/'one and out' decision.
- Yes, I plan to compete for a title this year

We do have some rules that I am not fond of (i.e. FA Pickup salaries = FAAB bid and AL/NL trade overs -- how I acquired Miggy years ago and Ubaldo last year at fairly inexpensive salaries), but do not want to get into any kind of rule debates as the league is pretty set in its ways.

[Captain Hook]

I would definitely keep these
~ Brett Lawrie $7/$12
~ Matt Moore $1/$6
~ Eric Hosmer $5 (2011 draftee)
~ Carlos Santana $4/$9
~ Kyle Farnsworth $5 (2011 draftee)

And I have no problem keeping these (in order of preference)
~ Mike Moustakas $1 (2011 draftee)
~ Jeremy Hellickson $1/$6
~ Michael Pineda $3 (2011 draftee)

I am on the fence with Granderson $24 but would likely throw back because:
1) You will have a ton of profit frozen with your six players; and
2) Have a ton of $$$ in the auction

Those are partially the reasons I am not keeping Miggy - a bigger reason is that with Pujols AND Fielder coming into the league I want all the options in the auction

[Kelly_Leak]

Thank you PVH...your comments are interesting. I had assumed Miggy would be on everyone's list - especially considering there is a good chance he gains 3B eligibility after the 1st week. There should be some worth to Miggy's consistency vs the unknown/lottery ticket of say Lawrie or Moore.

One detail I left out and the reason I asked for a list of 8, is that we have two new owners replacing two previous owners. Both exiting owners gutted their teams last year in an attempt to win. Instead of handing over crummy teams to the new owners, the exiting teams will be liquidated and we will hold an expansion draft prior to our auction. Each existing owner will be allowed to protect 4 players prior to the expansion draft. The 2 new owners will then select any unprotected players from the existing teams. However, if a player is selected from your team, you are then allowed to protect a 5th player from the expansion teams. If another player is selected from your team, you can then protect a 6th player (why I need to go at least 8 deep). If after the expansion draft you do not have 6 keepers you can backfill any additional keeper spots with remaining players on your team.

Before doing any research I thought my initial 4 protections would be:
- Miguel Cabrera extended at $30
- Carlos Santana extended at $9
- Eric Hosmer at $5 (no extension req'd)
- Michael Pineda at $3 (no extension req'd)

After that I had ranked (in order):
- James Shields at $11 (no extension req'd)
- Matt Moore extended at $6
- Brett Lawrie extended at $12
- Jeremy Hellickson extended at $6
- Ubaldo Jimenez extended at $10
- Mike Moustakas at $1 (no extension req'd)
- Curtis Granderson at $24 (no extension req'd)
- Kyle Farnsworth at $5 (no extension req'd)

There is definitely some strategy with your 1st 4 protections. Brett Lawrie has definitely caught my attention as I look into MBs projections and has moved up my ranks a bit. Thankfully I have some time to make my decisions and try to work a 2-for-1 or 3-for-1 trade. Our keeper deadline is March 17th.

[Captain Hook]

The expansion draft is even more of a reason to keep what you consider the best long term keepers - the new teams will have NO chance to win this year (in part because you existing teams are NOT going deep enough to give them a shot).

OTOH it does give some thought to protecting Miggy because that should be a first pick for some new team - if nothing else than to have a BIG trade chip for later in the year. Clearly a fantasy dilemma and one we would all answer differently.............BUT again you can lose Miggy because you will have a shot at either Pujols or Fielder

[SteveB]

~ Miguel Cabrera $25/$30
~ Brett Lawrie $7/$12
~ Carlos Santana $4/$9
~ Matt Moore $1/$6
~ Eric Hosmer $5 (2011 draftee)
~ Michael Pineda $3 (2011 draftee)
~ Mike Moustakas $1 (2011 draftee)


~ Jeremy Hellickson $1/$6
~ Kyle Farnsworth $5 (2011 draftee)

~ Dayan Viciedo $1/$6


you have some real nice keepers here. I dont think there is anyway you dont keep Miggy. He is agruably the #1 overall pick in the draft. It looks like with your inflation he could go as high as 45 or so in draft and that comparable prices will be spent on Fielder and Pujols. Why would you throw him back at 30 just so you could bid on someone at 42-45 with comparable stats. In fact i would probably keep the 7 above for sure and still make a hard run at Pujols.

For the 8th pick i would go with Hellickson or Farnsworth your choice. I like the SP better but depending on what is being kept RP might be a smarter choice for you. I would look to possibly move Hellickson, Farnsworth , Viciedo in a package type deal to a team having a hard time getting to 8 keepers and upgrade one P spot or ? MI

[da_big_kid_94]

Why

• James Shields $11 (2011 draftee) -solid contributor with AL East experience.
• Carlos Santana $4/$9 - young catcher with a healthy bat and a division up for grabs.
• Matt Moore $1/$6 - only because he's a buck - if you get anything better than Wade Davis's first year numbers, it's gravy.
• Eric Hosmer $5 (2011 draftee) I see no reason he can not continue to mash.
• Coco Crisp $4 (2011 draftee) - speed in a cavern and he's not going to get traded with his new deal in place.
• Michael Pineda $3 (2011 draftee) - welcome to an offensive team pal - but beware the Verducci factor.
• Mike Moustakas $1 (2011 draftee) - too good a bargain to pass up

The swing

• Jeremy Hellickson $1/$6 - still developing his stuff - and he'd give you a THIRD Ray pitcher.
• Ubaldo Jimenez $5/$10 - see him as being totally healthy this year.

Why Not

• Kyle Farnsworth $5 (2011 draftee) In his last year of his deal, he could lose the job as well as he could keep it. Makes him trade bait, and if he does get dealt, chances are it's not as a closer. You'll have enough dough to get just about any closer you want.
• Miguel Cabrera $25/$30 Tell me the position switch won't play with his head and I'll put him on the keeper side - but a guy with a bad psyche switching to a position he hasn't been able to play for years - he's gets off to a bad start in the field on a team that expects a ton from him?
• Brandon McCarthy $1/$6 - Missed 2010, threw more innings he ever had in his life last season and look at the A's now. Nope.
• Brett Lawrie $7/$12 - ok - where? Encarnacion's 2010 makes 7 units a risk to me - and you have better choices than a 7 unit risk.
• Curtis Granderson $24 (2011 draftee) the anti Adam Dunn - great year - but too many K's - and he still only hit .262
• Dayan Viciedo $1/$6 - he's got the job in the best hitting park in the AL - but you look at the lineup and you say...ehh...maybe not.

Having said that, there is an inherent risk with the keepers I've listed; Some mixture of 3 Rays, 2 Indians 2 Royals - these franchises have not had track records of consistent success - so is THIS the year for some of them?

[Kelly_Leak]

Thanks everyone! I am going to take the next month or so to evaluate my keepers as well as any potential trades. I may revisit this post in the future.

DBK - unfortunately I don't have Alex Gordon as an option this year...last year was actually the first time in Alex's career where I didn't own him. Go figure!

[da_big_kid_94]

Thanks everyone! I am going to take the next month or so to evaluate my keepers as well as any potential trades. I may revisit this post in the future.

DBK - unfortunately I don't have Alex Gordon as an option this year...last year was actually the first time in Alex's career where I didn't own him. Go figure!

Figured you'd get him at auction.

[Kelly_Leak]

First offer on the table...
My Matt Moore ($6) for his Mike Napoli ($12). Thoughts?

I do already plan to keep Carlos Santana at $9. I generally don't like keeping catchers (or closers, but that's a different topic) because they tend to get run down/injured more often. However, both Santana and Napoli have other avenues to ABs via 1B and DH.

[Captain Hook]

First offer on the table...
My Matt Moore ($6) for his Mike Napoli ($12). Thoughts?

I do already plan to keep Carlos Santana at $9. I generally don't like keeping catchers (or closers, but that's a different topic) because they tend to get run down/injured more often. However, both Santana and Napoli have other avenues to ABs via 1B and DH.

I may be the biggest Napoli fan on the boards (lol see last years comments) BUT I would not make that trade - its a KEEPER league and I want to keep Matt Moore as long as I can IF he pitches like we all think/hope he will.....and Napoli is not getting younger...and you already have Santana.

[da_big_kid_94]

I pass ... I'm a big Napoli supporter but you already have a young hitting catcher and if you look around, you'll find there aren't a lot of arms that are really impressive in the AL. You can afford to let Moore develop and there will be a few good cheap catchers available this year.

Since you and I are in similar leagues, you get to throw out names like Fielder and Pujols like chum without needing them and watch the feeding frenzy. If you take on Napoli, you'll lose some roster flexibility at auction, going in with either two catchers or two 1B.

[daweasle]

regarding the matt moore for napoli deal -

I am the last one to ever argue with PVH, BUT -he makes it sound cut and dry. It is not cut and dry.

I think this is one of those deals where you have to say to yourself - do I have what it takes to win this year? If you believe the answer is yes - then you have to consider making the trade to get the best catcher in the AL. Add him to the best hitter, the second best catcher, the best young third baseman, and a host of money to spend in the draft. I think if you made this trade and went into the draft with a plan, you'd have to have to be in a coma in the second round to avoid placing top 2.

I understand the plan for the future thing - but if you want to win this year - this trade puts you well on your way.

And I disagree with the idea of not going into the draft with roster flexibility.
If you have the chance to go into the draft with the two best players at a position - who cares about roster flexibility? what's wrong - are you afraid you're going to miss out on miguel olivo? (I am sure all the other good C's are kept at good prices considering guys like alex avila, russ martin were huge values the last couple seasons)

I'd say make the trade and win in 2012.


***Note - I say this assuming you have one of the best keeper lists in this league. If there is someone else out there who you fear has you beaten already then disregard my opinion.

[Captain Hook]

Hey I am all about winning NOW

But Matt Moore is not Danny Hultzen to use an example - he has already pitched at the major league level and done well even in a small sample size. He is not just a prospect with the maybe high potential. AND he has a rotation spot locked up - at least from what Maddon and the Rays have said (were that not the case then I would agree with daweasle)

[da_big_kid_94]

Actually roster flexibility has some impact in this case. Since his keepers are not yet determined, would you advocate this deal if he kept Lawrie? He'd have a heck of a lot of money to spend, he'd be locked out at 3B and catcher or 1B. He'd be down a pitcher and he would almost be forcing himself to commit big units to Albert or Prince because he'd need to keep Napoli at C if he were going for it this year (he moves Napoli to 1B, he's locked out at the corners and what sort of catcher is deserving of big units in the AL?) If he doesn't go for either of those two, where does he spend his money? What are his alternatives? In an AL only this year, contrary to the accepted norm, arms are more important than bats at certain positions. He'd be already loaded at the positions that are going to make the most bucks at this year. So, what's in the OF that warrants big bucks that are going to be up for bids?

[Kelly_Leak]

This is great stuff!

I enjoy the debate, as everything expressed so far are the same thoughts running through my head (re: Napoli deal). I have hands down the deepest set of potential keepers. I am definitely playing for this year.

Does anyone's opinion change if the deal was changed to my Matt Moore ($6) for his Jacoby Ellsbury ($25)?

As of today the only 100% definite protections are IMO (barring a ST injury):
- C.Santana ($9)
- E.Hosmer ($5)

Then in some order I have:
- M.Cabrera ($30) -- position change worries me some, but he is a STUD and will go for $40+
- M.Pineda ($3) -- worried about move from Sea to NY (from a stadium and media stand point)
- J.Hellickson ($6) -- lack of Ks concern me, but Todd has written some about this concern
- M.Moore ($6) -- less than a handful of starts at major league level
- B.Lawrie ($12) -- sizable risk, but huge reward if he porduces
- J.Shields ($11) -- I own this guy every year; will go for $20+
- M.Moustakas ($1) -- can't go wrong for $1, right?
- K.Farnsworth ($5) -- I don't like keeping closers
- C.Crisp ($4) -- injury risk

This leaves me two more protections from the expansion draft to decide on and then some decisions on my last two keepers after/during the expansion draft. If I were to deal for Jacoby or Napoli, the deal only makes sense if I believe they fall in the 100% definite list (otherwise why deal for one of them?). I think Jacoby makes it, but I'm not so sure about Napoli, for reasons expressed by PVH and DBK (flexibility issues, age, position, C.Santana, etc.).

Again, thanks for all the opinions!

[Captain Hook]

I would not trade Moore $6 for Ellsbury $25
IF you said Moore $6 for Ellsbury (or another star) for $10 maybe but frankly in a keeper league you have to look at the possiblility that Moore = STUD and thus you don't want to trade him until you have to.

I don't see Napoli or Ellsbury fitting into your plans BUT if YOU do, why not try and trade Pineda or Hellickson for them.......or both - you would still have plenty of keepers.

While in a normal year I think I still might put Miggy back in the pool for reasons stated before I do think there is a danger if you don't have him as one of the four initial protects and while he has the stats for it I don't like giving up younger players with much lower salaries....Have you shopped Cabrera around? I could see getting a very nice, young, cheap keeper back for him in which case I would try hard to put him on the roster of a player you think could not possibly win the league (there are some in every league)