Seth Smith/Oakland A's lineup

[Mickey4081]

Ok guys, I just glanced over at the projected starting lineup for the A's and Seth Smith is projected to hit cleanup? What is going on over there? Is this guy that good? I guess i've got some homework to do on Seth Smith.

[da_big_kid_94]

Good is a relative term here. He has played his entire career in Colorado and has a total of 51 home runs. Three year average is .302 in Colorado and .248 on the road and "slugs" 200 points lower on the road. He goes from THAT environment to the cavern known as the Coliseum. He's really the cleanup hitter due to attrition more than anything else. As for what's going on? This month MLB is supposed to make the announcement about the A's getting permission to move to San Jose. Think Major League with an Academy Award nomination.

[Captain Hook]

Not sure if it really matters who hits cleanup for the AAAthletics

Or that you are looking at a PROJECTED lineup (from where btw) showing Smith hitting 4th when I have seen information from the local beat writers in Oakland that the team is actually looking for a platoon partner for Seth.

[TheRunner77]

Platooning in an empty lineup playing out of a pitcher-friendly venue.

These are the kind of recommendations you can only get from a misfortune teller.

[captgus]

Not sure if it really matters who hits cleanup for the AAAthletics

Or that you are looking at a PROJECTED lineup (from where btw) showing Smith hitting 4th when I have seen information from the local beat writers in Oakland that the team is actually looking for a platoon partner for Seth.

FWIW, MLBDepthCharts has him batting 4th.

[TheRunner77]

FWIW, MLBDepthCharts has him batting 4th.

How can MLBDepthCharts know this?

There are several other sites playing the projected lineup game and they all claim to be authoritative and rely on multiple sources. Who are their sources? And worse, how do we know they are reliable when we are not privy to their decision-making process?

Even when statements are made by team personnel, they're not always followed up on.

I read recently that Jim Leyland, by way of example, used 127 different lineups last year. I'd like to see MLBDepthCharts predicting Leyland's lineup card in 2012.

[Captain Hook]

yeah I didn't wan't to pick on Jason's site as I think he is doing a very good job but really there are no lineups at this point - only guesses on lineups - because even if the manager has said I think it will be X....we are two months out and I will bet against.

But educated guess like MLB Depth Charts are fine - many MLB.com writers have "projected lineups" which is how we should view all of them for now

[Todd Zola]

They are doing nothing more than anyone playing fantasy baseball is doing -- making their personal best guess as to how much playing time a player is going to get. Their gimmick/niche is projecting lineups, they are making a best guess is all, just like we do, just like anyone does that has to estimate playing time.

For kicks, if the season started tomorrow and the A's were facing a righty, what would your batting order be based on their current personnel? I know mine would have Smith somewhere in the meat of the order.

[AllstonRockCity]

Also we should look at this from MLBDepthCharts POV: if the link for every team just brought you to a page that said, "lineups coming soon" would any of us be going to their site? Would we be talking about them right now? Sure its all conjecture, but its fun and they get the hits they need.

I do think the value in that site right now is in the projected 40 and 25 man rosters. I don't care what their lineups say right now but I do care quite a bit at who's in and who's on the bubble.

[TheRunner77]

I don't care what their lineups say right now but I do care quite a bit at who's in and who's on the bubble.

Absolutely agree.

And I too don't mean to pick on anyone in particular, esp. Jason who is a real nice guy and does a great job with his site.

Why not express lineup predictions in tiers, using Todd's reference to Smith likely hitting in the meat of the order. Someone likely to be found in the third tier is either on the bubble or is in the lineup for his defensive acumen -- or both.

If I were running a site offering lineup projections, my first point of reference would be to look at all the lineups used last year by every manager.

Then, I'd try and identify those managers who favored a regular lineup most often and how often over the whole season -- validate with two seasons, in case of anomalies.

Followed by, what type of hitters did they favor in the top tier? Do they favor players who take walks to hit in the first tier? Or they're so old school that as long as a player shows speed, gumption, grit and all kind of other descriptions that are spat out while chewing tobacco, then you have a pretty good idea where they might lean.

Then, followed by personnel changes and how that personnel is likely to be used in a new environment.

Then I would consult a multiplicity of other sources, including noise-makers from different orgs, local newspapers, online bloggers and other sites who try to predict lineups.

Put it all in a blender and voilà.

It might still not be accurate but at least I'd have limited my margin of error. Hopefully, this is how these lineup sites operate.

[Mickey4081]

For kicks, if the season started tomorrow and the A's were facing a righty, what would your batting order be based on their current personnel? I know mine would have Smith somewhere in the meat of the order.[/quote]

Yep, i suppose he should be hitting in the heart of the order with that lineup.