Nolan Reimold

[captgus]

I'm trying to get a handle on him. It seems like if were given the opportunity to start and say 500 ABs, that you could be looking at a potential 20HR/10SB outfielder. Surely, Endy Chavez isn't the answer and I don't see anything in Reimold's splits (RH/LH) that would indicate he's a platoon type player. My question is, he seems to take walks and makes contact at a decent clip ~79%, so why such a depressed batting average (.233) in his projection?

[Todd Zola]

First off, 79% contact is no great shakes. But more importantly, his LD% is WELL BELOW league average and although there are other aspects of a player's BABIP, line drive percent is the most important element which really tempers his average.

We use MLE in our engine and he is really being penalized for hitting a weak .237 as a 28 year old in Triple A and just .249 the year before at the same level.

Now factor in .207 in '10 and .247 last year with the O's and .233 is not at all unreasonable.

[captgus]

Fair enough and I never meant to imply that the projection was unreasonable, just trying to get an idea the reasoning behind it. Now that you've pointed out the LD%, geeez that puts him in some pretty unfavorable company.

Thanks Todd.

[Captain Hook]

And BTW Reimold is getting nowhere close to 500 at bats (unless he goes absolutely off and stays relatively hot)

Endy will play some - not sure if it will be a semi-platoon or share or something and there will be less lites who will get some playing time there (first year I can't use share of the Pie)

[captgus]

Well his current projections have him at 425 ABs and it's not as if the Orioles will contend. At some point they either need to see what he can do, or move on. Then again, we're talking the Orioles and yes, I understand there was a reason that Chavez was signed. In any event, I was just trying to understand the reasoning behind the projected average, "teach a man to fish...." and all of that.

[TheRunner77]

Reimold is parlaying 64 productive ABs last September into fantasy baseball relevance.

This guy was always on the cusp of something and then along the way he was cut cause he had options, he underperformed and disappointed, he was beaten out by Felix Pie , lost more opportunity to big name FAs and sent back down and yoyoed back up, unpredictably.

He's always shown above average power but his contact rate, as Todd indicated, has not been great in the last 2 years. Not to mention his 50% GB rate -- not ideal for a supposed power hitter.

He's 28 (still young certainly and in his prime years) but he never had more than 358 ABs in the majors and that was in 2009.

I get the feeling that people are reading too much into those Sept. numbers -- they think they may have just found the next Bautista.

And then when you think of it, the best time to hit like a madman is Sept. -- esp. when rosters expand and you're hitting against AA and AAA pitchers from teams that are not in contention.

And then, Chavez is added in the off-season. Chavez, the Pie-thorn in Reimold's quest for regular ABs. Reimold has shown the ability to lose PT to lesser talents -- I'd love to see that reversed before I'd move him up in my drafts.

[captgus]

Geeez, I'm gonna come off as a Nolan Reimold 'fanboy' here but he actually had 9 HRs in the months of May(5) and June(4) of 2009, still a small sample size but not to be discounted. I think I'd put more credence into the poor LD% that Todd pointed out over the CT%, as there are plenty of players that produce with CT% at or below the 78-80% range.

In any event, we're really talking or rather I'm looking at him as a potential end game flier, with some upside should things fall into place, nothing more.

[TheRunner77]

In NFBC drafts, he's definitely not an end-gamer. If you can get him as a late flyer, you're beating Charlie Sheen.

[Todd Zola]

given that these NFBC drafts are a very unique format and may not transcend all other styles. Reimold's Slow Draft NFBC ADP is 297, putting him at OF5 or UT. He is bracketed by Dayan Viciedo, Seth Smith and Ryan Raburn amongst outfielders.

I think I would rather have Raburn (2b eligible), Viciedo and then it comes down to the likely more stable but possibly less productive playing time of Smith versus the less stable, but potentially higher ceiling of Reimold. That decision is contextual and I can argue both ways.

[da_big_kid_94]

If the Orioles were thinking along the same lines you were, Gus ... then why sign Chavez? He certainly isn't a building block for the future. Other teams have handed youngsters the job and said run with it. if they did, they continue. if they didn't (like Kila) - they got demoted then released. Why wouldn't they do that with Reimold ...unless they've already made up their mind about Reimold ... and that's why they signed Endy.

[Todd Zola]

Endy Chavez was not signed to be anything more than a defensive replacement, spot starter that can play any of the OF spots. Reimold is battling himself for playing time, not Chavez.

One of my pet peeves is when we call out second division clubs for not spending money while at the same time, chastising them for when they spend money on guys that are not part of their future.

They still need to fill 25 roster spots, regardless of their situation, they can't run with 25 speculative player. Chavez fills a need, and it is not strictly Reimold insurance.

[da_big_kid_94]

Right. I suggest you take your pet peeves and calm them down.

Who said anything about the Birds spending money? We're talking building here. See any top OF prospects in the minor leagues for the O's? In the words of Katt Williams; "Don't worry, I'll wait."

Reimold is a 28 year old ballplayer - it's now or never for him. So who did they sign Chavez to be a late inning replacement for? Jones? Markakis? if Reimold is going to be a significant contributor, why aren't they seemingly treating him that way? Chavez was a platoon OF on the AL pennant winners last year - and now he's going to be the caddy for Nolan Reimold? What other role does Chavez fill on that team? Pinch runner extrodinaire?

[Todd Zola]

Every team needs at least 4, usually 5 outfielders, correct?

Chavez was forced into more action than expected due to injury and a disappointing Borbon. If Texas thought he was anything more, they would not presently have a CF battle between Martin, Borbon and Gentry.

All I am saying is Chavez is nothing more than your prototypical 4th or 5th outfielder, filling a necessary (and commonplace) role on a Major League squad.

On the (rare?) occasions the maturing pitching staff has a lead in the late innings, they deserve to have a better defender tracking balls down in left. In a close game late, it is nice to have someone that can lay down a bunt or pinch run.

My feeling is the impetus was not "we need someone as Reimold insurance" but "we need someone as a defensive replacement and someone that can do the little things late."

Rebuilding or not, Baltimore is still a Major League team thus needs to full its roster with Major League players. If Reimold hits, Reimold will play, case closed. The presence of Chavez is not going to change that.

[captgus]

In NFBC drafts, he's definitely not an end-gamer. If you can get him as a late flyer, you're beating Charlie Sheen.

Fair enough however I'm not an NFBC participant but rather a run of the mill, 12 team 5x5 keeper league. I suppose I should keep in mind that many on this forum are (NFBC participants) and as such, context is everything.

[da_big_kid_94]

Every team needs at least 4, usually 5 outfielders, correct?

Chavez was forced into more action than expected due to injury and a disappointing Borbon. If Texas thought he was anything more, they would not presently have a CF battle between Martin, Borbon and Gentry.

All I am saying is Chavez is nothing more than your prototypical 4th or 5th outfielder, filling a necessary (and commonplace) role on a Major League squad.

On the (rare?) occasions the maturing pitching staff has a lead in the late innings, they deserve to have a better defender tracking balls down in left. In a close game late, it is nice to have someone that can lay down a bunt or pinch run.

My feeling is the impetus was not "we need someone as Reimold insurance" but "we need someone as a defensive replacement and someone that can do the little things late."

Rebuilding or not, Baltimore is still a Major League team thus needs to full its roster with Major League players. If Reimold hits, Reimold will play, case closed. The presence of Chavez is not going to change that.

I'm not saying he's a stud either - hey, if Texas thought well of him, he'd still be in Texas - but if you think that Buck is going to let a ML veteran sit on the bench if Reimold struggles for a prolonged period of time again, that's simply not going to happen. Go no further than your own 2011 dollar values - last year Reimold in a 5x5 only produced 9 units of value, Chavez 8. That's a nice theoretical situation you propose - and in the abstract, it certainly applies as it does to all teams. But Baltimore's improved enough that they are expecting to have a lot more of those types of games? Do they need an OF? Yes - hell, even Mark Kotsay still has a job - doesn't mean you plan on the possibility of Mark Kotsay playing for a prolonged period of time. Reimold has had opportunities to produce before and has flopped ...remember how shocked we all were when he was sent down? Has he gotten any better? Even Duquette won't commit to him being the starting LF. So, there's enough red flags on him to say pass.

[Todd Zola]

FWIW, some of Chavez' PT is due to Nick Markakis possibly getting a late start to the season and his missing a few more games, regardless.

I have Reimold for 75% of the time in LF, which is not quite full time but indicative of a near full time position. The PA are tempered as I have him at the bottom of the order.

The DH position is still a tough read. Is Betemit really going to play regularly or is he Josh Bell insurance <<ducks>> ?

[da_big_kid_94]

Gotta like a funny man ....(wasn't that what Bouton said about Skip Lockwood?). Like I said - it's not the money or the fact that they chose Endy. it's the fact they have no one on the horizon, they have every opportunity to back Reimold, but every quote and action they take seems to indicate their relative lack of confidence in him. A 34 year old Endy should not be a motivational tool for anyone ...but here it seems he might be.