NFBC SLOW DRAFT

[mbendar]

Does anyone have any interest in me posting my picks for the Slow Draft I entered?

It starts tomorrow, and I can post with some analysis/thoughts if people are interested.

Thanks,
Mark

[Todd Zola]

Go nuts!!

If you are more comfortable, you can use the Platinum forum. The site is going to be joining an upcoming Slow Draft and we will get the community opinion before making a pick.

[mbendar]

Todd,
I know you mentioned more people will see it on the public forum. I am comfortable posting on either one if there is interest.

I'll start on this thread tomorrow and post when I can.

I'll start off with my KDS - I usually go 1-15, but mixed it up for this draft.

2,1,3,7,4,10,9,8,6,5,11,12,13,14,15

I am typically more comfortable with a middle pick, but willing to take the downside of reaching early at an end spot for a start of Kemp, Pujols or Cabrera. Before the Braun annoucement, I would have had 3,2,1 as my 1st 3.

I received my 4th choice of pick #7 and planning on Bautista or Cano with my 1st pick. Will advise for sure tomorrow, with the top 6 taken for discussion purposes.

Mark

[Captain Hook]

I like the discussion Mark and those are certainly good first round targets (assuming someone better doesn't fall)

[Black Sox]

Good Luck Mark. I'm really intrested to see how it goes, the more I've been reading about the slow drafts, the more I like the idea. My only hesitation has been I'm just not ready to draft this early. Best of luck though!

[mbendar]

OK- as expected, my 1st pick was Cano - the 1st 6 kind of went to expectations, just not in the order I thought, which was Pujols, Bautista, Kemp, Cabrera, Tulo, AGon and then my Cano. Everyone is pretty excited to draft, as I'm almost up again.

One thing I may have learned through the KDS is to always go 1 deeper than expectations. I didn't think there was any chance the 1st 3 weren't Kemp, Pujols and Cabrera in some order and Bautista sneaked in there. At worst case, I would have got Tulo.

As far as Cano goes, I like a consistent bat with the 1st pick (especially for slow drafts) and his premium position is an added bonus. His stats compare well with the AGon, Votto types, who were probably my top 2 after Cano.

[mbendar]

Round 2 - Victor Martinez

McCutchen, Stanton, Verlander, Wright, Beltre available.

I chose Martinez for a few reasons.

1. As you can tell from 1st 2 picks, I like taking thin positions when everything else is equal, which I thought it was.

2. In a slow draft with no FAAB, I place a high premium on stable, productive catchers. With a decent chance this is the last season he qualifies at C, getting a DH with C eligiblity worth the slight reach.

3. There are flaws with the other 5 I didn't want to take the chance on. Also hoping 1 of the 5 gets back to me, which would be a much more solid pick in my eyes (not counting on, just hoping)

[Todd Zola]

As we are discussing (sort of ) in another thread, the choices in the second round do not thrill me. I think it is because I prefer a safe first two picks and it seems every second rounder has a wart of some sort, usually injury prone or a short short track record. The more I think about it, the more I think that if I am taking a chance anyway with my second round pick, may as well swing for the fences. The other thought is just like mark did and that is take one of the three catchers not catching, but one should be available later.

For the last couple of years, as an example, you could pretty much book me for Matt Holliday in the second.

[TheRunner77]

Thanks for posting your picks.

Can you tell us who went in the 2nd Round before you selected VMart?

I too am taken aback by 2nd round selections -- there are compromises to be made on several levels -- if it's not the lack of track record, it's some injury-prone guy or severely injured player, or a guy who has unexplainingly gone AWOL even if he used to be a high ranking staple.

[mbendar]

the 2nd round was:

kershaw, hramirez, tex, holliday, kinsler, halladay, reyes and hamilton before my pick.

was hoping reyes or halladay would get to me but wasn't counting on it.

[Todd Zola]

I'll be writing about it when we finish, but in an NFBC-style draft Perry and I are doing, my swing for the fences second rounder was Nelson Cruz. This followed Cano in the first. This is one of the more bizarre drafts of this nature I can remember, and my squad is going to be fairly representative of the WTF? nature of the picks.

We will have a full writeup in early January.

[mbendar]

Todd - it's funny you should mention Cruz.

My 3rd pick was Jered Weaver - Beltre was still available but decided to go with the best option at SP instead of guessing who would make it back.

My 4th pick was Nelson Cruz - made the pick for the reason Todd mentioned - the potential home run pick. Big difference is I got him 25 picks later, so if he doesn't have the home run season, his usual numbers are more manageable here. Either way, thought the "value" here was too good to pass up. He was without question the best OF left on the board.

[Todd Zola]

Todd - it's funny you should mention Cruz.

My 3rd pick was Jered Weaver - Beltre was still available but decided to go with the best option at SP instead of guessing who would make it back.

My 4th pick was Nelson Cruz - made the pick for the reason Todd mentioned - the potential home run pick. Big difference is I got him 25 picks later, so if he doesn't have the home run season, his usual numbers are more manageable here. Either way, thought the "value" here was too good to pass up. He was without question the best OF left on the board.

I'm not a big ADP guy, if I want someone, I take him. That said, Cruz is someone that I will use an ADP to help guide my thinking -- in March.

[TheRunner77]

In my draft, I had a choice between selecting either King Felix or Cruz and then risk losing Felix and go to Hamels.

I chose Felix (end of third round, felt it was great value) and then the next drafter predictably selected Cruz. On the following pick, I went with Jay Bruce. Also, given that I am carrying an injury-prone player in I Kinsler, I thought Bruce was a better fit for me (also available at the time, Hart and S Victorino).

So far:

E Longoria
I Kinsler
Felix Hernandez
J. Bruce

[mbendar]

5th pick - Brian McCann

This wasn't in my plan but Victor Martinez really wasn't either - once I took Martinez, I like having a decisive advantage over everyone with McCann at C2. Of course, now the challenge is finding the 1b and 3b that will give me sufficient stats to add to the advantage I have at catcher.

[mbendar]

My 6-16 picks are below:

6. CHart
7. BWilson
8. DGordon
9. GGonzalez
10. Moustakas
11. YDarvish
12. Goldschmidt
13. Nathan
14. THunter
15. Cueto
16. Melky C

[Black Sox]

Round 2 - Victor Martinez

McCutchen, Stanton, Verlander, Wright, Beltre available.

I chose Martinez for a few reasons.

1. As you can tell from 1st 2 picks, I like taking thin positions when everything else is equal, which I thought it was.

2. In a slow draft with no FAAB, I place a high premium on stable, productive catchers. With a decent chance this is the last season he qualifies at C, getting a DH with C eligiblity worth the slight reach.

3. There are flaws with the other 5 I didn't want to take the chance on. Also hoping 1 of the 5 gets back to me, which would be a much more solid pick in my eyes (not counting on, just hoping)

Mark,

Thanks again for posting the picks and letting people comment. IMO not a fan of the V Mart pick ( made worse by the fact that you were able to grab McCann 3 rounds later ) the "advantage" VMart gives you at C is off set by the stats you lose by selecting him there. I mean 12 hr's no SB from my 2nd rd pick are not going to cut it. I was a big fan of early C selections when the choices were Piazza & I Rod not BA helpers like Mauer & VMart. I can see the case for Cano but in my opinion the pick is Votto and then coming back I'd be inclined to go Stanton/McCutchen or Crawford ( who I think rebounds and is back next year as a rd 1 pick ) Normally I would prefer to go 1b/3b but I'm not sold on the 3b's available in rd 2. I agree with Todd I haven't been thrilled with what's available in Rd 2, but as you can see from your draft the corner position dry up quickly.

Just an aside what pick did Braun go? Just wondering when they announce his suspension whether or not he slips to the 2nd round where I'll be waiting to pounce

[mbendar]

Steve,
We can agree to disagree. In regards to Cano, he was equal or better than Votto everywhere at a thinner position. If Votto returns to his MVP form, than yes, he'll outpeform Cano, but Cano is clearly the best hitter on his team now and should be the #3 hitter all year - I can't see his stats getting worse. I like stability in a 1st pick and after Pujols and Cabrera, he is probably next in knowing what you'll get barring injury.

In regards to VMart, I think his avg will decrease and hr's will go up. Over 100 RBI's is huge for a C, and hitting behind Cabrera should get him close to or better than that total if he stays healthy, which hopefully won't be a problem at DH. It was a clear decision of mine to pass on Stanton and McCutchen, as a .250-.260 avg isn't a great thing of a 2nd round pick either. If they explode in their development and hit closer to .300, it would be an obvious mistake.

Braun went I think 3rd round 5th pick. Thanks for the comments.

Mark

[mbendar]

To quote Clubhouse Confidential, I'll throw my team to "the shredder" and see if there are any thoughts. I'll start off that I'm not happy with my team, but to be expected because I've played these the last 2 years without the proper preparation. Work gets crazy for me in Jan & Feb, and signing up for the Dec ones is the only chance I have to play them. I'll list by position instead of round.

C VMartinez, BMcCann, DRoss, BPena
1b Goldschmidt, Helton, LaRoche
2b Cano, Andino, MEllis
SS DGordon, Lowrie, YBetancourt, HakLee
3b Moustakas, Figgins (counting on Andino and Lowrie for depth here also)
of NCruz, CHart, THunter, MelkyC, AHuff, Matsui, Ibanez, BGuyer,SDuncan, JBenson, RAnkiel
ut Vlad

SP JWeaver, GGonzalez, YDarvish, JCueto, JMasterson, JSantana, EVolquez, AAceves (so I think, but if RP, that's OK), ESurkamp, CCarrasco, CVillaneuva (maybe), KMcClellan, MHarvey, DiceK, RDeLaRosa (50th round, hoping for August comeback)

RP BWilson, Nathan, KRod, MAdams, SCasilla, ACashner (hopefully SP), TSaito

Mark

[Todd Zola]

I think if your pitching holds up, you will be a lot happier about your team in October than you appear to be now.

You did something I thought about and that is going real strong at catcher and getting enough reserves at other positions that you make up for "lost production" by taking catchers early by having better subs. Of course, this assumes the catchers stay healthy.

The more you get into this format and see different strategies, the more interesting it becomes.

[Captain Hook]

Mark I think you did very well in that draft

1) You have good depth in the hitting positions
2) You have almost enough pitchers but if Aceves starts that will help and big plus if Santana comes back

I think this is a contending team

Now one thing I don't like is that your third and fourth catchers are not/will not be very playable (absent injury to someone in front of them).

[mbendar]

Thanks Todd and Perry for your comments.

I have almost the opposite on both sides of the box. I think I cannot afford for my hitters, especially Moustakas, to be busts, as I don't have a lot of upside there. I appreciate the depth comments, as I always try to get the depth necessary to not have an empty spot with no FAAB.

My pitching is the exact opposite - I have a lot of risk that can turn out to be a great staff, particularly Darvish, Santana, Volquez and Aceves. I'll find out in a few days whether this team takes a big hit - I'm assuming Texas will find a way to get Darvish signed.

Perry - agree on the catchers - Ross was simply to protect against a McCann injury so that was planned all along and with no FAAB, just wanted a 4th C. It may have been a better plan to just take 3 catchers and staff an extra pitcher, but what's done is done.

Mark

[Captain Hook]

No Mark I think four catchers are a necessity in this format but even moreso when you have a VMart that you can play elsewhere IF your third catcher is playable.
1) I like Ross - he actually is a good hitter but doesn't get enough AB
2) The problem is that I don't Pena will get many this year and again absent injury not have any weeks where you can play him if you want/have to
3) Sure you always want to play VMart as a catcher.....I heard some people thinking that way too loud when they read my comment above - BUT in this format with no replacements you could easily have a problem at CI for a week or two and want to have extra options.

[mbendar]

Perry - I can only hope with 4 options at 1b that I don't have to play VMart at 1b/CI/U at some point in 2012

Just as an FYI, because of my early selections of my 2 catchers, I waited very long to take the backups - Ross was 39th round and Pena 44th round - a luxury I wouldn't have had without VMart and McCann - the pickings for playing time were pretty slim at the point I took my backups.

In general, I, as I'm sure others do, like to have as much position flexibility as possible in this format and agree with your statement about VMart, which I certainly will lose out on if I have to play him somewhere else but C.

Mark

[deansdaddy]

Good job Mark - I think you did real well.

Only pick I think you gave away was C Carrasco. Coming off TJ surgery - I don't think you are going to see him this year.

Shelly Duncan nice late grab. If the Indians don't sign a FA 1B - he's going to get a lot of extra AB's there.

[mbendar]

Thanks Ryan. I picked up SDuncan for my auction team late last year and hopeful I can get some of that production in 2012 - I guess you could say he's an upside pick on the hitting side for where I got him, but playing time will of course dictate that.

I kept asking myself why Carrasco was still on the board - whereever I went to get info didn't have the TJ surgery unfortunately. I knew something was up, but dropped the ball there - he was in the 40's, but still a wasted pick.

[mbendar]

Well my team just took a big hit - the plus and minus of drafting early - a non-baseball related injury takes my 2nd pick out with Victor. A punch right to the jaw - hopefully I don't get another with Yu Darvish tomorrow.

Mark