Wei-Yin Chen

[WillRoy]

He's younger than Wada and some of the sources I've read think he's the better of the two.

Baltimore is courting him too. Is there reason to believe more in Chen than some of the recent NPB players or Wada for that matter? (Busts like Kawakami/Dice/Igawa etc).

I see the younger age and seeming smaller increase in Innings pitched from year to year (especially compared with other NPB starters) and think "Buy!".

Although he K'ed a fair deal less and his K rate is lower than previous seasons (as well as his velocity) which says: Extra risk.

[Todd Zola]

Personally, he doesn't do much for me, primarily because there is so much good, young pitching already available if you are in chance-taking mode. I really hate these comps but I see him as much Hideki Okajima as anything, though younger.

[Captain Hook]

He's younger than Wada and some of the sources I've read think he's the better of the two.

Baltimore is courting him too. Is there reason to believe more in Chen than some of the recent NPB players or Wada for that matter? (Busts like Kawakami/Dice/Igawa etc).

I see the younger age and seeming smaller increase in Innings pitched from year to year (especially compared with other NPB starters) and think "Buy!".

Although he K'ed a fair deal less and his K rate is lower than previous seasons (as well as his velocity) which says: Extra risk.

Really depends on what kind of league you are looking at and in general (unless you have an immediate need) it is way too early to decide - see how he looks and spring training and almost more important where he signs and how they plan on using him

[WillRoy]

I actually have 3 MiLB drafts/Int'l player drafts before late Feb....

one in Dec, one in Jan, and one in Feb.

Okajima is an interesting comp. Hmmmmm...

[TheRunner77]

He's younger than Wada and some of the sources I've read think he's the better of the two.

Baltimore is courting him too. Is there reason to believe more in Chen than some of the recent NPB players or Wada for that matter? (Busts like Kawakami/Dice/Igawa etc).

I see the younger age and seeming smaller increase in Innings pitched from year to year (especially compared with other NPB starters) and think "Buy!".

Although he K'ed a fair deal less and his K rate is lower than previous seasons (as well as his velocity) which says: Extra risk.

Really depends on what kind of league you are looking at and in general (unless you have an immediate need) it is way too early to decide - see how he looks and spring training and almost more important where he signs and how they plan on using him

If you're drafting now looking for a 2012 contributor, are you not better off with Chen than some AA/AAA prospects who get a lot of hype but who for the most part will have limited MLB PT opportunities or impact in 2012?

[Captain Hook]

Depends on several factors.....
1) What Chen's role will be - remembering he will be playing on a losing team and facing the Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays a lot
2) Which prospect you are talking about and how good they will be if/when they are called up - also who they are pitching for

[TheRunner77]

Captain, when you say he'll be playing on a losing team, have I missed something? Did someone sign him?

I thought he was still available. Last news item I saw had the Yanks showing interest in him, but not as a starter:

The Yankees reportedly have interest in Chen as a reliever (I imagine his fastball would play up nicely in the ‘pen), though thus far it is unclear whether Chen views himself as a starter in the bigs (and more importantly, whether any other big league teams view him as one).

As for the 2nd part of your post, fully agreed -- it depends who we're talking about. I used the word "some" in my post, to signify that we can't lump them all in the same basket. However, it is safe to say that there aren't a lot of prospects that are worth their salt in the context of one-year leagues -- most of them see little to no playing time, or worse, end up damaging your ratio stats as they adapt to the majors. The key lies in being able to limit one's risk by identifying those prospects who appear most likely to both earn PT and have a positive impact on your stat sheet.

[WillRoy]

Captain, when you say he'll be playing on a losing team, have I missed something? Did someone sign him?

The O's appear to be the likely destination. But guessing is tough.

On the other points you made, although I agree talent directly to MLB is great as opposed to waiting a bit for seasoning, most top 10 prospects do make it to the bigs and stick around for a few years. I read some things on BP for that actually when I second-guessed my friend and why he went for these completely unproven guys first (who would almost always break out) like Hamilton. Post-hype or whatever.

I'm not so good at super-early prospecting for odd names like Goldschmidt a year ago but am OK at nabbing the Bautistas, Mclouths, etc before they hit the waiver wire in reserve rounds (hit a lot in sept before the breakout).