Assuming it's the AL West ...

[da_big_kid_94]

that gets the Astros;

• How much do values of Ranger and Angel players go up with a full slate of games against the Stros included?
• How will MLB compensate for scheduling issues - is the "balanced" schedule finally done?

[Todd Zola]

I'll take the first part -- none, at least when it comes to an objective projection engine.

Intuitively, it seems like they "should", but the noise in small samples, which this is, masks anything we can quantify. One outlier game and BOOM, the numbers are out of whack.

Obviously, in 3-5 years this will flesh itself out on its own (depending on how many years are used to establish a baseline), but until then, I am not going to make any adjustments to the engine.

That said, this game is all about our subjective assessments.

[da_big_kid_94]

Curious and interesting response ... this will take some pondering ... I know quality of opponent really can't (hoo boy ...my error ...10/14/11) be quantified here so it may not fit the model - but an additional 12-18 games (guesstimate) against both Houston and NL opponents rather than the possibility of against the AL East (again ...can't tell till we see the schedules) - especially if those NL opponents come out of the NL West - might make us want to adjust our thinking for those items we can't quite put our fangers on.

[Todd Zola]

I'll talk to Gary and see what he thinks -- maybe we can come up with a means to evaluate, hence incorporate division impact.

Of course, there will be no way we can account for how player movement changes the following season expectations so we'll need to go on previous year(s) numbers.

Also, I would only adjust players moving to another division, since, as suggested, the effect, if there is one, is already built into the player's numbers, which in turn are used as a foundation for future performance.

The idea would be an additional adjustment would have been made on Adrian Gonzalez moving from Petco to Fenway, over and above the park effect alteration for half his game due to park effect. There would be a second adjustment made to his road games because of "opponent effect." Same for Matt Garza going from the Trop to Wrigley last season, and everyone else switching divisions.