AL Keepers

[yankee7]

10 team 5x5 AL Only 10% inflation

We are allowed 5 keepers...My top 4 are...

Brett Gardner...$13
Colby Lewis...$6
Gio Gonzalez...$6
Brandon League...$2

Not great choices for #5...Who do you recommend?

JJ Hardy...$8
Danny Valencia...$4
Mike Napoli...$16
Michael Brantley...$6
Derek Holland...$4
Brian Duensing...$3
Dallas Braden...$3
Carlos Carrasco...$2

Thanks.

[cwk1963]

I like Braden out of all of them. If you don't want to keep 4 pitchers then either Valencia or Brantley.

[AllstonRockCity]

I like Braden at 2 as well, but I really like Hardy at 8.

The lineup is stacked. The ballpark is favorable. Even in a worst case scenario, he won't kill your BA, in a best case scenario, he pops 25 bombs.

[da_big_kid_94]

My vote goes to Braden as well.

[Captain Hook]

10 team 5x5 AL Only 10% inflation

We are allowed 5 keepers...My top 4 are...

Brett Gardner...$13
Colby Lewis...$6
Gio Gonzalez...$6
Brandon League...$2

Not great choices for #5...Who do you recommend?

JJ Hardy...$8
Danny Valencia...$4
Mike Napoli...$16
Michael Brantley...$6
Derek Holland...$4
Brian Duensing...$3
Dallas Braden...$3
Carlos Carrasco...$2

Thanks.

1) You don't say anything about roster requirements, but

2) If this is a two catcher league I think it is 110% clear to keep Napoli at $16 - he could earn twice that much and give you a huge edge on other owners.

3) I would keep Duensing at $3 over a couple of pitchers you list as keepers

[yankee7]

It is a 2 catcher league.

Which of my keeper pitchers are you not high on?

[Captain Hook]

It is a 2 catcher league.

Which of my keeper pitchers are you not high on?

I didn't say I wasn't high on them......I said I like Duensing at $3 better

1) I would keep Duensing over League who may start the year as the Mariner's closer but I doubt holds the job - great arm, poor command

2) I understand wanting to keep the cheap saves though, so if you want to keep League, I would keep Duensing over Gonzalez - fewer strikeouts for sure but better ratios

[AllstonRockCity]

2) If this is a two catcher league I think it is 110% clear to keep Napoli at $16 - he could earn twice that much and give you a huge edge on other owners.

Really, Napoli will earn $32?? I'm sorry, but he would have to play every day and hit better than 260 for that to be an even remote possibility.

Yorvit Torrealba is still the primary catcher is he not?

And Michael Young is still the primary DH, is he not?

Napoli is expected to split time at these 2 spots and occasionally at 1B, correct?

Am I missing something here?

[Captain Hook]

2) If this is a two catcher league I think it is 110% clear to keep Napoli at $16 - he could earn twice that much and give you a huge edge on other owners.

Really, Napoli will earn $32?? I'm sorry, but he would have to play every day and hit better than 260 for that to be an even remote possibility.

Yorvit Torrealba is still the primary catcher is he not?

And Michael Young is still the primary DH, is he not?

Napoli is expected to split time at these 2 spots and occasionally at 1B, correct?

Am I missing something here?

What I think is that Napoli will start against almost ALL LHP (I don't care whether it is at DH, 1B, or C). I think he will also get lots of AB during the games against LHP....and I think he will start against some RHP (especially those where his history suggest that).

Bottom line is he will get more than 400 at bats for the Rangers, half of them in Arlington
If Moreland is not good, or if Young is traded then he will get a lot more AB
The ideal DH would be a Napoli/Murphy platoon (which is why I think the Rangers would even consider trading Young). But don't forget that several Rangers have histories which suggest they won't even come close to 85% of possible AB. That means a ton of AB for Young and thus a lot for Napoli.

Yes Torrealba is the primary catcher - at least against RHP (he too will get over 400 AB)

[aburt19]

I play in a 10 team, AL only 5x5 league.

There is no way I keep Napoli at $16. CVRC with hitting at 68% values Napoli at $9. In order for him to be worth more than
$16, he would have to almost double the stats projected by MB. He would need somewhere around 38-39 HR, 90 runs
scored and about 100 RBI.

[AllstonRockCity]

I play in a 10 team, AL only 5x5 league.

There is no way I keep Napoli at $16. CVRC with hitting at 68% values Napoli at $9. In order for him to be worth more than
$16, he would have to almost double the stats projected by MB. He would need somewhere around 38-39 HR, 90 runs
scored and about 100 RBI.

You are preaching to the choir my friend. And those numbers seem about right, he would need to get to those, cuz he ain't hitting any higher than 270, and probably lower.

[Captain Hook]

I should really leave the numbers stuff to Todd - but every once in a while the scout has to pipe up.

In the last set of projections we have Napoli for only 358 AB - here is the line (hoping this copies well)

Napoli, Mike A TEX C1B 358 91 21 2 21 179 50 58 40 103 4 2 8 4 0.254 0.339 0.500 $11 $11

Okay, if Napoli gets 100 more AB how does he look?
If he gets 459 AB he projects to 28 home runs
And what if he only improve his BAvg ten points to .264?**

btw did I mention that he is moving from Anaheim stadium to Arlington?

** do YOU know what his current average is?
True it won't be that high during the season but don't forget that a platoon heavy split of AB and catching a lot less will both impact his hitting positively.


And btw, IF I could get Napoli for $16 in my AL keeper league this year, I would laugh all the way to the bank.

[AllstonRockCity]

i know this math isn't correct, but it can't be that far off either.

if 360 AB yields $11 then even 500 AB yields only $15.

Do I think he can earn $16? yes.

Would I be willing to pay $16 at auction to find out? most likely not

Do I think he can earn $32, which is what started this whole thing? when pigs fly

I will say I do really appreciate your cactus league notes and you keeping us abreast of all the newest developments and what your keen eye tells you. But sometimes, I just gotta disagree.

But, thank you Perry.

its the back and forth that I love/learn best from.

keep up the good work

[Todd Zola]

I play in a 10 team, AL only 5x5 league.

There is no way I keep Napoli at $16. CVRC with hitting at 68% values Napoli at $9. In order for him to be worth more than
$16, he would have to almost double the stats projected by MB. He would need somewhere around 38-39 HR, 90 runs
scored and about 100 RBI.

FWIW, it's not quite that drastic. He has to double his useful stats over replacement.

A quick example is we have him at $10 in 12 team 5x5 with 358 AB. Give him 450 AB and his value is $14.

This is with an average of .254. If you believe he will hit for higher than .254, his value goes up more.

So if you feel he will

1. get more AB
2. hit over .254

$16 is justifiable.

[aburt19]

IF it's a 12 team league that might be true. The original post was a 10 team league which normally would deflate value
slightly. Regardless, at $16 he might be worth that, but there is almost no chance for profit. I don't carry over players
that requires a 33% increase in the projected stats to break even.

[Todd Zola]

IF it's a 12 team league that might be true. The original post was a 10 team league which normally would deflate value
slightly. Regardless, at $16 he might be worth that, but there is almost no chance for profit. I don't carry over players
that requires a 33% increase in the projected stats to break even.

Understood about the 10 and 12 team comparison, I sort of made the leap of faith in my posting that the 10 team numbers would be a little lower.

They key, however, is if you agree with the projection. He needs 33% more production if you agree. If you don't, the difference may not be as extreme.

Also, there are inflation and availability concerns as well, which may lead to Napoli being a viable keeper at that price. If it is going to cost that much to pick up an AJP or Suzuki in the auction, then it may be better to keep Napoli and take your chances finding some low end profit in the OF, which is a little easier in a 10 team league than a 12 team league.

FWIW, I have given Napoli about 60 more PA. I have not run values yet, but he will likely come in $12-$14 now.

[Captain Hook]

Still a few weeks to get final numbers but was thinking about this and wanted to get it off the back pages....

now 26 HR with a .300+ BAvg

profit even at a $16 salary

[special k]

Is the larger message in this thread to protect your hitters, rather than your pitchers, given the fates of Duensing and Braden?
Either Napoli or Hardy were the best choices, given the wonderful wisdom of hindsight and the fragility and unpredictability of pitching. I am tied for first in my AL-only 5x5 10-team league now with exactly two of my nine pitchers remaining on my staff from Opening Day: Hernandez at list and Walden for $3.

Tomlin: Traded in a deal for Romero.
Hughes: Hurt and then ditched.
Matusz: Shudder.
Braden: There's your fragility argument.
Fuentes: Ditched as soon as Bailey returned.
Carrasco: Hello, TJ surgery.
Pineiro: DL, and then ugh.

Among my FA pickups: Downs, McCarthy, Colon, Peralta, Francisco, Aceves.

[Captain Hook]

special k - Because hitters are more predictable than pitchers, in general the answer would be yes. BUT finding enough good pitching in any league is tough, so I think the answer is to keep elite SP, closers, and cheap upside pitchers. I would not keep developing young pitchers unless they had salaries in the $1-3 dollar range or were projected STUDS (Pineda or Hellickson from the start of this year)

[Todd Zola]

I think the adage to always protect hitters over pitchers is becoming a bit outdated for two reasons.

1. I am not so sure it is still easier to predict hitters anymore -- this is something that GaryJ has also talked about this summer. Or maybe, the better way to say it is we have a better idea of how pitchers are SUPPOSED to do than previously but pitchers are still subject to more VARIABILITY due to things OUT OF THEIR CONTROL than hitters.

2. I don't think the injury argument works anymore as SO MANY hitters are now getting hurt as well.

I have always preached to keep pitching in dynasty formats, I now think it is no longer a cardinal sin to freeze pitching in standard keeper leagues either, especially since, as Perry suggests, it is quality pitching. Just think how much quality pitching will be inflated at your auction.

[special k]

You know, I always zigged when everyone zagged and spent money on pitching, and it served me well. ever since the day I traded Eric Davis for Jimmy Key. I've won my league 10 out of about 20 years. Been playing a while. My first team had Chili Davis, Cal Ripken, Harold Baines and Manny Lee.
But three years ago I convinced by hidebound colleagues to convert to FAAB. It seems pitchers are available every year who slip through the cracks.And I may win this year despite devastating injuries to almost half of my staff: Matusz, Braden, Hughes, Carrasco, and many of their replacements at one point or another (Ross, Colon, McCarthy etc.)
Hitters in my league get hurt, and there's doodly and squat to replace them with. A pitcher goes down, and at the very worst there's an MR with an ERA under 3 and a WHIP of 1.2.
So, I agree, keep those top pitchers. I protected Hernandez for $31. I was a fool to protect Matusz and Hughes, though, even at list.
I still think hitters may be at least a slightly better bet, and we may be over-thinking it.
I mean, look at the Red Sox staff. Did you think they had enough starting pitching at the beginning of the year? Then their starters began dropping like IQ points of US Weekly readers.

[Todd Zola]

I still think hitters may be at least a slightly better bet, and we may be over-thinking it.
I mean, look at the Red Sox staff. Did you think they had enough starting pitching at the beginning of the year? Then their starters began dropping like IQ points of US Weekly readers.

I agree, slightly better, makes for a decision with players at the margins whereas in the past, it was hitters without a thought given to pitchers, regardless.

As for the Red Sox example, you can counter that by saying look at the Yankees - who would have thought Nova, Garcia and Colon would have been viable parts for AL only staffs?

[special k]

I agree, whodathunkit?

Nova went for $1 on Opening Day, Garcia and Colon were free agent pickups in my league. I got Colon, the team now a half-point ahead of me in first has Garcia.

So, yes, the point may stand there's a lot more decent and unpredictable FA pitching available than hitting. To be fair, we have only three reserves per team allowed, however. I should say FA or reserve pitching available.

[Captain Hook]

Okay bumping to review final numbers for Mike Napoli

30 home runs
75 runs batten in
72 runs scored
.320 batting average
and for dessert 4 stolen bases

early guesses on Todd's actual value for AL only leagues?

[da_big_kid_94]

I'm guessing $31-35.

[Todd Zola]

Okay bumping to review final numbers for Mike Napoli

30 home runs
75 runs batten in
72 runs scored
.320 batting average
and for dessert 4 stolen bases

early guesses on Todd's actual value for AL only leagues?

Like I need more shit to do...

[Captain Hook]

I'm guessing $31-35.

straight numbers I think would be on low side of that - more likely $28 or 29 but in a two catcher league I agree it feels like $30+

[da_big_kid_94]

Like I need more shit to do...

Oh, come on .... like you really weren't going to get around to eventually doing this.

[Todd Zola]

Okay bumping to review final numbers for Mike Napoli

30 home runs
75 runs batten in
72 runs scored
.320 batting average
and for dessert 4 stolen bases

early guesses on Todd's actual value for AL only leagues?

And the answer is $25

[AllstonRockCity]

so, not $32 then

its been one crazy summer. i never thought having 2 babies would be so time consuming. what the hell was I thinking? sorry I've been away.

I sure hope this guy protected Hardy at $8 like I thought he should. What a great year he had. And his 30th HR was just the special-ist (angry Sox fan alert)

I've missed you guys.