Raburn?

[special k]

Seems like he has a chance to be the starting 2b for the Tigers despite his awful start. Expectations he will turn it around?

[Captain Hook]

I think he will get the majority of AB at second base....how productive? quien sabe but for the most part he is an upgrade over MI available in most AL leagues - there will be some home runs for sure

[Trav The Ump]

Perry, with the play of Dirks so far does that help Raburn's case for 2b? It would seem right now Casper Wells would be the guy to go when Ordonez is back as he is barely playing.

They called up Kelly and Rhymes is in AAA but do either really stand a shot at being better than Raburn in the short term? I can't see it.

Of note in regards to the Sizemore trade, does this hurt Rosales? It seems like he is now one of a bunch of guys all with the same sort of skills/ position eligibility in Oakland.

[special k]

Went with Raburn in my AL-only team to replace Plouffe. Had a choice between snagging him on waivers for sure or submitting a possibly competitive FAAB bid for Sean Rodriquez.
Interesting choice, both being given a shot to stick in the starting lineup after disappointing early returns. Seemed like Raburn had less real competition, and Tigers desperately need the guy who ripped the ball in the second half last year (for me, too). Also, I need the HRs/RBIs more than SBs.
But I hope Raburn snaps out of this funk. Any idea what's up? Just a bad streak? Mechanics?

[Todd Zola]

Of note in regards to the Sizemore trade, does this hurt Rosales? It seems like he is now one of a bunch of guys all with the same sort of skills/ position eligibility in Oakland.

I think Beane is doing his usual trick of accumulating trade chips. He will likely trade someone (doesn't have to be Sizemore) for someone better than Purcey.

[Todd Zola]

Any idea what's up? Just a bad streak? Mechanics?

Striking out 38% of his at bats. I can't read the data well enough to tell you what pitches are causing issues, etc. (yes, the data is available, but others have blown past me with respect to understanding it).

Sticking to the more general approach, he has always fanned too much and unless a guy has a track record of striking out a lot yet being productive, he is a risk. Not to mention, ask Dunn and Uggla owners how they feel about their guys WITH a track record.

[Captain Hook]

Perry, with the play of Dirks so far does that help Raburn's case for 2b? It would seem right now Casper Wells would be the guy to go when Ordonez is back as he is barely playing.

They called up Kelly and Rhymes is in AAA but do either really stand a shot at being better than Raburn in the short term? I can't see it.

Of note in regards to the Sizemore trade, does this hurt Rosales? It seems like he is now one of a bunch of guys all with the same sort of skills/ position eligibility in Oakland.

No Raburn was handed first shot at the job with the Sizemore trade....in fact Dirks playing so well lessened Raburn's likelihood of AB in the outfield

[special k]

Interesting point, but many of the best hitters in history have struck out a lot, too - Mantle and Ruth, to name two. And Dunn and Uggla certainly have enjoyed their fair share of success, Dunn in particular, on a sustained basis, despite the Ks. And Raburn struck out 152 times in 701 bats (22%) in the past two years while amassing OPS of .891 and .814 respectively. And last year's OPS was much higher in the second half when he played regularly, for sure, although I'm not going to take the time to break that out.
So why the 56 in 149 this year remains the million dollar question, I guess. It could just be small sample size, eyesight, pressing a la Crawford, or just a slow start. But it would seem 700ABs over two years for a guy who just turned 30 is a reasonable predictor.

[Todd Zola]

But it would seem 700ABs over two years for a guy who just turned 30 is a reasonable predictor.

No, actually it is not.

My point with Dunn and Uggla is they indeed have a track record and are struggling. Of course, the counter argument is there are a lot of hitters that do not strike out as much that are struggling as well.

The primary point with high K hitters is they are more susceptible to a lower batting average if they also have an unlucky BABIP.

With respect to Ruth and Mantle, Ruth's contact rate was 84% which is excellent for a power hitter.

Mantle's contact was 79%, right around the threshold of 80%, but since he walked as many times as he whiffed, that counters the slightly higher K-level.

[special k]

Well, certainly didn't meat to compare Raburn to Mantle and Ruth!
Point well taken about fluctuation in BA for high-K hitters, but why isn't 700 ABs a reasonable predictor for success, unless for an older player, even for a high-K player, except for BA? Please understand, I'm not disagreeing, just trying to learn. Seems like one could expect a few balls to fly over the fence, for example, thus, negating the chance for fielders to affect his stats.
Thanks.

[Todd Zola]

700 AB is basically a 162 game season.

Most projections systems use a weighted average of 3 years as the base.

That said, there is ample history to say Raburn's power is real. What we don't know is if he can make enough contact to stay in the lineup long enough for it to manifest. While I am not comparing him to Russell Branyan, there is a similar profile in that Branyan's power is prodigious, but so is his K-rate. The year's Branyan gets off to fast starts, he sticks around. Those he struggles, he is released.

[special k]

But does it matter if the season's worth of ABs are spread over two seasons, like Raburn's, as opposed to being grouped in one season? It seems like one could make an argument that two partial seasons of success demonstrates more sustained quality than one season. I wonder if this has ever been studied.

[Todd Zola]

Everything has been studied

[special k]

Then I shall take your word for it!
And hope Ryan snaps out of his suckitude, for whatever reason it began and for whatever reason it (hopefully) ends.
Now don't we have a barbecue to attend?

[Todd Zola]

The main thing to remember is all we can do with research is determine what "should" happen. This does not mean it WILL happen.

OK, two things...

Raburn owners (and I resemble that) can take some solace in Leyland pretty much defines old school and could give a rat's ass about K-rate and the like. His leash should be pretty long. As Boesch showed us last season, players of this ilk can not only be cold, but can also get really hot and stay that way.