Hold or Punt?

[Bodhizefa]

Ryan Dempster: I'm holding (in 14-teamers or larger) because the K-rates remain high. Still, yesterday was ugggggly. As an aside, until yesterday, I thought Dempster's big problem was that the Cubs' new manager had failed to take him out when he was obviously tired. That theory doesn't hold up when you're giving up 7 runs in the first inning, though.

Javier Vazquez: Punt. I'd hoped a return to the NL would be just what the doctor ordered, but he's been atrocious in every way imaginable. The world doesn't feel quite right without him being a productive pitcher in fantasy, so I hope he finds some semblance of his old self for the twilight year(s) of his career.

Ted Lilly: Hold. I'm starting him tonight against the Padres, and I still have hopes his ERA corrects itself. It'd be nice if he started to strike out a few more hitters, though, and the Dodgers' outfield defense isn't exactly inspiring right now.

Who else?

[Captain Hook]

Definitely with you and I too am holding Lilly and Dempster

I never drafted Vazquez this year because of the loss of velocity last year (and others thought he would be better and drafted him before I would have)

I am also holding Fernando Rodney in a couple of deep (AL and Mixed) leagues because while Walden has been good so far, it is a long season, and Rodney has improved his pitching in recent outings.

I am on the ledge with Kila Ka'Aihue - I didn't think he would be great but I thought he would have some decent power production. Unfortunately he has been so bad they have tried alternate lineups and the Hosmer Watch is in full bloom in Kansas City (since he is hitting over .400 at AAA)

[Bodhizefa]

At what point do we let Jeter go? I could drop him for Maicer Izturis. At this point, Izturis is looking pretty good.

[da_big_kid_94]

At what point do we let Jeter go? I could drop him for Maicer Izturis. At this point, Izturis is looking pretty good.

Yesterday?

[Bodhizefa]

At what point do we let Jeter go? I could drop him for Maicer Izturis. At this point, Izturis is looking pretty good.

Yesterday?

I've been one of the first in line in previous years to declare a bevy of veterans as "done" only to see them come back and make me look and feel foolish. I was sure Papi was done two years running. I was positive Vlad was torched a couple years ago. I was certain Kearns was toast (lol).

Anyway, we know Jeter is showing signs of aging. But is he really totally kaput? Are 2010 numbers too much to ask for at this point? Is Maicer Izturis better than what we expect going forward from Jeter? I itchy trigger finger says yes, but again, I've been plenty wrong before on this type of call. What makes you so sure, big kid?

[da_big_kid_94]

When I watch the Yankee games on YES, he looks lost. He seems to have no confidence in his swing. All of that wonderful press fodder about how he was working on his swing in the off season and in ST is now forgotten. And I'm also seeing that umps are expanding his strike zone - that inside automatic ball isn't so automatic any more - and I think that's a problem because I don't think he can get around on it any more. And word seems to be traveling fast.

And to me most significant is that his K% is down - 6 points over last year overall ... I know ...so isn't that a good thing? Should be - so why is his BABIP at .264? Especially if his walk range is on par with prior years? I think his own personal strike zone is being called into question - even by himself - and he's not figured it out yet. Last year's BABIP was a BIG drop overall ...but this is 30 points worse than last year. And this is Yankee Stadium we're talking about.

I know it's anecdotal - but I don't see Derek Jeter out there too much these days - I see some guy wearing number 2 and being introduced by a dead man.

And to ice the cake, a little something from Eric Halllman at FanGraphs;

Cap’n Jeets was ranked in our second tier of shortstops at the outset, but has continued the poor play of last season that caused such the kerfuffle. He’s obviously not as bad as his triple slash of .219/.282/.234 would suggest, but in 71 plate appearances he’s smacked just one extra base hit. His contact rate is right around his career average and his K% is way down, but he has a GB/GB ratio of 5.38 (!), which is nearly double his career average. Jeter has never been one to hit many fly balls, but when you’re hitting nearly 73% of pitches on the ground, that’s a problem that not even the fastest hitters in baseball could overcome. He still plays in a good lineup located in a good hitter’s park, but so far he’s been slightly more valuable than 0% owned Luis Rodriguez. Not good.

[jkadagio]

On Vazquez, I agree and punted. Are there any supporters here who think he can be solid from here on out? I just looked at the MB rest of year stats and he is in the SP3 range from here on out. I just don't see it. What am I missing?

[Todd Zola]

On Vazquez, I agree and punted. Are there any supporters here who think he can be solid from here on out? I just looked at the MB rest of year stats and he is in the SP3 range from here on out. I just don't see it. What am I missing?

Please keep in mind the rest of year stats are objective and mostly based on what we expected coming into the season, and we were very high on him coming in.

This is one of those huge conundrums for me.

Todd, the guy who produced the RofY projections has an objective system to produce the numbers and is reluctant to apply subjective bias to some players and not others.

Todd, the guy that also plays the game is not looking to buy low on Vazquez and is reserving him where he has him until he shows better skills.

Todd can't believe that Todd just answered a question in the third person.

[deansdaddy]

Well - I have Vazquez in my 12 team DP league - and I just held onto for another week. I have actually put him on the block a couple of times for Ogando and Sanchez, but was outbid and thus still have him around. I guess I'm hopeful he shows something soon - but I will be keeping my lookout for something better. I may even turn his rotation spot into a double-start spot as soon as next week.

[jkadagio]

Todd - I understand the position MB is in with Vazquez and that you were higher on him than most coming into the season, which leads to your RofY projections. At what point would you adjust for a decline in skills for RofY or does that not happen?

He has been sitting as a F/A on my WW since I cut him, so I guess no one else in my league wants to bite either. That being said, I could see myself picking him back up if I saw enough improvement and he was still there. What popped to me in the RofY projections was the 166K in 163IP. If I thought that was likely, I'd probably have more interest in him.

[Bodhizefa]

What popped to me in the RofY projections was the 166K in 163IP. If I thought that was likely, I'd probably have more interest in him.

As would we all, I'm sure. ZIPS projects a fairly drastic improvement for Vazquez as well. The problem we all run into when we look at him on the wire is that we're all human, and not a computer simulation. We see Vazquez suck dramatically and it affects us much moreso than anything we could plug into a program. I wonder what the computer simulation would do if we plugged a video of Vazquez pitching this season into it. Would it scream? Cry?

If I see a glimmer of hope from Vaz, I'll surely pounce. But there's been nothing for the human element in us to grasp onto thus far. And I have a tough time finding hope when it looks so hopeless.

[Bodhizefa]

League had his third crappy outing in a row, and his season line is officially eye-numbing.

The tough part of this equation is that the Mariners don't have a single person who could step in and feasibly be a solid 9th inning option. Lueke struggled mightily in his short stint with the M's this year, and he's not exactly lighting it up in Triple-A. Cortes has massive control problems. Aardsma may be done for the year, and, at the very least, is out for a good long while. The M's don't have anybody else above Single-A who even profiles as a closer type. League may not be a good closer (personally, I think he's always been rather hittable and that his stuff doesn't really translate well to closing as he's generally not a strikeout guy), but I think his leash is fairly long. Those in really deep leagues might be interested in handcuffing him with Jamey Wright, who has been the de facto set-up man since Seattle doesn't really have anyone else. But Wright's nothing more than a stopgap as he's neither as good as League nor as young as 99% of the rest of the American League.

This would be a great time for a guy like Lueke to get super motivated, start kicking butt on the farm, and subsequently rise through the ranks to take over the closing role by August. He's got the arm and the stuff for it, but I think he needs to get his head on straight and start utilizing everything he's got.