Projections or Predictions, Chasing Stats and Skills

[viper]

As the mock draft concludes, I find it interesting how we are often times given conflicting pieces of advise and also the extent we become slaves to numbers which we all know are way less than etched in stone. And lest anyone think I am being critical of them, I am as bad of an offender as the next, maybe worse than most.

We all clamor for projections and will stand by them as long as they are what we expect. If they are too many away from the expected we don't consider that site's projections. Case in point for me in the site where Mark Haverty is right now. I've met Mark and even went to a Nationals game with him. Last year his site [the name escapes me but it isn't important], projected Reyes for about 76 SBs in their early numbers. On that one projection alone, I essentially dismissed any use for that sites numbers. I guess I looked as it as one site's prediction and not a projection . I was fearful that there would be other equally out-of-the-expected numbers. So we find projections that fall into our comfort zone and use them. Well, maybe we use some of them. If we feel a player will outperform the site's numbers, then we boost that players numbers in whatever ranking system we use. Now this is fair. I guess i like tosort of keep the site's projection but note to my self that i like the player to exceed them rather than changing my lists based on my own evaluations. Things like this make the world go round. As i have said, I average Mastersball and BBHQ to get projections. Soon I will post the big difference makers.

So after we get these numbers and associated SGP values or dollar values or whatever, we create some sort of list. Tiers are designed to make us move away from best-available drafting but after every pick many chart their projected number and compared it to a target. You can't tell me that come the middle of a draft you don't make picks based more on reaching/exceeding your target rather than taking players based on skill sets. This mock draft has several significant reaches for steals when much more accomplished overall players at the same position were available. My guess is that several of these mid-draft reaches were not even in the group of position players with positive dollar values. Isn't the mere fact we assign targets and keep track of where we stand in relation to those targets mean we are chasing our projected stats. And when a draft is compete, we quickly run some type of automated software which tells us where we stand as if this also will tell us if we will win. I know I do however, in this case, Todd is doing it for us with a variation of ZIGGY. When you mock draft as MDC, you can get multiple standings. Last year they used numbers from two sites [was it three?]. At the conclusions you could see how you did on each site individual and how you did on the averaged projections. I recall one set of results where I was 1st and 7th out of 15. I much preferred the results from the former.

I can't say this post is totally coherent but it has been on my mind. I have had a few picks questioned and that's fine with me. I am trying to not look at numbers but to follow the tiers I created from the 1/1/09 BBHQ projections. Now they have changed a lot over the month and my actual sheet will be severely impacted once the Mastersball numbers are included. Even drafting in tiers is challenging as all they are is the SGP/Dollar value of players groups in a logical manner. Moving down a tier is obviously correct many times. What tiers does show you visually is where gaps in positions exist. The way of properly handling those gaps is worthy of an article from Todd.

Coming up - why ADP sucks

[rotodog]

Viper,

As incoherent as you think you were, i understood most of it. Let me comment on what you wrote.

Shandler wrote in the forecaster this year a 2 page masterpiece about projections and software and how the can be counterproductive. It all made sense to me. As a Former serious roto player, I used every tool available to me to try to win.

I used Grids, tiers, rotolab, PAUL, Draft worksheets, and many homemade excel sheets.... WHy is this relevant to what you mentioned? Because after being away for a while, i realized the same thing you did. People draft to targets in categories instead of Skills and upside.

What I realized this winter for the first time, is that drafting this way and running simulations on the eventual winners has no bearing on the outcome at the end of the year when it counts. If you use Rotolab with projections properly, you should come out as the winner at the end of a draft if you use it right. But WE DONT WANT TO WIN 5 mins after the draft, we want to win on OCT 1st....What happens in between Apr 1 and Oct 1 that alters that outcome? Many things.

The targets we hit in a mock draft or a real draft are almost meaningless because nobody will play everyone of those players active for the whole year. Pitchers especially. You will drop players, add players, make trades, lose some to injury etc.... I have made the mistake of seeing a -2 dollar player in a deep NL only league and not paying a buck for him because the projected playing time and the software said he was a NEGATIVE VALUE PLAYER. But there are cases when that player may get the bulk of those ABS in one stretch while someone is injured to start the year. This would make that Scrub a rosterable player for a month until you can replace him with another player via FA or trade. He may be worth crap in the context of a year, but for a month active, he could kick back positive value.

So preseason dollar values are generated in the context of a full season in comparison to every other players contribution to the stat pool. This is a mistake that pre season Dollar values present and that roto players fall into.

It is more apparent in Deeper leagues or AL/NL only , but it is still relevant in all leagues after the midpoint of the draft or toward the end..

Skills and upside on players with limited time is the way to go I feel. If they pan out, your a winner..If not, you didnt pay much for them and they are easily replaceable....

I may still be looking at targets but I am looking to get a certain amount of stats from a roster spot rather than a certain players stats in that spot on draft day... If I need 65 RBI from my 5th OF to hit a target in a deep AL only league, and David Murphy is projected to get 65 RBI and Nelson CRUZ is slated for 55 RBI because it looks like he and Marlon Byrd are sharing time, I am taking Nelson CRUZ every time. I know thats a terrible example, but you get the idea...

This game is won by the accumulation of stats. It doesnt matter when those stats are generated and how they are spread out..50 RBI for 3 months and none for the last 3 months or 5o RBI over 6 months. In the end, you have 50 RBI. Id rather take 50 quick rbi and scramble to add more over the next 3 months...

One more thing I have learned. People draft players and make trades in a safe manner. They want acceptance with their choices. A player doesn't want to be mocked or have others think he is stupid about his player choices, so they tend to make the "SAFE" choices as not to look stupid. I love to have people to scratch their heads when I make atrade or draft a player... It means I didnt do the SAFE thing and that gives me an advantage.

Think of it this way. In those MARCH MADNESS Basketball pools, you can never win if you take the "SAFE" choices or the favorites because everyone else will be doing the same. WHO wins the BIG POT EVERY YEAR? The guy that picked the most upsets that others didnt or the girlfriend that selected winners based on the team mascot name. The Guy that didnt win is the one that had DUKE, NC, UCONN and Louisville in the final four....because everyone else picked them too...

Now , how is that for incoherent ? I dont understand half of what I just said either, but it does make sense to me...

[viper]

two very long posts that have many people shaking their heads and saying "huh!"

It made sense to me.

[rotodog]

two very long posts that have many people shaking their heads and saying "huh!"

It made sense to me.

If I understood you and you understood me, then we both have problems....

But I would like to hear others views on these two posts. Positive or not...

[Tig]

I have never drafted using targets. I know several people do and i see them plugging there players #'s in after they draft them to see where they are. Again, I have never done it, but as you said above, it seems to me that in general, those teams are always "reaching" for players too early, therefore, letting the better overall players fall to me.

I've always drafted based on skill sets/projections. I guess you could call it "the best player available method for the whole draft".

granted, i do not play NFBC and all my leagues allow trading. So, once the season starts, I am able to take my players with better skillsets/more value and trade for specific targets/categories that I may be lacking in.

[viper]

Leagues that do not allow trading makes the draft more important for several categories. You can find one-trick ponies who are speed merchants on the waiver wire. Don't look for any 20+ HR hitters available - I actually doubt there are any 15+ either. This is a major factor in making sure you draft well. My trade leagues are known to have little trading so I always draft with the midset that what I draft will be it.

It is also the reason you see more hitting going early in NFBC/no trade leagues. Guys like Cliff Lee go undrafted every year. One lucky soul gets him. As Todd says - Bully hitting and Manage Pitching. You bully hitting by drfating them early and often. You manage pitching by limiting the first half of your pick to 3 or 4 pitchers. Aside from a quality closers, I am going to do some mock drafts with 9 hitters inmy first 10 selections just to see what happens. From ADP lists, i think you can still create a decent enough staff.

I want to try and "learn" to draft without numbers in front of me. This will require learning a bit more about players. This site should be a great place for that. I going to mock draft with just tiers and a three letter grade represents HR tiers, SB tiers and AVG tiers. I have no clue how it will work but I have my cheat sheet ready and am just waiting for a MDC league with opening at a time I can mock.

[captgus]

two very long posts that have many people shaking their heads and saying "huh!"

It made sense to me.

haha I get it and I haven't even had cup#1 yet this morning. Great points, you can't be a slave to the numbers alone.

Gentleman, thanks for helping me start my day off on the right foot.

[maddog]

i drafted our mock here with no numbers,i didn't do as well as i thought.but it is early! baby steps. i like to think that when the heat is on (a team i have to play ) and there is only 90 secs ( or less ) between picks and not have to wait days, that instinct takes over. instead of changing my pick 30 or 40 times it will only be 1 or 2. for me that is the fun of fantasy Ball,making those picks and living with the results.

[viper]

we need to have one of those 45 sec drafts at MDC. Not even time to make a single change.

[da_big_kid_94]

I don't do drafts anymore, but I understand the angst behind the comments. In my youth (shaddup), I was known to play the ponies on occasion. During that time, I would use a tool that I found analogous to this discussion known to real oldsters as the Telegraph, and to the slightly younger as the Daily Racing Form. In that periodical was every possible significant piece of data on every horse's past performance on the card - from his dam and sire (and his dam's sire) to how he practiced recently (and what impediments may have been on the track at the time) to records on different surfaces, what drugs the horse may be on, etc.

Now you would think, with that much information, one would be able to accurately predict the result of a given horse race with a fair amount of accuracy on a fairly regular basis. To my dismay, I found out it doesn't work that way - ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD!

However, should one venture to a track, upon entering one may encounter a vendor or two hawking various brilliantly colored pieces of paper known as .... yes .... Tout Sheets. It is the predictions of various handicappers for today's race card. And you are almost guaranteed to see a copy of the previous day's sheet trumpeting how well that handicapper did the day before; "We had 6 winners and hit a small triple and two cold exactas!" Obviously a marketing tool to entice you to buy.

The problem is you have no idea how Mr. Handicapper picked his horses. For all you know, he could have had a good set of darts the night before or picked the horses from a hat. His methods are unknown, but he hopes you'll buy from him based on past results. And yet - with the Racing Form - you probably have as much information to go on as he does.

See, I'm not sure that a lot of folks have taken the time to think about what they want to get out of a set of projections. I'm sure some folks would like to look that these numbers as absolutes, and just plug them into a spreadsheet and get the results right now. I'm not saying every one does that - just that a good number of people who depend on those numbers seem to take an end justifies the means approach. And I am not saying anyone here does that - you may - but if you do, I surely don't know about it.

So, to me, one has to ask oneself - what is the percentile of success one must reach in their predictions/projections for me before I take their findings as reliable or preferred? What degree of error in a projection is acceptable ... and I am assuming that degree of error is a negative percentile - I can't see ANYONE saying; "This guy said Braun with hit 30 bombs and he hit 36. Damned if I'm using HIS numbers next year!!!" (As an aside - guy really should be held accountable for both sides of the equation, dontcha think?).

Now, as singular an example as Mr. Reyes was, let's look a little further. What were the rest of his projections like? Did the methodology he used in making those projections make sense to you (i.e., three year weighted averages). Anomalies happen all the time - did you just happen upon one or two players who broke the paradigm? If I were to look at such things, I would say look at the top starter and top hitter for every ML team, predetermine YOUR personal acceptable margin of error, then do two general things with those sets of prior projections:

• See how many of those names (top hitters and pitchers) matched who the prognosticator projected would hold those spots for those teams at year end.
• Once that is done, compare the numbers for those names between actual and projected. If the number falls within your personal margin of error, I would consider keeping this individual as a source for the following year. If not, before rejecting him out of hand, I'd do a little investigation as to why it might have happen. If the answers satisfy you, you may want to reconsider. If they don't, cross him off for the next year.

This is the type of query that will being varying views to the fore. Me? I always wondered why those football handicappers simply didn't call the local newspaper on Sunday before noon and take out an ad for Monday's paper that contained all their picks for that Sunday - just to show how they did. But, I guess I already knew why.

Have faith, gentlemen - there are answers out there ...just not all the ones we want.

[Mojo Jojo]

LMAO...viper and rotodog your posts were probably more understood than you think.

[viper]

this was really an attempt to let everyone practice their writing skills.

Not really but based on the word count in these posts, it sure seems this way. Every once in a while there needs to be a forum topic to let people rant a bit. I enjoy starting them.

[Guest]

Viper - one thing I think is rarely discussed in a fantasy concept is the idea of risk management and/or the variability of the players we select.

One reason we've taken the approach we have to projection and valuation methodology is to try and make our "concrete" values, those only tied to stats, to be based on performance a player has already achieved, whether in majors or minors. We certainly weight those players with consistent and stable performance much more favorably.

However, that may or may not represent the approach a drafter/bidder wants to take on draft day, and why significant draft planning is important, be it mocking or some other approach. If you want more risk, there are certainly players who offer that, and identifying them is important to those wanting to gamble (especially in keeper leagues where you might have a weak list or if you get off to a lousy start in a single season league).

[rotodog]

Projections are just that projections.... They should be used as a tool just like many other tools. Its about gamesmanship and putting together a roster that can contend at the end of the year..Trades and FA fine-tune the process...

I have said this for years and not sure where I heard it, but I can give a great roto drafter a weak set of projections dollar values and then give a weak roto drafter a set that is MUCH better or accurate . At the end of the year, the great roto drafter will almost always come out ahead...It is just the way it is. Some of us are just better at putting together a team and better evaluators of opportunity. I only do auction leagues and gave up on straight draft because I feel auctions allow a smarter roto player to exploit certain opportunities that you dont find in a straight draft and it takes luck out of the equation a bit more. Dont get me wrong, Luck plays a part in all winning teams to some degree, but it is not by accident that some people seem luckier than most......

[aburt19]

Projections are a combination of two things, an assessment of skills and opportunity. I argue that projections take into
account skills. But skills without opportunity doesn't get you anything. I am all in favor of drafting skills, but how many
players have shown skills in the minors, but are never given a true chance at the major league level. It may be due to
being blocked by a "better player", organizational bias such as a pitcher not getting a true shot due to the fact that he's
not tall enough, etc.

I will look at skills when I get down to the end game of the auction because I want that player who, if given the opportunity,
has the best chance of succeeding.

[viper]

It's probably easier to get caught into chasing stats in straight draft leagues rather than auctions. In an auction you have to be ready to bid everyone time a player comes up but you can compete for any player. You have a better control over who you chase. You may lose but you had the opportunity. In a straight draft, it is now or never. You pick now and wait. There is no chance to compete when your hidden gem is called by another. This year I will probably be three straight drafts and five auctions.

[rotodog]

This year I will probably be three straight drafts and five auctions.

Holy S! thats why I retired a couple years ago and now I rejoined just 2 of my old auction leagues..

[freddiebeach]

Viper and rotodog. Thanks for this it made total sense. Last year I took part in my first auction 5x5 draft. I was a real eye opener and your words put the concepts in my head in order and clearer. For baseball I am only in the one auction draft and going to be adding more. Doesn't seem right to be in 6 leagues for football and only baseball!

[Shyguy30]

As a person that has never used projections before, but always does my own research, I find myself chasing more skills than stats. Especially in an auction, where "if" an incredibly skilled player (a la J D Drew 5-10 years ago) can stay healthy, they can turn into a huge bargain. Now, obviously you don't want to field a team full of injury risk and high upside players, but especially after the first 5-6 choices I find myself leaning towards talent over past production. Last year I got Chipper Jones and Rich Harden on the cheap and when they missed time, plugged in Troy Glaus and Tim Hudson off of waivers.

I guess my point is that everyone knows last year's stats, so if someone drove in 130 runs last year, you are going to have to pay the 130 RBI price. There isn't a ton of room then for that player to return greater value. Reading this forum over the last few weeks has only confirmed this in my mind. It's obvious that some of the most intelligent and dedicated fantasy baseball players around frequent this site, and your posts have been a godsend as I was frantically searching through the online wasteland for something I could sink my teeth into. Keep up the good work, everyone.

[momige]

Great topic everyone! Personally, I feel that the projections are the key to a good draft/auction. I agree that if someone hit 130 RBI last year you have to pay for 130 RBI, but the key to success is getting the player that will hit 130 RBI this year and paying for 80 RBI. Yes, some luck is involved in drafts, but in general, the only way to get that is have better projections than the guy next to you, and to have an idea what other will pay/draft a player. This allows you to get maximum value out of every pick.
You need to know ADP or A$ so that you know how long you can let your sleeper sit or how low you can bid to get them. Yes, you will probably have to pay full price for some of your players, but the draft winner is the person that has the most players drafted/bought below their value.
I also agree that having the best team on April 1st doesn't mean that you will have the best team Oct 1st; but the people that are consistantly at the top in the end have great drafting/auctioning skills as well as great inseason skills.
The smarter fantasy manager knows which players have the ability to sustain their 2 week hot streak, and what players will be coming back to earth.

[rotodog]

Great topic everyone! Personally, I feel that the projections are the key to a good draft/auction. I agree that if someone hit 130 RBI last year you have to pay for 130 RBI, but the key to success is getting the player that will hit 130 RBI this year and paying for 80 RBI. Yes, some luck is involved in drafts, but in general, the only way to get that is have better projections than the guy next to you, and to have an idea what other will pay/draft a player. This allows you to get maximum value out of every pick.
You need to know ADP or A$ so that you know how long you can let your sleeper sit or how low you can bid to get them. Yes, you will probably have to pay full price for some of your players, but the draft winner is the person that has the most players drafted/bought below their value.
I also agree that having the best team on April 1st doesn't mean that you will have the best team Oct 1st; but the people that are consistantly at the top in the end have great drafting/auctioning skills as well as great inseason skills.
The smarter fantasy manager knows which players have the ability to sustain their 2 week hot streak, and what players will be coming back to earth.

You make sense, but I will argue that the winner is not always the guy that has the most players bought undervalue. In a general sense , Yes...You need to get more stats for your money than anyone else, but it is the craft of putting together a team and recognizing when to overpay, when to sit and when to buy....It takes a long to time to hone this craft and every league style is different.

One thing I will say is that an owner can buy only bargains and not buy expensive guys and still have a lackluster team. If you have a whole team of bargains at less than projected value, it still doesnt mean you bought enough stats or the right stats.

For instance. If you own Jose Reyes at just under value. And you own Ichiro at just under value. And then you own Denard Span at a bargain..... Does it make sense to buy Mike Bourn or Willy Taveras at even Half price? If those guys actually go for half price , then you possibly overpaid for the other basestealers , but even at half price, they are of no use to your team as it is constructed.....Its an extreme example, but shows how a team of extreme bargains doesnt necessarily make it a winner.. Something to thing about when constructing a team...

[momige]

I agree Rotodog. Great fantasy baseball players can reasses the player pool after each player is drafted and estimate the change in values as there team is build and the rest of the player pool diminishes.

[viper]

take away that laptop, do a straight draft and have 90 seconds for a pick. When picks go bang-bang-bang, I would question anyone's ability to truly reassess a draft on the fly. Even with a laptop and rotolab [ I don't use it but everyone says it can do these type of assessments], you could easily spend most of your time entering picks rather than thinking about pick.

[alleyoops]

Rotolab is actually pretty quick for entry, but it is a challenge to keep up, and still think, if the auction or draft pace is very fast. I notice it the most in an auction, when you're down to the last bunch of players and there isn't much bidding going on. But the same would be true in a fast-paced draft.

The product is very well-designed. It recalculates "inflated values" instantaneously after each player is selected. You can also set up targets, and compare your current projected total stats to those. You can even see the projected total stats and final standings, by category, on the fly. Of course, that doesn't mean a lot until later in the draft, since teams have different numbers of players. Still, it does give you a lot of potentially useful in-draft tools.

The "trick" is to not get so hung up in the entry and lookups that you don't THINK. I believe that's where rotodog is coming from. If the tool takes away from your ability to "read the room", to react to the situation at the time, to do things consistent with your plan coming in, etc., it can be more of a hindrance than a help.

As I've used it more and more, I believe I'm better at striking that balance. I'm a fan of the product, and I really think I'd struggle trying to do an auction without it. But to each his own. Whatever works for you, and whatever you're comfortable with.

[cwk1963]

I concur with alley. I've been using it now for about 5 years. I would never be able to do in an auction what I do now and keep up without it. In no way does it inhibit my ability to read the auction - it enhances it because I'm able to do everything so quickly. You can do and see so much on the editor page alone - projections (MB, BHQ, you own, whatever you want to use), player profiles, values, 15 different player flags, previous year games by position, sort by name, any league category, any of a number of skills (k/9, bb/9, bb%, ht%, etc). Filter to show only a specific position. Whatever category you pick for a specific player will display at the top in a 4 year trend graph with current projections. Just start to type a player's name to quickly find him. All of this is done instantly and on 1 page. There's no way anyone could do all this manually and still be able to read the auction, IMHO. The only thing it doesn't do is group in tiers but I have a separate spreadsheet that is always in the background for that. Personally, I'm very comfortable with it and can do so much more during the auction with it.

[freddiebeach]

I agree that rotolab helps with auction rather than hinder them. I also used Fantistics for an auction last year. It is pretty much on par with rotolab for features and it also comes with a bunch of other tools you can access for post draft. It is slightly more expensive if you are a rotolab repeat buyer. I guess it really depends pers preference.

[rotodog]

take away that laptop, do a straight draft and have 90 seconds for a pick. When picks go bang-bang-bang, I would question anyone's ability to truly reassess a draft on the fly. Even with a laptop and rotolab [ I don't use it but everyone says it can do these type of assessments], you could easily spend most of your time entering picks rather than thinking about pick.

GO VIPER! I did spend much time entering players..... And you get so involved with the inflation rates and players left to bid on you get sucked into believing what the program says instead simply knowing your player pool etc....If your good enough, it should just click ...

[rotodog]

I still love rotolab and think it is a fine tool....The guy that wrote it is a great guy...Answers questions, has called me and he stand behind his product....If I were using one again, it would be rotolab..... But I am choosing to go Old school because of something that happened last year instaed of using any programs....

I bet each of you that think you cant draft the same without it would do just fine..If you are here (mastersball) talking about strategy, you should be a decent roto player to begin with.....

Challenge! I am willing to bet that many of you are in multiple leagues. I would like you to take the league that is the least important and try drafting with pen and paper... You can use grids and such printed from rotolab or elsewhere, but leave the rotolab at home. Maybe the costly of leagues? or the league you dont need bragging rights in? Whatever...try one draft without it ..... It may just be liberating......

[Todd Zola]

As the spring nears, we will be setting up more mocks, hopefully through Mock Draft Central. Perhaps you guys can use them as laboratory type exercises, those that rely on the PC might try to wing it, those that wish to become more comfortable with drafting software, can give it a go.

[freddiebeach]

Sounds good and I will wing it in the mocks and I am now planning on going paper in one of my drafts. Just need to figure out which one.

[rotodog]

Sounds good and I will wing it in the mocks and I am now planning on going paper in one of my drafts. Just need to figure out which one.

If you can "paper" your first draft , I feel that might get the Mojo running so when you do use rotolab, the FORCE will be with you and you can trust it...USE THE FORCE FREDDIE.....

[cwk1963]

I still love rotolab and think it is a fine tool....The guy that wrote it is a great guy...Answers questions, has called me and he stand behind his product....If I were using one again, it would be rotolab..... But I am choosing to go Old school because of something that happened last year instaed of using any programs....

I bet each of you that think you cant draft the same without it would do just fine..If you are here (mastersball) talking about strategy, you should be a decent roto player to begin with.....

Challenge! I am willing to bet that many of you are in multiple leagues. I would like you to take the league that is the least important and try drafting with pen and paper... You can use grids and such printed from rotolab or elsewhere, but leave the rotolab at home. Maybe the costly of leagues? or the league you dont need bragging rights in? Whatever...try one draft without it ..... It may just be liberating......

I've been playing this game a long time - since weekly lineups you mailed in. RotoLab has only been around recently. I used to do all my drafts by paper so I know I can. As a matter of fact, before home color printers became affordable, I used different colored pencils on my manual lists. In my heyday I would be in 12 or more leagues each year. I choose to use recent technology because it makes things easier and makes me more productive - like technology is supposed to do. Should we ditch the computer and go back to the abacus?

[rotodog]

C dub K,

At 45, you've been playing a while.. I love Tech, but sometimes it can be counterproductive as I outlined earlier...Abacus? No. Sometimes we get so wrapped up with whats in front of us, we forget our main goal. To Be a winner in October... What happens when 3 guys are using the same Rotolab on draft day? I used it as a tool only, but still got caught up in the whole valuations and schemes.... I think a a ranking list with values tailored for you league, a pencil, a highlighter and a calculator gets you involved during the draft personally... I understand the dynamics of the draft better when it goes that way... Now that may not seem to be the case for everyone, but I have a nasty ADD brain that fires on all cylinders using this method now . I just " get it" better now that I dont use software....

I may bring my 15 year old son to a couple drafts with me and teach him to use the tool Todd will release...I still have an older version on my computer too....But I will still use paper and check with my son as I teach him the fine craft of auction roto.....

[cwk1963]

C dub K,

At 45, you've been playing a while.. I love Tech, but sometimes it can be counterproductive as I outlined earlier...Abacus? No. Sometimes we get so wrapped up with whats in front of us, we forget our main goal. To Be a winner in October... What happens when 3 guys are using the same Rotolab on draft day? I used it as a tool only, but still got caught up in the whole valuations and schemes.... I think a a ranking list with values tailored for you league, a pencil, a highlighter and a calculator gets you involved during the draft personally... I understand the dynamics of the draft better when it goes that way... Now that may not seem to be the case for everyone, but I have a nasty ADD brain that fires on all cylinders using this method now . I just " get it" better now that I dont use software....

I may bring my 15 year old son to a couple drafts with me and teach him to use the tool Todd will release...I still have an older version on my computer too....But I will still use paper and check with my son as I teach him the fine craft of auction roto.....

Thanks for the compliment, but it's actually 50 now .

I understand your point and your point of view. For me, though, at this point in time, RotoLab works better. Not right or wrong for someone else. Just right for me.

[viper]

two questions

1. How do you handle online drafts assuming you have just one computer? Switching back and forth could easily cost you seeing a pick or two.

2. In sounds as if rotolab makes "suggestions" based on your projections and the current projected standings. This seems fraught with danger in a straight draft as the number of pitchers and hitters is seldom the same on teams. In auctions it is even worse as some teams have like four players and others may have ten. How is that handles? It would seem that setting targets - hopefully without merely chasing stats -would be a better approach.

[cwk1963]

two questions

1. How do you handle online drafts assuming you have just one computer? Switching back and forth could easily cost you seeing a pick or two.

2. In sounds as if rotolab makes "suggestions" based on your projections and the current projected standings. This seems fraught with danger in a straight draft as the number of pitchers and hitters is seldom the same on teams. In auctions it is even worse as some teams have like four players and others may have ten. How is that handles? It would seem that setting targets - hopefully without merely chasing stats -would be a better approach.

1. Minimize the draft window and RotoLab window so both can be seen at the same time either side-by-side or top-to-bottom.

2. RotoLab doesn't make suggestions. Think of it as the same lists you might use with a lot more info that can be sorted instantly any number of ways. When you click on a player and assign him to a team it updates the roster page. You can click on it to see who has/needs what. Need to change a player position? Just click and drag instead of erase or scratch over. I doubt anyone can do any of this manually anywhere near as quickly as a computer can. You can, however, see standings on another page as the draft unfolds. Personally, I don't really use this. I have league history and set targets for each category that I don't necessarily hit but get within range of. If my target for HR is 300 and I'm at 290 I don't sweat it and reach for someone. I can instantly see where I stand with each category based on the ballpark I want to be in. Then I can sort players by a particular category if I want to target that one. Again, all this is done instantly.

Most importantly, I'm not recommending RotoLab or any other software for someone not wanting to use it or feels paper is better for them. It works much better for me and I can do a lot more and see a lot more in a live room. If someone feels paper, picking from a hat or anything else works better for them, fine. However, if you are looking for a software product, I certainly recommend this one.

[alleyoops]

two questions

1. How do you handle online drafts assuming you have just one computer? Switching back and forth could easily cost you seeing a pick or two.

2. In sounds as if rotolab makes "suggestions" based on your projections and the current projected standings. This seems fraught with danger in a straight draft as the number of pitchers and hitters is seldom the same on teams. In auctions it is even worse as some teams have like four players and others may have ten. How is that handles? It would seem that setting targets - hopefully without merely chasing stats -would be a better approach.

1. What cwk said. I have actually done full auctions in a chat, using rotolab, AND been the auctioneer!

2. Different folks use the product in different ways, obviously. I spend most of my time on the Draft page, which has players displayed by descending inflated value. I'll toggle to the Rosters page now and then, to see the rosters, money left, needs, etc. And after the draft has been going a while, I'll periodically look at my goals and progress toward them (this is also on the Rosters page). You're right that the projected final standings has minimal value during the draft, although it's a decent tool to find out who's loading up on Saves or Steals, for example.

It does not recommend anything.

[freddiebeach]

I've tried it using two laptops but I would multiple windows works best. I am so use to using chat functions, email, and phone at for work that it seems pretty easy to keep up with. In fact last football seasons I had two of my drafts overlap briefly. That I wont be doing again.