Make this deal?

[bxm701]

So an owner in my league is looking to move Mauer for whatever reason.

Is think I can do something with a base of Weeks, Posada for Mauer, Jose Lopez. Weeks is a good keeper for what it's worth.

What do people think?

[Todd Zola]

I see it as losing 15 HR, 15 SB, 40 runs and maybe a few RBI to pick up maybe 40-50 points of BA.

Personally, I prefer to keep the counting stats and let the BA fall where it may.

The risk is about the same on both sides, Mauer and Weeks are injury risks, as is Posada while Colorado has a bunch of moving parts so if Lopez slumps, he could lose AB.

I'd rate the deal even in terms of value, but I prefer the value on the Weeks/Posada side. It is really too early to make the determination you need BA help, but if you feel that you do, the trade will help in that area.

[deansdaddy]

Yeah - I agree with Todd here. Lopez (who I have on a few teams this year) is already losing a few AB's to Jon Herrera. I'd stick with what you have for now.

[bxm701]

What if it were Kelly Johnson instead of Lopez?

[Todd Zola]

It sounds to me like you are trying to rationalize dealing for Mauer's name and not the stats.

Johnson will hit maybe 5 more HR, steal maybe 10 more bases and score more runs than Lopez, but the counting stats still favor Weeks and Posada so it is more a matter of needs.

Odd as it may be with that group of players, but I actually consider Mauer to be the most risky of the bunch, both in terms of performance and health. I am leery of any player whose value is so tied up in batting average since some bad luck can torpedo a season.

But, Johnson is an upgrade over Lopez so pulling the trigger is defensible.

[alleyoops]

Weeks being a good keeper means a lot more than you seem to indicate, as good keepers draw extra value come dump time. This alone would make me lean toward not dealing him (in any deal not including at least as good a keeper) this early.

Not sure I agree with the negative comments around Mauer. If you look at his projected stats versus guys at other positions, the arguments hold. But position scarcity doesn't go away after the auction. He's still a whole lot better than the replacement level C's. The risk is there, but it should be less than in past years, as the Twins seem to be making sure he gets his days off.

[Todd Zola]

Position scarcity does not go away if the concern is replacing a lost player, but so far as how much better he is than the other catchers is moot at this point as that is only relevant when ranking players initially to put as much potential as possible on your roster. Now, it is all about stats.

Plus, Mauer is not going in for a replacement level player -- he is going in for Posada.

Giving Mauer more off days may keep him healthy, but it also reduces his production. Granted it is a balance, my point being you have to temper expectations when compared to his "normal" number of at bats.

[Mickey4081]

Yeah, I like Mauer as much as you but.....Weeks could crack 25-30 homers and you already have a catcher who will put up 15-20 homers assuming he gets enough at bats. Is Mauer's batting average worth losing all those homers, runs and rbi's?....I don't think so. The Twins will baby Mauer until he hangs up the spikes.

[Todd Zola]

Mauer to the Dl, could be serious.

[SteveB]

i was just going to type that Todd..makes me wonder if you are reading from a script or something.

[bxm701]

Thanks for the input everyone. Lucky I didn't pull the trigger!