Ryan Carey's NFBC Satellite Team/League

[deansdaddy]

This past Wednesday I participated in my first and only 15 team NFBC draft of the year. This years league was a standard $125 Satellite league, meaning we would be drafting online. After draft slots were chosen I found myself sitting in my least desired position, 15th. Right ahead of me was Rick from DraftBuddy.com. I was glad that I had read Bod's writings there and looked at some other stuff, but figured he'd get me a couple times in this draft. I was right. Needless to say when I saw my position, I wasn't thrilled. Since this would be my only league I was hoping for a shot at Pujols or one of the big SS's. After that, I was angling for position's 8-12 knowing I would likely get a Braun, Longoria or Adrian Gonzalez as well as have a nice view coming each way. Pick 15 offered none of these benefits and guarantees that every 30-45 minutes you have to make to picks in succession then sit again for 28 picks, crossing out all the names of other owners picks. But rather than wallow in the misfortune of getting saddled with my 15th ranked draft spot - I set forth to get my mind ready to tackle the challenge at hand.

My first course of action was to shoot an email of to Todd Zola of Mastersball and get his thoughts. Todd fielded my question in his weekly mailbag segment over at KFFL.com, and you can click on the link to see his detailed answer. Basically Todd confirmed many of my thoughts, especially regarding the early flow of SP's and I agreed with the thinking that I didn't want to find myself missing out on runs there or at the closer position. I had a good idea of how I wanted to open my draft and was confident in my knowledge of the player pool. All that was left was to draft the team. I went into this draft with a plan in mind and an intention to try and embrace and implement the tools and techniques I have gained and have access to here at Mastersball in this draft. I do have Rotolab again this year, which uses BBHQ projections, and I did track the draft on Rotolab as I was going along. But the MB Tier Sheet was my main checklist for this draft. So yes this is one of those draft recaps coming here - albeit one with I think a distinctive MB flavor to it.


Round 1, Pick 15 - Alex Rodriguez, 3B, NYY

Picking 15th I had a pretty good idea of the guys I would not be getting a chance to draft. The upside of picking 15th is that when you pick, you are guaranteed of getting two guys you like. No one has a chance to steal your second choice. The challenge of course is to try to read the teas leaves for the following 28 picks since you won't be picking again til after they happen, and again you will have to endure a parade of names that you never even had to consider drafting. So, anyway, the draft opened as expected. I was hoping either David Wright or Mark Teixeira would somehow slide to me, which would require someone grabbing Roy Halladay in the 1st round. Well, Halladay was chosen at pick 9, which was a good sign I might get a slider. Tex went two picks later leaving Ryan Braun, Evan Longoria and David Wright on the board with three picks til I drafted. Could Braun actually fall farther? Well, he did fall one more pick and was an absolute steal at Pick 13. Wright went and left me with the guy I figured I would end up with as my first choice - Alex Rodriguez. I thought briefly about going for Ryan Howard or Prince Fielder here - but I thought I could grab a decent 1B option at the 5/6 turn if I got lucky and if not I could fall back on Justin Mourneau who had been falling like a stone in drafts.

Round 2, Pick 16 - Matt Holliday, OF, STL

After Choosing Arod to open my draft, I had to decide to stick with my plan of taking Holliday or change course and take the best of the remaining 1B (Howard or Prince). I had already decided I would not go scarcity (2B/SS/C) here and Halladay wasn't an option. I had already decided that I was going to grab my first SP at the next turn and knew that I would likely have a choice of a couple of MI that I liked there as well. Knowing I wouldn't be picking for awhile, I wanted to make sure I had a top OF on my squad. The other names I considered were Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz so I think you can understand why I went with Holliday. The other two I like a lot and both have bigger upsides than the guy I chose. They are also both tremendous injury risks, and that is something I didn't want to take on with my second pick. Matt Holliday was the easiest choice of the night for me.

Round 3, Pick 45 - Jimmy Rollins, SS, PHI

My plan for this round was to grab an SP and a quality 2B or SS. I figured both Rollins and Brandon Phillips would be there for me here and they were. I was also hoping that John Lester, who was my 4th ranked SP, would make it to me. My next choice was Clayton Kershaw. As expected all the top power/speed OF's were drafted. Kemp/Choo/McCuthchen and Justin Upton were all guys I doubted would slide and they didn't. I was surprised when Kershaw went mid 3rd round, but thought I might actually land either Lester or C.C. Sabathia. Sadly, Lester got snatched right before I picked and C.C. went two picks before that. I needed a moment to figure out which SP I wanted now - so I chose Rollins over Phillips, simply because I liked the talent at 2B later on and thought I could get my guy if I waited there. For me there was a big drop-off in talent from Rollins to the next tier of SS's. Rollins was the pick.

Round 4, Pick 46 - Justin Verlander, SP, DET

I was well aware that a ton of starting pitching was going to come off the board in the next two rounds. I also knew that another batch of OF would get drafted as well. I had already committed to taking my "Ace" here, because I had my eye on a OF I liked for Round 5 and was hoping a 1B would slide. Halladay, Lincecum, Felix, Lee, Kershaw, C.C. and Lester were all gone. I had 1:30 to decide who it was going to be. It boiled down to Dan Haren and Verlander. I went with Verlander to anchor my staff. I think he offered some upside in the W's department. He is also a workhorse and that's what I was looking for in a No 1 SP.

Round 5, Pick 75 - Drew Stubbs, OF, CIN

Looking ahead to this pick I was hoping that either Kendrys Morales or Paul Konerko would slide to me here. Grabbing Arod earlier had meant I missed out on the Top 9 1B options. Morales had gone higher, but the fact he will likely start the season on the DL gave me hope I could steal him at the end of the 5th Round. I could then come back with the best OF on the board in the 6th, hopefully the guy I was targeting. Interestingly, Justin Mourneau went in the 4th round, just a few picks after Verlander. I was surprised by this, since he'd been tumbling in drafts due to the concussion worries. The guy who drafted him obviously saw what I saw when it came to 1B, and wanted to get his now. Then I realized he already had a 1B in Fielder. I wouldn't take on the risk of Mourneau if I didn't need it, and he didn't, but I guess I was more pissed that he had just eliminated my fallback strategy and maybe got the attention of the other 6 owners who still had no 1B. Over the next wave of Picks 10 SP's go. The fact that Roy Oswalt would have been the guy I would have gotten had I waited shows you have to bite the bullet at 3/4 on SP. I make it through to Round 5 when Konerko goes early in the Round. Will Morales make it to me and what will I do if he doesn't? I feel like I am safe if the guy at Pick 12 passes him, since Team 13 has 2 already and Team 14 has Howard. He gets past 12 and I figure I got him in the bag when for the second time in a row Team 14 grabs my guy in Morales. The only good news is that Stubbs makes it through so I take the full 1:30 before I take him so I can figure out who to grab next.

Round 6, Pick 76 - Mike Stanton, OF, FLA

If there is anything that you can take away from this, the first couple rounds of picks shows that you have to have some backup plans. Because the guys you think you want WILL get taken. Sometimes right before you pick. You either panic and make a lousy pick, or you quickly move to the other names on your list and take someone else. The best position players on my board were at OF, 3B and SS. I had all three covered. The next bunch of SP's I liked, and I could grab my No 2 guy here, but I liked Max Sherzer, Chad Billingsley and Shawn Marcum, and felt that one of them would make it back to me at 7/8. So my backup plan if Morales got taken was to grab another OF. The choices for me were Andre Ethier, Mike Stanton and Jay Bruce. Initially I was going to go Ethier. He was less risky and wouldn't hurt me anywhere. I also really loved Bruce this year, but I had just gambled on another Cincy OF to take a step forward. Then I decided to go with the pure power of Stanton. I figured if I was going to wait on 1B now (I had no choice) I would need to get this power somewhere else. The downside here is both Stubbs and Stanton are considerable BA drags. If this were the Main Event I might have gone Ethier, but in a Satellite I thought I needed the power more. The truth is I didn't expect him to be available and was surprised he was to tell the truth. I had to quickly look to see if he was hurt. Hopefully I could snag a Billy Butler maybe as early as my next pair of picks to help boost the BA. I didn't consider a closer yet - since only one was off the board. Even if some started to go, I was pretty sure I'd still get a good one.

Round 7, Pick 105 - Shawn Marcum, SP, MIL

Well I would be lying if I said I wasn't wishing for either Scherzer or Billingsley to fall to me here. Scherzer went early in the round and Billingsley went to Team 13. But I was happy to get Marcum here as my No. 2 starter. I was sad to see Butler go in Round 6 to Team 12. I think he panicked a bit here and pushed Butler up at least a round to high, but then again he got him and I of course didn't. The pickings at 1B were grim and I circled the name Derrek Lee. He was my new target. The only question was when would I grab him. Not now that's for sure.

Round 8, Pick 106 - Neftali Feliz, RP, TEX

Going into the draft I had identified the 8th Rd as the point I would at least consider my 1st closer. I figured a few would be gone by that point and they were. Marmol, Soria, Wilson and Bell had all been drafted. It seemed pretty clear to me that if I passed on a closer here I was at very great risk of missing a big run. I would then have to likely grab two in the next four rounds. But I also wanted to take another SP as well as saving a pick for Beckham and D Lee. I thought about Kelly Johnson for a moment and came VERY close to taking Mariano Rivera. Then I decided to pull the trigger on Feliz. I figure I can't really lose here. If he closes, he's money. If he starts, he is still going to be an electric arm. I like the pick a lot actually and rather than missing a run, hopefully I will start one so a player or two I like will fall to me in 9/10.

Round 9, Pick 135 - Gordon Beckham, 2B, CHW

Well, 4 closers did go, but that was less than I had hoped for. Also 10 OF's and 9 SP's went. I was okay with this since I was going to wait to get my 4th OF and figured an SP I liked would still be there. I was disappointed to see some names I liked come off the board such as Daniel Hudson, Brandon Morrow and Brett Anderson. Feliz also caused me to miss on the last bunch of C1's I really liked in Wieters, Napoli and Montero. Honestly, I wasn't in position to draft a C at value all draft so far and had come in determined to wait it out at C anyway. This after all is a Sat league and not the overall. But still I wanted a decent C1 and they were going fast. But as expected Zobrist and Kelly Johnson go. I wanted Beckham and the alternatives if I passed here were H Kendrick and Neil Walker. I had hoped to get Beckham later, but the flow of the draft dictated I grab him now. Walker and Kendrick went soon after so I'm glad I got my guy when I did.

Round 10, Pick 136 - Jeremy Hellickson, SP, TB

Remember that group of SP's I just mentioned. Well I can admit now that for me they were 3/4ths of a group I had in mind going into the draft that would provide me one player. I like them all and was happy that Hellickson had somehow made it through. I thought about D Lee here, but decided I had waited this long wait another 28 picks and see if he made it. Only one 1B (A. Huff) had gone in the last batch. So this was an enjoyable turn as i got 2 players I really liked and didn't have to think to hard about the selections..

So After 10 rounds I was pretty happy. I actually had drafted 5 players that I had targeted going in. This at least confirmed that my projection of the player flow was pretty accurate. I had rostered my 2B, SS, 3B, 3 OF's, 3 SP's and 1 CL. I wasn't happy falling short at 1B and would likely look to fill that position as early as my next round of picks. I will pick this up again tomorrow and continue with the rest of my picks. Feel free to give your opinions on the first third of this team.

[Todd Zola]

Holy cow.

I just mapped out a couple of possible scenarios for me with the 13th pick in the NFBC Classic and we match on the first 5 picks, with the possible exception of what pitcher I put in the R4 line. Right now, I would flip a coin between Verlander and Lester if available.

I would have taken my SP2 in round 6.

Though, after reading your write up, I may have taken Phillips as I happen to like the SS later.

[deansdaddy]

The guys I missed on at SP were Oswalt, Cain, Carpenter, Liriano, Scherzer and Billingsley.

I will admit - Stubbs is a guy that MB made me a believer in. I also had the benefit of seeing your draft from the 15th spot in PBY in Jan. I agreed with your Arod/Holliday start and only someone falling would have changed that. Rollins/Phillips was the big choice - but I guess I had my mind set on Beckham so went Rollins. For Main Event I see your thinking though as late SS's can maybe give some speed as well.

We had a couple wild card drafters in here. No All-RP (thank god) but one guy did go ALL SP.

I am trying not to second guess the Stanton pick too much - but felt pressure to get some more power.

[deansdaddy]

Screw it I'll reel off the rest more quickly:

Round 11, Pick 165 - Derreck Lee, 1b, BAL

Decided I have to take him and at least I got him at a slight discount I think.

Round 12, Pick 166 - Huston Street, CL, COL

Just missed out on THorton who was my target and actually intended on drafting Valverde, but the system gave me Street who I must have pushed by accident. Valverde went next. I am okay with Street here though the pick did cause me to miss out on K Suzuki. This pick did start a late closer run so I was glad I made it.

Round 13, Pick 195 - Jorge Posada, C, NYY

I was thrilled that Posada fell to me two rounds after Suzuki went. This was a nice falling value pick that I couldn't pass up.

Round 14, Pick 196 - Carlos Beltran, OF, NYM

This pick doesn't look great - but if you look at who else went around it I think it looks better. I still think he will perform up to this spot. Could have (should have?) gone SP here and could have gotten Ervin Santana or James Shields - but I like the guy I got next.

Round 15, Pick 225 - Jaime Garcia, SP, STL

This was a MB pick all the way as I trusted what my Tier sheet was telling me, that he was far and away the best SP left on the board. Love the ratio support this late and the team he plays for.

Round 16, Pick 226 - Ryan Raburn, OF, DET

Jason M would be proud of me here, right? I pushed him up a bit to get him, and like him as my 5th OF to start the year. Hoping he can steal 2B eligibility for me at some point.

Round 17, Pick 255 - Aaron Harang, SP, SD

Another MB fav - I chose Harang here after a slew of SP's come off the board. I decide to grab the guy that MB ranks higher than most of them.

Round 18, Pick 256 - Jose Lopez, 3B, COL

While I didn't miss out of closer runs - I had missed out on a MI run earlier (after Beltran) and after more came off the board I jumped on Lopez here. I think it was a steal and I will have to get someone to fill in for a couple of weeks til he is eligible. He did cost me a quality C2 however. AJ Pierz went before this pair of picks and if he had been here I likely take him. 4 more go after this pick and I waited for a long time then.

Round 19, Pick 285 - Scott Baker, SP, MIN

Had my eye on Chris Sale, but he went so I settled for Baker. Happy with him as my SP 6.

Round 20, Pick 286 - David Aardsma, RP, SEA

Probably the pick I liked least of my entire draft. But I felt the need to hedge my bets on Feliz becoming an SP here. The cost was Alex Gordon, who didn't make it back around to me.

[deansdaddy]

Round 21, Pick 315 - Mike Moustakas, 3B, KC

I hadn't really jumped anyone up all draft - so now was my moment. I had thought about Mous as far back as when I took D Lee. I knew that many guys start grabbing rookies around this time and felt if I wanted him I had to get him now. At least I made other guys draft their hot-shots as 5 more top prospects followed, and I had mine.

Round 22, Pick 316 - Brett Wallace, 1B, HOU

I won't lie, I wasn't happy with Lee as my only 1B and worried about the wrist to start the year. I was hoping to draft Wallace late - but the day or two before this draft Wallace erupted in ST for that monster game. I almost took Seth Smith - but Wallace was a bigger need since I also had no CI.

Round 23, Pick 345 - Homer Bailey, SP, CIN

One player I was higher on than MB that I stuck with. He's my SP7 and I love the upside here.

Round 24, Pick 346 - Michael Brantley, OF, CLE

One thing I did miss out on a lot on this draft was speedy OF's - so at least I was able to snag one I like late.

Round 25, Pick 375 - Carlos Carrasco, SP, CLE

Being a CLE fan, I guess I needed another one. Like him in RES.

Round 26, Pick 376 - Jason Motte, RP, STL

Like Motte at a speculative closer but I hated the fact I passed on Kyle McClellan here. He went later on and I should have taken him before either of the two guys I did I think in retrospect. I also missed out on a bunch of C's again thinking the guys would wait til the end like me. Ooops.

Round 27, Pick 405 - Hank Conger, C, LAA

After watching a bunch of C's go (should have taken Lucroy last round) I settled on Conger.

Round 28, Pick 406 - Freddy Sanchez, 2B, SF

I will need a 2B for two weeks til Lopez can take over. He likely be jettisoned then for whatever I need help with. Should have taken Brandon Belt who was available , but I overlooked him til he went later.

Round 29, Pick 435 - Kenley Jansen, RP, LAD

I think Jansen will be saving games by May perhaps.

Round 30, Pick 436 - Darren O'Day, RP, TEX

I think HE might take over at closer if Feliz starts and not Ogando.

[deansdaddy]

C - J Posada
C - H Conger
1B- D Lee
2B- G Beckham
SS- J Rollins
3B- A Rod
CI- B Wallace
MI- J Lopez (Sanchez)
OF- M Holliday
OF- D Stubbs
OF- M Stanton
OF- C Beltran
OF- R Raburn
UT- M Brantley
RES - Moustakas

SP- Verlander, Marcum, Hellickson, Garcia, Harang, Baker, Bailey, Carrasco
RP- Feliz, Street, Aardsma, Motte, Jansen, O'Day

I will likely make at least one move in Week one for the best bat I can find (Cust, Hafner) once I know about Feliz.

Sanchez's roster spot I will try to use on two start SP's and whatever injuries I need to cover. Might even go grab M Izturis who went undrafted since he can cover me more places anyway.

I was happy with the team overall and think in a SAT I have put myself in the hunt. I am light on speed - but I think I have enough for middle of the pack perhaps. My pitching looks good and my power looks very nice as well. BA could be a real problem however. Time will tell - so I'll keep updating the progress from time to time.

[Todd Zola]

The guys I missed on at SP were Oswalt, Cain, Carpenter, Liriano, Scherzer and Billingsley.

I will admit - Stubbs is a guy that MB made me a believer in. I also had the benefit of seeing your draft from the 15th spot in PBY in Jan. I agreed with your Arod/Holliday start and only someone falling would have changed that. Rollins/Phillips was the big choice - but I guess I had my mind set on Beckham so went Phillips. For Main Event I see your thinking though as late SS's can maybe give some speed as well.

We had a couple wild card drafters in here. No All-RP (thank god) but one guy did go ALL SP.

I am trying not to second guess the Stanton pick too much - but felt pressure to get some more power.

I think Scherzer would have been my guy for the K's and some upside.

Rollins versus Phillips is going to be an interesting decision for me. In past year's I would take them both and go pitcher at 5/6. I have a satellite on Thursday night, maybe I will change my KDS to get a late pick and play it out that way to see what the pitching staff looks like. If I KNOW I can start with say Haren in the 5th and Scherzer in the 6th, that may be something to consider.

[deansdaddy]

Scherzer was the guy I wanted and gambled I could get around. Marcum was the end of my wish list.

If I had taken Phillips - I likely grab Oswalt at 5/6 - then take either Granderson/D Young instead of Feliz at 7/8.

Then I would have gone either Axford/Nathan/C Perez or maybe Thorton instead of Beckham at 9.

In the Main Event I may have preferred option 2 and the SB's that Phillips provides - so there is a case for grabbing both Rollins/Phillips there I think.

[Todd Zola]

Looking at the Weekend 1 NFBC Leagues, it would have been hard to get both Rollins and Phillips, but I am more intrigued with waiting until rounds 5 and 6 to double on starters. I see it as black or white. If I get 2 pitchers I want, I am thrilled. If I don't, I am screwed. Interesting.

[AllstonRockCity]

I am trying not to second guess the Stanton pick too much - but felt pressure to get some more power.

I'm not gonna pretend to know more about the NFBC than you, you are 1 my sources after all.

And not to rub salt in the wound, by how many more HR's do you really think Stanton is going to hit than Ethier? 5? 7? Do you truly feel that 1/2 dozen HRs outweighs the 40ish pts in BA and the 20 or so RBI/Runs??

[deansdaddy]

Well - I think that Stanton has the "potential" to hit 40 Hr's as early as this year. Ethier doesn't. I think I talked myself out of him more from personal bias than anything. We all have guys we like and guys we don't and Ethier falls into the "don't" file for me right now. I also have Stanton pretty much even with Eithier in runs and out producing Ethier in RBI's. I also think Stanton will steal at least the same amount of bases (if not more) than Eithier and only have him 30pts down in BA. So I guess my projections on Stanton coming into the draft were higher than MB's. It is definitely fair to admit that this was one instance where my own thinking over-road my Cheat Sheets.

Bruce is the guy I might pick if I could today - as I think he could also whack 40 this year. But I talked myself out of him because of the back to back Cincy thing.

Bear in mind - many of these decisions are/were being made in 3 minutes of time, so you WILL have moments that you second guess afterwards. I had to decide which way I wanted to go after Morales went. I almost wish he hadn't gone right before me - as I had to sort my thoughts on my next move quickly. This is something to keep in mind if you have back to back picks-have a Plan B or C. I took almost the full 1:30 on Stubbs, even though I knew I was picking him. I knew I had 3 minutes to sort it out. Don't ever let anyone rush your picks. If you need the full time allotment - take it. I did have Stanton at the Top of my player que - so always have a name you can live with ready to pick. If I was in the main I likely would have not been in a position to wait til the 7th rd on SP.

[southpaw]

Looks good. I do like your staff.
I did a couple draftmaster leagues, one at NFBC and the other at WCOFB. Plus, I did an online $350 slow draft that I posted about here at MB. That's the only one I did with FAAB.
Are you going to keep this thread updated with weekly transactions and thoughts/strategy? I'd certainly be interested in reading your thought process as far as bidding goes.
I can plan to do the same with my team. Heck, I may need serious help as far as that goes.

[deansdaddy]

I can do that. We can definitely set something up when it comes to weekly FAAB discussions. I will ask Todd if anyone on the staff is going to be doing this. If they do - we can just comment on the weekly column. But -yeah - I will try to do some some here - just won't likely identify my bids til the day after.

[deansdaddy]

Looks like we may have a few other members of this league coming here to post their teams as well - so that should be fun to look at and get some comparison. Interestinly the two who may come over drafted from the #1 an #2 spots in this draft.

[RobDMay]

Hello everyone I was the team that drafted from the #2 spot, this was my first crack at NFBC so I went with a strategy that I was most comfortable with which was load up on offense and wait on SP. I love the way my bats turned out I like my SP some high K guys WHIP will defiantly be an issue. I was on the wrong end of a few closer runs so that position could be a bit sketchy.

I will post my roster below if anyone has any specific questions about a pick let me know. If I have time later I will try to do a pick by pick break down.

The Upton Brothers squad.

C Ryan Doumit
C Ryan Hanigan
1B Paul Konerko
2B Martin Prado
SS Hanley Ramirez
3B Jose Bautista
CI James Loney
MI Mike Aviles
UT Vlad Guerrero
OF Justin Upton
OF BJ Upton
OF Jose Tabata
OF Colby Rasmus
OF Alex Gordon

P Edwin Jackson
P Edison Volquez
P James Shields
P Brett Anderson
P Jonathan Sanchez
P Kyle McClellan
P Alexi Ogando
P Brandon League
P Chris Perez

R Seth Smith
R Daric barton
R Alexi Casilla
R Johnny Cueto
R Michael Pineda
R Andrew Cashner
R Marz Rzepczysnki

[deansdaddy]

Hey Rob - thanks for jumping in - I don't have time now to get into too much (kids/dinner/husband) - but I will say that you totally skunked me on Ogando - who I obviously wanted to grab having Feliz. You also got two of my late round favs in Gordon and Seth Smith (actually MB favs here). I saw you write somewhere else that the Vlad pick at Round 11 was a turning point - and I agree - that pick could have perhaps been better spent on a second closer (Thorton/street/Valverde) or even better take another SP there. I look at when you took Edwin Jackson (15th rd) and J Kubel was taken right after. Swap Kubel for Vlad and one of these SP's for Vlad ( Beckett, Bumgarner, Hughes, Kuroda, Danks) and I think your offense doesn't lose much and your pitching look that much better. But - honestly - I thought you had a good plan - didn't throw any picks away and came away with a solid team.

[RobDMay]

Looks like you got your Feliz wish I could have used Ogando getting me some saves.