Are Today's Numbers Good Enough for Auctions

[viper]

This is more for auctions but can apply to straight drafts.

I'm thinking that any dollar changes for players, for the most part, is minimal and meaningless. The only exception is for players who change roles and even many of these adjustments are minor. A player like Rhymes may receive a small bump being named the starter but really how much? The real question is when will Carlos Guillen return and will he automatically take over the starting role. This is even more true for Chase Utley. An Utley decision will define your tolerance of risk level. I admit mine is low.

I think you can create final lists. You need depth chart and injury lists and those will be continually monitored but actual dollar values are pretty much stabilized. When Todd's Thursday projections come out, you should look at the tab showing AB and IP changes. Then consider small moves for those players with significant AB/IP changes. Each of us can determine our own amount of change.

For most of us, continuing to tweak CVRC results is a poor use of time. Learning the depth charts and reading things like Todd's player profiles are worth a whole lot more. My three etched in stone rules for all fantasy sports are:

1. read and understand the rules
2. re-read the rules
3. never forget rule #1

At this point in the season, turn the stone over and you will find three new rules:

1. read and understand player profiles and team depth charts
2. re-read the profiles
3. never forget rule #1

[AllstonRockCity]

This is the bush I was beating around in the 'setting up tiers' post of yours Mike.

Where I talked about mocking to learn one's cheat sheet like the back of your hand.

At some point during the spring (usually around now) the projections don't change by much. Any major changes are almost always related to a news story (injury, winning/losing the job) and can be factored in mentally without having to set up a new cheat sheet.

Another of the many benefits of using a tiered cheat sheet is that when someone gets a significant bump up, you just mentally move them up a tier or 2, maybe putting an asterisk by their name to signal that value change on your sheet.

For others this might not work, but for my main league you have 5 days from the time freeze lists are due until the auction. So, that's 5 days to learn who's out there and what they can do for you. I don't have enough time to learn all that and then make a new cheat for the new projection update that happens less than 48 hours before the auction.

Not that I don't appreciate weekly projection updates, cuz I do, I just don't have the time to use the hot off the presses version for my auction, I need the one prior.

So, Todd, now you know your numbers will be 7 days newer than my numbers next Saturday.

[aburt19]

I think there are a few cases where the changes in projections might be more than a minor adjustment. A couple of
examples from the AL. since that is all that I play:

1. Neftali Feliz is announced as being a starter. That changes his vaule significantly, as well as whoever becomes the
closer in Texas.

2. Scott Baker is in the rotation, Slowey is out. Not as significant as #1, but could affect Slowey's value down by more
than $3-$4. That assumes he doesn't get traded. The increase in Baker is probably not as significant.

Again, I don't expect there to be many that have a large effect, but I would expect a few of them.

[da_big_kid_94]

I can understand this line of thinking to an extent - especially for those who are drafting/auctioning this weekend (side note - how bout that Punxsutawney Phil, eh? Any truth to the rumor he was doing side work for Roto Times? Early spring, my fat behind! But I digress) - but, if RotoWorld can be believed, you're going to have a team that will have turned over it's entire roster by almost a third - and it's with pretty much all non roster players! That has GOT to affect the dollar amounts for a lot of the Mariner players. These are the types of situations that have a direct influence on auction day values - especially if you think some 9if not all0 of these types of players won't be around by the ASB.