Kila K for Thome?

[special k]

AL-only, standard 5X5, 10-team.
Considering trading a $2 Kila for a $3 Thome. Am worried about getting stuck at the draft without one of the eight good DHs, and we must draft a DH this Saturday per league rules. Know the 1B/3B pool is not limitless, either. Strikes me that Thome is more of a sure bet, Kila may have more upside, but Hosmer and Moustakos are lurking.
I am inclined to do this with a team that inadvertently protected two DH-only players and must trade Thome or lose a keeper.
Thoughts, please?


Keepers already: Peralta, R. Davis, Kinsler, J. Borbon, Swisher on offense
Felix, Hughes, Matusz, Carrasco pitching.

[Todd Zola]

I don't think Hosmer is lurking and unless they opt to put Moustakas at DH and move Butler to 1B, which I suppose is possible, I don't think he is a threat to Kila either.

Just for discussion, I count 9 good DHs with #10 being a bit of a risk but maybe someone to use until someone else eventually qualifies, like Manny.

Vlad
Ortiz
Thome
Matsui
Damon
Lind
Scott
Hafner
Cust
D Johnson (the risk)

I sort of like Scott at what he will likely cost, as well as Cust if he comes at a big discount.

[da_big_kid_94]

Manny already qualifies at DH ... so do Carlos Quentin, Jason Kubel, Billy Butler, Jake Fox and Jorge Posada. And ... if you REALLY like to live dangerously .... Milton Bradley. So there are more choices if you look behind just pure DH's.

[Todd Zola]

OPPS -- I thought there should be more, but I was in a rush and used a site that I though had all the guys with 20 games at DH.

Now I definitely would not do the deal.

[special k]

Problem is you can't assume those guys will be available, and several (Vlad, Papi, Hafner, Cust and Scott) are all ready protected. No one is going to put Posada or Mauer at DH when 20 catchers have to be drafted either. Damon or Manny, maybe.
I know you guys like Kila, but what happens if he does start slowly? Isn't Thome more of a sure thing?

[da_big_kid_94]

Problem is you can't assume those guys will be available, and several (Vlad, Papi, Hafner, Cust and Scott) are all ready protected. No one is going to put Posada or Mauer at DH when 20 catchers have to be drafted either. Damon or Manny, maybe.
I know you guys like Kila, but what happens if he does start slowly? Isn't Thome more of a sure thing?

If several are already protected (looks like 5) - Thome makes 6, that leaves 4 teams that need to fill DH - Lind and Matsui and Johnson make 9, Fox is 10. So who of these 4 don't you want? Which leads the question - exactly what are you expecting out of your DH?

The DH is becoming more and more of a wasteland - guys may very well put players like Posada or Mauer at DH when they realize how thin the pool is there - and there's probably a better chance of getting a star/scrub catcher situation than getting a halfway decent DH.

One other point - why help him out by making the deal when you know he can't keep him and has to throw him back? if you do deal, you're the one with the leverage ..not him - I may make the deal - but why does it have to be Kila? I'd also have some concern about the rumblings coming out of Ranger's camp about Borbon and his lack of defense making some folks wonder if he's in the majors opening day.

[Todd Zola]

Problem is you can't assume those guys will be available, and several (Vlad, Papi, Hafner, Cust and Scott) are all ready protected. No one is going to put Posada or Mauer at DH when 20 catchers have to be drafted either. Damon or Manny, maybe.
I know you guys like Kila, but what happens if he does start slowly? Isn't Thome more of a sure thing?

Even if some of those guys are put at regular positions, it still leaves many more than 10 acceptable players.

As for Kila, who do you see the Royals putting in for Kila if he starts slowly? Maybe Betemit? I just think his leash is pretty long and they will give him a good look. And I think his discipline helps minimize a prolonged slump.

[special k]

All good points, thanks. Will mull. I like Kila, but believe he is more of a gamble than Thome. I guess that is the central dilemma. I wish I trusted Royals management more, also.

[AllstonRockCity]

Thome is guaranteed to see less than 450 ABs.

Kila has a chance of seeing 600. Sure he might see less than 450, but he might see a lot more.

Thome might be 'safer' in terms of his floor, but his ceiling is also a known entity. Who knows what Kila could do with 600ABs?

Do you want to keep someone that is not an everyday player, or someone that will be unless he falls on his face? And quite frankly, if he falls on his face, you don't want him anyway, so KC will solve that problem for you and make him easily droppable.

Without risk, there is no reward. Why limit your upside.

And DBK is spot on, you've got all the leverage here, he's the one that's over a barrel.

[Trav The Ump]

Thome might be 'safer' in terms of his floor, but his ceiling is also a known entity. Who knows what Kila could do with 600ABs?

I disagree with this, I think we know what Kila's upside is or high end potential. If it were sky high he'd have been in the majors by now. You're correct in knowing that Thome is empty HR's but I don't think Kila is headed to the all-star game this year. Sometimes the devil you know is better than the devil you don't. If he's nothing more than a middling replacement player the Royals will keep him around and you'll have a boring player with no real trade value.

My two cents.

[AllstonRockCity]

I disagree with this, I think we know what Kila's upside is or high end potential. If it were sky high he'd have been in the majors by now. You're correct in knowing that Thome is empty HR's but I don't think Kila is headed to the all-star game this year. Sometimes the devil you know is better than the devil you don't. If he's nothing more than a middling replacement player the Royals will keep him around and you'll have a boring player with no real trade value.

My two cents.

Whoa! pump the brakes.

All I was saying is that no one know what Kila can do with 600ABs, not what he would do. And I think it is unfair to say that just cuz he looked like a AAAA player in the past, that he won't have success given the fulltime gig.

Don't know if you are a BBHQ guy at all, but one of Ron's rules that I really like is; don't discount a player just because they are given their 1st crack at a later age. So what if they are 28+ when they finally get the call, sometimes players take longer to develop, but if they're going to give 2 or 3 good years of ML production, it'll be now.

There are hundreds of players that were labeled as bust, or AAAA, then went on to give 3 years or so of productive performance. Jack Cust, Shea Hillenbrand, off the top of my head.

Do I think he's an All-Star? no. (well, given that stupid rule of 1 per team, he very well could be an All-Star)

Do I think he outproduces Thome? yes

But again, that's almost besides the point. Thome is going to DH most games, but get at least 1 or 2 games off per week. He is a part time player. Kila, unless he bombs, will play everyday. ABs win titles.

[special k]

Ah, there's the rub: "unless he bombs." And this is AL-only. It's not so easy as dropping a player as you refer to a post earlier, ARC, and finding a substitute that can produce 80 or 90 percent as much. If Kila flames out, I end up with Eric Chavez getting five ABs a week for the Yankees.
Agreed, Kila's ceiling is higher than Thome's.
The problem is his floor is lower. Yes, I think there is an 70-80 percent chance Kila keeps his job and runs with it.
And Thome will earn 70-80 percent of that final production if he does. Interesting risk-reward, indeed.
I think the Kila camp is probably right, and I just have to look at whether I need his 600 AB production to win my league. That's the risk/reward issue, truly.

[AllstonRockCity]

Anyone can bomb or get DL'd for the season at any time. Especially 40-something year olds with chronic back issues. Father time waits for no man.

I realize its AL-only, that's why I'm posting on the thread Unless they are theoretical type question, I try to stick to what I know, and that's AL only.

they each have the same floor, that's 0-1 then done for the year. I will grant you that Thome's known floor assuming no injury is higher, at least for this year. Next year, when we have another data point for Kila, that might not be true anymore.

And getting back to AL-only, ABs are what wins. Part-timer vs. Everyday player.

And don't forget, he needs this deal, not you.

[Todd Zola]

Another angle is what I did in Tout Wars and that is hedge Kila a little with Wilson Betemit.

Let's say Kila bombs, who plays 1B?

I don't think it is Hosmer.

Moustakas could DH and move Butler to 1B.

Or Betemit could see more AB.

Depending on how deep your league is, if you have $1 end gamers, using Betemit as a Kila hedge may work.

[AllstonRockCity]

Great point.

Gordon could move back to 1B also, no?

[Todd Zola]

Great point.

Gordon could move back to 1B also, no?

In theory, but that messes up the put him in LF, let him get comfortable so he can hit mentality.

They could put Melky in LF and use Cain/Dyson in CF.

I just have a hard time believing Kila will hit so poorly that Betemit or Cabrera would be better.

[special k]

But Melky is in "The best shape of his career" (TM)!
Good point on the injury history, too, Have brought up Borbon, awaiting response.
Let's hope KC brass sees same logic as the rest of us - you know, the folks who traded for Melky, Frenchy and Mazzaro and paid big bucks for J. Guillen and Farnsworth ...

[Trav The Ump]

ARC I guess this is why we all play the game, differences of opinion and proving who can see the future better.

I hope Kila does well just to see the highlight reel of sports announcers trying to pronounce his name. I think myself personally, also an AL only player who likes to post mostly on that, would rather run with Thome.

Although we've completely hijacked this thread, wasn't the OP looking to trade for Kila at almost par? Hopefully you can use some selling skills and talk that owner into giving him to you for a song rather than losing a roster spot. Expunge how important last roster spots are and how frequently they turn out.

[special k]

Borbon for Thome done.
I think I like this better given that Murphy is looking over Julio's shoulder and is on the left side of a potential platoon, and Murph did take over late last year, too, despite the rosy MB projection for Borbon, which granted predates what was probably just a shot across the kid's bow to work harder on his D.

[AllstonRockCity]

So now you have Thome and Kila and are keeping both, correct?

[da_big_kid_94]

Borbon for Thome done.
I think I like this better given that Murphy is looking over Julio's shoulder and is on the left side of a potential platoon, and Murph did take over late last year, too, despite the rosy MB projection for Borbon, which granted predates what was probably just a shot across the kid's bow to work harder on his D.

I think this is a smart play on your part ... you get the possibility that was Borbon having defensive problems off your roster, you get the guy you wanted and you keep Kila. Well done.

[special k]

ARC, yes, I have both Thome and Kila K

Appreciate the point on the ABs. I have only the third best keeper list, and I need to take the risk that Kila will break out and seize his opportunity if I am to make up the ground. And at the same time I didn't want to get stuck at DH, 1B isn't all that deep either. So thanks to all.

[Trav The Ump]

ARC and I going back and forth on the two guys and you end up with both of them. Way to mediate. Lol.

[special k]

Hey, give credit to Da big kid, he suggested Borbon for Thome. And I just read they started Murphy in CF today. My trade partner won't be happy!

But I do have finely honed mediation skills - I live with my wife and two teenage daughters. Someone's always upset about something, guaranteed!

[Trav The Ump]

Bump

Wow, both Thome and Kila have SUCKED!

[CubFan]

Kila will have a chance to fix his problems back in AAA. At 27 he may be labeled a AAAA from here on. The ship may be sailing on without him with Hosmer now being called up. And there is Clint Robinson who is also tearing up the ball in AAA. I thought the Royals would call him up before Hosmer.

[special k]

This was the definition of a lose-lose deal: Borbon for Thome, keep Kila!
How long before Borbon loses his job to some combination of Murphy/Moreland/Leonys Martin/Chris Davis?
What's that saying about the deck chairs on the Titanic?