My Auction Budgeting. Any Suggestions?

[Biggtyme13]

My Auction is $260 5x5 with W*2-L instead of wins. We draft 8P, C,1b,2b,3b,ss,mi,ci,4OF,UT.

My keepers are as follows
Stubbs $5
Vlad $7
Lilly $4
Cahill $5

I usually do the 195-65 split but reading up on Todds articles I plan to go to a 180-80 split and pay a bit more for pitching. This is what I am budgeting for and don't set it in stone but adapt and shift as draft goes on

Hitters: 35,35,25,25,15,10,10,9,7,5,2,2
Pitchers: 20,20,10,10,9,5,4,2

Being that we only need one catcher and 4 outfielders I plan to go big at the infield positions as there is always 5-10 dollar value outfielders laying around in the end game. Does anyone have any suggestions or anything that could help me out?

[deansdaddy]

Okay Bigtyme - I'll be honest - your question makes my brain hurt right now because crunching numbers doesn't come naturally to me. But I'll throw out some names and let someone else talk dollars with you.

First off- I really like three of your keepers. But let's face it - Vlad is old. Is he really the best 4th option you have? If he is - okay, but the dude is old.

I hear you on your move to embrace a different philosophy when it comes to pitching. If we are going to hang out in this neighborhood, it behooves us all to at the very least explore, if not embrace the theories the site espouses. I would never try to identify myself as the smartest guy in the rooms around here (cause I'm not), but even I can see that W*2-L means you need to target solid arms from winning teams as often as you can. No speculating on Indians or Pirates for you. You need to make sure you get guys on winning teams to round out your staff. Take Philip Hughes and/or Carl Pavano from 2010 for example. If you were to exclude W's from the equation you might say both had good years. Now add the W's. Suddenly they look great. A good portion of their value came from the 18/17 wins that they posted. How valuable were they in your format last year? Are they being kept by their happy owners? I'll be honest - I have no idea who is being kept in your league - but I'm going to focus on SP here for you assuming you go with your plan of targeting elite infielders.

Where did those W's come from? Easy, they were pitching for really good teams.

So - the $20 guys you won't need help identifying. You know who those guys are and you will be fighting for them. Hopefully you will be able to roster your share. I guess my challenge is to come up with some names for the 5,4,2 slots. Right?

Okay - let's see.

First guys that pop in my head are Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey of Minnesota. Right now they are reported to be battling it out for the 5th spot in the Minnesota rotation because somehow Nick Blackburn has the 4th spot locked down. Again, I'm not a real numbers guy. I pay good money to get Todd's numbers. I just know what I know and that is that both Slowey and Baker have more talent than Blackburn. Both unfortunately have been homer prone in the past (although the homer-dome is a distant memory now) and both have battled injuries. So, I guess it does make sense to guarantee neither of them anything this year in camp. Some have said that maybe Slowey will be traded. I don't buy that. Liriano is the one who will get traded if anyone will. I still beleive that Baker and Slowey are going to be Twinkies for awhile. Who could you target? Well, I've drafted Baker - so my bet is he is the early winner in this race. But the thing to remember is the Twins are going to win games and so will their SP's and they won't go for the prices of Phillies and Boston 4th and 5th starters. Brian Duensing is a name to tuck away for an endgame spot as well. It's very conceivable that he outproduces either Baker or Slowey as early as this year.

Let's look at another top AL squad in the Angels. How about Joel Pinero for one of those lower slots? I really like Pinero this year, although I haven't drafted him yet come to think of it. Still, many people will see the lack of K's and the low win total and not realize that an oblique injury stole about 8-10 starts from him last year. He posted a 3.84 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 23 starts last year. He won 10 and lost 7. 10 more starts could mean 4/5 more W's and a nice name to remember for the back of your staff.

I'll stay in the AL West and go to the team I think just might win the division, the Oakland A's (Lawr is smiling right now). Your league-mates will all be salivating over Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill and even Gio Gonzalez. You however will sit back and let them fight over them with the knowledge of the A you want to bid on, Dallas Braden. I will admit, this site is partly responsible for my faith in Braden. The other part comes from my faith in the organization itself. They know pitching better than most of the teams in the MLB, it's fair to say I think. Anyway, Braden is another low-DOM SP who won't hurt you in either ERA or WHIP and has a chance to deliver more W's than projected with just a little luck here and there. One thing you can count on - Billy Beane will always have multiple arms in the bullpen to close out games.

Real quick I'll throw out the name Jeremy Guthrie. He keeps getting drafted by my competitors before he even comes into my mind. Only later do I remember that he is technically the No 1 starter in Baltimore. He easily has to be the lowest ranked one in all of baseball. But you know what - if you look past his W-L record he put up some solid ratios last year. Go ahead, look. The Oriole offense is going to be better this year and I am not arrogant enough to think that the people I've been drafting against aren't at least as smart as I am. Trust me when I say, there are people out there who are banking on Guthrie to be a solid back-end SP this year.

Okay - I'm getting tired and have to call this quits but we will leave you with one name for last. The ones above, in case you didn't notice, all share one thing in common. They are not big strikeout guys (although Baker isn't terrible). Hopefully you will have gotten your K's already and can then benefit from buying one or two of these arms. My last guy is a name that first came to my attention from nowhere else than Todd Zola's Tier Sheet. I drafted on Wednesday and this player was drafted in the 26th round of a 15 team NFBC league. I personally drafted 2 pitchers ahead of him, one from the same team. The name is Kyle McLellan and I'm telling you, today I have a feeling that he's going to be a big story in 2011. I drafted Carlos Carrasco and Jason Motte instead of him even though he was easily the highest rated player on my sheet. I would gladly trade both of them for him today if I could. This has nothing to do with numbers and more to do with Dave Duncan and a good St. Louis team. I hate that I drafted Motte instead of him.

Here are a few more names that have come onto my radar from Mastersball and also forum poster Bodhizefa:

Aaron Harang, James McDonald, Corey Luebke, Homer Bailey, Jaime Garcia and the previously mentioned Carrasco. I would also add that most of these names I consider solid back end rotation guys. It is very likely you will only need one or two of these types of guys to fill out your fantasy staff. For instance - I drafted Aaron Harang and Scott Baker as my 5th and 6th starters yesterday.

[Trav The Ump]

Question about the Winning formula, can it go negative or is it a zero sum? Might be something in taking players like Bard who could give you a decent win total for little to no investment and go the other way with it if it is a zero sum game.

[Biggtyme13]

it can go into negatives if a guy is 5-11 that is -1 for hom

[AllstonRockCity]

get rid of that $9 P spot. turn it into a $2 and add the $7 to one of those $20 P's and get someone like Haren or Hamels.

2 good $2 MRs can help your ratios, your K's and possibly Saves.