when to take pitching when draft is offense heavy

[mva5142]

I haven't been in fantasy baseball along time, but have a little experience under my belt.

Aside from my first year in fantasy baseball where I took mark prior and kerry wood in rounds 1 & 2 I usually don't take pitching until at least round four some years as late as round 7 depending on how the draft goes. Over the last few years our draft has gotten more offense (hate to use the term offensive) heavy in the first 3 rounds than prior.

I just did a mock (# 2 pick, snake draft) with random folks on yahoo and no pitchers were taken in the first 2 rounds so I was left selecting nelson cruz at the begining of the 3rd round which is way to high with injury risk and all, but if I didn't take a bat then who knows whats left at the end of round 4 when it comes back to me.

So the question came up, when a draft goes like that when do you zig and would you ever take your pick of starting pitchers with the 23rd and 26th pick?

I don't expect my league to be that drastic, but want to prepare for everything

League is a private yahoo 12 team league 6x6 with R, SB, RBI, HR, AVG, OPS and W,L, SV, K, ERA, WHIP

Any adivce is appreciated.

Love the site by then way. Lots of smart people and good info.

Matt

[Todd Zola]

I wrote a 2-part series that addresses this very point

PART ONE

PART TWO

[rotonut]

I like to be the guy at a start of a run rather than the end, so, based upon how you value the hitters versus pitchers in your particular league, by all means pick a pitcher. My guess would be that other will follow and there may be more offense available to you than you might think.

My guess is that hitting is weighted higher (besides the injury risk, etc.) in your particular league because of the categories, and especially the extra 6th category. OPS is very hitting oriented -- and power hitting oriented at that. Losses is much more subjective. How many times did Johan Santana pitch a great game the last two years only to be saddled with a loss? Losses, like wins, are too dependent on other variables such as the fielders behind you, team offense, bullpen, etc.

So, it all comes down to proper valuation of the players based on your league parameters. You need a good set of values in which to rely. Thereafter, if you feel that your valuation gives you an edge, then I wouldn't be shy to pull the trigger on a pitching anchor.

Andrew

[deansdaddy]

Well - the fact that you guys have OPS as a category - it makes sense that big bats would go early and push the SP's down a round or two.

Cruz was an excellent pick in this format since his OPS from last year (.950? /granted less AB's) ranked him near the Top of that category. I would say don't worry - just seems like your league is factoring this stat into their thinking. I think you will start to see SP's coming off the board at a normal pace starting soon. I think you made a smart decision to wait. You will still have a quality arm there for you at the 4/5 turn.

[mva5142]

Thanks for all the replies. I appreciate the feedback.

Todd,

Thanks for the link to the articles. After reading them I have a question. In the Dan Haren example about him being available while tier 3 pitchers are being selected, why wouldn't you want to grab him as value wise he would be a bargain and instead of picking two lesser (higher point value) pitchers later, you could pair a decent hitter and pitcher together and end up with haren, hitter, lesser pitcher vs hitter, lesser pitcher, lesser pitcher. I might be reading it wrong and getting the wrong idea. If there is stuff in here that the platinum folks pay to see, I don't want you to have to spill the beans, just trying to get a handle on the reasoning.

Thanks again.

Matt

[Todd Zola]

Thanks for all the replies. I appreciate the feedback.

Todd,

Thanks for the link to the articles. After reading them I have a question. In the Dan Haren example about him being available while tier 3 pitchers are being selected, why wouldn't you want to grab him as value wise he would be a bargain and instead of picking two lesser (higher point value) pitchers later, you could pair a decent hitter and pitcher together and end up with haren, hitter, lesser pitcher vs hitter, lesser pitcher, lesser pitcher. I might be reading it wrong and getting the wrong idea. If there is stuff in here that the platinum folks pay to see, I don't want you to have to spill the beans, just trying to get a handle on the reasoning.

Thanks again.

Matt

I'm not exactly sure I am following the question, but when it comes to Haren, i definitely have to make a decision.

Do I take him when the tier 2 pitchers are being drafted or do I pass and hope he makes it to tier 3 and take him then?

Usually, if there are a few players still left in tier 2, I will pass on Haren, take someone else and roll the dice Haren makes it to me later. Since there are still some tier 2 pitchers left in this scenario, there is a good chance I get him.

If I want a tier 2 pitcher and the tier is running dry and Haren is ranked higher than the other guys in the tier, I will take Haren "at value".

More often than not, however, I indeed roll the dice because it appears I am leading the pack with respect to Haren's expectations.

[mva5142]

Ok, I re-read that section and I think I had the wrong impression the first time, and your answer clears it up.

I read that section as you would be ok passing on haren for two lesser starters for the opportunity to get a bat. By explaining that you would gamble he makes it back cleared everything up.

thanks again for the help. It is appreciated.

BTW I first found mastersball back when you wrote a column for CNNSI and it was linked in the paragraph that told about you. Really enjoyed following your advice and columns and was disappointed that mastersball disappeared for a bit. Glad that it is back. I appreciate it.

[Todd Zola]

BTW I first found mastersball back when you wrote a column for CNNSI and it was linked in the paragraph that told about you. Really enjoyed following your advice and columns and was disappointed that mastersball disappeared for a bit. Glad that it is back. I appreciate it.

Thanks. FWIW, we really didn't disappear, we became part of another web site for 2 years, but then left and came back on our own. This is our 3rd year back, the 2nd after merging with CREATiVESPORTS.

[mva5142]

Thanks again.

hope to learn enough to be able to contribute a little bit instead of just asking questions.

Matt