Handling Free Agents in Keeper leagues

[Tig]

Assuming Bobby Abreu signs in the AL, where does his auction value come in? what tier?

how do you handle/value all the other unsigned FA's?

I realize this is a tough call, as his value would differ depending on where he is indeed playing his home games, hitting in the lineup, etc.

While keepers arent due, Im trying to gauge if he is a $20 keeper in my 12 team ($260 cap) AL only league if he does return to the AL. Otherwise, I can simply move on and/or try to trade him.

[Todd Zola]

Good question

First I will explain a bit how we are handling projections of unsigned players and confess to a boo boo on my part.

Players like Abreu are projected just like everyone else, subjected to a series of translations resulting in what we call a NEUT projection, meaning park neutral with no subjectivity altering the objective projection. This includes playing time.

We include this projection in the MIXED leagues, so you can see how we project Abreu, Manny, Sheets, etc., in a neutral setting. Once they sign, the first thing we will do is alter the projection based on the home park, this is part of the automated process. Next we will look at the playing time with respect to the rest of the team. Third we will look at the skills and decide if the player's skills are either growing or declining faster or slower than is dictated by the global translations we incorporate in the projections model.

I purposely left Abreu out of the AL and NL only values and tiers. I INTENDED on having him and the other unsigned players be in the mixed values and tiers, but mistakenly omitted them from the tiers, something I will correct with the next posting,

What I would do is take a look at where Abreu falls with respect to other outfielders in the value rankings then see where those outfielders fall on the tier you are concerned with. But keep in mine this is the NEUT projection. If you have a hunch he plays in a hitter's park, bump him up, vice versa for a pitcher's park. If you think he gets more AB than our projection, bump him up, downgrade him if you think he gets fewer, perhaps if he goes to the NL and there is no DH.

[cwk1963]

Todd, what about adjustments for which division a player is in based on the pitching in the division due to the unbalanced schedule? If someone winds up in a strong pitching division do your projections take this into consideration vs a weaker pitching division? Or is this something we have to do based on our own feeling towards this?

[Guest]

Yeah, you have to do that yourself - it's a valid concern but quickly you can get into splitting hairs too fine - we do adjust for park and league but after that, we dont take it further.

[Todd Zola]

I'll embellish a little more --

A few years back, I had a conversation with someone who had done some research on this very issue, and the conclusion at the time, albeit with a limited sample in terms of years, was while the strength of hitting and pitching in divisions could be used to explain certain results after the fact, future weakness and strength per division was not very predictable. Factor in the general adjustment period involved with switching teams/divisions/leagues, there is really no global way to apply a "division factor". As Gary says, everyone is free to do this intuitively, just as they are welcome to predict a ground ball pitcher might not be as affected in a hitter's park, etc.

[Mosey]

Todd, what about adjustments for which division a player is in based on the pitching in the division due to the unbalanced schedule? If someone winds up in a strong pitching division do your projections take this into consideration vs a weaker pitching division? Or is this something we have to do based on our own feeling towards this?

You are most likely wasting your time. This "what if" implies you know every starter and that the 6 extra starts a player may get vs the Dodgers in the west make a split lick of difference than the ones they get vs Philly, and then hope that Hamels has that series off.

Think of all the players than have entirely random 4-5 with 2 HR days against good (or any) pitchers when ti wasn't expected. That alone swings

Where that unknown which makes no difference is well behind factors like home park, if the manager likes him, if he is injury prone, if he likes a little poon on the road, if his pants are tight and if he has Dish or cable at home.

What kinds of swings are you looking at in these calculations? Your average player is already +/- $3 on any projection out there, are you adding what +/- 50 cents to that? So, Milton Bradley moved to a "pitching weak" division and your bid ranging from $17 to $22 moves to $18 to $23. Big deal if the guy two spots over has only one OF at the time and a $24 next to his name on a sheet.