AL-only Keeper Advice

[Kelly_Leak]

League specs: 10 teams, AL-only, maximum of 6 keepers, $260 draft cap, $100 FAAB in season.

I am currently exploring trades, but let's assume I can't move anyone before our March 14th deadline. Some of our rules are not ideal, but the league is pretty set in it's ways, so I have given up trying to change them. For instance, you will notice I have a moderately priced Miguel Cabrera. I have him because I owned Andrew Miller several years ago...when Miller was dealt to the Marlins for Cabrera, I was given Miggy for $10 at the time. Also, winning FAAB bid amounts are the assigned salaries for the won player (PVH, I've tried to change this!!!). I anticipate about 20% inflation on the hitting side and 10% inflation on the pitching side.

There are 2 different types of keepers:

1.) 2010 Free Agent pickups or 2010 Keepers:
These players have the option of getting a $5 raise OR "one and outing" them at last season's salary making them ineligible to be kept the following year (2012). You will see 2 prices listed for these types of players.

2.) 2010 drafted players:
These players' 2010 salaries are frozen for the first year if they are kept. You will only see 1 price listed next to these players.

Choices (aside from Jennings, all these players are projected to earn some kind of profit in my league):
- Miguel Cabrera $20 or $25 (2010 keeper)
- Adam Lind $11 or $16 (2010 keeper)
- Sean Rodriguez $6 or $11 (2010 keeper)
- J.P. Arencibia $1 or $6 (FA pickup)
- Alex Gordon $1 or $6 (FA pickup)
- Kila Ka'aihue $1 or $6 (FA pickup)
- Mike Moustakas $1 or $6 (FA pickup)
- Grady Sizemore $1 or $6 (FA pickup)
- Coco Crisp $7 (drafted last year)
- Ervin Santana $7 (drafted last year)
- Carlos Santana $4 (drafted last year)
- Desmond Jennings $3 (drafted last year)
- Colby Lewis $3 (drafted last year)
- Jeremy Hellickson $1 (drafted last year)

I am currently leaning toward M.Cabrera ($25), C.Santana ($4), J.Hellickson ($1), C.Lewis ($3), E.Santana ($7), and ????

Maybe Sizemore ($6) or Crisp ($7) for the last spot? Both have the same injury concerns. Any others you might consider?

[special k]

I wouldn't describe Crisp and Sizemore's injury concerns as similar. Sizemore had microfracture surgery, from which some athletes do not return and which may well rob him of his speed regardless. Crisp is fragile, for sure, but does not seem to enter the season with any significant injury concerns. And he has a fulltime job, and the As seem to want to contend this year. And Mastersball projects him at $18 or so with 39 SB, nice complement to Miggy to head into your auction. I'd go for it, as a fellow AL-only 10-team guy.

[Captain Hook]

Here is your list and my comments
- Miguel Cabrera $20 or $25 (2010 keeper) DEFINITE KEEPER
- Adam Lind $11 or $16 (2010 keeper) would NOT keep
- Sean Rodriguez $6 or $11 (2010 keeper) unlikely keeper with your other choices
- J.P. Arencibia $1 or $6 (FA pickup) Would keep at $1 in a two catcher league
- Alex Gordon $1 or $6 (FA pickup) maybe
- Kila Ka'aihue $1 or $6 (FA pickup) SOLID keeper at $1
- Mike Moustakas $1 or $6 (FA pickup) Great upside
- Grady Sizemore $1 or $6 (FA pickup) would NOT keep
- Coco Crisp $7 (drafted last year) would keep IF you are going for it
- Ervin Santana $7 (drafted last year) borderline keeper
- Carlos Santana $4 (drafted last year) DEFINITE KEEPER
- Desmond Jennings $3 (drafted last year) another Great Upside play I would keep
- Colby Lewis $3 (drafted last year) DEFINITE KEEPER
- Jeremy Hellickson $1 (drafted last year) DEFINITE KEEPER

So back to the drawing boards....
1) Do you think you have a Very Good or better chance of competing this year?
1a) Does that depend on who you keep?

2) Are you comfortable taking a risk this year but being better for the future?

IF the answer to #2 is Yes, then I would keep
Miguel Cabrera @ $25
Carlos Santana @ $4
Colby Lewis @ $3
Jeremy Hellickson @ $1
Desmond Jennings @ $3
Mike Moustakas @ $6


If you strictly want to play for this year then you have to cut some of the long term guys for more bang for your buck this year and I would keep
Miguel Cabrera @ $25
Carlos Santana @ $4
Colby Lewis @ $3
Jeremy Hellickson @ $1
Kila Ka'Aihue @ $1
Coco Crisp @ $7

[AllstonRockCity]

Choices (aside from Jennings, all these players are projected to earn some kind of profit in my league):
- Miguel Cabrera $20 or $25 (2010 keeper) No Brainer
- Adam Lind $11 or $16 (2010 keeper) I like for $11, BA drain possible, but 25+HR likely
- Sean Rodriguez $6 or $11 (2010 keeper) $6 is nice for a MI who should get lots of ABs
- J.P. Arencibia $1 or $6 (FA pickup) meh
- Alex Gordon $1 or $6 (FA pickup) everyone looks interesting at a buck, but serious upside
- Kila Ka'aihue $1 or $6 (FA pickup) my favorite of all your $1 players, worth the $6
- Mike Moustakas $1 or $6 (FA pickup) throw him back, not worth keeping a guy that might not be up for a while
- Grady Sizemore $1 or $6 (FA pickup) worth the risk at a buck, but do you want it?
- Coco Crisp $7 (drafted last year) you need speed, but you can't steal bases while on the DL
- Ervin Santana $7 (drafted last year) could probably get at a similar price in auction
- Carlos Santana $4 (drafted last year) keeper
- Desmond Jennings $3 (drafted last year) same boat as MooseTacos
- Colby Lewis $3 (drafted last year) for sure
- Jeremy Hellickson $1 (drafted last year) tempting

I am currently leaning toward M.Cabrera ($25), C.Santana ($4), J.Hellickson ($1), C.Lewis ($3), E.Santana ($7), and ????

If it's me I'm keeping Miggy, Kila, Santana and Colby for sure, so that's 4 guys, 2 to go.

I would keep those 4 whether I'm playing for this year or not. Some contracts might change in one mode vs. the other, but not those 4 guys.

Then for the last 2 you need to factor in which mode you are in. If I were playing to win, I think I might go Lind and SRod, cuz the ABs will be there and you aren't keeping any other MIs or OFs and those 2 could earn nicely at those prices. In rebuild mode, Hellickson and Sizemore tempt me a lot. Hellickson cuz he's young and touted, Sizemore cuz he's a fantastic trade chip if he's healthy, especially at $1.

[deansdaddy]

I think I like the Captain's list here the best:

Miguel Cabrera @ $25
Carlos Santana @ $4
Colby Lewis @ $3
Jeremy Hellickson @ $1
Desmond Jennings @ $3
Mike Moustakas @ $6

I think both Jennings and Moustakas will be up sooner than we think but by June at the latest. That's the risk - but they will be good once they arrive and you will have the option to keep them if they both bust out. I think this is the path I would take, but I am a risk taker. Still, look again at those names and consider what 2012 could look like with them as well. SWEET!

[AllstonRockCity]

I think I like the Captain's list here the best:

Miguel Cabrera @ $25
Carlos Santana @ $4
Colby Lewis @ $3
Jeremy Hellickson @ $1
Desmond Jennings @ $3
Mike Moustakas @ $6

I think both Jennings and Moustakas will be up sooner than we think but by June at the latest. That's the risk - but they will be good once they arrive and you will have the option to keep them if they both bust out. I think this is the path I would take, but I am a risk taker. Still, look again at those names and consider what 2012 could look like with them as well. SWEET!

The Manny/Damon signings severely limit Jennings stock. I bet you can get him for $3 again this year, so why waste a keeper spot when you can get him at auction? He might not be up at all until rosters expand.

Moustakas certainly could make an impact this year. He also might not. Again, would he really go for more than $6 at auction??

Are there any reserve lists in this league?? Any bench??

[Kelly_Leak]

I hate when life gets in the way of fantasy baseball...sorry it took me so long to follow up on my own post. ARC, we have 5 reserve spots (plus an additional 5 DL spots if needed). Also, I am definitely playing for this year!

I finally, took a good look at everyone's roster and guessed at who will be protecting who. A quick calculation has hitting inflation at 14.0% and pitching inflation at 36.3%! So basically, I grossly underestimated the pitching inflation in my original post.

Right now my definite keepers are:
- M.Cabrera @ $25
- C.Santana @ $4
- C.Lewis @ $3
- J.Hellickson @ $1

Canidates for my last 2 spots are (this is where I need help):
- E.Santana @ $7 ... has moved up the list b/c of pitching inflation concerns.
- C.Crisp @ $7 ... SBs and a little power, but injury concerns (at least he will be ready to go to start the season; as opposed to the next player listed).
- G.Sizemore @ $1/$6 ... has there been any other baseball players that have under gone microfracture surgery? Anyone to compare him to? He kind of stunk in 2009 when he was somewhat healthy.
- K.Ka'aihue @ $1/$6 ... He would tie up my CI, a position that appears to be very deep (albeit most are all 1Bman - Miggy, AGon and Konerko I suspect will be kept, but everyone else is available).
- M.Moustakas @ $1/$6 ... I would guess I can get him back for somewhere around $6 if I really want him. This would save $$$ in the long term because whatever he is drafted for in 2011 will be his salary in 2012.
- D.Jennings @ $3 ... same concept as Moosetacos above. I can probably reacquire if I want for around the same investment and save a bit in 2012.

I am currently looking to deal for a 3Bman as I suspect Longoria, Beltre, and Bautista will all be kept. We'll see. Again, the deadline is March 14th.

[mjlewis]

wandering off-topic a bit... is there value in calculating hitting and pitching inflation separately?

- Mike

[Kelly_Leak]

wandering off-topic a bit... is there value in calculating hitting and pitching inflation separately

I actually calculate inflation by category and then roll it up to either hitting or pitching. This is particularly helpful when a lot of top HR, SB, Save, or Strike Out players are kept. In my league this year several of the top tier SPs (Felix, Haren, Lester, Weaver, Price, Feliz, Anderson) will be kept at significantly reduced values. This is what is driving the pitching inflation. Our league has been in existence for about 10 years and we have consistently been close to a 67/33 Hit/Pitch split. Knowing this, I still expect pitching to constitute 33% of the total budget. And since several teams have great pitching keepers I expect the remaining teams to fight for the last few left (Verlander, Sabathia) as well as the mid-tier pitchers (like a Ervin Santana).

Does that make sense? Todd had some articles on calculating inflation by categories (and thus by hit/pitch) a couple years ago.

[AllstonRockCity]

I hate when life gets in the way of fantasy baseball...sorry it took me so long to follow up on my own post. ARC, we have 5 reserve spots (plus an additional 5 DL spots if needed). Also, I am definitely playing for this year!

I finally, took a good look at everyone's roster and guessed at who will be protecting who. A quick calculation has hitting inflation at 14.0% and pitching inflation at 36.3%! So basically, I grossly underestimated the pitching inflation in my original post.

Right now my definite keepers are:
- M.Cabrera @ $25
- C.Santana @ $4
- C.Lewis @ $3
- J.Hellickson @ $1

Canidates for my last 2 spots are (this is where I need help):
- E.Santana @ $7 ... has moved up the list b/c of pitching inflation concerns.
- C.Crisp @ $7 ... SBs and a little power, but injury concerns (at least he will be ready to go to start the season; as opposed to the next player listed).
- G.Sizemore @ $1/$6 ... has there been any other baseball players that have under gone microfracture surgery? Anyone to compare him to? He kind of stunk in 2009 when he was somewhat healthy.
- K.Ka'aihue @ $1/$6 ... He would tie up my CI, a position that appears to be very deep (albeit most are all 1Bman - Miggy, AGon and Konerko I suspect will be kept, but everyone else is available).
- M.Moustakas @ $1/$6 ... I would guess I can get him back for somewhere around $6 if I really want him. This would save $$$ in the long term because whatever he is drafted for in 2011 will be his salary in 2012.
- D.Jennings @ $3 ... same concept as Moosetacos above. I can probably reacquire if I want for around the same investment and save a bit in 2012.

I am currently looking to deal for a 3Bman as I suspect Longoria, Beltre, and Bautista will all be kept. We'll see. Again, the deadline is March 14th.

I am going to continue to lobby for Kia until I see him on your definite list.

I disagree the CI is deep in ALonly this year. In your format, you need 30 CI's. The 3/3/11 projections show the followin luminaries at the end of the CI pool. Numbers 27-30 are: Callaspo, Moreleand, Inge, Morel, not bad. Numbers 31 to 34 are: Teahan, Viciedo, Trumbo, Davis....Yikes! There is P.T. risk all over the place. Kia has 2 months of the job being his alone, which should set him up nicely for the remaining 4 months. At his price, the risk is minimal. He also could prove to be a valuable chip to a rebuilding team looking to acquire cheap major league talent. (hey, maybe they've never heard of Hosmer )

I feel that Jennings could be had on reserve or at the very least, less than $3 in auction. ( again manny and damon killed his chances)

I don't think Crisp is worth the risk. Not only is he an injury concern, but OAK has once again brought about 17 OFs to camp.

Everyday that passes makes Sizemore look worse and worse. At this point, you might be able to throw him back and still get him for a buck if you wanted. I can't remember his name, but he was a really good player when he was with PIT, he went to SD (his hometown) in the Jason Bay deal. He was getting old and breaking down, then had microfracture surgery. It bought him 2 more years I think. Man, this is killing me, he was a top OF in his day, what's his name?? daaaahhhhh

IMO we are down to Ervin vs. Moose for that final spot. I think your own comment about Moose is the right way to go. Even if you had to pay $7 this year, it'll still save you $4 next year.

So, there you go, Ervin and Kia and the 4 you already mentioned.

DO IT!!!

[Kelly_Leak]

Man, this is killing me, he was a top OF in his day, what's his name?? daaaahhhhh

Brian Giles?

ARC, Thanks for the input. Kila and Ervin are the leading candidates for those last two spots. Good to see Kila hitting a little bit so far this Spring...I know its only ST, but it certainly can't hurt.

[AllstonRockCity]

Yes, I had actually remembered his name when I was outside, raking and thought, "Brian Giles! don't forget to post it". oops

Thank you.

But, yeah, I'm pretty sure that was the deal, microfracture. Different types of players at different points in their careers, same procedure.