Big Tex vs. AdGon

[AllstonRockCity]

Assuming Cabrera will put up the best numbers of any AL first baseman, who will put up the second best numbers?

If you think its Teixeira, why?

If you think its Gonzalez, why?

Or, do you think one of them will actually surpass Miggy?

I know which way I'm leaning, but could easily be swayed by some public opinion.

[deansdaddy]

I think it's Adrian Gonzalez and I think most will agree with that. Why? Hey it's close - lets not lie. I think the one place that Gonzalez could have a significant edge over Tex this season is in the BA department. He makes slightly better and more consistent contact than Tex does, which gives him a better chance to take his AVG into the .310-.325 range. I just don't see that for Tex. Also - I think you can easily make the case that Gonzalez has slightly better table setters ahead of him in the lineup than Tex and will be batting in the 4th spot, while Tex likely remains in the 3 spot (or drops to 5) because the Yanks will still separate him and Cano with RHB Arod in the cleanup spot. So again, while I think both will have no trouble driving in lots of runs - I think the Gonzalez has more upside in this category as well just due to slightly more opportunities than Tex will get. Obviously the biggest issue I see in trying to make this decision now is the shoulder surgery for Gonzalez vs. the Hamstring injury than Tex had. The shoulder could very well hamper Gonzalez' power numbers coming out of the gate. It could be a season long issue. Even if that's true, I think the move to Fenway and the AL he still hits 35-40 bombs even if the power takes a little time to come back. I do think it's better to plan on that then assume he's jumping right up to 45-50 this season. Might not happen til next year.

I don't think you can choose him ahead of Cabrera yet. The reality of the shoulder means you don't take that chance - but sure he could top Miggy. But Miggy still has growth potential in his numbers as well. A 50 hr/triple crown season is coming for this guy in the next few seasons. I wouldn't bump Gonzalez ahead of him on my list for fear of missing it.

[Black Sox]

This is a quote from the man himself talking about the risk the Red Sox were taking trading for him without knowing how his shoulder would respond...

"Worried about his shoulder? He had played the entire season with it hurting. Multiple doctors had assured him that surgery would only make it better, he said, and in the off chance it didn't, well, he'd already figured out how to play in pain, as his 31 home runs, 101 RBIs and .298 batting average had proved." G.Edes ESPN

Too me it's not that close a decision I think the power numbers will be projected equal, the main differance is going to be with average. A Gon is closer to Miggy than he is Tex. Look what playing in Boston did for A.Beltre's numbers and he's not even 1/2 the hitter A Gon is. A Gon is a professional hitter in every sense of the word. Fenway will do for him what Colorado does for most. But again I'll let the man say it himself....

"But for me, it's not just Fenway, it's the fact I don't have to hit in San Francisco, I don't have to hit in Dodger Stadium. The biggest park in the AL East is Tampa, which is a smaller version of Dodger Stadium.''

"I would say the pitching is comparable in the AL East vs. the NL West. Actually, I think if you go team by team, the NL West has better pitching. The Yankees have great pitching, but outside of the Yankees in that division, I guess Tampa Bay comes behind them. "Where in the NL West you're facing Ubaldo Jimenez, you're facing [Tim] Lincecum, you're facing [Matt] Cain, [Jonathan] Sanchez, Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, you name it. Every single team's got guys. I guess the easiest team right now in the NL West is Arizona, and they're a bunch of young guys that throw the ball well.'' G.Edes ESPN

[Captain Hook]

Gonzalez assuming you are figuring in BAvg

[AllstonRockCity]

Thank you all for your input, you have been most helpful.

I can't believe no one can make the case for Tex. Anyone?? Hello??

But, I guess that's kind of the point.

[captgus]

There isn't much that I can add here that already hasn't been said. I do believe that getting out of the NL West and no longer playing in those cavernous ballparks can only benefit Adrian. The one thing I would like to point out though is that playing in sleepy San Diego is vastly different than playing in a big city like Boston, at least judging from the last time the Red Sox and their "nation" rolled into San Diego for a weekend series. I suspect it's nothing but there have been others before him that haven't fared so well going from a small market team to a large market team, for whatever reason.

[Todd Zola]

Let's pretend this is debate team in high school and you have to be ready to argue either side. Here is a case for Teixeira.

If you look at their numbers with blinders on, their 3-year averages are almost exactly the same, it is scary. They have averaged the same number of homers and have hit for the same average, but Teixeira has scored more runs and knocked in more. In addition, last year, Teixeira hit .256 which was an extreme outlier for him and Gonzo hit .298, his best mark of the previous 3 seasons so this season, it is quite reasonable to expect Tex to hit for a higher average than Gonzo.

But if you take off the blinders, you have to account for 2 things which is why everyone is tipping the scales to Gonzalez. He is in a better lineup so he has more run producing chances and he is in a better park.

Thinking about the lineup, since both averaged the exact same number of homers and hit for the same average the past 3 seasons and the quality of the Yankees and the Red Sox lineups are similar, it is reasonable to say the RBI and run would be a wash as well.

That brings us to park effect. If you take .285-35 and adjust it for a LHB moving from Petco to Fenway, you get .320-44 and the corresponding increase in run production. And while it is true that Petco is a far worse hitting environment than Fenway, this is a merely an educated guess as to how Gonzalez will be impacted by the change, based upon how all lefties, on the average, are affected. Obviously though, it is safe to say his numbers will be better in Fenway.

That brings us to the 400 lb gorilla lurking in the corner of the room, and that is AGonz shoulder. Reports are he will be a bit behind after of season clean up surgery, but he should be ready for opening day. A few of the industry injury analysts are preaching caution the first couple of months, suggesting his power might be down. This is sort of the textbook thing to do and has merit, but, we are still dealing with an injury, hence the unknown. But, even if you dial down expectations the first couple months, overall, Gonzalez should still have better numbers.

The case for Teixiera lies within the "unknown". It is unknown how the park will impact Gonzalez, or at least to what extent, but more importantly, it is unknown how long it will take for Gonzalez to be 100% after off season shoulder surgery. And, it is unknown how much it will dampen his numbers until he is 100% and if there will be ample time for the positive park effect to overtake the negative injury impact. Sometimes it is better to know what you have going in, making it easier to plan what you need at the end. If you are more comfortable being able to count on Teixeira's expected level of production and can use that as a basis for a winning foundation and don't need to potential upside of AGonz, well, as the saying goes, sometimes it is better to dance with the devil you know as opposed to the devil you don't.

[Black Sox]

Todd,

Love the fact you attempted to argue the other side. One counter point to the A Gon is coming off shoulder surgery so his early numbers might be down would be to look at what Tex gives you the first 6 weeks of the season. His early struggles are well documented.

[Todd Zola]

Todd,

Love the fact you attempted to argue the other side. One counter point to the A Gon is coming off shoulder surgery so his early numbers might be down would be to look at what Tex gives you the first 6 weeks of the season. His early struggles are well documented.

Except in roto, we don't care the path it takes, all we care about is the end result. If you play H2H, it may make a difference, but not in roto.

And while Tex struggles are well documented, it is not a sure thing this is anything more than happenstance.

[Black Sox]

Todd,

I've heard the whole if a coin is flipped 9 times and comes up heads 9 times how likely is it to come up heads on the next flip? Answer 50%. But were not talking coins, were talking players. At what point does the evidance add up and suggest that it's reasonable to assume that Tex will struggle for all of April, when the player has done it year after year.

My point was people who want to knock A Gon down due to concern over a slow start only need to look at Tex and see how slow starts can be overcome in the end.

[Todd Zola]

Todd,

I've heard the whole if a coin is flipped 9 times and comes up heads 9 times how likely is it to come up heads on the next flip? Answer 50%. But were not talking coins, were talking players. At what point does the evidance add up and suggest that it's reasonable to assume that Tex will struggle for all of April, when the player has done it year after year.

My point was people who want to knock A Gon down due to concern over a slow start only need to look at Tex and see how slow starts can be overcome in the end.

To address your first point, that is an analogy I have made a few times and have discussed it a little bit with the baseball HQ folks on their board.

The level of stats to really answer the question is above my pay scale. My rather crude example is thus. If 16 people flip a coin 4 times, one is going to get heads all 4 times. This is akin to having a down first half then a better second half four years in a row. So using simple probability, 1 of 16 players will do that -- that is about 1 hitter per team. So using very crude, elementary analysis, it can be argues that Tex just falls towards one end of the Gaussian distribution of probable outcomes. Extend it to 5 years, and 1 in 32 players can exhibit that pattern. Make it 6 years and it is 1 in 64, which is still within realm, considering there are about 450-500 hitters.

Again, those more versed in stats can poke holes and/or refine this argument.

But, I think it is reasonable to assume that 4 years does not HAVE to be "player related", it can be on the extreme of random distribution.

That said, I am sure there are indeed some players that are legit first half/second half guys. I don't think we have a means to unequivocally say Tex is one. Or is NOT one.

And that, my friends, is why we play the game!!!

[Black Sox]

Good answer and I understand your overall point. I just think your wrong . I just think the example you give takes the human element out of it. I don't know exactly why Tex struggles in April, I've just seen it happen to him too many times not to expect it year after year. But I'll trade your stastical analogy for a real life one.

Say my wife and I are going to see a movie that starts at 7:30 and I know if I want arrive on time I need to leave by 7pm. Now I also know that wife is always 15 minutes late, I mean the evidence is quite frankly.... large. Now that isn't to say she's late every time, just that I've gotten screwed out of the beggining of the movie too many times to know it's not out of the relm of possiblity and in fact quite likley. What do you do? You tell her ther movie starts at 7:15 so that the worst that happens is were early.

[Todd Zola]

I agree with that to a degree and said so here:

That said, I am sure there are indeed some players that are legit first half/second half guys. I don't think we have a means to unequivocally say Tex is one. Or is NOT one.

Tex may very well indeed be a true 1H/2H guy. We just don't KNOW that he is.

Some prefer to be the guy that lets someone else draft Tex, then tries to trade for him in May to get the good stuff.

I am the guy that drafts him and hopes that this is the year the odds even out and he has a good start, and then I deal him to someone thinking he will get EVEN BETTER.

And if he doesn't have a good start, I am confident that he will turn in his usual numbers by October.

[Black Sox]

Good Point.

To poke holes in my own example would be A. Laroche a classic 1H / 2H player, yet when he didn't struggle and put up good numbers in the 1H last year lot's of people started predicting this was the year he'd put it all together, yet when all was said and done his stats looked about the same from previous years.

[Skin Blues]

The level of stats to really answer the question is above my pay scale. My rather crude example is thus. If 16 people flip a coin 4 times, one is going to get heads all 4 times. This is akin to having a down first half then a better second half four years in a row. So using simple probability, 1 of 16 players will do that -- that is about 1 hitter per team. So using very crude, elementary analysis, it can be argues that Tex just falls towards one end of the Gaussian distribution of probable outcomes. Extend it to 5 years, and 1 in 32 players can exhibit that pattern. Make it 6 years and it is 1 in 64, which is still within realm, considering there are about 450-500 hitters.

Again, those more versed in stats can poke holes and/or refine this argument.

But, I think it is reasonable to assume that 4 years does not HAVE to be "player related", it can be on the extreme of random distribution.

That said, I am sure there are indeed some players that are legit first half/second half guys. I don't think we have a means to unequivocally say Tex is one. Or is NOT one.

And that, my friends, is why we play the game!!!

I used this exact example with Dan Haren last year. The coins, and the probability, everything. And what do you know - he was much better in the second half than the first half.

My opinion is that while there very well may be players that are better in certain times of the year, they are so hard, if not impossible to identify, that's it's not worth the effort. Even if you have a fictional player that is pre-disposed to having a bad first half (hypothetical since it's not possible to identify), odds are he's still pretty likely to have a worst first half than second half every couple years. I suppose some of it could be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Or maybe they try harder to dispel the myths. Who knows. Too many variables. Much more important things to take into consideration. Draft Teix; reap the rewards.

[Todd Zola]

The level of stats to really answer the question is above my pay scale. My rather crude example is thus. If 16 people flip a coin 4 times, one is going to get heads all 4 times. This is akin to having a down first half then a better second half four years in a row. So using simple probability, 1 of 16 players will do that -- that is about 1 hitter per team. So using very crude, elementary analysis, it can be argues that Tex just falls towards one end of the Gaussian distribution of probable outcomes. Extend it to 5 years, and 1 in 32 players can exhibit that pattern. Make it 6 years and it is 1 in 64, which is still within realm, considering there are about 450-500 hitters.

Again, those more versed in stats can poke holes and/or refine this argument.

But, I think it is reasonable to assume that 4 years does not HAVE to be "player related", it can be on the extreme of random distribution.

That said, I am sure there are indeed some players that are legit first half/second half guys. I don't think we have a means to unequivocally say Tex is one. Or is NOT one.

And that, my friends, is why we play the game!!!

I used this exact example with Dan Haren last year. The coins, and the probability, everything. And what do you know - he was much better in the second half than the first half.

My opinion is that while there very well may be players that are better in certain times of the year, they are so hard, if not impossible to identify, that's it's not worth the effort. Even if you have a fictional player that is pre-disposed to having a bad first half (hypothetical since it's not possible to identify), odds are he's still pretty likely to have a worst first half than second half every couple years. I suppose some of it could be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Or maybe they try harder to dispel the myths. Who knows. Too many variables. Much more important things to take into consideration. Draft Teix; reap the rewards.

I talked about Haren in a recent free article. The thing with Haren has always been that his first half and second half peripherals have been pretty close, but the ERA was higher in the second half.

I suspect Haren will be on more than one of my teams this season. In fact, I think he already is

[Milnertime]

I think it's apt to point out that Teixeira has actually done well in April before. His first half (and really, it's just first month) struggles are well documented because of the market he plays in.

The same thing happened with ARod and the whole "chokes in the playoffs" fiasco. His performance in the 2000 ALCS (against the Yankees, ironically enough) was far from a choke job but the market dictates the storyline in New York and ARod was an easy target.

Back to Teixeira, the "dance with the devil you know" post someone made is most fitting. Worst case scenario outside of injury is that he sucks in April and is awesome the rest of the year. I think most people can live with that.

[AllstonRockCity]

Thank you very much to all who posted on this thread. This was a bit of a sociological experiment and you all helped me a great deal.

I suppose I should start at the beginning. My main league is an AL Keeper. My partner and I compete against Todd and 9 other long time players. I knew in late Jan/early Feb that both AGonz and Tex were going to be available in this league. Looking at our keeper list I also knew that power and production were going to be our big needs in the auction. So, I looked at some numbers to compare Tex and AGon and what I found surprised me quite a bit. I averaged each of their stats over the past 4 seasons:

Gonzalez: 601ABs 284BA 287xBA 34HRs
Teixeira: 570ABs 291BA 298xBA 34HRs

So here we have this fantasy-wide perception that AGonz is better than Tex and the primary reason (statistically speaking anyways) is BA. Well, Tex actually has a higher BA and xBA over the past 4 years. This whole perception stems from their actual BAs for 2010 in which Gonzalez hit significantly higher than Tex.

Your posts here helped confirm my suspicions. Adding these two points to what I knew was some anti-Yankee bias in my league, we just knew that we could/would get Tex cheaper than AGonz and possibly even Youk.

Our suspicions were confirmed this past Sat afternoon when Tex went for $38 and Youk $40 and then Gonzalez at $44. That's $6 more than Teixeira, or 1 whole player on your roster.

One of them has 3HRs, the other 2 do not.

Sorry to make you all unwitting guinea pigs, but you need to keep some things under wraps when you compete against the guy you get your advice from.

[deansdaddy]

Congrats on the quick start. I still say Gonzo out produces Teixeira when it's all said and done.

[AllstonRockCity]

Congrats on the quick start. I still say Gonzo out produces Teixeira when it's all said and done.

He might. (and as a Sox fan, I hope he does). The point is that it would have to be $7 worth or more of out-producing, and I don't see that happening.

[deansdaddy]

I won't disagree there.

The original question didn't deal with dollar values -(and you give the reason why).

I that context I can totally buy targeting Tex based on the fact that Gonzo definitely had more pre-season buzz and would inevitably cost more.

Who'd that other $7 get you?

[AllstonRockCity]

It didn't go to any one slot, it was used to go the extra dollar and get the players we knew we wanted.

CQ for $24, Manny for $18 (prepared to go to $22), and Alcides Escobar for $16. We only needed to buy 7 hitters. These 4 were our targets and we bought 3 end gamers: Marson $2, Andruw $3 and Ryan Sweeney $3. Might as well post the whole thing. Keepers in bold:

C: Santana $7, Marson $2
CI: Longoria $22, Morel $7, Tex $38
MI: Beckham $7, Casilla $5, Escobar $16
OF: Choo $18, Bourjos $7, CQ $24, Manny $18, Jones $3
2U: LaPorta $7, Sweeney $3

P: Anderson $14, Porcello $7, Soria $16, Uehara $1, Danks $23, Floyd $18, Lackey $15, Arrieta $3, Takahashi $2, Leuke $1

I already know how you feel about Manny. I can't believe that one of the greatest right handed hitters of all time goes out like a punk, I just can't.

[deansdaddy]

AL only - I can see taking a chance on him.

Mixed leagues I would pass every time.