The Mike Napoli Wheel of Fortune

[viper]

And it spins again coming up Texas. He has been an Angel, Blue Jay and Ranger these last five days. Impressive.

[Captain Hook]

Todd and I were discussing this earlier and I really like the move for the Rangers IF (capital I and capital F) they platoon him against LH SP and in the right PH situations. He can play C, DH and some 1B and gives them great lineup flexibility - and as much as I like FF, the Rangers didn't pay much for Napoli's added power

[Todd Zola]

While I (selfishly) hope Napoli plays a bit more than against just southpaws since I have taken him in a couple early leagues, he is definitely not going to get the 80% time I now have him for with Totonto.

[da_big_kid_94]

I read Rob's article on Napoli on the main page and I tend to think Todd's assessment is closer to what is going to happen. For Napoli to get a lot of playing time, the situation is the same with the Rangers as it was with the Angels - break camp with three catchers on the 25 man roster. Napoli owners also have to hope that Mitch Moreland flames out a la Chris Davis - you know there won't be many times where Michael Young sits in favor of Napoli. So, given the circumstances today, i would temper my estimates of his PT as long as the status quo is maintained.

[Todd Zola]

"Status quo" is the key. Kinsler gets hurt, Young plays 2B and Napoli DH. Same with Beltre. If Moreland hits and say Cruz gets hurt, he may side to the OF, though there are some other candidates (Murphy). Plus, either Torrealba or Treanor can catch a foul tip off the finger, etc.

We can "predict" Kinsler to get hurt, so that will open up some projected AB for Napoli. The rest is being conservative and HOPING for more. Because of the potential for more, Napoli is someone I may be willing to pay a couple extra bucks or draft him a round "early" for that potential.

[Bodhizefa]

"Status quo" is the key. Kinsler gets hurt, Young plays 2B and Napoli DH. Same with Beltre. If Moreland hits and say Cruz gets hurt, he may side to the OF, though there are some other candidates (Murphy). Plus, either Torrealba or Treanor can catch a foul tip off the finger, etc.

We can "predict" Kinsler to get hurt, so that will open up some projected AB for Napoli. The rest is being conservative and HOPING for more. Because of the potential for more, Napoli is someone I may be willing to pay a couple extra bucks or draft him a round "early" for that potential.

I agree wholeheartedly. Even if you don't see Napoli out there in the starting line-up on Opening Day (unless the Red Sox give Lester the nod), I think he's the de facto benefactor on any and all injuries. Kinsler will miss, in all likelihood, 20 games or more. Beltre will get more days off than he'd like, but my opinion is that they'll want to protect their investment in him longterm. And forgive me for not being sold on Moreland just yet, too. Oh, and Bengie Molina is a 36-year-old catcher with both declining games played and performance for two years in a row (the most recent of which showed him in a severe spiral downward power-wise).

I'd put the over/under on Napoli's plate appearances around 450. Only ten catchers in the big leagues had more than that last year, and I have to imagine Napoli's going to be offensively better than many of those guys, too, despite fewer appearances. Napoli is what he is at this point -- a useful catcher in fantasy. My dreams of him hitting 30 homers were shot when he was dealt out of Toronto, but he's still a quality catcher for anyone not expecting the world from him.

[Todd Zola]

My dreams of him hitting 30 homers were shot when he was dealt out of Toronto, but he's still a quality catcher for anyone not expecting the world from him.

Shot? Or just at the 90% percentile of probability?

[AllstonRockCity]

"Status quo" is the key. Kinsler gets hurt, Young plays 2B and Napoli DH. Same with Beltre. If Moreland hits and say Cruz gets hurt, he may side to the OF, though there are some other candidates (Murphy). Plus, either Torrealba or Treanor can catch a foul tip off the finger, etc.

We can "predict" Kinsler to get hurt, so that will open up some projected AB for Napoli. The rest is being conservative and HOPING for more. Because of the potential for more, Napoli is someone I may be willing to pay a couple extra bucks or draft him a round "early" for that potential.

I agree wholeheartedly. Even if you don't see Napoli out there in the starting line-up on Opening Day (unless the Red Sox give Lester the nod), I think he's the de facto benefactor on any and all injuries. Kinsler will miss, in all likelihood, 20 games or more. Beltre will get more days off than he'd like, but my opinion is that they'll want to protect their investment in him longterm. And forgive me for not being sold on Moreland just yet, too. Oh, and Bengie Molina is a 36-year-old catcher with both declining games played and performance for two years in a row (the most recent of which showed him in a severe spiral downward power-wise).

I'd put the over/under on Napoli's plate appearances around 450. Only ten catchers in the big leagues had more than that last year, and I have to imagine Napoli's going to be offensively better than many of those guys, too, despite fewer appearances. Napoli is what he is at this point -- a useful catcher in fantasy. My dreams of him hitting 30 homers were shot when he was dealt out of Toronto, but he's still a quality catcher for anyone not expecting the world from him.

First off, welcome to 2011 Bod, I was hoping you'd re-emerge this year.

2nd I agree with the above sentiments. That sweltering heat in Arlington does lead to more routine days off than happen on most other teams. It's all part of knowing your home confines and maximizing the advantages it gives you.

[Skin Blues]

Bengie Molina is a 36-year-old catcher with both declining games played and performance for two years in a row (the most recent of which showed him in a severe spiral downward power-wise).

Molina isn't there anymore, it's Torrealba, Treanor and Teagarden. I have a feeling the only reason Treanor is still around is so they can gawk at his wife at team functions. It's certainly not because of his bat.

[Bodhizefa]

My dreams of him hitting 30 homers were shot when he was dealt out of Toronto, but he's still a quality catcher for anyone not expecting the world from him.

Shot? Or just at the 90% percentile of probability?

Edited:

Let me put it like this. I believe Napoli's 70th-80th percentile in Toronto was to hit 30 homeruns. Now it's off the charts.

[Todd Zola]

My dreams of him hitting 30 homers were shot when he was dealt out of Toronto, but he's still a quality catcher for anyone not expecting the world from him.

Shot? Or just at the 90% percentile of probability?

I figured he had an 80% or more probability of hitting 30 homeruns in Toronto. I think that has declined significantly (to 10-15%) with him in Texas.

Sematics

We are saying the same thing.

My 90% means if you have a bottom to top range of projection, 90% means 90% of the best possible outcome.

Which is like a 10% chance of getting there.