AL-only keepers

[special k]

About a month away from submitting keepers in my 10-team, AL-only standard 5X5 league, but am talking trades and wanted some early feedback. This league does tend to spend high on starting pitching, and I am inclined to keep at least three of those even though profits on each aren't much according to Mastersball numbers. I also plan, as usual, to write off saves, making starters more valuable. I am allowed to keep 10.

Pitchers:
Felix H., 33; Hughes, 10; Matusz, 10; Slowey, 10; Niemann, 8. (Also G. Floyd, 12, but ... meh)

Hitters: Vlad, 21; Damon, 16; Kinsler, 20; Rajai Davis, 17; Swisher, 14; Posada, 13; Borbon, 4; and Ka'ahuie, 2.

Am currently trying to pry loose Beltre (9), Drew (7) or Ortiz (5) loose from a pitching-starved team for Hughes. Asked for Beltre, expecting a Drew counter or a "Get lost," but doesn't hurt to ask. Probably won't keep Vlad or Damon. Thoughts beyond that, please?

Thanks.

[Captain Hook]

About a month away from submitting keepers in my 10-team, AL-only standard 5X5 league, but am talking trades and wanted some early feedback. This league does tend to spend high on starting pitching, and I am inclined to keep at least three of those even though profits on each aren't much according to Mastersball numbers. I also plan, as usual, to write off saves, making starters more valuable. I am allowed to keep 10.

Pitchers:
Felix H., 33; Hughes, 10; Matusz, 10; Slowey, 10; Niemann, 8. (Also G. Floyd, 12, but ... meh)

Hitters: Vlad, 21; Damon, 16; Kinsler, 20; Rajai Davis, 17; Swisher, 14; Posada, 13; Borbon, 4; and Ka'ahuie, 2.

Am currently trying to pry loose Beltre (9), Drew (7) or Ortiz (5) loose from a pitching-starved team for Hughes. Asked for Beltre, expecting a Drew counter or a "Get lost," but doesn't hurt to ask. Probably won't keep Vlad or Damon. Thoughts beyond that, please?

Thanks.

Welcome to the forums and to looking at our 2011 teams.
In all these discussions I would like to know with the first question how many roster spots you fill on draft day (active/reserve/minors) as it helps give a better answer right away. It also helps to know what the salary structure for your free agents is and whether you have an in season salary cap.

First blush I would keep - King Felix, Hughes, maybe Niemann or Slowey, Kinsler, Posada, Borbon, Swisher, and Davis - so eight

Vlad (close to deal with Orioles) and Damon are not keepers for me at those prices.
Obviously what you can accomplish in a trade changes this.

I would go harder for Beltre and not as much (if at all) for Drew and Ortiz. If his response is negative, try to add either another pitcher and/or Vlad or Damon obviously asking for a very cheap but useful keeper from him.

Finally I understand what you likely mean in writing off saves - you don't want to overpay for them on draft day.....but don't purposely or negatively ignore them all together - there are always a few interesting relievers who are just a day or two away from getting a chance and finding one in the draft and one in the FA pool will rescue very valuable point or two

[special k]

No love for Kila? Projected at $16 by Masters.
I also like Matusz. I had him for his final 46 innings last year: 29H, 6BB, 1.57ERA. 0.89WHIP. Highly encouraging.
Papi and Drew are also projected at $19 and $16, respectively, although I agree Ortiz carries a flame-out risk.
We have 23 players, 9P and 14H, and must fill a DH slot. $5 for Papi given that requirement is not too shabby, either. Sorry for not including that info. Would still rather fill 3B with Beltre, though, especially from a team that has the right to protect AGon for $5 from its reserve list last year and can afford to deal some power and has only W. Davis and E. Santana ($6 each) as starting P keepers!

[Todd Zola]

The Kila projection is "mine" and is admittedly optimistic both in terms of playing time and performance. I am pretty confident that he will perform if he gets the time, the question is whether he will get the time.

I just profiled Kila yesterday and debated whether to hedge the playing time, but ultimately decided not to, but to instead point out the playing time risk within the profile.

KC has a bunch of moving parts. Kila is somewhat hindered in that he can only play 1B or DH, and since they already have Billy Butler locked up, only one is realistically open for him. And since one is the DH spot, basically, a player at any position can impact Kila as they may opt to switch that player to DH and put Butler at 1B.

The first wild card is Moustakas. The plan is that he plays 3B, forcing a battle at 2B between Getz and Aviles. But what if both Getz and Aviles are playing well? Why not get Moustakas some AB at DH?

Next is Eric Hosmer, who ideally needs more time in Triple-A but could slug his way into earlier consideration, and he is also locked in at 1B (or DH).

Kila's window is small, but he has a clear path to AB early on so I went with what I feel will happen as the chance Aviles and Getz force Moose to DH is slim.

That said, Kila's long term future may not be with the Royals.

I see him easily earning the $2. But it is really a matter of opportunity cost. Maybe you get $14 if you freeze him. Or perhaps you feel you can get him back for say $7, earning $9 profit, and you can choose another keeper to make up the difference.

[special k]

OK, but if I get him back at $7, that's $5 more at risk. And our auction is before the season. Granted, things should be clearer then. But that means if Kila's prospect's look dubious, I can throw him back, or if things look good, I'm golden. If I don't protect Kila at $2 and it looks like he will play, then he will cost more. So my inclination is either to protect him at $2, or try to get him back for that or not much more (which wouldn't be bad, I could keep him another year), or just never mind. $7 is too much to pay, methinks.

Thoughts on Matusz breaking out?

[Todd Zola]

FWIW, Kila would be on my list instead of where Perry has either Niemann or Slowey.

As for Matusz, it is not my style to "predict" breakouts. If there were something there to suggest a breakout, it would be worked into the projection engine and reflected in the numbers.

That said, Matusz certainly profiles as someone CAPABLE of taking it up a notch and is at age it could happen and he has the pedigree suggesting it might.

The concern I have is his fly ball rate is high. While this unto itself is not a concern (fly balls that stay in the yard are usually outs), you need 2 other skills to balance this.

1. High K-rate - no contact, no fly ball, no chance of a homer
2. Low walk rate - minimizes runners on base when a ball does leave the yard.

Curt Schilling and Johan Santana are a couple of anecdotal examples of fly ball pitchers that were still aces based on dominance with exceptional control.

So while Matusz K9 and BB9 are not horrible by any means, he needs to improve both to "break-out".

Or, induce more grounders.

[Captain Hook]

OK, but if I get him back at $7, that's $5 more at risk. And our auction is before the season. Granted, things should be clearer then. But that means if Kila's prospect's look dubious, I can throw him back, or if things look good, I'm golden. If I don't protect Kila at $2 and it looks like he will play, then he will cost more. So my inclination is either to protect him at $2, or try to get him back for that or not much more (which wouldn't be bad, I could keep him another year), or just never mind. $7 is too much to pay, methinks.

Thoughts on Matusz breaking out?

First, sorry I must have spaced on KK - sure I would protect him at $2 as long as nothing bad has happened in spring (and :winkwink: as a Platinum member with access to my daily Cactus League Notes you will have first hand knowledge of at least the Royals, Ranger, Brewers, and Diamondbacks with notes on every team here) I think Ka'Ailue is safe to start the year (unless he is terrible or injured in March) but I would want a backup plan in place for the second half of the year when they might have to let Hosmer test the waters.

You are preaching to the choir on Matusz - Jason and I were the firsts that were really big on him years ago and I had drafted him before that......BUT the AL East is very tough - he faces the Red Sox and Yankees nineteen times each and the Rays are no slouch especially with two veteran good RH hitters added, hard to pitch in Toronto, AND the Orioles are a work in progress - the defense will Not help him. So while I like him in a vacuum, realize the reality of the situation and what can you hope for? Let's not get heart in the way of head unless you have lots of wiggle room in your league eh?

[special k]

All good points on Matusz. He was killing all those teams at the end of last year after I picked him up as an FA, though ... 43-6 K/BB ratio on my team! ... If I can swing the deal for a hitter he may be the one I'll let go. I just think I may regret it ...

[AllstonRockCity]

About a month away from submitting keepers in my 10-team, AL-only standard 5X5 league, but am talking trades and wanted some early feedback. This league does tend to spend high on starting pitching, and I am inclined to keep at least three of those even though profits on each aren't much according to Mastersball numbers. I also plan, as usual, to write off saves, making starters more valuable. I am allowed to keep 10.

Pitchers:
Felix H., 33; Hughes, 10; Matusz, 10; Slowey, 10; Niemann, 8. (Also G. Floyd, 12, but ... meh)

Hitters: Vlad, 21; Damon, 16; Kinsler, 20; Rajai Davis, 17; Swisher, 14; Posada, 13; Borbon, 4; and Ka'ahuie, 2.

Am currently trying to pry loose Beltre (9), Drew (7) or Ortiz (5) loose from a pitching-starved team for Hughes. Asked for Beltre, expecting a Drew counter or a "Get lost," but doesn't hurt to ask. Probably won't keep Vlad or Damon. Thoughts beyond that, please?

Thanks.

Without knowing what some other Aces are frozen for in your league, I might throwback the King at $33, that's a lot of coin for 1 pitcher. BUT, if the CC's, Weaver's and Haren's of the world are all north of $30, then I would keep him. So that one is up to you (well, really they all are )

Hughes and Matusz: I will lump together as I think they will both tire this year and be lucky to outperform last year (I love each of them and expect both to have great careers, but they still have a learning/growth curve ahead of them). So, no for me at $10. They are sexy as hell however, so they are fantastic trading chips.

Slowey and Neimann: I will also lump together as I would keep both of them at those prices. Not high K guys, but they are solid and steady and on the upside of their careers. You grab 2 guys better than them and a couple end gamers and there is your staff.

I agree that Floyd at $12 is meh

I agree that Vlad and Damon go.

$20 is a good price on Kinsler. It all depends on your risk tolerance and what other MI's are available. But I would most likely keep him at $20

Rajai and Borbon: do you need 2 jackrabbits?? yes, you will kill the SB cat, but that's a lot of HR/RBI to sacrifice. They are both at good prices, I trade the one that gets me the most back and keep the other. Or head into the year with both if there aren't any good offers and look to trade one by May.

Posada and KK: Definite Keepers: KK earns $2 even with 250 ABs, he's a nobrainer. Posada as the DH with C eligibility looks good for 1 more year, which brings me to....

Swisher: I have never been a fan of his. He's OK at $14, BUT, with Posada at DH and Gardner/Granderson locked in at their positions, this is the Yankee who's PT is the least guaranteed. They signed Andruw for a reason and that is to starts against lefties. That puts Swisher on the good side of that platoon, but it is still a platoon. My gut says that RF is the position the Yanks look to upgrade at the deadline. If you disagree with the previous; keep him, if you think any of it makes sense, throw him back.

[special k]

I think Jones platoons at least half the time with Posada, not Swisher, but just an opinion. I also think Yanks will throw money at pitching, not hitting, but been wrong before!
And Hughes made the big inning jump, for sure, trying to trade him - will look into the Matusz inning jump. He finished so strong I am skeptical that is an issue, but will do the research.

[AllstonRockCity]

And Hughes made the big inning jump, for sure, trying to trade him - will look into the Matusz inning jump. He finished so strong I am skeptical that is an issue, but will do the research.

This is always more of a gut call than anything. Last year at this time I was preaching on these boards to stay away from Wainwright after his IP jumped 101 from 2009 to 2010. How'd that work out for me?

Its not quantifiable, it's speculative.

FWIW, I LOVE Matusz. I had to trade him last year and it broke my heart. I see him as a left handed Dan Haren.

[Todd Zola]

This is always more of a gut call than anything. Last year at this time I was preaching on these boards to stay away from Wainwright after his IP jumped 101 from 2009 to 2010. How'd that work out for me?

Keep in mind he did have elbow stiffness and the end of last season, and at least 2 injury analysts are cautious (Stephania Bell, Will Carroll).

There is much debate over the legitimacy of the Verducci rule -- people "want" it to be invalid so they are going out of their way to try to prove it so. I have not done any research myself, nor have I really, really studied the argument or counter-argument. but, I have a friend (Rick Wilton) that I trust more than anyone on the subject and I will ask him.

I may even ask him about Wainwright

[special k]

Todd, by "he" did you mean Wainwright or Matusz, please?

[AllstonRockCity]

wainwright.

matusz was healthy as a horse

[Todd Zola]

yes, definitely Wainwright.

[AllstonRockCity]

This is always more of a gut call than anything. Last year at this time I was preaching on these boards to stay away from Wainwright after his IP jumped 101 from 2009 to 2010. How'd that work out for me?

Keep in mind he did have elbow stiffness and the end of last season, and at least 2 injury analysts are cautious (Stephania Bell, Will Carroll).

There is much debate over the legitimacy of the Verducci rule -- people "want" it to be invalid so they are going out of their way to try to prove it so. I have not done any research myself, nor have I really, really studied the argument or counter-argument. but, I have a friend (Rick Wilton) that I trust more than anyone on the subject and I will ask him.

I may even ask him about Wainwright

See, I uh, told you so. So what if this is 10 months late, I called it.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring201 ... id=6150113

[Captain Hook]

This is always more of a gut call than anything. Last year at this time I was preaching on these boards to stay away from Wainwright after his IP jumped 101 from 2009 to 2010. How'd that work out for me?

don't want to throw water on this but not sure what you mean "jumped 101 from 2009 to 2010"?

year.. IP
2007..202
2008..132
2009..233
2010..230

maybe in 2009 you said it jumped 101 from 2008 but the year before he pitched over 200 innings

[AllstonRockCity]

last year, when I was saying that, he had not pitched yet in 2010. I was referring to the 101 IP jump from 08 to 09. Sorry for the confusion, thanks for the catch. Really poking fun at myself more than anything.