Total Control Drafting and the Portfolio 3 auction strategy

[IronMarshal]

As I do every year, I am reading Shandler's book in addition to Mastersball, as I begin preparation for the upcoming season. I slipped from my usual top spot to the middle of the pack, and am eager to get back to the top.

Background:
Anyway, I am in a 9 team NL only 5x5, 14 hitter, 9 pitcher $260 auction keeper league (7 keepers max). Pretty much standard rules. In the past, I have used variations of stars and scrubs, especially since I had a really great keeper list at very low cost (Howard, Pence, Lincecum at $5, Hanley at $1, Broxton at $3 etc). It was easy to spend big bucks on star talent (usually good power guys and a stud starter or two) and fill the roster, and be right in the thick of it. My league is more competitive now. The guys are leaning to emulate my strategy and they are bidding on young talent I used to steal at the end of the draft. I have to change strategies every year or two to stay ahead of them. Last year, I believe I lost my shot at a third straight (and 5th in 6) title at the draft. I knew who the winner was when the draft was over. He had made a few good dump trades the previous year and had some real nice very cheap keepers (my good keepers had since had salary increases, but still good at an average of $15 each) and a ton of cash. He won the league by a dozen points and it was over by the end of August.

Back to the subject:
Shandler is recommending a Total Contral Draft strategy that really interests me. I have a tendency to target players anyway, and this strategy does that. For those unfamiliar with it, the strategy is essentially, create your optimal draft pool and get those players.
Since it requires the use of another strategy, be it LIMA or Portfolio 3, I think of TCD as a grand strategy, and the secondary strategy as a theater strategy (in MilSpeak).
The portfolio 3 plan uses three tiers and budgest for each tier. It sounds like a sound plan to me. Any thoughts on this?

[Todd Zola]

I'm familiar with TCD and P3 etc. And I think they serve their purpose (more in a minute).

But at the end of the day, it is not HOW you get, but WHO you get.

That said, if using TCD/P3 helps you organize and focus, it serves its purpose.

But, if you win, I do not believe it is BECAUSE you used TCD/P3. It is because you chose the proper players while using that.

Of course, one may argue that TCD/P3 was integral to your choosing those players. And that is great.

But I will argue that I could have ended up choosing the same players "my way", without using that.

While comfort and focus are important, it still boils down to who you pick.

[50 Desert Eagles]

I have to agree with Todd.(not sure if that is a bad thing or not) Every year I get tons of papers/data/notes/profiles/little league stats, but when it comes time to pick, I usually look at my needs based on who I got and who is out there left. I mean if its the sixth round and I have no sp's and two 2b's players and I see Uggla sitting there and then see a solid SP, my data says Uggla is worth $19 and this SP I am looking at is worth $15....based on my needs and value for my team I would take the SP, it also depends on how many sp's I have watched fly off, I will admit, I am in deep leagues, 20 teams mixed, so by sixth round, I could see 50 sp's already taken, so Brad Penny might be a stud....HA....Some manangers EAT up sp's, but the majority takes hitters. My drafts are all online too, so I have a limited time to pick and search, if I had more time I could a ton more looks before I picked, but its a bam bam draft usually.

[viper]

doesn't the phrase "Total Control Drafting" have an oxymoron embedded in it someplace. Unless, of course, you are the one person in the league.