Last week decisions

[viper]

I'm looking for thoughts/options.

NFBC satellite. My lead is 7½. My plan is to minimize starts by adding four disabled player and starting my three non-starters. Therefore just two active SPs. I just have $4 of FAAB left so I can't have less than two SPs active.

Wins and Saves are not applicable. I am locked in Wins and am tied in saves with gaps on both up and down sides. He has Koji and Sale and I only have Wags.

Ks could drop one or two. I have a 14 right now. I'm 38 over the team at 13 and 58 over the team at 12. I can accept a drop of one point.

ERA could go up or down one point. Whip has no upside and could drop four. [1.1251, 1.1251, 1.1252, 1.1256 & 1.1257]

Option are
(1) Slowey who has no scheduled starts but some think he may have a road start at KC even though I can find no indications of that right now. I'm scared they may throw him against Toronto on the final weekend.
(2) Tim Hudson with a single home start against Florida on Wednesday - would he go on short rest if needed?
(3) Ubaldo with starts on Monday against LA at home and Saturday at St. Louis. If he gets his 20th win on Monday and they are eliminated, would the Rockies shut him down for the Saturday start.
(4) Myers at Cincy on Thursday
(5) Hunter At home against Seattle [danger Will Robinson]
(6) Haren Tuesday at home against Oakland and Sunday in Texas [would regulars rest?]

My current thoughts are Ubaldo and Hudson

[Kelly_Leak]

My ranking:
1. Hudson
2. Ubaldo
3. Haren - If it was only Oak, he would be in my top 2. My guess is Tex plays most of their regulars on the last day of the season as a "tune up"...although they may only play until they get 2 ABs.
4. Myers - Cin should clinch before Thur and may be resting some guys...but it is @Cin.
5. Slowey - I don't think he starts against Tor; HOWEVER, who is Min planning on using as their post-season SPs. We know Liriano is set for game 1, then some combination of Pavano, Duensing, and Slowey (Baker in pen)? If that is the case, Slowey could be given the start on Sunday and then used as their 3rd/4th starter in the playoffs?


6. Hunter - not even an option.

Good luck!!!

[viper]

Actually things have changed over the last few days. Mulling over the options I have is really no fun. It's not that I wish I was sitting in 2nd or 3rd place but, at least then, my options would be a lot easier. As of Monday morning, my lead is 2½ points. $625 is on the line.

ERA has pretty much become a non-issue relative to downside. I'm at 3.603 and the closest follower is 3.698. In fact the team above me is 3.552. I could move up but I really need him to implode more than I do well. ERA and WHIP are category that can be volatile but the volatility is normally a function of bad weeks and not good weeks.

WHIP is very interesting. The 13 is my closest competitor. He (team named HopHead) is at 1.2555. I am at 12 with a 1.2567. The next two teams in the category are 1.2571 & 1.2599. Everything is in play for both of us.

Saves has always been both close and low. I am at 38 (4 category points) and next is 37. I have Wagner and now Burnett. The 37 guy has Koji & Perez. I always felt I could lose a point here.

Unfortunately, Strikeouts have come in play after my week of just 27 Ks (my year long low week). I am at 1301 (category score of 14). Next in line are 1274 & 1255. I need to hold this.

My latest plan, and the one I have set at noon, is to start Ubaldo (2 starts), Haren (2 starts) and Wilson (2 starts). Note i forgot to mention him before. Slowey & Hudson have Sunday starts currently scheduled. They are on my bench but I have two pitchers on the disabled list as active. I can make none, one or two changes on Friday based on what happens the first four day. Regardless, I will have three pitchers going on the last weekend with one on Sunday. This will make next weekend a bit interesting.

It's only money. Earlier this year, I decided this was my last year playing the NFBC. If I win this league, things may change. If I lose this title in the last two weeks, I will go to just my four locals leagues. Two weeks ago, the lead was 9½. Last Sunday it was 8. It is now 2½.

Enough about a league that no one but me really cares about.

[Kelly_Leak]

Hope you stuck with your "latest plan" as of 12noon yesterday! Slowey got roughed up! And while CJ Wilson didn't pitch too well he at least picked up some Ks.

[viper]

I did. the lead is now a single point. Right now it looks like it could come down to Sunday. Even though I am ahead, the pessimist in me likes his position a bit better. The keys for me are (1) Wagner/Burnett getting more saves than Koji & Perez and also holding on to a two HR lead. With all the players being rested or done for the season, the Friday hitter adjustments will be key. The team that was threatening me in strikeouts is now back by 39 but he does have 4 SPs going today. During the last 4 days I have him outnumbered 3 to 2. I can add an extra starter but would prefer not to.

This is fun - sort of. It is gut-wrenching definitely. I cannot imagine how I would feel if this was for the $100,000 first prize award.

I've been tracking daily all 10 categories for this team for about 6 weeks. I have seen my lead go from two to twelve and back to one. And now my chances are a function of who gets shut down and a couple of specific players.

[viper]

For anyone following this, here is where my cashing leagues are:

My NL only League is all but over. 10 points up with four days left and a downside of just three.
One of my AL only leagues that pays four has a clear winner. I'm tied for second six points back with 4th only one point behind. There has been a change in the 2/3/4 spots every days for a week.

In the NFBC League that prompted this thread, the skies have darkened and heavy rain is coming down - just like in Northern Virginia. I'm now tied at 113. I'm holding a two HR lead and he is trailing by two Wins in other categories. It looks like I will hold onto my strikeout lead mostly because I added Wilson as an SP. WHIP will decide things it seems. Other categories seems locked but nothing is certain. Here is where things stand in WHIP going into Thursday's games:

14 points: 1.2428 with 6 starts left [Kershaw, Duensing, JSanchez, Lilly, Lackey & Lewis]
13 points: 1.2555 with 6 starts left [the other guy with 113 points] (Zito, Zambrano, Hamels, EJackson, FHernandez, Pelfrey]
12 points: 1.2571 with 5 starts left [Liriano, Carmona, Porcello, Buchholtz & Latos]
11 points: 1.2567 with 3 starts left [me] (Ublado, Wilson & Haren]
10 points: 1.2599 with 3 starts left [Carpenter, GioGonzo, Cain]

[viper]

For both of you following this thread.

NFBC $125 - tied for the title at 115. I improved my WHIP in the last week but it was a low scoring week and others past me in spite of my good week. Of course, if my team didn't go 4 for 33 today, I would have won. ($687)

AL Only - 2nd by ½ over 3rd place team (approx $500)

NL only - won league by seven. (approx $1100)

Two other leagues, including the Rookie league - nada

All and all, a good year. Also probably leaving the NFBC after playing since it started.

I hope everyone else had a good year

[mjlewis]

Why are you leaving the NFBC? I was considering doing it for the first time next year...

[viper]

I have been trying to cut back for a number of years. This year I was down to six fantasy teams and I missed drafting in one local league because I was at a friend's son's wedding. Just two years ago I had ten money league teams. I have already told my dynasty league I was leaving as long as they find a replacement [the team is moderately strong finishing 3rd & 4th out of 12 with a number of good young players]. This will just be the final cut back as I will be down to my four local leagues. The time needed to prepare for a single mixed league is more than I want to spend. And I would like to cut back from six leagues. I have always liked the NFBC mostly because there is no trading. I have been unhappy in too many ESPN league because of unbalanced trades. Of course, it is just October 4th and come next February I may have a change of heart. Today my mind is decided and celebrating my 42nd wedding anniversary tomorrow and welcoming my first grandchild [a boy] in early November is taking a front seat in my priorities.