Strasburg Projections

[ksenor]

Looking at Todd's Pitching Projections May 13th update, he projects Strasburg to only win 3 games with 90 Ks in 97 innings with a 4.00+ ERA. What does everyone else think his stats may look like....I read somewhere that June 8th is looking like the call up date based on service time, etc...contract crap.

Thoughts?

[Todd Zola]

I am going to talk with Gary about this as he is the projection guru.

Going into the season, we were working absolutely, completely blind with respect to projecting Strasburg (and Aroldlis Chapman, for that matter) based on translating past performance.

We now have some data, albeit small, to consider.

Maybe Gary has a feel for how helpful it would be to translate their 2010 minor league numbers, with the huge red flag of a tiny sample size of data.

[Guest]

Getting Strasburg right is going to be a real pain.

Here's the mindset.

Currently his converted performance based on our metrics has him somewhere in the low-mid 3's ERA wise. This is with no HR given up. If his HR rate normalizes in the bigs, which it probably will, unless he's Superman, he goes to high 3's.

The wins are low, based on what's likely to happen - one of the challenges with the guys who may or may not get babied is our projection process struggles a bit with figuring out where his decisions are going to end up. Right now in the minors at less than 5 IP per start, he's got decisions in 6 of 7 starts. In the majors I'd expect he'd end up with decisions in 4 of those starts at 5IP per start. So lets say he gets 18-20 starts - I don't see 100 IP out of play, and if there's 10 decisions on a mediocre team with a high 3's ERA, I don't see 5-5, 6-4 to be crazy.

[ksenor]

Ah I get it now. I did not even think about that....so while he may be lights out if because of the Nats pitch count limits on him he can't get to/past the decision point in the game...there is no W to be had anyways.

So in a non-keeper league, he doesn't have much value for this year.

[Guest]

I wouldn't say he has no value.

I would say his range of possible outcomes is wider than other pitchers with whom you're dealing with more information.

He could absolutely come up and pitch like Joba Chamberlain in 2007 and he'd be very valuable. But I am more cautioning against reading TOO much into about 35 IP in the minor leagues as it relates to his major league performance. He could be Doc Gooden circa 1984 - but Doc had pitched 191 innings in A ball at least the year before with a 2.50 ERA. Joba had pitched 80 something innings. And those were completely out of the blue. My only point is that he could be helpful, could hurt with ratios, but I think he'll whiff a bunch of guys, so that helps no matter what. And if he is a legit phenom, you're the one who has him.

[Captain Hook]

I am going to file the minority report with regards to his projections. While I understand why Gary and Todd want to be conservative especially with a new player, I have also watched Strasburg a lot more than most people.....one minor league games this year, most of his AFL outing last year and before that several games when he was pitching for Tony Gwynn at San Diego State.

He is very mature for his age and experience and worked very hard in college and from what I have heard in spring training and the minor leagues this year. His stuff is outstanding and he has three major league pitches and excellent control.

Still the fact that he is the most major league ready pitcher coming out of college since Ben McDonald or Mark Prior doesn't mean immediate success in Washington this summer.
But I would be willing to be he strikes out a batter per inning and has an ERA under 4.00. I am not as sure of the WHIP but it rates to be good. The Wins are purely speculative but consider that the Nationals are already winning more games than most thought they would and next month will add Strasburg and Drew Storen to the pitching staff.

Of course he is a MUST have in NL (or mixed) keeper leagues and in fact is owned in every one of those I play in. He is was also drafted in March in at least five of the eight WCOFB main event leagues and I suspect all the NFBC redraft mixed leagues.

Will he single handedly win a league for you? NO
But he should help considerably IF you need a starting pitcher as opposed to what is available in the free agent pile.

[ksenor]

No value was harsh I meant to say less value than all the hype.

[ravenmad]

I'm going to be that guy: I think he comes up and absolutely dominates. Don't know if there is really a comparable player to try and base him on for comparison. I can't remember a pitcher who could control the corners with 100 MPH heat and drop a devastating sweeping curve anywhere he wants at any time. His change is also well above average and that will improve as he uses it more.

Fearless projection based on nothing other than what I've seen from the tape and watching him in MiLB:

100 IP 115 K 2.5 ERA 1.20 WHIP 7 W

[Todd Zola]

Sometimes I wonder if some industry analysts that like to use the numbers more than the other means of player evaluation say what they think they are supposed to say as opposed to what they would say if they were in the grasp of Wonder Woman's truth lasso.

So I will play devil's advocate because that is what I am "supposed" to do

While Strasburg has been incredibly dominant and has unquestionable stuff, we have not seen him do this at the Major League level. We have not seen him stand up to the scrutiny of the press. We have not seen him be in the locker room with 24 guys older than he, many of whom will not make as much money in their career as he has already made. We have not seen how he reacts to less success than he is used to. We don't know how the tolls of traveling will impact his stamina.

There is the "party line" from me and my fellow number crunching pundits.

But like my signature says, there is no ALWAYS or NEVER.

Most every has a tolerance level or a balance between risk and reward.

I can go into "Professor" mode (blast from the past for the long-time MB readers) and say something like "my style is for every one prospect that hits the ground running, there are 19 that fail. I am more than willing to NEVER pick up a prospect, comfortable in missing out on the one guy knowing I was not hurt with the other 19.

But is that REALLY the case? Or is it that even I have a limit for that 1 guy?

That is, am I not raving about Strasburg to make a point, hoping to somehow validate my analytical style? I mean, if he happens to struggle, I could have T-shirts made up with Strasburg on one side and I TOLD YOU SO on the other. With the Mastersball logo on there as well

Honestly? if asked do I THINK Strasburg will succeed, the answer is yes. It is obviously speculation, just like what everyone else is doing, but yes, from all the intelligence I can gather, my vote is yes.

But from a practical standpoint, I guarantee someone else will be willing to "pay more" than I am to have him on my team.

So I guess what this means is that while I will not have the privilege of enjoying any success he has on my fantasy teams, I am also not going to "make a point" and suggest anyone else that has the risk tolerance to take the chance is "making a mistake".

ASIDE -- I hope no one minds if I decide to post this on my blog

Raven - with respect to your projection, the ERA and WHIP are out of sync for someone with so many strikeouts unless you think he will either have a high hit rate or struggle with control and give up almost no homers. That said, the next HR he gives up as a pro will be the first.

[Guest]

When our updated projections come out in the next couple days, you're going to see us lowering Straz' ERA...I do it more because I think it's necessary based on the recent evidence than doing it based on cold hard projection gut -what I mean by that is right now his ER are almost half his R in the minor leagues - not saying it means his ERA should be much higher, but that's not sustainable meaning either MLB fielders will turn those errors into outs or his ER will rise. Also as Todd mentions he'll likely give up some HR. I still think if you were purely doing this from a projection theory standpoint you're sitting around 3.75. I don't say that from a scouting standpoint or anything else.

[da_big_kid_94]

I saw Todd's blog on this and went back to reference this post due to the character limitations for responding to the blog.

I would venture a guess that those folks who are speculating about Strasburg have spent very little time at the racetrack. To those who would suggest what his numbers may be, or for those who are asking/demanding that others tell them what those numbers may be, I propose the following exercise;

Between now and June 8th, the date das wundekind is supposed to debut, purchase a copy of the Daily Racing Form. Inside there you will find all sorts of valuable information about each thoroughbred horse racing that day - how he ran his last 8-10 last times out, if he worked out in between, how well did he do with those workouts (handily, breezing, were the dogs up, etc), who did he beat, who beat him, how fast was the race, what were the conditions, who rode him, who are his sire and dam ...well, you get the point. Take a few days - study the form diligently- then go pick the winners. Then - go back to the days the races were run and see how you did.

Pro handicappers are pleased as punch if they hit 30% winners - all this information is available to him and if he hits 3 out of 10, he's ecstatic. He can run it through a myriad of projection systems and he's hoping for 30%. and he's got a lot more information about those horses than anybody has about Strasburg right now. I read Todd's blog twice - I get the feeling he wishes this would just hurry up and be over with - can't say I blame him if he does - or Gary, J.P., Lawr, Perry, Rob, Jesse, Chris, et al for that matter. I commend these guys for making an effort in an impossible situation - me, personally? I'd be saying "What the hell you asking ME for?? Like I would KNOW?"

Lawr posted in another thread about how he once talked to a few players about what was their biggest adjustments to the majors - and most all answered it was the off field stuff and pressures that were the most daunting - the on field stuff didn't take too much adjusting. But many people don't seem to consider that - Strasburg isn't going to generate any stats in a vacuum - he's going to have to go through this decompression chamber too. How he handles it will go a long way towards how his career goes - but right now, June 8 in Washington is sold out. The last time I can recall this happening in a situation like this goes back to 1973 and David Clyde - and some of us remember how his career went. And there weren't nearly enough media outllets or media forms then as there are now.

Bottom line - many people seem to be viewing him as some sort of savior for their teams. If you think Strasburg is the key to your season, may I suggest your squad has bigger problems than Strasburg alone can solve. I own him - and I'll use him - but he's not going to get me a championship on his performance alone. Whether he gets 3 wins or 12 wins - he'll help - but he's not getting you first across the line without you already being in position to get there without him.

[Skin Blues]

You could use that horse racing analogy for guys like Halladay and Pujols, too. I'd say we have a pretty good idea of how those two will perform in 2010 and 2011. Four months of a baseball season isn't akin to a two minute horse race with non-human participants determining the outcome. I think it's fair to say there's a better than 30% chance that Strasburg would help any fantasy team this season.

[da_big_kid_94]

You could use that horse racing analogy for guys like Halladay and Pujols, too. I'd say we have a pretty good idea of how those two will perform in 2010 and 2011. Four months of a baseball season isn't akin to a two minute horse race with non-human participants determining the outcome. I think it's fair to say there's a better than 30% chance that Strasburg would help any fantasy team this season.

To a point - but you have a pedigree for Halladay and Pujols that you can track along with documented past performances ...there's no such information or performance track available on Strasburg. They are akin because it's the rules of the sport they participate in - not the fault of the participants. In a typical ball game, how long is the time frame we care about for any one of our offensive players - 10 minutes for 4-5 ABs and a little base running (for some)? If you want to take the analogy a bit further - take that same racing form and find a race that is limited to first time starters -THEN try and pick the winner. Good luck. Same with Strasburg right now. There's nothing to go on except the idea that since he hasn't failed at any level yet, he can't fail now. He apparently has talent - now does he have everything that he needs to go along with it.

[ravenmad]

I know I'm going out on a limb here, and it was just the Pirates, but Strasburg is the Truth.

Hope you all got a chance to see history in the making today. The HR he gave up was on his worst pitch, the circle change. His fastball and curve are downright unhittable.

[Guest]

He was awesome. The K's are obviously a sign he belongs, and the updated projection won't be for him to be 1968 Bob Gibson but it will only improve his outlook.

[da_big_kid_94]

For the first time in eons, I cleared my schedule to make room for the dedicated watching of a baseball game and I certainly was not disappointed. The only time I can recall being this excited about watching a particular pitcher was when Bird was performing on the mound. Bird's main attraction was his antics, although he produced results - Strasburg's main attraction is his stuff ... which seemed incredible on TV - can't imagine what it looked like in person (although Bob Kohm on RotoJunkie was there last night and his painted a vivid picture).

Interesting note brought up during last night's telecast- Umps who get plate jobs for this young man are going to have to be on their toes. Unlikely they've ever seen this before from just one guy.

[Skin Blues]

I'm not a talent scout by any means, but I've never seen a fastball-curveball combo like that outside of a video game. And only 94 pitches needed to get those 14 Ks... my oh my, I instantly regret not taking a chance on him in any of my leagues. It's gonna be fun to watch him.

[Todd Zola]

I was watching Wakefield on one screen and Strasburg on another and was getting a kick out of the contrast, then I realized there was a bunch of similarities between the two.

Both have so much movement that throwing strikes may sometimes be an issue.

Both are likely going to give you one pitch per at bat you can hit so you better not miss it.

The most effective hitter versus both may be the contact type that just tries to put the bat on the ball.

Specifically with respect to Strasburg, I was watching with the sound down as I watch most games nowadays.

What impressed me the most was early on, he went to a 3 ball count on a few hitters but hung in there and got a couple of at-em balls.

I was also impressed with how it was just business as usual after giving up the HR.

And finally, I firmly believe every starting pitcher is actually two guys -- the wind up guy and the stretch guy. The inning that Walker led off with a hit, Strasburg had to go from the stretch for the rest of the inning and did not seem to lose any effectiveness.

With respect to fantasy, I still say that the correct decision was not taking the chance. While someone may be kicking themselves for passing on him, they are forgetting about the other 99 times they did the same thing to their benefit.

And I promise you, there will be a whole lot more Yahoo showers for teams that don't own Strasburg than teams that do the next few years, with the exception of those that use a minor league system and have him cheap.

[viper]

as a Nats fan, it sure was fun watching it. As a fantasy player, the fact that he will be limited to around 100 IP this year could be a bummer for his owners. That early September shut down will be tough. I wonder how close next Sunday's game in Cleveland is to a sellout.

[Skin Blues]

The Nats visit Detroit this summer... it's only a 3 hour drive from Toronto, I might have to make the trip if he's scheduled to pitch.

[Todd Zola]

It was announced that Strasburg would go every 5 DAYS, not games through the All Star break so get out your slide rule and set in to 5

Of course Mother Nature may intercede, but the point is they will not give him an extra day of rest due to an off day.

[da_big_kid_94]

I myself am hoping for a flood in D.C. tomorrow (weekly transaction league, don'tcha know?)