Updated Projections?

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jkadagio · #1 Post by **jkadagio** » May 3rd, 2010, 2:03 pm

Are the pitching/batting projections going to be updated throughout the year in the platinum content section? The latest I see are dated 4/8. If I recall correctly they were updated periodically last year, no?

#2 Post by **Todd Zola** » May 3rd, 2010, 2:40 pm

The original plan was not to update them and this is discussed elsewhere.

BUT...

We have been having a ton of behind the scenes discussions and the return of in-season projections is imminent.

We should have a formal announcement soon regarding this and some other subscriber additions.

We could roll out the projections as early as this Thursday or Friday and will update them every two weeks thereafter.

jkadagio · #3 Post by **jkadagio** » May 3rd, 2010, 2:42 pm

Sounds good. Thanks!

brooklyn49 · #4 Post by **brooklyn49** » May 7th, 2010, 10:39 am

Still on schedule to plan?

Guest · #5 Post by **Guest** » May 7th, 2010, 1:29 pm

Probably a day or two behind, my fault entirely which I apologize for. You'll be looking at them worst case Monday, best case Sat/Sun.

Tampa Bob · #6 Post by **Tampa Bob** » May 8th, 2010, 5:39 pm

Can't wait to see what you say about Nick Johnson, whom I hate.

#7 Post by **Todd Zola** » May 8th, 2010, 6:01 pm

Keep in mind with Johnson is DL time was already factored in. So there may not be a considerable adjustment with playing time.

Guest · #8 Post by **Guest** » May 10th, 2010, 9:28 pm

Guys - I wish I wasn't typing this but don't wait up tonight on them. I am confident they'll arrive tomorrow, but delays on my end killed this. Going forward it won't be an issue but this one is on me and I apologize. I appreciate your patience.

brooklyn49 · #9 Post by **brooklyn49** » May 13th, 2010, 12:57 pm

#10 Post by **Todd Zola** » May 13th, 2010, 2:04 pm

We'll have the update later today. It will be based on stats from about a week ago, but we'll catch up with the next one sooner than 2 weeks so we'll be on schedule soon.

brooklyn49 · #11 Post by **brooklyn49** » May 14th, 2010, 10:57 am

thank you

ksenor · #12 Post by **ksenor** » May 14th, 2010, 2:14 pm

Thanks for the updates!

brooklyn49 · #13 Post by **brooklyn49** » May 27th, 2010, 8:53 pm

Will we be able to play with new projections over the 3 day Memorial Day weekend?

#14 Post by **Todd Zola** » May 27th, 2010, 9:10 pm

Yes -- doing the hitting now, pitching in the morning. aiming to post mid to late afternoon.

brooklyn49 · #15 Post by **brooklyn49** » May 29th, 2010, 12:57 pm

Upside Hitting Projections for Garrett Jones surprised me a little as did that for Maicer Izturis. Conversely, the projected drop for Ordonez is disappointing. But what really raised an eyebrow is the projection for Nolan Reimold (I recall last year's assessment of Delmon Young). Why the optimistic forecast for Reimold?

Likewise, on the pitching side, the projections for Erik Bedard seem surprisingly promising.

#16 Post by **Todd Zola** » May 29th, 2010, 3:17 pm

The projections are nothing more than a weighted average of the skills we expected and the skills they are presently showing, with the playing time as a multiplier.

Early in the season, we weight the historical expectation more. As the season wears on, we give more credence to current performance.

That is, if we expected 30 HR and the player has has hit 7, we do not project 23.

There is a skill rate that goes with the expectation of 30 (let's call it X) and another skill level displayed by hitting seven so far (call it Y)

a is the weight of the historical
b is the weight of the year to date

so

aX + bY = weighted average of the skill

We then multiply by expected playing time to get rest of year projection.

Someone like Bedard, the skills are the same we expected in March, just a change in innings.

I do the NL playing time, Gary does the AL. Skills we both can discuss because the model generates those.

I cam address specific questions about NL playing time. I will ask Gary to comment on any AL situation that may be in question.

Make sense?

Guest · #17 Post by **Guest** » May 31st, 2010, 2:40 pm

Here's my thought process take it or leave it...

I feel like Reimold should be up soon and almost playing every day. This could be completely wrong of course, but they're playing for nothing, and I think he'd play very well if he got the chance. Frankly, I really thought about this one because right now I'm projecting him at coming up from the minors in the next 2-4 weeks and then playing a lot. This is one of those areas of projection theory I don't love, because in essence to make the projection more palatable in essence I have to cut his playing time significantly, which I didn't really want to do either. I can completely understand the skepticism and understand those who'd critique the thought process, but I can't imagine Patterson and Atkins stop them from letting this kid play. The skills, as Todd says, represent 4 years of performance, which is all very, very good. And this is what keeps sticking in my head - Reimold was a bad BABIP guy, nothing else going on in Baltimore this year - he was a 25 HR guy two years in a row, and he's sitting for Garrett Atkins and Corey Patterson on a 70 win team. Yes, I might be completely full of it here, but....

Macier's output projection isn't anything too out of the line for me - maybe the $$ sticks out -but Wood can't hit, and that's all Izturis' time at this point plus supersub everywhere else. He's going to get PA.

Ordonez - I don't think the HR rate sticks, nothing else about the projection seems too out of line to me.

Bedard, the IP might be rosy, I'd read some positive things but maybe it's too optimistic. I still think 2-2.5 months of starting isn't out of the picture and he's always been effective when he actually pitches...

churchm · #18 Post by **churchm** » June 3rd, 2010, 6:55 am

Are the values rest of way values? Or simply end of season? I would think rest of way projections would be helpful.

#19 Post by **Todd Zola** » June 3rd, 2010, 8:55 am

The projections are how we feel the player will do for the remainder of the season and the values are based off of those rest-of-year projections. They do not directly incorporate what has been produced to this point.

It may be confusing because we still use $260 as the team salary and do not prorate it for the portion of the season that has elapsed.

Skin Blues · #20 Post by **Skin Blues** » June 4th, 2010, 3:40 am

Just thought I'd point out that Fred Lewis is still listed on the Giants. I'm not sure if the playing time allocation for the Jays and Giants was affected by this. Also, Mike Stanton isn't included, which will surely have an affect on the expected playing time of some combination of Maybin/Coghlan/Ross since his call-up is a foregone conclusion. What is the process on speculative call-ups like him? Are adjustments made once they're actually called up? I realize it's hard to know if a prospect will get significant time in the majors and some teams are reluctant to being them up until September. I bring it up because Carlos Santana is already included in the projections and Cleveland management has said he still needs time in the minors to work on his defense, although it makes sense that he would be up with the Indians sooner rather than later.

And this might not be the place for this, but do you have an idea of Dan Hudson's chances at being called up and how well you think he might do? His last start wasn't too impressive and my false hope is dwindling. I only need him to be better than one of Hochevar, Bannister or Guthrie (I target bad SPs on horrible teams, apparently) to make him worth my while, but even that much isn't possible if he isn't called up.

Guest · #21 Post by **Guest** » June 4th, 2010, 6:19 am

I'd say our process on minor leaguers is that if there's a pretty demonstrated plan for what will happen with a player, we will reflect it, but we don't assume too much as it relates to callups. Santana frankly I thought would be called up by now, so we'll start tweaking the forecast down if word doesn't change soon.

Lewis is just an admin issue that I apologize for - his team error doesn't affect things very much.

For those interested in Stanton I would believe the rumor mill - he is likely up in the next 10 days. His AVG will be mediocre but the power is oh so legit.

#22 Post by **Todd Zola** » June 4th, 2010, 9:01 am

ACKKK!!!!!

Here's the deal with Fred Lewis. In master the projection file, he is indeed properly included with the Blue Jays so their at bats and the Giants at bats are accurately accounted for as a team total.

However, the format of the sheet we use to project and the format of the sheet we use in the posted projections are different. I use some excel functions including vlookup to convert one into the other. The administrative error is that I did not change the team and league designation of Lewis in the master file that lists the team and league designation. We use a player ID number on the master projection file and not the last name, first name.

Bottom line is I have updated the info for Lewis and will scrub it for everyone else that has switched teams.

With Taylor, they have been talking about his promotion since the end of April so I should have included it with a best guess for the playing time. Who loses time is the real question as either Ross or Uggla could be traded along with Coghlan/Maybin/Sanchez as Cantu could in theory go to 1B with Coghlan going to 2B (Uggla to 3B) or 3B.

My missing him is really doubly bad because every update I look to see how Logan Morrison is doing for selfish reasons as I own Gaby Sanchez in Tout Wars.

Tampa Bob · #23 Post by **Tampa Bob** » June 4th, 2010, 3:44 pm

Todd, I apologize if I missed the note but I can't find Jack Cust on the spreadsheet either. I think he's queued up for one of his microbursts.

Guest · #24 Post by **Guest** » June 4th, 2010, 10:08 pm

Cust will be in the next update. Good news is he's pretty consistent so the only issue is his PT.

viper · #25 Post by **viper** » June 5th, 2010, 3:00 pm

True story. Last week I was thinking about my recent acquisition Cust and noticed that Lewis was available. I need power more but it was possible that a better average hitter could be an improvement. I went to the latest projections and saw that BOTH were missing. Sort of a shoulder shrugging moment. I did not put in a bid for Lewis. I also had a pitching decision whether to keep a basically inept Masterson, make a bid on Tilman or grab a better ERA/WHIP middle reliever. I decided to give Masterson another week or two. Both Tilman and Lewis were take but both went for more than I would have bid so my decision was irrelevant.

Guest · #26 Post by **Guest** » June 5th, 2010, 3:47 pm

Sorry if it screwed you up. We'll do our best to make sure it's as good as possible going forward.

viper · #27 Post by **viper** » June 5th, 2010, 8:13 pm

no site ever screws me up. I am fully capable of doing it myself and don't need any help.

jkadagio · #28 Post by **jkadagio** » June 30th, 2010, 9:16 am

Any chance we get a set of updates by the weekend?

#29 Post by **Todd Zola** » June 30th, 2010, 9:51 am

I'd say the chances are quite good, hope to have a time estimate later today.

Guest · #30 Post by **Guest** » June 30th, 2010, 9:15 pm

Yes, you'll have updates by the weekend.

#31 Post by **Todd Zola** » July 1st, 2010, 11:23 pm

POSTED

brooklyn49 · #32 Post by **brooklyn49** » August 5th, 2010, 5:00 pm

As my DL grows, I look forward to something soon. Maybe this week?

#33 Post by **Todd Zola** » August 5th, 2010, 7:52 pm

The update is in process and should be complete by the weekend.

brooklyn49 · #34 Post by **brooklyn49** » August 8th, 2010, 8:24 pm

Ready whenever you are

Guest · #35 Post by **Guest** » August 8th, 2010, 8:38 pm

The problem is on my end, not Todd's. I'd estimate a posting either tomorrow night or Tuesday. I apologize for the inconvenience.

#36 Post by **Todd Zola** » August 9th, 2010, 8:09 pm

Hitting posted, pitching should follow within 24 hours.

Sorry for the delay.

#37 Post by **Todd Zola** » August 10th, 2010, 5:08 pm

pitching up

brooklyn49 · #38 Post by **brooklyn49** » August 27th, 2010, 4:56 pm

Gents - with waiver deadlines and call ups in the near future, what is the schedule for posting projection? My DL list continues to grow and I am forced to look for players outside my usual range for consideration. I am following the shopping cart and other posts, but would appreciate a start of September set of projections.

brooklyn49 · #39 Post by **brooklyn49** » September 3rd, 2010, 12:51 pm

Maybe over the Labor Day weekend; or are we done for the year?

da_big_kid_94 · September 23rd, 2010, 6:37 am

Will there be a season ending run of CRVC that provides season total dollar values earned in the same formats as the projections (4x4, 5x5, etc.)?

#41 Post by **Todd Zola** » September 23rd, 2010, 7:39 am

Yes, I will do this but I will not have the monthly breakdowns like I have done in the past. I will likely post the link in Organized Chaos

da_big_kid_94 · September 23rd, 2010, 10:46 am

Perfect - season totals are all I'm looking for. Thanks, Todd.

#43 Post by **Todd Zola** » October 7th, 2010, 12:17 pm

da_big_kid_94 wrote:Perfect - season totals are all I'm looking for. Thanks, Todd.

These will go up later.

Single leagues will be in 2 forms -- those that are allowed to keep players that cross leagues and those that play in the old-fashioned SOL format.

brooklyn49 · #44 Post by **brooklyn49** » October 7th, 2010, 8:21 pm

How difficult would it be to include a tab with the final raw stats?

#45 Post by **Todd Zola** » October 7th, 2010, 8:55 pm

I get them from www.dougstats.com.

I am uncomfortable simply re-posting them directly, but you can get them from there.

In the past, we have received stats from sources that agreed to allow us to re-post.

brooklyn49 · #46 Post by **brooklyn49** » August 27th, 2011, 10:42 am

Are the rest-of-year projection done for 2011?

Note: It was last year on this date that I asked the same question and, while I never did see an answer, the fact there were no more updates sort of made it obvious. But I thought I would ask again out of habit.

#47 Post by **Todd Zola** » August 27th, 2011, 11:03 am

I'll get an update posted next Thurs/Fri. After that, it is more a matter of tracking September call-ups and playing time which we will do on the front page via columns and the Mastersblog.

This won't sit well with the baseball diehards, but I have been tied up adapting our draft software to football and we hope to have an announcement by the end of the weekend.

#48 Post by **Todd Zola** » September 2nd, 2011, 2:41 pm

ETA for this is now on Tuesday, a family situation has delayed it, sorry.