Determining Inflation

[Tig]

I've been playing in auction leagues for a few years, but have never really looked at inflation in my keeper leagues. I've had a decent amount of success in the past, but apparently my luck is either running out or my fellow owners are getting better, so I have to get back on top of things.

I looked back, but didnt find any posts, so how exactly do you figure out inflation?

I am in a 13 team AL only league that includes the Brewers and Phillies. We have a $270 auction cap and are allowed 3-7 keepers. We do not draft a reserve squad, and players must be on the 25 man roster (or the MLB DL) to nominate/bid on. Therefore, we will be nominating 312 of the 400 possible players in the pool. this year, we had 67 players kept.

[da_big_kid_94]

I saved this from an article John Mosey wrote back in 2001

So here is the quick and dirty way to figure auction inflation.

First, add up all the keepers values. Go on, every single player kept. What do you think they are worth? Get your value from wherever you like, as long as it is the same scale you are using everywhere else. (hint, 1-900-GET-ROTO).

In this fake little league in my mind only 6 players were kept. Yes, six players for the entire league, mixed, 4x4. I’m trying to keep this simple. Umm, let’s see. Brian Giles at $10, Jeff Cirillo at $16, Todd Walker at $18, Ruben Mateo at $3, Jermaine Dye at $1 and Brian Daubach at $2.

Ok, I’ve got the values they are going to earn at: Giles $30, Cirillo $27, Walker $15, Mateo $12, Dye $10 and Daubach $8. That’s $102 in value.

Next step, add up what they are being kept at. Doing the math in my head, $50. Still with me, good.

So we have 12 teams $260 per team, 168 hitters, 67 percent hitters split. That’s $2090 to be spent on hitters. As a side note, some people figure inflation for an entire league. I figure two of them, since the inflation on hitters shouldn’t affect the inflation on pitchers if you keep your split straight. Two different sets of points, stats, inflations. Feel free to do it your way if you think differently though.

Moving on, next we take the talent-value and subtract it from the total hitters pool of available money. $2090 – $102 = $1988. Now do the same for kept-value. $2090- $50 = $2040. So now we have two values, the available amount of talent that can be drafted, $1988, and the amount of money available to spend, $2040.

Into the home stretch. Divide the money available into the talent available. $2040/$1988 = 1.03. There you have it. In this example the inflation rate is 3 percent. Now, if it’s that low, I wouldn’t even go farther. There are so many other factors that can change things by a lousy 3 percent the rounding errors on your dollar values become more of a mess than a help.

But assuming that instead of six players saving you 52 dollars it’s 4 players a team, or 48 players saving you or, say, $300. You now have 14% inflation.

Ok, you got me, I took the long way - you could have saved a step and just divided the price of the savings into the hitters money pool. But the long way let me show why things worked that way.

[da_big_kid_94]

Now in one of the articles he published on SI this year, Todd makes what I consider to be a critical point - these are guideline numbers only - because the first player that gets bought means these numbers no longer hold true - they've now been changed (this may be too dramatic - it may actually hold up for a round or two depending on who was thrown out when and who bought them at what price). The best thing you can say is that these prices will represent what that player should go for PROVIDED he's the first name thrown out to be auctioned.

[Todd Zola]

Here is the take of one of those so-called experts on the topic of inflation

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/f ... index.html

[Tig]

thanks guys.

So if i have this right, it makes no difference how many hitters are needed to be drafted? It's simply about the $$ available?

Inflation for the league is the same even with 41 hitters of the 182 needed being kept as it would be if 67 of the 182 needed were kept?

In my league, breaking it down for hitters and pitchers:

Hitters Proj "Value" $790
Hitters "Kept" Cost $618

using 68/32 split on $270 = $183.60 x 13 teams = $2392

2392-790=1602
2392-618=1774

1774/1602=1.107

So the inflation is 11% for hitters


Interestingly, the inflation for pitchers appears to be $0. As the projected value is $327 and the kept value is $328.

[Tig]

now, to get the actual split that should be used, would i just need to add up all the costs for each teams hitters and each teams pitchers, then divide by the $270?