All RP strategy - NFBC Satellites

[AllstonRockCity]

I'm not going to do this, but my questions are:

What can one do if they notice another team in their Sat league going all RP?

Is there any advantage to knowing this?

What would/could one do to thwart such a strategy?

Are there any tactical advantages it would present for my own draft?

Or is this just a waste of time because by the time you would know someone was doing this its already about the 10th round and its too late to change horses mid-stream?

Thanks for your thoughts.

[rotodog]

To be honest, I say let it happen and dont worry...

I wouldnt worry about thwarting the strategy......Just pay attention to your team...

If you do notice it and this guy picks near you in the order, the only thing that might be of use is to realize that if there are few closers still on the board and you want one at that point, He may grab them right afterwards...

If for some reason you both end up towards the wheel in the draft, then it might come into play with the mid tier starters..

Say you are picking 14th and he is 15th... You want one Bat and one pitcher with your next two picks... if you know he is employing an all RP staff, then you take the BAT first because you know he will not be taking your SP with either of his 2 picks.....He grabs 2, then you take the SP after the turn...

Towards the end game, if you really want a future saves Sniffing elite bullpen arm badly, you might have to grab him before him though...

But I think in all probablity, It will be a rare case that all things align and it is of much use...

[Todd Zola]

I don't worry about it all in terms of thwarting him. The only 'change' is realizing the pool of speculative closers will be thin so I plan on getting 2 35-save guys in the draft even if it means taking "safer" guys that I may have originally intended.

I never had time to do my review of the strategy, but the best way to do it is taking closers and all offense, then taking the LOOGY types later and not even taking the Sherrill/League/Adams/Gregerson/Bard/Thornton/Madson types that many do.

I may with a capital MAYBE handcuff my closer if the MR is still available and he is useful as a non-closer. For instance, if I have Papelbon, I may take Bard in the mid to high teens. Or if I have Broxton, I may take Sherrill in the high teens.

You do have to monitor to see if this alters the plans of any others in the draft and react accordingly, but you do this anyway.

[viper]

You should not try to do anything overly different. Pretty much stick with your original draft plan.

I like to see if any team is doing all closers or no closers. Normally, two closers for every team put anything from a '15' to a '1' in play depending on the skills of the closers and injuries. If one team does an all RP, they likely will try and get 3-4 closers, more probably 4 to ensure the 15 in saves. If four, this means two teams will have one closer. Teams with two closers will be competing for a '14' through '3'. If one team go a no-closer route, two teams will have 3 and those with two closers will be vying for a '13' through '2'.

Bottom line one category point is all that effects your team. The MR strategy will mean better SPs for all other teams so don't get giddy over your staff.

FAAB comes into play. The MR team will have $1000 for hitters. He will likely spend very little on pitchers. This could play out a number of ways but it is good to realize.

It is sad to say but any hitting failure is likely to cause this owner to give up the ghost.

[AllstonRockCity]

Thanks guys for the thoughtful and insightful comments.

I didn't plan on letting what another team did alter my own strategy, but I wanted to be sure I wasn't missing something.

[Hambowen]

Just as a quick note. I would not think you would even know by the 10th round. it would be even later then that before you knew for sure.

If somehow you could figure it out early then I agree with Todd that I would probably want 2 safe closers.

[deansdaddy]

Well - it wouldn't be a real All-RP thread if I didn't respond -so here goes.

I agree don't change your overall plan going in. Just draft your team as you normally would. The only thing that might influence your thinking would be if you find yourself drafting right before or after the All-RP drafter in the order. Then you may want to alter your plan a bit - but I'll touch on that in a minute.

I will agree/disagree with Ham slightly in being able to identify the potential All-RP team. While you will not know for sure til rd 10 - the signs come sooner than that. The guys who run this strategy in the NFBC have it down to a science to a certain degree. They often try to plant themselves close to the wheels if not right on them. #15 seems to be a favored spot to draft from. The first clue is this- the guy going All-RP will NOT choose a SP early. There was some debate about running an All-RP team with a ace - but I just haven't seen it done in any NFBC league I've played in. The guy going All-RP WILL grab one of the Top closers on the board. Often times they are the first or second guy to grab one. Think Broxton, Paps, Mariano and maybe even Soria (Nathan used to be in this group). Usually this pick happens in RD 5. This will almost always be followed up with another closer out of the next tier of closers - think Bell, Street, Bailey, Cordero, KRod and Wagner. This will happen likely in the next turn of picks (Rd 7/8). If you see a guy with two closers by round seven - near one of the wheels - that is a good sign that player might be going All-RP. Take our Rookie league draft as an example - how many owners chose a closer with their first pick? That's right - ZERO. So if you see a guy grab a closer in RD 4-6 before he has drafted a SP - be suspicious.

If they have 2 closers by RD 6-8 they are likely going the All-RP route. I'll agree with Ham that you will be sure by RD 10 because the good All-RP guy will often try to grab a THIRD closer from the Top of the last tier of closers - think Qualls, Jenks or Soriano- and they will usually try to accomplish this by RD 10-11. After they get those three closers it has been my experience that they will not spend another pick on pitching of any kind til maybe Round 20. They will fill out the rest of their lineup with the best bats available - targeting speed and high BA. They will gladly pick off any remaining closer candidates that others let slip to them. Once those late picks arrive they will fill out their staff with MR - M Wuertz, G Sherrill, Mike Adams, Matt Thorton, T Saito, Jim Johnson, D Wheeler, Jason Motte and Kevin Jepsen fit the bit. Alfredo Aceves and Kris Medlen are favorites this year as they will start in the pen - but have a chance to start. Even in the pen they have a chance to pick up some W's. Again it has been my experience that they will not grab a SP early - often they will grab one or two late and hope that they can get a guy who won't hurt the ERA or WHIP. They are not looking for W's or K's out of their SP - they just need a guy who will help them get to their 700IP limit - that's why a guy like Aceves is perfect.

So - if you think you've got an All-RP near you - and the draft progresses - you can keep in mind that those middle rounds will not see that team take much if any pitching. So again if you are drafting near them and debating taking a hitter or pitcher - you might tab the bat before the arm - because the arm will make it back to you. As for saves - I agree you still want to get yourself the best pair of closers that you can. One thing you could do late in a draft is to pick off the set-up guy(s) of the All-RP team's closers. Usually their third closer has some issues - I drafted against a guy this year who drafted Rivera in the 5th, Bell in the 7th and Ryan Franklin in the 10th. No other P's til rd 23 when he took 6 MR's and 1 SP - Aaron Cook. I was pick 13 he was pick 15 - he grabbed Aceves by the way in rd 26 - in rd 27 I saw Jason Motte sitting there and grabbed him. Sure enough the guy drafted Kyle McClellan - so he would have grabbed Motte - and probably should have. If Franklin loses the job - Motte likely gets it. It was late in the draft - and it didn't hurt my team - but if Franklin goes down - it will hurt his by not having Motte.

But in closing I will say - don't worry about it - don't let it dictate your draft - but if you identify it - use it. If you are in an online draft - you can just "out" the guy to the others drafters and let THEM start to worry about it while you just go about your business. That's what I usually do. Good Luck - let us know how it goes and if it happens.

[AllstonRockCity]

ryan - will do

Thanks all. Its 1 week from tonight.

Off to move everything out of the swamp that used to be my finished basement.

[deansdaddy]

Well - here is the ultimate All-RP data that I can give you - they have just posted the entire draft results from the NFBC's $10,000 entry Diamond League and sure enough one of the entrants pulled out the All-RP strategy.

He picked out of the 13th spot.

1- Joe Mauer
2- Matt Holliday
3- Justin Mourneau
4- Derek Jeter
5- Aaron Hill
6- Chone Figgins
7- Juan Pierre
8- Brian Wilson
9- Mike Napoli
10- Francisco Cordero
11- Adrien Beltre
12- Alicedes Escobar
13- Kelly Johnson
14- Nick Swisher
15- Brad Lidge
16- Josh Willingham
17- JD Drew
18- Kerry Wood
19- Derek Lowe
20 - Brandon Lyon
21- Mark Teahen
22- Kevin Gregg
23-Jack Cust
24- Scott Downs
25- Rick Ankiel
26- Johnny Gomes
27- Jose Mijares
28- Dave Bush
29- Latroy Hawkins
30- Sergio Romo

He stuck pretty close to the script - He actually had a chance to start the closer run at 5/6 and passed on the opportunity - so he had to settle for Wilson at 8 - but he did as expected and came back quickly with another closer in 10. Passing on the elite meant he had to grab multiple mediocre #3 options in Lidge/Wood/Lyon and then he followed the idea of picking off other potential saves guys in Gregg/Downs/Mijares - He actually drafted two sp's and Lowe and Bush kind of fit the bill for an All-RP team SP.

[rotodog]

Well - here is the ultimate All-RP data that I can give you - they have just posted the entire draft results from the NFBC's $10,000 entry Diamond League and sure enough one of the entrants pulled out the All-RP strategy.

He picked out of the 13th spot.

1- Joe Mauer
2- Matt Holliday
3- Justin Mourneau
4- Derek Jeter
5- Aaron Hill
6- Chone Figgins
7- Juan Pierre
8- Brian Wilson
9- Mike Napoli
10- Francisco Cordero
11- Adrien Beltre
12- Alicedes Escobar
13- Kelly Johnson
14- Nick Swisher
15- Brad Lidge
16- Josh Willingham
17- JD Drew
18- Kerry Wood
19- Derek Lowe
20 - Brandon Lyon
21- Mark Teahen
22- Kevin Gregg
23-Jack Cust
24- Scott Downs
25- Rick Ankiel
26- Johnny Gomes
27- Jose Mijares
28- Dave Bush
29- Latroy Hawkins
30- Sergio Romo

He stuck pretty close to the script - He actually had a chance to start the closer run at 5/6 and passed on the opportunity - so he had to settle for Wilson at 8 - but he did as expected and came back quickly with another closer in 10. Passing on the elite meant he had to grab multiple mediocre #3 options in Lidge/Wood/Lyon and then he followed the idea of picking off other potential saves guys in Gregg/Downs/Mijares - He actually drafted two sp's and Lowe and Bush kind of fit the bill for an All-RP team SP.

I hope everyone thanked him for his donation ! I thought the idea of not taking any Sps was to assemble a stacked offense....the sniff test doesnt tell me this is stacked....Some selections seem odd to me....I didnt study the offense at all in depth, but it just doesnt stick out to me as stacked!..I will review it again though...

[viper]

The other part of that strategy is to win ERA & WHIP. That sniff is foul air too.

[rotodog]

1- Joe Mauer
2- Matt Holliday
3- Justin Mourneau
4- Derek Jeter
5- Aaron Hill
6- Chone Figgins
7- Juan Pierre
8- Brian Wilson
9- Mike Napoli
10- Francisco Cordero
11- Adrien Beltre
12- Alicedes Escobar
13- Kelly Johnson
14- Nick Swisher
15- Brad Lidge
16- Josh Willingham
17- JD Drew
18- Kerry Wood
19- Derek Lowe
20 - Brandon Lyon
21- Mark Teahen
22- Kevin Gregg
23-Jack Cust
24- Scott Downs
25- Rick Ankiel
26- Johnny Gomes
27- Jose Mijares
28- Dave Bush
29- Latroy Hawkins
30- Sergio Romo

I have been looking at this team and something bugs me....If we look further into it, I think the idea is to have some Stud closers with Stud ratios and then sprinkle in a couple lower tier closers and Stud MR...

Problem is that he has failed to do this. For this to work, you need to OWN the saves, ERA and Whip category. He will be hopelessly faabing for some innings from pitchers with good enough ratios all season. His closers and even his MR isnt Studly by any means and they dont carry the ratios needed to win those 3 categories..

Now add in the fact that he needs to run away with the offense points and I dont see it....It really seems like a complete waste of a team..

he was doing OK until the 6th rd...

With Jter in the 4th and Aaron hill in the 5th, he had a nice SS/2b base..

But then he grabs Chone figgins.....I dont understand that move... at this point you need to assume he will play him at 3b....Which we already know how I feel about that...

But then he grabs another slappy puch and judy hitter in the 7th..Juan pierre...Ok, he will run, but.....

in the 11th he then takes Adrien Beltre...Not a problem in the 11th, but what was Chone for? maybe move him to MI in a week to go with Jeter and Hill? OK.....I can see it a little...

But then he goes and take Alicedes Escobar next....What do we need another SS/MI for? What a freaking waste!

OK, Chone back to 3b now......

But his very next pick, he takes ONE MORE 2b/MI type....to do what? Now in 13 rounds he has drafted Jeter/Hill and Chone as MI players.....He blocks Chone at 3b with beltre, and then goes and gets 2 more light hitting 2b/SS types?

He now has 5 MI and a 3b....Dumb... So now later he gets one more 3b in Mark teahen...Ok , mark can play OF too...

But that is one craphouse OF and he wasted picks in the middle by grabbing a crap load of MI/3b players....Again, I am missing something here...

Outfield of
holliday
pierre
willingham
jd drew
mark teahen
Cust
ankiel

is just weak...

The team looks like it may take the Avg/Sb points, but the HR and the other offensive rate stats will come way short...

So he may win saves, avg and Sbs... But is basically punting K's and Wins... The pitching ratios dont look to be a deadlock to carry and the offensive rate stats will come short....

I think the guy may have had a plan, but executed it very poorly and essentially made a donation to the rest of league in his name...

Did I miss something?

[50 Desert Eagles]

After round 6, it seems he just got drunk and turned on Autopick or something. I see some real bad Rp's....If you want to gamble, atleast take some decent risks.....Lidge, Wood, Lyon...I have a bad taste in my mouth thinking of seeing them on the same roster....

[AllstonRockCity]

In all honesty, I would be THRILLED if someone did this in my Satellite tomorrow night.

[deansdaddy]

Aha - this will probably help explain why this guys team doesn't look soooo dominant as an All-RP team. I just checked and there were TWO All_rp teams in this draft.

Here is the second squad:

1- A Pujols
2- Sandoval
3- BJ Upton
4- C Lee
5- T Hunter
6- M Young
7- C Quentin
8- R Weeks
9- C Marmol
10- P Konerko
11-B Fuentes
12- AJ Peirz
13- H Street
14- J Peralta
15- M Capps
16- M Byrd
17- C Young
18- O Cabrera
19- J Buck
20 - F Morales
21- F Lopez
22- M Ellis
23 - Andy Laroche
24- Joe Saunders
25- F Rodney
26- J Garland
27- W Venable
28- G Sherrill
29 - J SMoak
30 - T Saito

[viper]

Here is a killer. If someone just drafted two closers, he could easily get a 10 or 11 in saves. This will be one of those leagues target drafting the counting categories may fall totally apart. A quick glance makes me think that Steals and HRs may be concentrated so much so that lesser totals can score well. Same for saves. The downside is that Wins, Ks and ratios may be higher than you target. It was essentially a 13-team league for starters.

How much was the entry for this league? Which one was it? I might want to keep a note and check in on it once in a while.

[rotodog]

Remember when we were debating the all MR strategy a couple months back? Some pro's, some cons....

But the one thing we never discussed is the biggest problem that has now been identified. What if someone else in the same league is doing it? it throws both the owners off the game....And this is the result.

Although this guy seems to have done a better job.....But his relievers arent the top of the class either..And he is light on speed....Why is he light on speed? because the other took all the speed!

So 2 owners decide to employ this gimmick....

One gets the Power with a little Sb thrown in and the other gets the Sbs/avg with a little power tossed in...

Neither got the Primo closers, neither loaded up on the primo Non-closer relievers and they both screwed each others plans..

This is why gimmicks are not a good idea....because of the potential that another is employing the same gimmick...

If you had only one team employing it, I might have been able to embrace it if it was done properly...But both of these guys made donations totaling close to 3 grand to the prize fund of everyone else... Everyone else in the league now has a stronger staff as a result but maybe lighter on some offense and saves.....

[deansdaddy]

Here is a killer. If someone just drafted two closers, he could easily get a 10 or 11 in saves. This will be one of those leagues target drafting the counting categories may fall totally apart. A quick glance makes me think that Steals and HRs may be concentrated so much so that lesser totals can score well. Same for saves. The downside is that Wins, Ks and ratios may be higher than you target. It was essentially a 13-team league for starters.

How much was the entry for this league? Which one was it? I might want to keep a note and check in on it once in a while.

This was the big daddy of all leagues - $10,000 entry fee Diamond League

1st Place - $75,000
2nd Place - $35,000
3rd Place - $20,000
4th Place - $10,000

[rotodog]

Here is a killer. If someone just drafted two closers, he could easily get a 10 or 11 in saves. This will be one of those leagues target drafting the counting categories may fall totally apart. A quick glance makes me think that Steals and HRs may be concentrated so much so that lesser totals can score well. Same for saves. The downside is that Wins, Ks and ratios may be higher than you target. It was essentially a 13-team league for starters.

How much was the entry for this league? Which one was it? I might want to keep a note and check in on it once in a while.

This was the big daddy of all leagues - $10,000 entry fee Diamond League

1st Place - $75,000
2nd Place - $35,000
3rd Place - $20,000
4th Place - $10,000

So they only need to beat 14 others instead of 400+? Correct? Ok, it makes a little more sense now why one would employ it....As I remember Todd saying, you might be able to win a league with this strategy, but not to overall....

But with 10 grand apiece on the line, both have go to be very disappointed.........If i put up 10 grand in this league, I would have been jumping for joy if I had a real solid team....

As both of them prepped for this thing, I bet they had every angle figured out to a tee....Except for one. What do i do if someone else does the same thing? Hope the leaguemates thanked them for the donation.....

[AllstonRockCity]

a ha! so there is a way to thwart it; make sure someone else in your league does it too

it blows my mind that with $10K on the line people wouldn't just try to play it straight and win with balance.

hoping there's 2 of these guys in my satellite tonight.

[deansdaddy]

One of these owners out-and-out admitted that he didn't think he could beat some of the owners in this league by playing it straight - which to me was mind-boggling considering the stakes. The fact is - if you think you know what you are doing with the ALL-RP strategy, in your mind you are guaranteeing yourself a money finish. And if you get a little luck along the way - then the championship could be yours. It's not how I would approach a league of this magnitude - but I guess if you spend that much coin - you can play it as you see fit.

[daweasle]

u are correct fine sir. That offense is very good. for a 15 team league I would say it's great.

But if you punt two pitching categories - your offense better be the best offense ever assembled.

He will finish in the bottom half of the league - but not dead last.

(That dead last spot is reserved for me)

[tamburgy]

An owner tried this strategy in an NFBC Satellite I just finished. Here's how his draft went, for those interested.

Round 1: Evan Longoria
Round 2: Grady Sizemore
Round 3: Jose Reyes
Round 4: B.J. Upton
Round 5: Jonathan Broxton
Round 6: Gordon Beckham
Round 7: Carlos Pena
Round 8: Ian Stewart
Round 9: Chad Qualls
Round 10: Kurt Suzuki
Round 11: Russell Martin
Round 12: Paul Konerko
Round 13: Chris Coghlan
Round 14: Nick Swisher
Round 15: Jon Rauch
Round 16: Matt Guerrier
Round 17: Jhonny Peralta
Round 18: Lastings Milledge
Round 19: Scott Podsednik
Round 20: George Sherrill
Round 21: Luke Scott
Round 22: Luis Castillo
Round 23: Chris Young
Round 24: Juan Gutierrez
Round 25: Takashi Saito
Round 26: Coco Crisp
Round 27: Gregg Zaun
Round 28: Jesse Crain
Round 29: Jose Mijares
Round 30: Nick Punto

[viper]

A quick glance says he will have trouble with BA. The combo of BJ, Swisher and Pena could easily kill average. He could come near the 47 maximum pitching points although reaching 700 innings may be a challenge. But you still need 60+ hitting points. A '5' in average may make things tough.