strategy from 1 & 2 hole

[HIROLLERJR]

what type of strategy do you think best applies from the 1 & 2 hole based on nfbc style & the way it seems SP'S are going earlier than thought about & second base being weak possibly. obviously pujols & ramirez are 1 & 2, but where do you go when it gets back to you knowing the kds drafting style reverts away from you after pick 2 & your 3rd pick being so far away. Thanks for any replies!

[rotodog]

With a name like HiRoller, maybe we should be asking you?

Are you doing an NFBC draft from the 1,2 hole?
It sounds like you have been keeping tabs with recent NFBC drafts...

You can probably sniff around these threads and find many posts about maximizing the turn from the wheel...

There are more experienced NFBC style players here but here is my take.

1. you're guaranteed Pujols or Hanley...

On the 2/3 turn from the wheel I would look to fill my infield first if given the chance... To me, that means Best 2b/3b/SS that might have slipped...Phillips, Youk, types... Or god forbid if Rollins slips because people are taking SPs!

Hanley/Phillips/
Hanley/Youk

Pujols/Phillips
Pujols/Youk
Pujols/Rollins

Add in a CC or Greinke type If Roy Halladay does indeed go in the 2nd round...If not maybe you grab Royboy and help start the SP run...This is Depending on your style.
I might be inclined to take the Best available SP on this turn . But If Roy and Timmy have gone in the 2nd, you might take best available SP if you want to help push the SP run after your pick...This will probably push other owners into the SP panic in the 3rd/4th...leaving some quality Offense for you on the 4/5 turn...

If you feel lucky and dont want a pitcher, go with best Player Available with the 3....If Pitching continues to RUn, you can at least grab 2 back to back with 4/5 if the run is severe...

On the 4/5 turn,if you do have a pitcher already and pitching did indeed run crazy, I might grab the best bat available and keep the run going in Sp and grab the Best Available SP...

This will allow you take a little break from the Sp in the next few rounds and focus on the bats while others panic on the SPs....

I would look to leave the 3, 4 and 5th OFers for after rounds 12 if I could....There seems to be plenty of rd 12-20 quality OFers on the board and If pitching gets wacky, this will be the case again..

Maximize your wheel position whenever possible...Double up on Sps, Closers, Speed etc....If the opportunity presents itself...Maybe you dont need a Top 5 closer and you double up in the mid tier options before the rest of them get one...Maybe you cause the closer run that leaves many quality bats for your next turn.... I guess we will have to wait too see how this weeks drafts unfold before we know if the Sp runs will keeping running...but it sounds like your preparing in case it does..

I am sure many others will have something to say...

[Todd Zola]

Coincidentally, Brian W has the #2 pick on Saturday in the NFBC Classic and asked Lawr and I for some tips. We were going to make this a roundtable, but it has been a crazy week so I will post some of it here....

BRIAN Lawr, I was just reading your comment on the message board about wheel
strategies when I realized it applies to me. Somehow despite my KDS
preferences aiming for middle of the pack, I am drafting #2 in NFBC. I
assume #1 will take Hanley and I will get Albert, but I would be delighted
with the reverse to get a head start on MIF. That puts me near the wheel on
2nd-3rd round (picks #29, #32), etc.

What advice would you give me? Also copying Todd for his wisdom.

LAWR i do think filling the middle is good. if you get hanley, fine. on the return i would snatch the best second sacker or third sacker you can. although personally i don't think phillips is a second rounder. but, should kinsler or zobrist still be there and likely the panda you can stick at third. and, i did take two starting pitchers in that bloomberg draft (though only 12 teams) with my second and third picks to force a run. got greinke and halladay, too with those picks.

i do think aybar and asdrubal will also be around and they are great to fill second and short if the big guys go.

also, i do like to double up backstops around the eighth round or so. i have napoli/suzuki as a combo in a bunch of leagues. catching is really thin towards the end.

TODD

Here's my take...

With the disclaimer that almost all of this is based on the way I see the player pool and that is obviously subjective....

1. I am finding a ton of outfield talent from rounds 4-9
2. I think speed is available later
3. The relative differences between players in terms of raw value in the first few rounds this season is as small as I have seen it
4. At some point before you get into the dregs, there will be a decent first baseman on top of your available player list.

Ideally, my first 3 would be some combination of a 2B, 3B and SS. I wouldn't reach just to do that and I wouldn't pass on a healthy Pujols at #2 either, but starting with those 3 positions without sacrificing value/stats to get them basically puts you in best player available mode for the next 10-12 picks, mixing in pitching, etc. Then the end is filling needs as once you get into the teens with rounds, everyone values players differently.

If I only get 2 of the 3 position, I would most likely be happiest with a 3B and SS as the 2B is deep with serviceable players.

At 1.02, if you get Hanley, here may not be a 2B you like in the second but you will likely have your choice of Zimmerman, Youkilis, Sandoval

For the record, I think Phillips is a very worthy second round pick Again, IM not so HO, he is as worthy a second round pick as Tulowitski is a first rounder.

With respect to the wheel, based on some discussion on last weekend's drafts and the rookie league draft on our board, you will have to jump the pitching run, which is really not something you do not know yourself. If you want a top-guy, you need to take one at the 2/3 turn. If you want a top closer, you need to take one at the 4/5 turn. Doing so may even cause an run "earlier" that some expect which could play to an advantage as that pushes hitting to your next pick.

In short, at the wheel I would prefer to jump a pitcher up my "list" that take the chance I miss out on a run waiting 28 picks (or whatever the number is.)

With respect to the pitching, my "saying" is take the pitcher, not the round.

I target a group of pitchers. I don't then look at the ADP and say I will take my first pitcher at the round suggested by the ADP.

I try to time it so that I take one from that tier when that tier is being drafted, regardless if it is before or after the ADP.

This is difficult near the wheel of a 15 teamer as the entire tier can go in between your picks.

Strictly based on the ADP and the guys I target, I would be taking my first pitcher in round 6. If a few of those guys were drafted earlier, I may take one in round 5. If it is round 6 and no one from my tier has been taken yet, I will wait until 7 or 8, depending when they start to go.

[HIROLLERJR]

--I'm just "Jr' riding in the backseat of the bus, not "VIP"

[brian]

FWIW. my NFBC plan from #2 was Hanley, Pedroia/Phillips and best 3B left. Both Phillips and Pedroia were taken the two picks ahead of me in the second, so I took Youkilis instead and picked up Werth in the third, though I seriously considered doubling down on Sandoval. I changed my sights to Zobrist in the fourth, but again, he was picked off just before my selection, so I took Aaron Hill instead, as I wanted to cover the weak 2B position. So, I ended up going SS-3B-OF-2B through four.

The #1 in my league went Pujols, Votto, Reyes, Lester.