1st Pick in 15 team 1 Hitter / 1 Pitcher Keeper league

Theories, Concepts and Analytical Discussion (draft strategies, valuation, inflation, scarcity, etc.)
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Biggtyme13

1st Pick in 15 team 1 Hitter / 1 Pitcher Keeper league

#1 Post by Biggtyme13 »

I am trying to develop my strategy for my draft as we have to pay for transactions and there is pretty big pot at the end of this rainbow. It is a 6x6 league with BA,H,R,RBI,HR,SB x ERA,K,K/W,whip,W,S

I am picking out of the 7 slot which I like and traded up for the first pick and just drop down 7 slots in the 6th and 7th round. My keepers are Arod and Tommy Hanson. The rest of the keepers are

Hitters- Pujols, Ramirez, Braun, Fielder, Cabrera, Howard, Utley, Wright, Teixeira, Ellsbury, Crawford, Suzuki, Zobrist Stubbs(reds Homer)

Pitchers- Lincecum, Haren, Halladay, Sabathia, Greinke, Vazquez, Wainwright, Papelbon, Beckett, Verlander, Cain, Fuentes, Lackey, Kershaw

This leads me to my dilemma the best hitters I have left on my board are Kemp, Mauer, Tulo, Longoria. I am keen on the whole idea of starting the draft with 3b 2b SS and am wondering if anyone has any suggestions on which rout to go here.

This is only year 2 of this league so I have not gotten to pick up tendencies of my other opponents yet.

I was thinking that Kemp was too good of a Value but I am in the line of thinking that the middle OF's provide more than middle 2bs/ss.

If I go Tulo at 1 then I got 22 players before I pick again.
That would mean Kinsler and Pedroia gone and me looking at Phillips or Cano

If I go Kinsler
That would leave me hoping for Jeter/Rollins/Reyes to be there.

If I went Kemp or Mauer

Then I could take best available at 24 out of Jeter/Rollins/Reyes/Phillips/Cano and if its a ss look for Hill in round 3 at 37 if hes gone go bpa.

What is your thoughts Mastersballers?

Edit** There is a possibility that being this is first year online that the cbs rankings my effect the draft. in that case here are the players i discussed rankings

5. Mauer
7. Kemp
14. Kinsler
19. Tulo
23. Jeter
24. Rollins
29. Reyes
37. Cano
59. Hill
60. Roberts
96. Brandon Phillips

Looking forward to what u guys think.

50 Desert Eagles

Re: 1st Pick in 15 team 1 Hitter / 1 Pitcher Keeper league

#2 Post by 50 Desert Eagles »

If I missed something, then sorry, but what type of league? H2H? You were saying the rest of the Keepers? I am totally confused. I see you have 2 keepers, A-rod and Hanson...correct? Then you have first pick. You said you are thinking of going 3B, etc etc...if you have A-rod, why go 3B with your first pick or are you including your keepers? Either way, I see Tulo as a great pickup if he is the best SS there and you have A-rod. Kemp would be hard to pass, but 15 teams, should be enough OF to go around.

Biggtyme13

Re: 1st Pick in 15 team 1 Hitter / 1 Pitcher Keeper league

#3 Post by Biggtyme13 »

50 Desert Eagles wrote:If I missed something, then sorry, but what type of league? H2H? You were saying the rest of the Keepers? I am totally confused. I see you have 2 keepers, A-rod and Hanson...correct? Then you have first pick. You said you are thinking of going 3B, etc etc...if you have A-rod, why go 3B with your first pick or are you including your keepers? Either way, I see Tulo as a great pickup if he is the best SS there and you have A-rod. Kemp would be hard to pass, but 15 teams, should be enough OF to go around.
All the keepers are listed as well as the scoring being 6x6.

As for the me being keen on the starting the draft 3b/2b/SS and me already having Arod is why i was discussing options and never bringing up Longoria. My whole strategy is based off of already having arod as a keeper. And being that everyone has a keeper hitter and pitcher it basicly like we are starting in round 3 with everyone going hitter pitcher round 1 and 2. So basicly with Arod in the fold going 3b/2b/SS to start leaves me with the options of going Tulo/Kinsler to start the draft and build off that strategy. Or go another route with Kemp or Mauer. I am leaning towards Tulo and hoping that Phillips/Cano are around at 2.24.

Tig

Re: 1st Pick in 15 team 1 Hitter / 1 Pitcher Keeper league

#4 Post by Tig »

So, let me see if I got this straight: 15 teams x 2 keepers = 30 players off the board (basically, rounds 1 & 2).

You have the 7th pick in the 1st round (equivalent to the 37th pick/3rd round).

if your league-mates have any clue what they are doing, no one in front of you grabs another p, therefore, 6 hitters are gone before your pick... This should mean that you dont have a shot at Kemp, Mauer, Tulo, or Longoria as they should be the top 4 off the board, followed by 2 of Kinsler, J Upton, and Sandoval. (the order probably depends on who each teams keeper is)

your next pick is then the equivalent of 54th, meaning Phillips, Pedroia, Rollins are all gone before you go again.

If Kinsler is there at #7, you can start with your strategy of going 3b(Arod), 2b, SS - however, I dont think Rollins will still be there, (if he is, good for you) so I wouldnt follow it through to start 3b, 2b, SS just to grab the position. I think by grabbing any other SS, you are reaching and leaving a better player on the board. (Jeter may be there for you in the 4th)

in any case, i wouldnt grab another P if I were you til the 6th round.

Biggtyme13

Re: 1st Pick in 15 team 1 Hitter / 1 Pitcher Keeper league

#5 Post by Biggtyme13 »

Tig wrote:So, let me see if I got this straight: 15 teams x 2 keepers = 30 players off the board (basically, rounds 1 & 2).

You have the 7th pick in the 1st round (equivalent to the 37th pick/3rd round).

if your league-mates have any clue what they are doing, no one in front of you grabs another p, therefore, 6 hitters are gone before your pick... This should mean that you dont have a shot at Kemp, Mauer, Tulo, or Longoria as they should be the top 4 off the board, followed by 2 of Kinsler, J Upton, and Sandoval. (the order probably depends on who each teams keeper is)

your next pick is then the equivalent of 54th, meaning Phillips, Pedroia, Rollins are all gone before you go again.

If Kinsler is there at #7, you can start with your strategy of going 3b(Arod), 2b, SS - however, I dont think Rollins will still be there, (if he is, good for you) so I wouldnt follow it through to start 3b, 2b, SS just to grab the position. I think by grabbing any other SS, you are reaching and leaving a better player on the board. (Jeter may be there for you in the 4th)

in any case, i wouldnt grab another P if I were you til the 6th round.
I traded up to pick number 1

Basicly traded 7th pick in round 4 and 6 for first pick in round 5 and 7.

So with the first pick I have my choice of anyone left in the draft. And I dont usually take pitchers till 6/7 unless there is a extreme value screaming at me

daweasle
Major League Veteran
Posts: 222
Joined: February 27th, 2009, 1:29 am

Re: 1st Pick in 15 team 1 Hitter / 1 Pitcher Keeper league

#6 Post by daweasle »

IF MAUER hits 29 HR with a 350 avg - I think he's the best pick.

he will be significantly better than vmart and mccann (but they will both be gone before your next pick) and MAUER will be twice as good as every other catcher.

there is no other position where you can see such a huge drastic drop-off in value - I'd say that's position scarcity at its best.

I would never take mauer #1 overall - but I will certainly take him number #1 in the third round when he is clearly the best player available.

especially since no one stands out to you - don't go 2B/SS/3B just because people say you should do that in the first 2 rounds. They say that you should do that because they assume utley and hanley and arod and wright will be there. In this case - they're not there.

so get the best available player.

which is mauer.

cwk1963

Re: 1st Pick in 15 team 1 Hitter / 1 Pitcher Keeper league

#7 Post by cwk1963 »

Kemp is the guy to go with here without doubt, IMO. Mauer will not hit near 29 HR or .350 either. Kemp will give you the best across the board production. If you were starting fresh, with no keepers, Kemp is a sure first round choice - maybe even top 5 - pick. Mauer, at best is a late first round, most likely 2nd round choice. And it falls that way for a reason.

daweasle
Major League Veteran
Posts: 222
Joined: February 27th, 2009, 1:29 am

Re: 1st Pick in 15 team 1 Hitter / 1 Pitcher Keeper league

#8 Post by daweasle »

sorry i just went with what cbs sportsline has him at (30HR .3497avg) and he has hit over 347 twice in the past 4 years. (and 331 another year)

as for the HR - it's hard to guess how the new ball park will play - but I would bet you a soda if he gets 520 ABs, he hits >25

I personnally could not pick kemp but the projections say he might be the right pick becauseof the stolen bases - i just like mauer cause he is SO much better then everyone else at his position

(mauer + late round OF) is better then (kemp + late round catcher)

the mauer side will win every category besides SB -
and stolen bases are available late in the draft this year from an abundance of sources

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