Draft Strategy for 11th pick

[maxdad007]

I pick 11th in a 12 team points based H2H. My keepers are Braun, Kemp, and Holliday. Now that every one else's keepers are set I'm trying to set up my first two picks . Here are the top players available and was soliciting opinions on who I should target. We start 1 at every position, 1 DH and 4 SP and 2 RP with 8 man bench. I was thinking of doing a combination of C/2B/3B to start but should I be open to drafting either an OF or 1B if an immense value presents itself. These aren't necessarily ranked in order of overall talent but I would be hard pressed to draft an OF since I have 3 already. You can see the scoring system here: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=440
1
Greinke, Zack (SP KC)
2
Wright, David (3B NYM)
3
Morneau, Justin (1B MIN)
4
Votto, Joey (1B CIN)
5
Cano, Robinson (2B NYY)
6
McCann, Brian (C ATL)
7
Ramirez, Aramis (3B CHC)
8
Phillips, Brandon (2B CIN)
9
Reynolds, Mark (3B ARI)
10
Lester, Jon (SP BOS)
11
Wainwright, Adam (SP STL)
12
Hamels, Cole (SP PHI)
13
Haren, Dan (SP ARI)
14
Lee, Cliff (SP SEA)
15
Upton, Justin (OF ARI)
16
Sizemore, Grady (OF CLE)
17
Lind, Adam (OF TOR)

[Hambowen]

If I was you I would hope for Phillips and A-ram to drop to you with your picks. I am sure A-ram will be there for your 2nd pick.

I would go with the best scarce position with your first pick. AKA 2nd/C/SS/3B

[maxdad007]

My best case was a combo of McCann, Phillips and A-Ram, which is funny since Phillips and A-Ram were my fist two picks last year as well. If McCann makes it do I take him over the other two? The 12th pick has Pedroia so I don't have to worry about him taking Phillips. but McCann would be nice luxury to have.

[maxdad007]

Also if Upton some how makes it, do I have to take him? If he falls to me I might be able to trade after the fact but there is a lot of uncertainty there. I would be really hard to pass on 2nd round talent in the equivalent of the end of the 4th round.

[AllstonRockCity]

As tempting as Upton is, you already have 3 stud OF. Adding him or Sizemore might be overkill; depends on how active trading is in your league.

Phillips for sure should be 1 of your targets.

I would take McCann over ARam every day of the week and twice on Sundays. This is because McCann is a great player still on the rise and ARam is the opposite. If he's there, Reynolds would be a good target. I"m assuming Wright is gone by the time you pick, if not POUNCE. Going Wright->Phillips would be sick.

If all 4 (McCann, Phillips, Wright, Reynolds) are gone for your 2nd pick then I would consider Cano or 1 of those Starters. I know you like to wait on SPs, but those guys are Aces and you could then wait an extra round or 2 to get your next SP vs. when you would normally take your 1st SP.

[maxdad007]

The only problem with Reynolds is we have a -1 for K's, and while I rode him last year it would really have to be a worst case scenario if I have to take him. Out of the Sp's available, who do you like more? I think Greinke is #1 but not really sure how the rest break down.

[maxdad007]

Also where do you think Beckham ranks as far as the 2nd basemen I'm looking at? Should I reach for him if everyone I want goes? I wouldn't mind if anyone else wants to offer their 2 cents as well.

[AllstonRockCity]

The only problem with Reynolds is we have a -1 for K's, and while I rode him last year it would really have to be a worst case scenario if I have to take him. Out of the Sp's available, who do you like more? I think Greinke is #1 but not really sure how the rest break down.

Your scoring system has lots and lots of ways to gain and lose points. I'm a 5x5 kinda guy. To me the SPs listed break down as:
Haren
Grienke
--------
Hamels
Lester
Lee
Wainwright - his IP went up 101 last year. i like him, but that's a huge increase

I'm fine with any of these guys anchoring my staff, but the 1st 2 are a notch above.

Also where do you think Beckham ranks as far as the 2nd basemen I'm looking at? Should I reach for him if everyone I want goes? I wouldn't mind if anyone else wants to offer their 2 cents as well.

Are you sure he has the 2B eligibility yet? If so, check out:

viewtopic.php?f=7&t=1736

[maxdad007]

I sometimes overlook Haren, since he always finishes so much slower then he starts. Would you rank him above the Phillips/McCann combo I'm hoping to get? With 8 SP's being kept, should I grab Haren or Greinke if I have the chance? I think I would rank Grienke ahead of Phillips, but not necessarily McCann. I can't wait till we draft on Sunday.

[daweasle]

I don't know how many years you've done this league - but I am sure you will notice that pitching is super shallow in this league.

I would focus on players at shallow positions for a 12 team league for the first 7-8 rounds.

and worry about the pitching in rounds 8 9 10 etc

if I were picking for your team - here's how I would rank them

Wright, David (3B NYM)
McCann, Brian (C ATL)
Cano, Robinson (2B NYY)
Votto, Joey (1B CIN)
Phillips, Brandon (2B CIN)
Reynolds, Mark (3B ARI)
Ramirez, Aramis (3B CHC)
Upton, Justin (OF ARI)
Sizemore, Grady (OF CLE)
Morneau, Justin (1B MIN)

In fact - if I were you - I would go deeper in hitters looking for other 2B/SS/3B/1B targets and delete the two OF, and all pitchers for a few picks.

I count like 9 guys there that will be gone before your pick at #11 and that means you'll be lucky to get one guy who is not an OF.

by the way - I didn;t totally factor in the strikeouts and other peculiuraties of your scoring system - I just went based on projections and scarcity - you know your league dynamics - but I think even guys like jeter/victor martinez/ben zobrist/others would fit your team much better than a early SP pick

[maxdad007]

OK I forgot about Zobrist but the other two unfortunately are being kept. I understand what your saying though, and I would do backflips if Wright made it to me. I think the McCann and a combo of Cano, Phillips, or Votto would be pretty good. The nice part is I can take McCann at 11 and not worry about 2B/3B since the guy at 12 has A-Rod and Pedroia.