Help with Option Years

[AllstonRockCity]

Greetings fellow M.B.ers,

Need some opinions for the following league: 11team AL-only 5x5, $283 at auction, 25 man rosters (14 standard H's, 1 H/P, 10P's).

The following players have reached their option year for us and we need to decide how many years to resign them for (1year at $5per, 2years at $10per or 3years at $15per):

Dustin Pedroia $7*: the reigning MVP and last years ROY, thinking 3 years making him $22 a year for the next 3 years.

ARod $40*: the best player in the league(?), torn between 1 more year at $45 or 2 at $50 apiece, $55 for 3 just seems to be too much

Dioner Navarro $3*: it seems that 1 year at $8 is a no-brainer, would anyone go longer on him?? whats the upside here and how close is he to reaching it?

Jack Cust $3*: 1 year at $8 seems the max. I doubt anyone would suggest longer. Does anyone feel that even the 1 year is too much, should we throw him back??

We Welcome as many opinions as possible.

[cwk1963]

Pedroia - 3 @ $22
Arod - 3 @ $55 (If you're willing to go 2 @ $50, what's $5 more? If you fall out of contention in year 3 can you use him as trade bait to rebuild?)
Navarro - 1 @ $8
Cust - 2 @ $13 (with the caveat being is there going to be much power available to buy? He and Arod give you a nice power base to build on and Alex's BA will help you absorb Cust's.)

[AllstonRockCity]

Thanks CWK,

Is there going to be much power to buy? Tough to say at this point but even if there is, it usually costs big $$ to get it. For example last year Miggy went for $45 and Morneau $40. 2 years ago Vladdy went for $45.

But this brings me back to ARod. It seems that in the 4 years since I've joined this league NO ONE ever goes above $50 for a player. I know 'following the heard' is never a good idea in this game, but some of these guys have been in this league 20+ years, surely they must be on to something, no?

No concerns that Cust loses P.T.? It already looks crowded in the OF/DH in Oakland w/ Giambi in town.

Anyone else?

[cwk1963]

As far as Arod goes, you know your league best. But, let me ask you a question. If you're willing to go $50 and someone throws out that magic bid, will you go $51 or not? Miggy went for $45 and Morneau $40 with a bit less power and virtually zero bags. Arod is the best player in an only league and I don't see the extra $5 as being a non-starter. Zig while they zag. Be a rebel, a pioneer, cause a stir. Keep him for 3 @ $55.

As far as Cust goes, I think Oakland needs his power in the lineup as much as possible. I think Barton's lack of punch will have him getting less AB's. They realized they needed to beef up their lineup hence the Holliday acquisition. Even after this, they signed Giambi (the same kind of player as Cust) because they realized they still needed more. Why sign him and then sit Cust?

[msugray]

A 3 year deal for ARod seems excessive. Even a 2 year deal seems more than necessary.
(I like to discount future seasons in lieu of current profits as so many things can happen)

A 3 year extension will cover ARod through 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012.
Let's assume that ARod is a $50 player still in 2011 at age 36.
ARod may age gracefully, but he will age nonetheless. The SB will most likely not be there and the 45+ HR will probably not be there. Would a stat line of .290, 35 hr, 110 rbi, 110 r, 10 sb be reasonable, if not optimistic, 3 seasons from now? Wouldn't that be easily purchased for $50? I find it difficult to fathom that ARod will be commanding MORE than $50 in 2011. Therefore, if you want to own him for 4 more seasons, you should be able to reacquire him.

Compare the contract options:
1 year @ $45
2009- $45
2010- $45
2011- $50 (re-bid if wished)
2012- $50
2013- contract option
Total cost of 4 years $190, 3 years $140, cheapest up front salary, even IF $55 in 2011 you save $10 each of 1st 2 years of the deal.

2 year @ $50
2009- $50
2010- $50
2011- $50
2012- $50 (re-bid if wished)
Total cost of 4 years $200, 3 years $150

3 year @ $55
2009- $55
2010- $55
2011- $55
2012- $55
Total cost of 4 years $220, 3 years $165, immediate hit to 2009

The ONLY way I go more than 1 year extension on ARod is if you believe he will be more than a $50 player in 2011.
I do like adding one year @ $45. It will double your trading partners for 2009 should you choose to move him.
I also believe the future profit is probably more expansive than what I've supposed. ARod will more likely than not be purchased for less than $50 in 2011/2012.

[cwk1963]

A 3 year deal for ARod seems excessive. Even a 2 year deal seems more than necessary.
(I like to discount future seasons in lieu of current profits as so many things can happen)

A 3 year extension will cover ARod through 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012.
Let's assume that ARod is a $50 player still in 2011 at age 36.
ARod may age gracefully, but he will age nonetheless. The SB will most likely not be there and the 45+ HR will probably not be there. Would a stat line of .290, 35 hr, 110 rbi, 110 r, 10 sb be reasonable, if not optimistic, 3 seasons from now? Wouldn't that be easily purchased for $50? I find it difficult to fathom that ARod will be commanding MORE than $50 in 2011. Therefore, if you want to own him for 4 more seasons, you should be able to reacquire him.

Compare the contract options:
1 year @ $45
2009- $45
2010- $45
2011- $50 (re-bid if wished)
2012- $50
2013- contract option
Total cost of 4 years $190, 3 years $140, cheapest up front salary, even IF $55 in 2011 you save $10 each of 1st 2 years of the deal.

2 year @ $50
2009- $50
2010- $50
2011- $50
2012- $50 (re-bid if wished)
Total cost of 4 years $200, 3 years $150

3 year @ $55
2009- $55
2010- $55
2011- $55
2012- $55
Total cost of 4 years $220, 3 years $165, immediate hit to 2009

The ONLY way I go more than 1 year extension on ARod is if you believe he will be more than a $50 player in 2011.
I do like adding one year @ $45. It will double your trading partners for 2009 should you choose to move him.
I also believe the future profit is probably more expansive than what I've supposed. ARod will more likely than not be purchased for less than $50 in 2011/2012.

This is all well and good if his league allows it. Many leagues do not allow re-signing after a contract is up - the player becomes a FA. My reading of it (and, I might be wrong) is if he signs him for $45 he gets him for 2009 and 2009 only. If he wants 2 years it's $50 for each of 2009 and 2010, etc.

[msugray]

"Many leagues do not allow re-signing after a contract is up - the player becomes a FA."

I did not consider this. Have not played in a league where I wouldn't be able to BID on a player that I was returning to the FA pool.
If other leagues have this stipulation, it would change my outlook on many long-term contract decisions.

[AllstonRockCity]

Many leagues do not allow re-signing after a contract is up - the player becomes a FA. My reading of it (and, I might be wrong) is if he signs him for $45 he gets him for 2009 and 2009 only. If he wants 2 years it's $50 for each of 2009 and 2010, etc.

This is the way my league works, and I like your analysis of the Cust situation.

But msugray's point on ARods value in 2011 is why I originally thought that 3 years was too much. Its tough to see him earn $55 at age 36 and have to pay that much each year for the next 2 to find out.

hmmm

[Todd Zola]

I'm going to offer a different opinion on Pedroia. At $22, there is limited upside, but a ton of downside. I would rather sign for 2 seasons and lock in the profit as opposed to hoping he does not fall too far from his MVP season.

[Hambowen]

Agree completely Todd on Pedroia.

As for A-rod I would still say only 2 years. I find it strange that if a players contract runs out from your team you cannot even bid on him at the auction but if that is the rules then that is the rule.

[cwk1963]

Agree completely Todd on Pedroia.

As for A-rod I would still say only 2 years. I find it strange that if a players contract runs out from your team you cannot even bid on him at the auction but if that is the rules then that is the rule.

What we're saying is if Arod's contract runs out he can't be resigned to a new contract - he goes back into the auction and anybody can then get him - not that he cannot bid on him.

[Hambowen]

OK that is what I would think the rule would be. So if that is the case and mentioned earlier that no player ever goes over $50 then i see zero reason to sign him to more then 2 years. Based on the fact that he should decline in his mid 30's he is more likely to be under $50 then over $50 in auction come 2 years from now.

Based on this 2 years should be the max imo.

[msugray]

What we're saying is if Arod's contract runs out he can't be resigned to a new contract - he goes back into the auction and anybody can then get him - not that he cannot bid on him.

I figured this was the case. Forum is not the most efficient form of communication, especially when I'M on one end of the conversation!


I tend to more conservative than others when it comes to long-terming. I don't like spending today's profits for tomorrow's production. Each person has to determine their level of risk/reward.

Jason Grey wrote a good article on "Long Term Contracts" a few years ago. Since he is not here, I won't post his content. Not will I post his concepts off as my own as many online are prone to do. Maybe, Todd could get his permission or Todd/GaryJ could write an article of their long-term philosophy?

[AllstonRockCity]

I had a feeling Todd would say 2 on Pedroia after having read his "Picks&Pans".

So the question is: is it better to lock up the best talent at close to value or to lock in and maximize a players profit potential? I can see the argument for both sides but what eventually wins most leagues, the team w/ the most talent or the one w/ the most profit? (and for on-line clarity purposes, that is not a rhetorical question)

[Todd Zola]

Jason Grey wrote a good article on "Long Term Contracts" a few years ago. Since he is not here, I won't post his content. Not will I post his concepts off as my own as many online are prone to do. Maybe, Todd could get his permission or Todd/GaryJ could write an article of their long-term philosophy?

Feel free to "remind" us of this by requesting it it in the DFAFT KIT ESSAY thread in the general forum and in the meantime, I will "remind" myself of Jason's theories, after all, we do think alike