Keep Pujols?

[shif6]

I have him at $43 in an NL $280 budget league that drafts 25 on the active roster (ten pitchers, two UT), but inflation is about 20%. I have the option to top him. I ask because I do not know how much to worry about his back, and I need to decide today. If keeping him is a mistake, my team is toast (except that for rebuilding purposes he would have trade value). If the back is not a serious worry, I keep him without a second thought.

[rotodog]

I have him at $43 in an NL $280 budget league that drafts 25 on the active roster (ten pitchers, two UT), but inflation is about 20%. I have the option to top him. I ask because I do not know how much to worry about his back, and I need to decide today. If keeping him is a mistake, my team is toast (except that for rebuilding purposes he would have trade value). If the back is not a serious worry, I keep him without a second thought.

NL only, 280 budget? Screw Topper rights....Keep him! ALL DAY LONG... With 20% across the board inflation, that means 30% for THE best player in baseball.... Dont worry about the back. he will cost you 14 more bucks to TOP on draft day..Guarantee it...

Disclaimer: that assumes he doesnt have some season ending injury before your draft..A little Spring training back barking is nothing to worry about IMO....

43 is theft in an NL keeper with 280 budget and inflation..

[da_big_kid_94]

I have him at $43 in an NL $280 budget league that drafts 25 on the active roster (ten pitchers, two UT), but inflation is about 20%. I have the option to top him. I ask because I do not know how much to worry about his back, and I need to decide today. If keeping him is a mistake, my team is toast (except that for rebuilding purposes he would have trade value). If the back is not a serious worry, I keep him without a second thought.

May I ask a question? You kept him all last year at $43 with an elbow problem that could have spelled Tommy John at any moment .... and your concern is about his back? It's a spasm ...it's not as if we're talking disc here. You keep him.

[shif6]

Actually, I did not draft him. I traded for him in an effort to win last year. (He had been owned by another team for years; our prices go up $4 a year). I would not have taken the risk at the beginning of the year in which Tommy John surgery was a worry.

Some think whether to keep Pujols is a problem: consider these comments from the HQ forum
Originally Posted by yanks23
Keep him. Back seems to be a minor problem & he plays through his problems. response from Tom@HQ
"I don't know... back problems are minor until they become major, you know what I'm saying?
I don't think this can be ignored. Unfortunately, we are all flying blind right now."

response from DiCaprio@HQ "no way would i keep him at that price even if fully healthy. how much profit do you expect? is your league that tough that you cant get a better return in the auction? maybe it is but i doubt it."

The question is complicated by the fact that I have Pujols in another league, so it is a double gamble. Pujols is about at value considering the league parameters according to this site even given the $280 budget (recall the two additional positions). But, given the inflation, I am inclined to keep him. Thanks for the comments.

[rotodog]

I know you asked for advice, but one thing to be careful of. Be careful of random advice from the internet....Even mine.

I say this because of one of the responses you just posted from Dicaprio... "No way would I keep Pujols..No profit!"

If you asked the same question there as you did here and got that response, remember it is one mans opinion...A bad one, but still his....To be honest, to give an answer like that is borderline malpractice....

Lets be honest....In an NL only league with 280, 260 or whatever, Pujols 2010 PVIAV ( projected value in a Vacuum) is at least 45 bucks by any serious valuation service I would think..

The question one has to ask is what will he cost to acquire if I threw him back? In an NL Keeper league with a 280 budget, that price is between 55-60 bucks... So forget about profit. This is the best player in baseball...Reliable as shit and in his worst year ever still probably delivered top 10 fantasy numbers if not top 5 in all of baseball..

There is a Huge advantage to not even putting him out there and letting other bid. Along with other NL 1b keepers, it will further inflate any decent NL 1b on draft day..And seeing as how you own Pujols already, that shouldnt be of real concern to you...

I realize a barking back on a rainy day may seem to worry you, but guys show up to ST games all the time and have teeeny little symptoms of something and get scratched... Half of them probably have hangovers and call it FLU-Like symptoms..... At this point, there really is no real reason to worry.....

What if you could buy Joey Votto for 14 bucks on draft day? That is the equivalent of owning Pujols at 43 in an NL keeper with 280 IMO..( yeah, its a rough metaphor, but you get the drift) .

And No matter what valuation tool you use for the 280 budget, it will take that extra 20 bucks and most likely spread it thru the roster and give every one a dollar bump....But in reality, see it as an extra 19 bucks to put towards 1-2 players.....Your last player or the extra player will most likely go for a buck anyhow....so 20 bucks should be seen as 19 extra dollars to buy quality and a 1 dollar player....

Remember what I said..Be leery of free advice...This advice included. But if this makes more sense than "No way would I keep Pujols at 43..There is no profit !", then go with your gut instincts....and your gut should tell you that Poo Holes at 43 is a steal in your league!.. Good Luck

[rotodog]

Ok...Disclaimer.. 5 minutes after writing the above post, Rotoworld is reporting that Pujols had an MRI on the BAck today and got a Pain killer shot in his back..... I wish you had more than 2 hours to make a choice...

But you can now discount everything I said above.....MRI and Pain killing shot are a bit more worrisome than tightness in his lower back...

I would still probably take the gamble personally because pujols is a warrior, but I just wanted you to realize that the News is out there now.....

[Todd Zola]

forgetting the injury for a moment, I personally think keeping him is a no-brainer and the question that should be asked is what kind of profit do you expect with what you buy with the money you have if you toss him back?

some so-called expert wrote about keeper stuff here..

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/f ... index.html

[Hambowen]

That comment about not keeping him and where is the profit? Just seems like someone who does not play many if any Auction keeper leagues to me.

Pujols is $55-60 all day in a league with 20-30% inflation.

If you had a real cheap keeper that you had to choose between the 2 then it might be a question but with someone like Pujols being at value is a keeper for sure.

In Auction keeper leagues your profit is usually in your keepers and then you go for stats with your money. In other words with the top talent in an auction keeper league there will be no profit on studs at the draft. You will have to overpay for them.

The person who gave you the above advice of where is the profit sounds like the guy that complains everyone else is crazy/dumb for paying the prices they are on players and then he leaves $30 on the table unspent.

[rotodog]

Well, did you keep him?

Above, Todd said something in one sentence that we spent paragraphs talking about.

What would $ 43 bucks buy on draft day? Would you rather own Pujols and throw the so called profit and value notion out the window? Or do you want to get into a bidding war for Adam laroche or Lance Berkman and end up paying anywhere near 43 bucks?

Even if I was told that Pujols would miss the entire month of April ( Which he isnt..just an extreme example), I would rather have 5 months of Pujols at 43 than 6 months of any other 1b in the national league for 10 bucks less...

Good Luck...I wish the best for Albert and you if you kept him..

PS: one more point to consider....At 43 I still contend that Pujols is 15 bucks underpriced in your league. What would he bring in trade if you were not in it in July? What would he bring in trade if you were in it and needed help to win? A smart dumping NL player would realize that a bunch of 5 dollar schleps is nowhere near as good as Pujols at 43....I would. With your keeper rules, he can reasonably be kept for 2-3 years after this season...

[lawr]

i think we all thought he was hurt this time of the year for the past couple of years. think of how good he could have been if he hadn't been?

keep him...

[Tig]

Pujols was kept for $53 in my $260 cap 12 team 7x7 mixed league.

[Todd Zola]

and he is playing today...

http://interact.stltoday.com/blogzone/c ... or-return/