The First round

[viper]

Why isn't the first round of any straight draft the single fastest round of the entire draft? This really shouldn't assume you already know your draft slot but even more so if you do.

If you have the first pick, you should know who you want.
With the second pick, you only need a list two deep. Either your first pick is gone or he isn't.

The same logic should continue all the way until the end of the round. Either one of our early choices slipped or he didn't. It's not as if you will bypass your 6th choice at the 11th pick if he is there.

Now you may pause if the 3rd through 6th picks are pitchers but aside from Lincecum you won't really see pitchers taken.

And still people, after having a week to create that first round list, tend to wait as if some revelation will strike them in their 60-90 seconds of time to make the pick.

Just an observation

[Todd Zola]

I think it has to do with people not wanting to screw up and not really mapping out the ripple effect of who they take, so they really don't have a pre-set list. That said, I am of the opinion that you do your thinking while others are picking and when it is your turn, you are ready. This puts some pressure on the people to either side, especially if you are near the wheel so you can take advantage of a hurried pick by an opponent. I was picking out of the 15-hole on MDC for a 45-rounder and got the nickname speedy by about round 26 -- first time I have ever been called that. Here is the time elapsed per pick...

6s
3s
4s
2s
5s
14s
8s
1m 3s (Howie Kendrick, struggled but pulled the trigger)
4s
4s
6s
3s
30s
7s
5s
2s
4s
2s
6s
7s
4s
3s
3s
12s
4s
9s
3s
21s
4s
7s
55s
18s
3s
5s
5s
7s
4s
23s
8s
5s
5s
2s
4s
3s
3s

[viper]

I agree as when you do your thinking as the draft progresses. Still the first round is really cut and dried, assuming you gave thought to your pick.

In the Rookie Legaue, I was at the 14 slot. I kept track of the #15's pitchers, catchers and closers. After I had my second closer, I quit following anything but his catchers. An advantage of being on the end is that seldom, if ever, a player you considered at the turn is still there later.

When wright was taken early, my only though was that he was likely to go before my pick so it doesn't impact me. Wright, Tulowitski and reluctantly Crawford were on my radar. One or two of them would probably be gone. Mauer was actually there but I determined I wasn't taking him at number 1. I did know I was taking Adrian Gonzalez at 2.2. There may have been more "valuable" players at that pick but he was the best of the power corners. I was not taking an OF on my first loop. I'm sure someone at about 2.7 or beyond had mentally targeted Adrian. I had mentally target Kendry at 3.14 but settled for Ichiro. I'm not crying.

[lawr]

agreed. i worked a couple of drafts today. a classic this morning.

there was one team--the 15th team--who really did not know what to do, and, that was all predicated on him not wanting to blow it. as a result, his team was all over the map.

which is too bad. i kept wanting to tell him, "dude, you are on the wheel here. you are actually in a position to control and dictate as much as anyone in the entire draft."

but, i did not. for one thing, it is his team and vision. not to mention, sure as shit, his team will probabaly win because i don't think it is very good, you know.

but, second, well, i just keep my mouth shut during the draft anyway.

i think, though, it is true. that indecisiveness, though, for better or worse, is something those with a clear path and vision can generally take advantage of.

[brooklyn49]

This is a fascinating post and the first time I can recall the beginnings of a discussion of strategy dependent upon draft position. Also, it has been only recent that I've seen common reference to the wheel position in a draft although we have all described it by various term. I hope it will lead to further discussion or perhaps an article.

True, self interest has a motive here. I have the #1 pick in a 12 team, mixed, roto-scoring league with lots of head-to-head type categories, which also means the wheel position in subsequent rounds.

So now, I am trying to make a decision integrating:
1. Value - clearly take Pujols
2. Tiers - lots of quality 1B, much larger gaps between SS, clearly take Hanley
3. Draft Position - who is likely to be there when 2.12 & 3.1 comes around, am I reaching for an Adrian Gonzalez or a Derek Jeter?

And that, in a nutshell, is why it takes some of us so long to make a pick while the clock is ticking.

[viper]

there should be a solid 1B on the first wheel. Adrian Gonzalez could very will be there along with Youkilis. There probably won't be a top SS. It is early for Jeter. He might be there at the 4/5 loop. Kinsler & Utley ought to be gone but Phillips is a possibility. A factor will be how your specific league approaches scarcity.

I'm personally big on corner power. I have no qualms taking two 1Bs in my first three picks. Many [most probably] would go another way. I good thing to do is think about what you would do on the 4/5 swing. Most likely a top SP and some position player. Look at who is likely to be there at the 4/5 swing and then go backwards to the #1 pick and the 2/3 swing. You could easily decide that Hanley works out best.

[Todd Zola]

Everyone has their own theory, but Gary and I happen to mesh this season as we agree that starting with a 2B/3B/SS as your first three picks really sets you up nicely to then go best player available and end up filling in positions nicely.

That said, depending on the categories, Albert is simply too valuable to pass. I would so what I could to get 2 of those 3 positions at the 2/3 turn, but I doubt I would pass on Pujols for Hanley in H2H.

In 5x5 straight roto, I may actually take Hanley #1 overall.

[viper]

I'm always thinking roto. I quit H2H several years back. Too much time commitment in that all my H2H leagues were daily moves.

[Captain Hook]

While I would be glad to start any draft this year with Phat Albert or Hanjob, I think there is tremendous value if you are at the end of round one and can start your draft with whichever 1B slid - in many drafts that is Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, or Miguel Cabrera and THEN get either Crawford or Ellsbury as your second pick (if you were #14 you might actually take Crawford knowing you would get one of the 1B or at worst AGonz at 2.2)

That power/speed combo for your first two picks would be awesome (in fact in last year's NFBC league in Vegas Childs started Howard and then got Crawford in the second because some idiot in front of him that I see in the mirror every day didn't take Crawford to pair with Teixeira).

[cwk1963]

I had my first ever NFBC draft yesterday and had the 15 wheel spot. I would have taken Fielder if he fell to me but he didn't (almost). I started with Tulo and didn't want to take Adrian at 2-1 so Wright it was. I wanted one from the top pitching tiers and the only one left at 3-15 was Haren so I took him. I didn't fill 1B until round 6 with Adam Dunn.

[viper]

at the 14 in the rookie league I took Tulo and followed at 2.2 with Adrian. However, if my choices were Wright or Adrian, it would have been Wright. I even had him before Tulo. Had both Fielder and Howard in front of him too. Alas, the rookies did a good job of not letting one of the major players slip. Probably because. as a group, they let Mauer slip. I knew he was still there at 2.2 but had zero interest. Well, near zero.

[rotodog]

I had my first ever NFBC draft yesterday and had the 15 wheel spot. I would have taken Fielder if he fell to me but he didn't (almost). I started with Tulo and didn't want to take Adrian at 2-1 so Wright it was. I wanted one from the top pitching tiers and the only one left at 3-15 was Haren so I took him. I didn't fill 1B until round 6 with Adam Dunn.

Sounds like a man after my own heart....Tulo/Wright is a great start...Dunn as a 1b in the 6th is a steal IMO....