AL Only Strangeness

[viper]

I play in a local 10-team AL-only auction league. I'm actually defending and it is my next league to draft. Last year I had seven $1 players so I guess you would say I did Stars & Scrubs. I just ran CVRC using positions and a CA/OF mix. I wanted to see if there was much difference and where scarcity existed.

First, there isn't purely scarcity as all teams could field a legal lineup with $2 and up players. Only thirteen catcher qualified but you only had to go to a few -$1 players to get a valid roster.

What I did find was that 3B was scarce and there wasn't any single player that stood out. There were 27-28 players over $20 using both positional options. I'm not sure how this will play out in the auction but using CVRC numbers, bidding more than $30 is too much. I'm more than sure there will be several $40 players and a half dozen over $35.

Has anyone else looked closely at the AL pool. Maybe with more teams things change but I admit I was surprised by the results. I need to make a full tier but I admit surprise at what I se so far.

[Todd Zola]

I just did a 12-team draft and the thing that struck me is the end game is a cesspool and this is the season to use old friend Jason's Grey method of not only paying for offense, but also avoiding $1 players -- buy at bats, at bats and when you are done buying at bats, buy some more.

Not sure if this will hold true in 10-team though.

[lawr]

catcher, and third are very weak in the al.

i wound up with ka'ahiue at corner (quinlan on reserve) and that just never happens to me. and, i do like landon powell, but, i really would have been happier with a catcher combo of pierzynski and suzuki or something.

but, well, it got tight at the end.

third is not as bad as it seems, for at least there are arod, longoria, and even figgins, and beckham. kouz could also be ok, along with beltre. but, once it drops, it really drops with guys like wood being real speculations.

what is strange though is in strat leagues, this was a bumper year for rookies (all based upon last year). funny how the cycles come and go.

i would be surprised if anyone in tout al went for over $35. maybe arod and crawford. maybe. we'll see.

[viper]

I just saw the AL 5x5 tiers. They seem to visually show what I was talking about. Fir my league, every player above the $5 tier would be drafted and that would be enough. The league has no bench so onl;y 140 hitters get drafted. Also, you cannot draft players who are not on the MLB rosters. A disabled player can be put on the DL after one week on your active roster [one week of dead stats]. Someone who is sent to the minors after the drafts but before the season leaves you more difficult options. You either release him or you play with a dead position [very few ABs to say the least].

I like the 5x5 tiers in the Platinum section. I wish there was a spreadsheet version. I could then identify multi-positional players like Zorbist with their alternative position shown. Aside from that, this chart is what I will do. I just need to use a pen/highlighter or type up something almost exactly as what you have.

[Guest]

Given multiple requests, we will post an excel version later today/tonight. Note that there are no promises on its print-ease, but you guys can mess around with it as you wish.

[viper]

thanks

[rotodog]

One thing that always struck me as odd when doing AL only leagues....And it seems to fit this year as Viper and Todd suggested.

If the AL is the better, more offensive minded league, Why is is the player pool of Bats always so much deeper and better in the NL? I realize the number of teams will contribute to more NL players, But when you are looking for the Best and deepest at positions, It seems the NL trumps the AL....

Have you guys ever noticed this over the past 5+ years or is it me?

[david_hume]

I realize the number of teams will contribute to more NL players

this is the cause in my opinion

[Todd Zola]

I realize the number of teams will contribute to more NL players

this is the cause in my opinion

Except most NL only leagues use 13 teams and 10 pitchers to compensate.

[AllstonRockCity]

I think it has something to do with DH.

In the NL the bench hitters hit more, in the AL they sit on the bench more. Pinch hitting for the pitcher and double switches gives more value to the first guy off the bench in the NL. Of course and AL lineup has 9 hitters vs. 8. So I guess it would be more correct to say that the 2nd guy off the bench in the NL has more value than the 1st guy off the bench in the AL. Or maybe there are more platoon situations currently in the NL than in the AL.

[Todd Zola]

The fact that there are more stars in the NL is happenstance. With our hitter rankings, 11 of the top 30 are NL. Then 11 of 14 are AL. Pitchers are more evenly distributed.

Actually, any analysis is more than likely happenstance, but it does make intuitive sense that the bench players in the NL get more at bats.

[david_hume]

Except most NL only leagues use 13 teams and 10 pitchers to compensate.

right, but there are two extra NL teams in MLB and we only add one in fantasy. i haven't looked into this too deeply though. do you have another theory todd?

[david_hume]

Actually, any analysis is more than likely happenstance

looking at the top 20 players in any one year is going to have a lot of randomness (variance) in terms in AL vs. NL. as the sample gets bigger (as you exaimne the whole hitter pool as opposed to just the studs), the results will be more mean reverting and less random.

[Todd Zola]

Except most NL only leagues use 13 teams and 10 pitchers to compensate.

right, but there are two extra NL teams in MLB and we only add one in fantasy. i haven't looked into this too deeply though. do you have another theory todd?

It's not a theory, it's math

NL MLB 16 teams x 25 players is 400 players
Fantasy team 13 teams x 24 players is 312 players

PENETRATION = 312/400 = 78%

AL MLB 14 teams x 25 players = 350 players
Fantasy team 12 teams x 23 players = 276 players

PENETRATION = 276/350 = 79%

[Captain Hook]

not quite Todd (and I am not a math wizard although I played one in high school before most of you except viper were born)

Forget the pitchers

Let's presume most teams have 13 hitters and 12 pitchers (gets worse/better if you have less pitchers which some clubs do)

NL - hitters pool = 13x16 = 208 so 13 roto teams with 14 hitters (13x14/208) = 87.5%

AL - hitters pool = 13x14 = 182 so 12 roto teams with 14 hitters (12x14/182) = 92.3%

[david_hume]

i agree with your math. the question was about the hitting pool in the NL seeming deeper. since the number of hitting slots in NL and AL leagues are the same, the hitting penetration in the AL is deeper? maybe?

[Todd Zola]

Perry -- I purposely used total penetration as teams do not follow the 13/12 presumption all season.

[Todd Zola]

i agree with your math. the question was about the hitting pool in the NL seeming deeper. since the number of hitting slots in NL and AL leagues are the same, the hitting penetration in the AL is deeper? maybe?

The hitting penetration is virtually the same. Perry's numbers shows it to be a bit deeper in the AL, but that already small gap could be narrowed if a couple of NL teams carry more pitchers, or AL teams carry fewer pitchers.

It is all just happenstance. If it wasn't we would notice this year after year. A few years ago, I observed how easy it was to get an end-gamer in the AL. It is just a reflection of the current player pool and not a function of the differences between the AL and NL in "real" baseball terms.

In terms of fantasy, strategically, I will go more stars and scrubs in NL only and more spread the risk in AL as that is how the pool is composed. And in the AL, I want to avoid dollar days this season, which is in sharp contract to what I have suggested the past few years.

[Guest]

The thing of interest to me is the power - NL has the big power bats - Braun, Fielder, Howard, Pujols....AL your top guys are not lethal power threats...Cabrera/Tex/ARod are probably your big 3 in that tier for power. Speed, you basically get a Davis or Ellsbury or Borbon, Andrus, Crawford.. and hope they get 600PA and you'll compete. Power you really need to bully, hopefully without killing AVG. Strategically getting enough offense stats is more challenging, it seems but maybe thats just how it's been.

[cwk1963]

I haven't done only leagues in a while until the KFFL this year. I did the AL and really noticed how thin it is. They only use 10 hitters and 8 pitchers so I guess that made it a bit easier. Only 1 C and no MI or CI.

[daweasle]

there is another important factor no one really mentioned here

It's the 891 factor

In the AL - the DH means you can make your #9 hitter a marco scutaro/kinda optional leadoff hitter - someone with speed who gets on base....maybe steals a bag etc

In the NL - the Pitcher hitting is the biggest difference - it doesn't just hurt the #7 and 8 hitter by them scoring fewer runs, but it also gives the leadoff and 2 hole fewer runs to drive in.

(This results in 5 different hitters having decreased overall numbers over the course of the season.)

It makes the top tier talent in the NL even that much more valuable -
The DH on the other hand means that even the 891 hitters in the AL have a chance to get decent counting stats - so the it's not that the top tier talent is better or worse - but that the replacement level player is better than the replacement level in the NL.

I hope my theory is adequately explained becuase I am fairly sure that it is correct but I don't know how to factor it in to this discussion correctly - but i think it definitely fits in this discussion

[Todd Zola]

Except the 891 factor has been around for 30 years. It's just cyclical, happenstance.

The 891 factor should reduce production of top NL players relative to AL players, but the top of mixed rankings are dominated by the Senior circuit.