This will make you think!

[Macca11]

Great to be back with Mastersball, by the way.

Our long-time league (four divisions, I'm the the top, or Premier, League) is changing the draft rules for this season. We've never had an auction style before, always snake draft, but this year we're doing half and half Crazy, if you ask me, but them's the rules.
If you can be bothered to plough through it all, this is how it works
30-Round - Modified Auction & List Draft
First 15 rounds wiill be a live auction
Each team will have a budget of $250
Each manager will nominate ANY player they wish but must open the bidding at $5 for the first 5 rounds and $1 for the remaining 10 rounds.
At the conclusion of each player auction (as determined by moderator), the moderator will track bids and remaining budgets.
As soon as a manager spends all of their funds, they drop out of the auction. When their turn to nominate arrives, they will be skipped - i.e. You must have $1 to make a nomination.
The auction will last 15 rounds or until everyone has spent their money. Each manager can make a maximum of 15 nominations, each round allows every manager with money to nominate a player, so if a manager has not bought his players by the end of the 15 rounds he will lose his funds.
No manager is required to fill 15 slots by the end of the auction. For instance a manager can spend his entire budget on 10 players, but would then complete his roster at the end of the list draft (after 30 rounds).
After the 15 rounds of Live Auction (unless it finishes earlier), a standard snake list draft will follow.
The snake draft will last until every manager has completed their 30 selections. No manager will be able to select more than 30 players.
Roster: 2C, 1b, 2b, 3b, SS, 1CI, 2MI, 2UT 9 pitchers, 3 bench slots, 1 DL.
My question is: does anyone have the vaguest idea what the smart strategy would be here?
Ensure you get 10 players you want? Have fewer players when the snake draft starts but spend to grab the stars?
Has anyone here even played this hybrid before?
Just be interested to hear any opinions.

[viper]

This is a variation of a Shandler article last week. I actually like the concept and your league's plan is better than Shandler's I think. I would be more inclined to like 10 rounds however. This idea give you an auction without the length of time for a full 23-30 player draft. At first glance I would do a Stars and Scrubs for 8-10 players but make sure I had enough $1 bids to fill out my top 15. Having to take those 10-15th round players at the end of the snake draft is a huge penalty. I would guess that most players will do this and, about round 10, you will be pretty much in a snake draft with maybe one or two players cherry picking those five rounds with $2 selections. By that point the actual value differences will be minimal.

Another strategy would be to nominate 12-14th round players and hope some people overbid for them. That would leave more players in the pool once the the auction version of the snake draft started. I'm not sure what my limit would be on them but $2 or $3 would be it for sure.

[deansdaddy]

Interesting - but being knee deep in my own prep I don't really have the inclination to spend the serious brain power needed to even think about this one

Do you have a specific plan or plans you are thinking about - if you lay one or both out - I'll tell you what I think of them.

[Macca11]

Dean, It's not the prep I lack, it's the serious brain power!
To be honest, I've only just started to think about strategy, and it's making my brain hurt. My initial thoughts are go for stars for the first seven or eight players, then, as Viper implied, just keep 20 bucks back to pick up your last seven or eight.
As the man said, if you run out of cash, you really will be in trouble with a small squad waiting for the snake draft to start.
I suppose one good thing is that there will be few other players who know what they are doing in the auction format, so any edge I can get will be valuable.
I presume, with a $250 budget and 15 rounds, I should treat it a bit like a 10-team mixed auction? Oh, and I should have said, it's a 16-team Mixed League, standard 5x5.
Thanks for the quick replies - and any further tips!

[AllstonRockCity]

My brain is mushy after a 10 hour shift, but my initial thoughts are:

save $10, spend this in rounds 11-15 of the auction. this allows you to A) nominate players at $2 (which will scare most other bidders off as everyone will be mostly broke by then, except the 1 or 2 guys that are about to leave money on the table) and B) go $2 if someone nominate a guy you like at a buck. (if it goes to $3, oh well, plenty of guys left.)

spend your other $240 in rounds 1-10. Thats an average of $24 per round. Spend it and spend it all. DO NOT LEAVE ANY MONEY ON THE TABLE!!!. And don't buy a $6 guy for $24 just cuz you have the $$, that's the same as leaving it on the table. If you spend it hard and early you won't have this problem. Its not like a 'real' auction as you have the draft to bail you out.

Now you've got your 'stars' (rounds 1-10) and your 'scrubs' (rounds 11-15) but now I expect there to be a plethora of mid to low-mid level guys (probably a lot of pitching) there in the snake portion.

This is really the best of both worlds, you get to go "stars and scrubs" during the auction and play "spread the risk" during the draft.

[Macca11]

Thanks guys, interesting stuff. I've never done an auction before, so I'm wondering about what values the players will have, or what approximates most closely to their value. It's 15 rounds of a 16-team mixed 5x5, so I guess a 10-team mixed value would be close?

[AllstonRockCity]

i would use the CVRC and set up the league as if it were a 16 team league, but that each team only has 11 hitters and 4 pitchers (maybe 10/5, possibly 9/6). that should funnel a lot of $$ to the top tier talent, which is really all you care about. your in an OK spot in that no one in your league will have any clue, so you are not alone.

[Macca11]

Thanks. Sounds good. This may be a dumb question, but how do I do that on the CVRC when it asks for positions? In this auction/snake draft, it has to be a case to taking the best players available in the auction bit doesn't it, rather than specifying positions.
Or do I just put a 1 in the numbers for each hitting position? You may have noticed that maths makes my head spin, which is a bad thing in fantasy baseball!

[AllstonRockCity]

if you were doing say 11 hitters for example you would use the 2 pools method described in the primer. follow those instructions. On the "league set up" page, tell it 1 C and 10 non-C (whatever position you choose per the primer, I like to use OF, it requires the fewest changes.).

[daweasle]

curious if this draft happened yet ??

when is the draft?
couple questions.
1. do you know the draft order of the serpentine draft?(IE do you have the first pick last pick etc?)
2. do you have keepers or redraft for next year?

I would think if you planned something certain - you could cause some weird stuff to happen.

I think the biggest thing to note here is that you get to get to nominate 15 players and you can stay around till you run out of money.

what most people don't realize about auctions is the fact that you only have so many roster spots. so I mean - in most auctions - I will start in the first round and throw out the most random name I can think of (someone I would not hate to have - but certainly would never pay more than a buck for - this year my first name I nominate in my auction will be kevin millwood for $1 - I like millwood but I think he's worth $2 so if anyone goes $2 or $3 or $4 then they are overpaying for him. (cause I want value - meaning I want millwood for $1 and if I get crickets then I will have gotten him at halfprice)

but in normal auctions this strategy is productive/counterproductive cause eventually later in the auction - it all works itself out cause by the end everyone will fill their rosters - maybe by over paying or maybe by filling with $1 flyers.

But in your auction the money is only good till you get 15 players. So if for the first 5 rounds you threw out $5 players and the next couple picks you threw out $1 players - you could really control the auction one way or the other.

(expecting everyone else to throw out the utley/pujols/hanley/prince fielder and boom you bust out a Rafael Furcal for $5 - everyone will be shocked and have to really think if they want to waste a roster spot now for a $6 Middle infielder - but if you get stuck with him - you did good you got furcal undervalue and it helps you figure out where to spend your money later) but more importantly - if others spend their money on your nominations - then they end up filling their rosters with your random players - and by the later part of the auction - you still have a few bucks and a chance to bid on players - players who will be slightly better than your random nominations

It's a weird idea and I don't know how it will really work. but think about it and see if it would work for you.

Let's say for example you wanted to ensure you get several closers - you could name a mediocre/decent closer everytime it's your turn to pick. if you get stuck with him - you spent five dollars for a decent closer. (think jenks/cordero/valverde)
But if not someone else overpays and takes up one of their 15 picks on a closer. and by the last picks in the draft you might be able to get a little better closer for $3 or $4.

another thing would be like to throw out a $5 guy(from any position) when it's your turn to pick in the first five rounds - it would have to be someone that you'd be ok with getting but also someone who you wouldn't mind losing. examples would be mike napoli, chris young (ARIZ OF), paul konerko, kevin kouzmanoff

in a 16 tm mixed league those are few guys i have set at $6 exactly - and meet that criteria. I wouldn't mind getting them for $5 but if someone else wins them I am good with it.

It doesn't make sense to you until you get to round 14 and 15 and you realize that the guys left are a little better than you expected to be available. (not dramatically better but maybe a little better.)

I don't know - just an idea think of it and let me know what you think.

[Macca11]

That's an intriguing idea, daweasel! The draft is not until March 29, so I have got a bit more time yet to construct a clever gameplan/tie myself in knots thinking about it.
I hadn't considered your $5 theory. I think early on that players will be reluctant to let players go at the first bid. Mind you, as most of us haven't done an auction before, I could be completely wrong.
Just one point, though, is how to get a fair valuation, which is essential is attempting the plan you mention. I'm thinking set the parameters as if it were a 10-team league to get approximate valuations.
By the way, I draft 7th in the snake draft, and it is a redraft league. We can't have keepers as there is promotion and relegation with two other divisions below.

[daweasle]

I definitely do not think it's a good idea to use 10 tm projections as a valuation for auction dollars.

There are too many variables:
First - position scarcity in a 10 tm vice a 16 tm is hugely different
Second - category scarcity in a 10 tm vice a 16 tm is hugely different
Third - You have to factor in $1 players and $2 players will be the players going 175-240

Your best bet is to take the time to figure out real valuations - based on a 15 or 16 tm league and then modify it to match your crazy rules. If you did that - and then bid on players until they hit 80% of your calculated value - you will come out of the auction with 12-13-14-15 players you are very happy you got.

- A handful of players will come in thinking stars and scrubs and end up with 4-5 superstars and 9-10 late round picks
- Another handful of players will come in thinking Spread the risk and try to end up with 13 4th round picks (but they will not be able to do that of course)
- One guy will come in thinking he is coming out with 14 hitters and 1 closer - and he will just draft LIMA pitchers in the serpentine draft. (That was my initial thought but it won't work because so many players are going.)

- You need to be in the other frame of mind - best value players - by having the best projections and bidding guys up to 80 % so you end up getting the most value out of the auction.

You just have to be wide open to whatever crazy variety of players you end up with - and then trade for positional needs or category needs after the draft.

[daweasle]

just an idea of how to do the projections - maybe someone can chime with recommendations to make it more accurate but i think this is pretty good.

You start with the 15 tm mixed salary $$ values on the normal projection set. normally - that would be eerily similar to 16 team projections. especially since normal drafts have $260, and you have $250.

You will have to insert pitchers and hitters into the same spreadsheet for this plan to work.

We know that of the draftable players, approx 230-240 players will be auctioned off during the auction.

of those 230-240 players at least 30-40 of them will sell for $1.

So inflation could be figured like this:
Use mastersball projection for 15 tm league, and sort in excel descending on MIX 15 $$
Then starting at #200 and no matter what his value is, make all players below him $1. Make the next 25 players $2. and then add up all the remaining players value - it should be close to $3900 - if it's not - then you need to multiply all the player values by a ratio to get their total values to end up being $3900
(16 teams with $250 = $4000 then subtract $40 for the forty $1 players and $50 for the 25 $2 players) it leaves you with $3910 but $3900 is close enuf.


Once you got the values all figured up - then just modify them by a few bucks to match your own personal tastes and boom you got a pretty good leg up over the competition. when you throw out a few players (on your list as $5) others will start throwing out $8-10 bids and boom you already see value starting to build up.

[Macca11]

Dreading the Excel juggling (pitchers and hitters together?), but thanks daweasel, really appreciate all the thought. You, Allston and deansdaddy have given me me a much clearer idea of where I should be going. Glad that none of you are in my league though!

[AllstonRockCity]

I don't know that figuring in the inflation is worth the time. Just know that you can spend more on a guy than the $$ listed because:
A. your end gamers will be better than the typical end gamers
B. you have the 15 round snake draft to bail you out

Ultimately this is still a 16 team league. The $$ values should be based on the number of players that must be rostered (regardless of whether or not they are 'purchased' or 'drafted')

Just don't be afraid to go over the listed $$.

Good Luck

[daweasle]

I really wish I was in this league I have put so much thought into it now I think I would do very well.

And I totally disagree with allston that it's not worth the time to calculate inflation.

I could do it in excel in 20 minutes - send me your email and I will run it for you on sunday or monday. (I have my real draft this weekend so no time on friday or saturday)

plus - I am sure that 2-3 players will run inflation similar to my plan - another 11 players will not be prepared at all. you can have a HUGE LEG UP over the competition for an investment of 20 minutes time.