MY TURN -- An NFBC 45-round, no FAAB team

[Todd Zola]

Yes, that's right, 45 rounds, this is our roster for the rest of the season. We can manage it bouncing players from active to reserve, but we will only have these 45 guys to work with. This is my first try at this format, so I have no idea if there are "tricks". Of course, I spent some time thinking of ways to "game the format", but as usual, ultimately decided to play it straight with the possible exception of not chasing saves for two reasons. First you can win a single league without saves. You do need saves to compete for the 100K, but an individual league can be won with not many saves. Second, I'll take some speculative guys to not only hope they get saves, but also to use when I don't like my matchups. Other than that, I decided to back each position up, try to get a few multiple eligibility guys and have both power and speed on my bench. I wanted to avoid the high risk, high reward rookie that is likely to start in the minors as every roster spot is valuable when you consider the number of injuries in today's game...

From the 15-hole...

C Napoli-11, AJP-13 (Laird-28, Lucroy-35)
CI DLee-6, Wright-2, Konerko-14 (Overbay-27, Gamel-33, Hoffpauir-36)
MI Kendrick-8, Tulowitski-1, Castillo-22 (F Lopez-24, Belliard-39, J Hairston-34)
OF/DH Choo-5, AJones-7, Hart-12, Mags-15, Cameron-17, Crisp-25 (JGuillen-29, Griffey-38, Gathright-41, Craig-45)

SP Haren-3, CC-4, Dempster-10, Wolf-16, Correia-18, Latos-19, Arroyo-22 ( Niese-30, Kawakami-31, RHill-32, Mazzaro-40, Wakefield-43, Bush-44)
RP FCordero-9, Frasor-20, League-21, Howell-26, Mejia-37, Clippard-42)

I went out of character with Haren and CC at 3/4 but with Roberts and Reyes out of the first 3 rounds, nothing appealed to me there that I felt would be gone by the 5/6 turn, so I went with the best 2 starters on the board. And sure enough, the hitters at the top of my board at 3/4 were still there at 5/6.

I have no idea how this team will fare, it feels good, we'll see what happens.

[viper]

I totally love this format and I think you approached it correctly.

I may try it myself next year. Image I have four league with no beanch and would add one league with no FAAB.

[50 Desert Eagles]

Sounds like an old persons league that won't require a TON of time combing the fields of the wire.

[viper]

it is hard to imagine drafting 675 players. I guess that would be a deep league regardless of your definition. Of course, there are 750 players on all the 25-man rosters and an additional 450 on the 40-man rosters.

[Todd Zola]

Sounds like an old persons league that won't require a TON of time combing the fields of the wire.

Sigh.

Or a league with an interesting twist that might actually take more time to manage as you have to find the best combination of 23 players from a pool of 45 as opposed to a pool of 29 or 30.

[Kelly_Leak]

I wanted to avoid the high risk, high reward rookie that is likely to start in the minors as every roster spot is valuable when you consider the number of injuries in today's game...

I really like the "starting" line up you drafted - both hitting and pitching. If only everyone stayed healthy all year! I do wonder a bit about the line I extracted above. To me it would seem like a good play to roster one or two high upside prospects based on how you drafted. For instance, with Konerko and Lee being a bit older, I may have taken a shot at a Brett Wallace, Chris Carter, or Pedro Alvarez - prospects that don't have much blocking them to the majors, but definitely AAA bound. Obviously, I have no clue where these guys were actually drafted. I like Gamel and Lucroy where you took them - they both kind of qualify for what I described above.

Take my comments with a grain of salt, as I will be competing in my first NFBC Sat. league next week.

[Todd Zola]

The flip side is if there is a good chance these guys will miss time, I want to be sure I have some reserves that I KNOW can cover them.

Craig is also a longer term play.

[deansdaddy]

Sounds like an old persons league that won't require a TON of time combing the fields of the wire.

The DC format has quickly become the favorite draft prep tool for Main Event players. I know a lot of the "sharks" like them because it forces you to look at entire rosters and PT considerations. They also like them because you don't have to manage FAAB during the season. A lot of these players will have 4-8 teams that the have to actively manage - so the DC format has replaced the regular SAT drafts as prep leagues for a lot of people just to cut down on the Sunday FAAB work.

[cwk1963]

Todd,

I like the team. People are undervaluing Konerko this year IMHO so I like your corners and having the unspectacular but steady Overbay as a backup. I was a little surprised about your 3-4 picks but that's a perfect example of knowing who you want and when they would potentially go (waiting on Lee and Choo). Personally, I have a little problem with Choo and the whole Korean service thing although I admit I haven't researched it much since I made a post about it a couple months ago. You have the makings of a good OF and if Mags can bounce back a little in the power department it'll be nice.

I draft next week from the same position as you did so it'll be good to compare.

kelly - what day do you draft next week?

[Todd Zola]

With respect to Choo, it isn't a keeper league (duh) so are you concerned it will weigh on his mind? I personally tend to shy away from that sort of stuff, though I know it is relevant in some instances.

Last I read on Choo is he is acting like he has something up his sleeve to either delay or not have to do the service. And this is over and above the Olympic caveat where he can get out of it if he wins the gold.

I'm not sure I would have gone CC and Haren at the 3/4 turn in regular league.

I do know this -- Reyes and Roberts injuries have impacted the third round.

[Kelly_Leak]

kelly - what day do you draft next week?

Drafting on Wednesday evening (the 24th) at 7pm. How about you? I am hoping to get in a couple mocks this weekend on fanball.

I do know this -- Reyes and Roberts injuries have impacted the third round.

I am particularly worried about Roberts - it seems other drafters are as well. His ADP has dropped all the way to mid 5th (was mid 3rd). I may experiment in a mock by taking a Haren or CC type in the 3rd to see how my roster shakes out. That would be fairly early for me and my first pitcher.

Todd- I wish I could offer more critiquing on your draft, but it seems like you nailed it! I'm not thrilled with your Kendrick selection on the 7/8 turn, but what do I know as far as who was available. Plus, you backed him up nicely with Castillo/Lopez/Belliard/Hairston. It also appears you may be light on HRs if:
- Lee/Konerko have power outages as they approach the back end of their careers.
- Napoli sits more often than anticipated because of defense - who knows with Scioscia (although a Matsui injury could help)
- Magglio doesn't find the seats a few more times this year

[rotodog]

C Napoli-11, AJP-13 (Laird-28, Lucroy-35)
CI DLee-6, Wright-2, Konerko-14 (Overbay-27, Gamel-33, Hoffpauir-36)
MI Kendrick-8, Tulowitski-1, Castillo-22 (F Lopez-24, Belliard-39, J Hairston-34)
OF/DH Choo-5, AJones-7, Hart-12, Mags-15, Cameron-17, Crisp-25 (JGuillen-29, Griffey-38, Gathright-41, Craig-45)

SP Haren-3, CC-4, Dempster-10, Wolf-16, Correia-18, Latos-19, Arroyo-22 ( Niese-30, Kawakami-31, RHill-32, Mazzaro-40, Wakefield-43, Bush-44)
RP FCordero-9, Frasor-20, League-21, Howell-26, Mejia-37, Clippard-42)

I quite like the team in this format. Its pretty balanced all the way around assuming health for the players. It is not overly risky as far as injury prone high risk/high reward players. And the ones that you cant pencil in for 550 Abs have solid enough backups.. The HR and Sbs are distributed thoughout the lineup pretty well so one major injury shouldnt hurt too bad like owning an Ellsbury/Crawford/Bourne type injury.

At quick glance, it looks a tad light on power as I have a very conservative 255 HR estimate..But that total has upside because of the conservative HR totals I used when I added them up in 30 seconds...The Sbs could be a teeny light, but again I used conservative estimates when I counted... But overall, a pretty balanced team..

What I like is the SP staff.. And I love the Haren/CC back to backs... After thinking about it, i think that duo is very important in this format for this reason. Owning those two at the top allows for more speculation at the bottom. In a Non FAAB league, owners wont have the ability to go grab some hot pitcher on the WW.....So if your pitching stinks when you walk away from the draft, you cant fix it one bit... So the security of owning a Haren/CC combo at the top of your rotation will allow an owner to sleep at night.. I think in this format, pitching is even more important because you cant trade for it or FAAB it... Following up with Dempster as SP3 is icing on the cake....Add in 2 guys that wont kill you in corriea and Wolf, and I like it...

As Todd said, he isnt one to need saves to win, but you need them to compete in the overall..He remained true to his convictions with one closer and 2 reasonable speculations.. By the end of the season, I think you will see both Frasor and league with 15 saves and if they do, those 2 add up to one Full season closer...Add in JP scrubbing a few and I think it could work out... The one far out speculation Guy I like is Mejia....Not that is is very probable, but If F-Rod got hurt and this kid is in the pen, i could see the Mets giving him the save opps....Its a stretch at this point, but stranger things have happened and this kid has filthy stuff...

Nice Job...

[Todd Zola]

Kendrick was my one reach as I have him ranked lower. But that is his ADP and I figured if I am going to own him this year, this would have to be the format as I can hedge and face it, the best teams are not going to necessarily be the best 1-23, but who got lucky with their 24-45.

Going SP/SP in 3/4 certainly put me behind with respect to power.

But keep in mind that we also will be playing with the new rule where hitters can be subbed in freely on Fridays. I plan on taking advantage of that and part of what I did was to be able to do just that. I will maximize games per week at MI and UT and hopefully OF5. This should help power.

I'm on the other side of the Napoli coin and expect more playing time from him as I anticipate Matsui getting hurt.

Getting Mags in the 15th -- I am not expecting a power resurgence, just a .300 BA and the runs and RBI that come along with it.

[cwk1963]

With respect to Choo, it isn't a keeper league (duh) so are you concerned it will weigh on his mind? I personally tend to shy away from that sort of stuff, though I know it is relevant in some instances.

Last I read on Choo is he is acting like he has something up his sleeve to either delay or not have to do the service. And this is over and above the Olympic caveat where he can get out of it if he wins the gold.

I'm not sure I would have gone CC and Haren at the 3/4 turn in regular league.

I do know this -- Reyes and Roberts injuries have impacted the third round.

My bad...I got my years mixed up. This is what I posted back in January:

Choo is safe for this year. He is planning to play in the Asian Games for South Korea this coming November. If his team wins a gold medal in those games, he gets an exemption from military service. Otherwise he has to serve 2 years before age 30. I guess it would depend on your league rules if he had to leave for the military. Big roll of the dice IMO. Might be wise to just go 1 year. Or try to trade him to someone who might not know about the potential military service.

[Todd Zola]

At quick glance, it looks a tad light on power as I have a very conservative 255 HR estimate..But that total has upside because of the conservative HR totals I used when I added them up in 30 seconds...The Sbs could be a teeny light, but again I used conservative estimates when I counted...

This is what my SI.com piece was about last week. I don't have 255 HR (or whatever) because that total does not, and by no means can reflect in-season management.

The irony is I was the one ahead of the curve with respect to trumpeting target drafting and now I hope to be the one ahead of the curve pointing out its futility (sorry JP).

[Todd Zola]

With respect to Choo, it isn't a keeper league (duh) so are you concerned it will weigh on his mind? I personally tend to shy away from that sort of stuff, though I know it is relevant in some instances.

Last I read on Choo is he is acting like he has something up his sleeve to either delay or not have to do the service. And this is over and above the Olympic caveat where he can get out of it if he wins the gold.

I'm not sure I would have gone CC and Haren at the 3/4 turn in regular league.

I do know this -- Reyes and Roberts injuries have impacted the third round.

My bad...I got my years mixed up. This is what I posted back in January:

Choo is safe for this year. He is planning to play in the Asian Games for South Korea this coming November. If his team wins a gold medal in those games, he gets an exemption from military service. Otherwise he has to serve 2 years before age 30. I guess it would depend on your league rules if he had to leave for the military. Big roll of the dice IMO. Might be wise to just go 1 year. Or try to trade him to someone who might not know about the potential military service.

The "up-his-sleeve" is apparently getting American citizenship or the extreme of never going back to his homeland.

[cwk1963]

With respect to Choo, it isn't a keeper league (duh) so are you concerned it will weigh on his mind? I personally tend to shy away from that sort of stuff, though I know it is relevant in some instances.

Last I read on Choo is he is acting like he has something up his sleeve to either delay or not have to do the service. And this is over and above the Olympic caveat where he can get out of it if he wins the gold.

I'm not sure I would have gone CC and Haren at the 3/4 turn in regular league.

I do know this -- Reyes and Roberts injuries have impacted the third round.

My bad...I got my years mixed up. This is what I posted back in January:

Choo is safe for this year. He is planning to play in the Asian Games for South Korea this coming November. If his team wins a gold medal in those games, he gets an exemption from military service. Otherwise he has to serve 2 years before age 30. I guess it would depend on your league rules if he had to leave for the military. Big roll of the dice IMO. Might be wise to just go 1 year. Or try to trade him to someone who might not know about the potential military service.

The "up-his-sleeve" is apparently getting American citizenship or the extreme of never going back to his homeland.

This is possible but like you pointed out, only keeper leagues have to worry about it. He's safe this year because the Asian Games are in November and the Indians won't have to worry about playing past the 1st week of October.

[viper]

so you are not projecting them for a deep post-season run?

[cwk1963]

kelly - what day do you draft next week?

Drafting on Wednesday evening (the 24th) at 7pm. How about you? I am hoping to get in a couple mocks this weekend on fanball.

I'm drafting Tuesday the 23rd at 2pm.

[rotodog]

At quick glance, it looks a tad light on power as I have a very conservative 255 HR estimate..But that total has upside because of the conservative HR totals I used when I added them up in 30 seconds...The Sbs could be a teeny light, but again I used conservative estimates when I counted...

This is what my SI.com piece was about last week. I don't have 255 HR (or whatever) because that total does not, and by no means can reflect in-season management.

The irony is I was the one ahead of the curve with respect to trumpeting target drafting and now I hope to be the one ahead of the curve pointing out its futility (sorry JP).

You're right about the management....I just added some conservative HR totals from each starter....Maximizing those totals thru in season mgmnt and going with a hot/healthy Guillen or Hoffpauer for a few weekends here and there can certainly add up... And as i said, I was using pretty conservative rounded HR totals, so it very well could outproduce the conservative numbers I used...

[Hambowen]

Kinda upset I did not try this type of league out. Seems pretty interesting.

As for Choo I think South Korea will actually allow him to wait until after he is done playing. Choo in the majors is a great sense of pride for the country and his games are widely watched by his countrymen. Not to mention it will help their baseball program in the long run with more kids playing baseball instead of Soccer and Starcraft (yes the video game, it is almost a national sport in Korea).

[Kelly_Leak]

Kendrick-8

Out of curiousity, who else were you considering here? Were Asdrubal Cabrera, Ian Stewart, or Jose Lopez available? I know Kendrick is "ranked" lower according to MB projections than those above. Were you looking for BA with HR/SB upside if Howie remains healthy?

[Todd Zola]

Kendrick-8

Out of curiousity, who else were you considering here? Were Asdrubal Cabrera, Ian Stewart, or Jose Lopez available? I know Kendrick is "ranked" lower according to MB projections than those above. Were you looking for BA with HR/SB upside if Howie remains healthy?

I honestly don't remember, but knowing me as only I know me, this is my guess as to how it went down.

REGULAR ME: Hmm, this is when I usually take a pitcher, but since I doubled up with studs earlier, I think I can go hitter here.

BAD ME: Take Kendrick.

REGULAR ME: Nah, he needs to prove he is worthy of this spot

BAD ME: Wimp. It's not like there is a hitter screaming take me. Take Kendrick, have some fun.

REGULAR ME: Fun? Fun? You think this is supposed to be fun? I'm here to win.

BAD ME: Blow me you asstard. Take a chance. You know you like him and believe if he is healthy, he will rawk!!!

REGULAR ME: Yeah, but ...

BAD ME: No yeah buts you big fat pussy. Look, in this format, you can always cover your butt with 2B later. Just do it.

REGULAR ME: Okay, okay, but do me a favor and never call me a big fat pussy again.

[rotodog]

Kendrick-8

Out of curiousity, who else were you considering here? Were Asdrubal Cabrera, Ian Stewart, or Jose Lopez available? I know Kendrick is "ranked" lower according to MB projections than those above. Were you looking for BA with HR/SB upside if Howie remains healthy?

I honestly don't remember, but knowing me as only I know me, this is my guess as to how it went down.

REGULAR ME: Hmm, this is when I usually take a pitcher, but since I doubled up with studs earlier, I think I can go hitter here.

BAD ME: Take Kendrick.

REGULAR ME: Nah, he needs to prove he is worthy of this spot

BAD ME: Wimp. It's not like there is a hitter screaming take me. Take Kendrick, have some fun.

REGULAR ME: Fun? Fun? You think this is supposed to be fun? I'm here to win.

BAD ME: Blow me you asstard. Take a chance. You know you like him and believe if he is healthy, he will rawk!!!

REGULAR ME: Yeah, but ...

BAD ME: No yeah buts you big fat pussy. Look, in this format, you can always cover your butt with 2B later. Just do it.

REGULAR ME: Okay, okay, but do me a favor and never call me a big fat pussy again.

Hey Todd,

I think you have been working too hard lately... I know there is a content crunch and everyone wants answers and then of course there are all the drafts and the SI articles ....Maybe next time someone asks you to do a mock or join just one more experts league, you should decline. After opening day , I suggest a few days off to rest or lots of drinking...take your pick..

[Jim F]

Nice battle between Regular You and Bad You.

The scene from the Office when Dwight fights himself only to block every blow and it finishes with hitting himself in the nuts as a surprise move to best himself comes to mind.

Those that know the show will laugh, those that don't will wonder what the hell could be funny about that.

Beer is on me if you ever find yourself in the Palm Springs area. Nice work by the MB crew, I am hooked.