How do minor leaguers affect draft strategy?

Theories, Concepts and Analytical Discussion (draft strategies, valuation, inflation, scarcity, etc.)
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Shyguy30

How do minor leaguers affect draft strategy?

#1 Post by Shyguy30 »

A league I have been in for many years held its first ever minor league draft after last year's auction. Nothing too crazy, just a two round snake. Anyway, I can keep the rights to one of my minor leaguers this year and then sign him to a contract starting next year. I have Jason Heyward (can't believe 9 guys passed him up). My question is...do I approach the auction as if I already have an OF, maybe take a couple of studs and then take a couple of $1 OFs hoping to hit on something? Or should I draft as I regularly would and then if Heyward starts the season in ATL it is a bonus? I have no experience with this type of thing and would like to have some type of plan laid out for my OF as far as how much to spend and/or skimp. Also, we only have one UTIL slot. Thanks!

da_big_kid_94
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Re: How do minor leaguers affect draft strategy?

#2 Post by da_big_kid_94 »

Having Heyward in your back pocket is nice, but at this point, it is how he is viewed by both you and others that will make up his value (and yes, that can be read as trade). All he is right now is potential - he brings absolutely nothing to your auction and should NOT be factored in your decision making process for any player you intend to go after for your roster. I have Strasburg at 10 units - if he makes the O.D. roster, fine. If he gets sent down, just as well. But if he's sent down, I can't control when he comes back or how he will perform once he gets called up. So I'll be looking to fill all my pitching slots with bodies I feel can contribute from day 1.
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Todd Zola
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Re: How do minor leaguers affect draft strategy?

#3 Post by Todd Zola »

Especially if you feel you may need some extra budget for pitching, there is nothing WRONG with assuming Heyward will play for 4 months and planning accordingly.

But my question is would your normal strategy really entail 6 roster spots (5 OF and a UT) with none of them being $1/end gamers?

Seems to me it is always best to have some $1 spots that you look to upgrade over the course of the season. You just happen to have a head start on one.

So to me, the "better" question is something like I usually have 1 or 2 outfield spots dedicated to $1 players. With Heyward in my minors, should I up that to 2 or 3?

To which my answer would be no, stick with the 1 or 2 and feel a little warm and fuzzy that you are pretty much assured of upgrading one of your fungible spots and can thus focus on others, such as a $1 CI or $1 MI.

I like to have 7 or 8 $1 spots (MI, CI, 2 OF, UT, 3P)
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Shyguy30

Re: How do minor leaguers affect draft strategy?

#4 Post by Shyguy30 »

Todd, you are exactly right. The only thing is, this is a pretty shallow league (14 teams, but only 10 hitters and 7 pitchers active) that allows up to 5 keepers so all of the $1 players are usually the fringe veterans because the young guys get bid up. In the past, I've taken some big value older players like Ibanez ($8) and Damon ($11) last year. I was planning on using my bench slots to take some fliers on possible keepers for next year, but would have to immediately drop someone if Heyward makes the club unless I want to let him rot on my MiL roster. So maybe I should plan on taking someone at a discount that will start the season on the DL? Like a Beltran or a Bedard? That way if Heyward makes the club, I plug him in and if he doesn't, I get an early start on spending those FAAB. Or is that further handicapping me in the early part of the season?

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