Chapman the real deal?

[CaptainTrunk]

What do you guys think of Aroldis Chapman? He's getting rave reviews but I have no idea how much of that is hype. I have an early draft this year, so I'm interested if he's slated to start the year with the team or not. For position players I'm very wary of Dusty, but he doesn't seem to have a problem with young pitchers.

[viper]

he is a rookie and a raw rookie at that. In redraft leagues, I will let him be on someone else's roster. It's not that I won't draft rookies but my ideas on rookies are the first cousins to "don't draft rookies"

[Black Sox]

What do you guys think of Aroldis Chapman? He's getting rave reviews but I have no idea how much of that is hype. I have an early draft this year, so I'm interested if he's slated to start the year with the team or not. For position players I'm very wary of Dusty, but he doesn't seem to have a problem with young pitchers.

Simply my opinion but.....

1. All hype for this year. Best comparison I've heard, think R.Johnson when he first came up. He's completly hit or miss the miss being the strikezone. Someone will draft him, if it's the reserve round I can understand.

2. Your only wary of Dusty for position players !!! K.Wood and M.Prior would beg to differ. His problem with young pitchers is he causes their arms to fall off.

[CaptainTrunk]

2. Your only wary of Dusty for position players !!! K.Wood and M.Prior would beg to differ. His problem with young pitchers is he causes their arms to fall off.

Ah, I should have been clearer. First of all, I'm in a league where you can only keep guys for one year, and only 5 of them. So I'm not too worried about keepers. Secondly, I don't really care about his long-term health, I care about what he's going to do this year for me. OK, that's not really true, but for fantasy purposes I care about his ability and his playing time in 2010. For position players, Dusty yanks them around a lot, so even if the ability is there, the playing time may not be. For pitchers, he has shown that he will stick with a young pitcher through thick and thin, and yes, pitch them way too much.

So I wouldn't have a problem drafting a young pitcher on a Dusty team because I think that Dusty will pitch them. A position player may get sent to the bench or the minors after his forst 0-for-4 game.

[Captain Hook]

What do you guys think of Aroldis Chapman? He's getting rave reviews but I have no idea how much of that is hype. I have an early draft this year, so I'm interested if he's slated to start the year with the team or not. For position players I'm very wary of Dusty, but he doesn't seem to have a problem with young pitchers.

First of all Chapman is the REAL DEAL.....lefties who throw high 90s with command and who already have plus secondary pitches are very rare (this is why the comparison to RJ is wrong).

NOBODY knows if he will start the year with the Reds or in the minors.....BUT there is one significant factor - it doesn't cost the Reds any money or service time to have him start this year in the majors because of his contract.....very different even there than Strasburg who developmentally is thought to be ahead of Chapman.

Look at my comments in the Cactus League Notes (and in my upcoming LABR article).

Bottom line is - you want him if you can get him.....the PRICE varies with the nature of your team and personal risk tolerance as well as league context.


PVH

[Black Sox]

Oh ok, as a baseball fan I hate D.Baker, one of the most overated managers in baseball ( who benefited as much if not more from a roided B.Bonds ) I could right you a 1000 word essay on all the reasons I hate him, but we both touched on the main points.

Now back to your main question .....

Here a scouting report

PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION: Tall, lean and loose, thick legs, high hips, long arms, legs and fingers. Whippy body; physically matured, limber and powerful.

STRENGTHS: FB pitches at 93-95 with glove-side run, topped 100, several 97-98. 2-seam FB at 91-92. SL 82 and hard, glove-side sink. Overall command average to below-average. FB control ranges from average to above average. Workhorse type; different look from left-side; looks like an athlete. Repeats delivery and well-coordinated for big man, smooth gas, easy effort, arm speed is a blur.

WEAKNESSES: Freeze frame him and it looks like his elbow will snap off. Lacks third pitch, DNS CB, would need third pitch and different plane variation to become true top-tier starter. Doesn’t show a flair for pitch ability; relies mostly on FB velocity and control of that pitch. Highly talented though still incomplete arm, inconsistent command and control are concerns. Needs to learn to pitch like a professional.

SUMMARY: True rarity, power arm from LHP, easy gas, should be a No. 1 starter based on pure physicality of stuff and body. Two put-away power pitches; prefer if he had a third show-me off-speed pitch to start with. Age listed at 21, but body looks more like 28. As is, could have a year or two of exceptional success and a number of workhorse years if he can stay healthy.

Overall Future Potential: 60


DEFINITE PROSPECT: 55-69. These are above-average prospects who project to be quality starters on major league teams. These players are projected to produce consistent production with All-Star ability during their best years. (B)


Like I said earlier even with your clarification, I wouldn't touch him where I assume you would have to take him. If it's in the reserves fine, I don't belive he'll have much value this season.

[deansdaddy]

Here is a link to Keith Law's first scouting report on Chapman.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?nam ... id=4978560

[Black Sox]

I read Perry's comments he knows WAY more than me. I guess I just shy away from rookie pitchers in general, and with Chapman he can be great but it sounds like he's got some learning to do. I mean compare him to N.Feliz who's already pitched in the bigs or for a RP comparison D.Bard. All of these players reg hit 100 on the gun, but as Zumaya will tell you, they have to be able to pitch. I'm not saying he might not be great but to expect contribution right out of the gate for a 20 year old from another country is in my opinion asking too much, and is more risk than I'm inclined to take.

[rotodog]

I read Perry's comments he knows WAY more than me. I guess I just shy away from rookie pitchers in general, and with Chapman he can be great but it sounds like he's got some learning to do. I mean compare him to N.Feliz who's already pitched in the bigs or for a RP comparison D.Bard. All of these players reg hit 100 on the gun, but as Zumaya will tell you, they have to be able to pitch. I'm not saying he might not be great but to expect contribution right out of the gate for a 20 year old from another country is in my opinion asking too much, and is more risk than I'm inclined to take.

I agree 100% with the above statement.... But I can see why Perry loves him too...I just think it will take more than a year for him to learn how to pitch...Could he be successful the first time thru the league? I think so, but once the book gets out on him, I could see some struggles in year one... Would I take a flyer on him especially in an NL league or keeper league? Sure I would..Will i be spending solid money for him when other options are still available? Most likely no....