Jason Heyward

[Black Sox]

Unless you've stopped paying attention, everyone in baseball is talking about this kid, and for me I'm buying the hype. For me this kid represents what Delmon Young should have been. I saw Mastersball projection which without much data it's more than fair. However I'm betting he outproduces the projected HR/SB by almost double ( he'll have 8-10 HR by the All Star Break). I'm comfortable taking JD Drew and C.Hart and averaging the two projections. Before you think I'm crazy here's Andrew Jones' numbers at age 20

399 AB 153 Games .231 18 HR 70 RBI 60 Runs 20 SB

For those of us in non keeper leagues that allow trading, I belive he'll have even more value due to the 2/3 owners that always covet the next big thing. Just look for the one's with Strasberg/Jennings/Chapman already on their roster

With Heyward all the hype is not coming from Fantasy circles but actual baseball circles. The double he hit the other day, B.Cox said was the hardest hit ball he's ever seen. They installed a net in RF just to protect the cars in their spring training parking lot. The other MLB players are stopping what they are doing just to watch him hit.
The Braves feel had they promoted T.Hanson out of spring training they would have made the playoffs last year. They will not make the same mistake twice. Hope I'm not dissapointed, at least I've kept my expectations low

[da_big_kid_94]

I can understand enthusiasm ... I think he's capable of great things. I would temper my judgment by pointing out two things:

• Wait until he gets a steady dose of the yakker - then we'll see.
• Anyone remember an eerily similar situation with the Braves OF last year? And Schafer seems to have disappeared - pulled a regular Sparky Lyle, it seems.

[50 Desert Eagles]

I would say for every Andrew Jones at age 20, there is 5 other projected guys that never produce. Sure if you can get him at a good price, go for it, but I would say 8 out of 10 times, 5-10 players taken AFTER Heywood, will have a better season. I keep hearing how the Braves need outfielders....Here is there active roster.
1 Gregor Blanco L/L 5-11 170 12/24/83
53 Melky Cabrera S/L 6-0 200 08/11/84
23 Matt Diaz R/R 6-1 215 03/03/78
20 Eric Hinske L/R 6-2 235 08/05/77
24 Nate McLouth L/R 5-11 180 10/28/81
2 Jordan Schafer


McLouth will be fine
Melky is 25 and probably won't have any issues being a good/great player
Diaz, Hinske, Schafer and Blanco all for one spot with heywood......uhhhhhhhhhhh even IF 300 ab's for heywood...roster killer or would you be better to wait 5 or so rounder later and take Melky.....Being just a H2H guy, I like the action of having a regular starter everyday.....Once again though, if u have 9 bench spots or in a smaller league where you have starters on the FA....then he might have more value.

[Black Sox]

I can understand enthusiasm ... I think he's capable of great things. I would temper my judgment by pointing out two things:

• Wait until he gets a steady dose of the yakker - then we'll see.
• Anyone remember an eerily similar situation with the Braves OF last year? And Schafer seems to have disappeared - pulled a regular Sparky Lyle, it seems.

Your right I should temper expectations, but the risk vs reward is leaning heavily towards the reward side, until others start overdrafting him, he'll be on my teams.

I think Heywards pedigree is MUCH more significant than Schafer, the buzz and talk between respected baseball people is not even close.

[50 Desert Eagles]

Same Buzz as last season with Strasburg and Dukes......

[Black Sox]

I would say for every Andrew Jones at age 20, there is 5 other projected guys that never produce. Sure if you can get him at a good price, go for it, but I would say 8 out of 10 times, 5-10 players taken AFTER Heywood, will have a better season. I keep hearing how the Braves need outfielders....Here is there active roster.
1 Gregor Blanco L/L 5-11 170 12/24/83
53 Melky Cabrera S/L 6-0 200 08/11/84
23 Matt Diaz R/R 6-1 215 03/03/78
20 Eric Hinske L/R 6-2 235 08/05/77
24 Nate McLouth L/R 5-11 180 10/28/81
2 Jordan Schafer


McLouth will be fine
Melky is 25 and probably won't have any issues being a good/great player
Diaz, Hinske, Schafer and Blanco all for one spot with heywood......uhhhhhhhhhhh even IF 300 ab's for heywood...roster killer or would you be better to wait 5 or so rounder later and take Melky.....Being just a H2H guy, I like the action of having a regular starter everyday.....Once again though, if u have 9 bench spots or in a smaller league where you have starters on the FA....then he might have more value.

Your 100% right, unless he's that good. None of the players listed are a threat to his playing time if he doesn't struggle. The Braves roster in 97 had 4 players in the OF. Andrew had the fewest AB but the most games played

Games AB
A.Jones 153 399
R.Klesko 143 467
K.Lofton 122 493
M.Turner 138 499

[Black Sox]

Same Buzz as last season with Strasburg and Dukes......

Again I disagree, Strasburg didn't sign till what July or Aug can't remember. As far as Dukes, I think the projected numbers for him last year are what I think Heyward will do, but everyone knew the risk with Dukes was his attitude and off field. Again no one was comparing him to HOF players, and teammates and managers like Chipper Jones and Bobby Cox were not going out of their way to praise him. Lot's of players enter the fantasy hype machine as "the next big thing". The difference is the hype is coming from people that normally don't do that.

[JP Kastner]

Unfortunately, baseball is a business. I fully expect the Braves to demote Heyward on last day of spring training and keep him down the Braves can keep him for one more year before he becomes a free agent. This is the same thing that happened to Hanson, Braun and Longoria.

[da_big_kid_94]

Unfortunately, baseball is a business. I fully expect the Braves to demote Heyward on last day of spring training and keep him down the Braves can keep him for one more year before he becomes a free agent. This is the same thing that happened to Hanson, Braun and Longoria.

That is not a possibility to be ignored. It is unseemly, but not a rare occurrence. And I tip my cap to J.P. for bringing it up. However, one might also argue that those three transactions would be just as much about the starting of their arbitration clocks as it was about their free agency status. Were these the Braves of Ted Turner and John Scheurholtz, I would say he starts and stays (as they did with Jones and Furcal once they thought they were ready). Different ownership - different times. I don't think anything short of a catastrophe prevents him from being arbitration eligible in 2013 though.

[Black Sox]

Unfortunately, baseball is a business. I fully expect the Braves to demote Heyward on last day of spring training and keep him down the Braves can keep him for one more year before he becomes a free agent. This is the same thing that happened to Hanson, Braun and Longoria.

Your correct JP, but there are some teams that don't care ( ie Yankee's Red Sox ) and some teams that do ( Tampa Bay / KC ). I belive the Braves fall in the middle, they've done both. I do not consider the Braves a small market team

In this case from everything I'm reading that won't be the case with Heyward. It's why they low balled Damon. Also don't forget 2 things
1. This is B.Cox last year, loves the kid, and said all along that if he produces he'll play
2. The Braves regret not promoting T.Hanson out of spring training last year (and feel it cost them the playoffs ) and that they won't make the same mistake with Heyward

All of these things make me belive that Heyward unless his ADP moves up significantly is going to provide incredible value.

[Black Sox]

From Roto World:

Jason Heyward (Braves) - OK, who didn't see this one coming? Heyward isn't actually a sleeper anymore. He may be approaching the point at which he's a mid-round pick in mixed leagues. He's an awfully dangerous selection at that price -- the Braves have some big financial incentives to justify sending him down for two months -- but it's becoming more and more likely that he'll be their Opening Day right fielder. My best guess if he gets 500 at-bats: a .270 average, 20-22 homers and 80 RBI. He could also swipe 10 bases. I doubt he'll be a $20 player as a rookie, but he might end up being worth at least $15.

Oh the lastest comparison after his 1st HR, a 420 ft moon shot from Jim Leyland:

"A young man with his size, with the strength he has, he looks like a really good looking young player," Leyland said. "I was very impressed with his patience at the plate more than anything. He didn't chase any bad balls. (Albert) Pujols was the other guy who was like that." CBS Sports

This guy is gonna make some fantasy seasons, where he's getting drafted now in non keepers is immense value. Current ADP is 244. Target ADP is 181

[Tig]

with all the hype and coverage he's getting.

can I be confident with taking him with my 8th rounder (#156) in a 20 team league that starts 5 OF'ers.... or am I still jumping the gun?

there are 47 OF'ers off the board...

[JP Kastner]

I still believe that he'll be sent down. As far as picking him up in the 8th round? I think it is jumping the gun. There are other more assured options available.

[Black Sox]

That's a little early, but I'm not positive he'll still be there. In my ranks that's right around Rivera, Gutierrez, Cameron, Wells. If that's the case I'd maybe hedge on J.Rivera but I wouldn't fault you either for taking Heyward.

Keep in mind I'm normally someone who won't draft rookies except for as end gamers. I always belive in taking the safe stats, and the risk normally outweighs the reward. I just feel Heyward is a different breed than most. His combination of power/speed and most importantly his batting eye. Really we have NO idea what this kid could do in a season worth of AB's. For me I'm drafting him as a .270 20HR 80/80 10SB with the chance for more. If your comfortable with the risk, compare those numbers to the projections of the OF left in the pool, and roll the dice if it makes sense to the make up of your team. You also didn't state are you drafting him as your 3/4/5 OF? If you do get him I'd make either your UT an OF or make sure you speculate on some other upside OF to hedge your bets.

PS - I'm willing to bet JP's wrong ( in fact I am betting with my own selections ) I will bow before him if I'm wrong, and appologize to those if any I've misled. Even if Jp's right your still getting a hell of a player for 4 months, and a valuable trade chip if your league allows trading. Reguardless of what happens he'd still end up with more trade value than where you select when he arrives

[Todd Zola]

I think we need to be a little more conservative with our power expectations.

There is a BIG difference between hitting BP fastballs through car windows in March and facing real MLB pitching over a long, hot season.

[Black Sox]

great point Todd, and your probably right on the HR, I guess the reason I feel more comfortable is

#1 His incredible batting eye, from what I've heard he has pro AB's fight's off the tough one's and drives the others

#2 The amount of poor pitching. I think he'll hold his own against the good/great ones, and destroy the bad ones. 18/19 games against the Mets/Nationals pitching staffs is looking real good to me

[Todd Zola]

Except the Earth is likely to be shifted off its axis when Heyward faces Strasburg.

[Black Sox]

From P.Gammons article on MLB.com
The question put to the Braves' Jason Heyward was whether being the new "new" thing of the 2010 season was at all uncomfortable -- with his veteran teammates or his fellow Minor Leaguers or his manager, Bobby Cox.
Or with comparisons, as the phenom has been likened to Willie McCovey. And Willie Stargell.
"The [Darryl] Strawberry comparison isn't right. I'd say Fred McGriff," Cox chimed in.
Astros manager Brad Mills asked Cox, "When did you get Cliff Floyd?" Mills later added, "In five years he's Dave Parker."
Mills went on about the line drive off the bat of Heyward that his second baseman reached for -- only to see it rocket off the right-center-field fence.

"Not only is he the real deal," said veteran teammate Brian McCann, "but he's the real deal off the field. Everyone loves him. Man, does he play hard."
"This kid," said Eric "Mr. October" Hinske, "isn't real. He might be the best 20-year-old ever."

"A lot of scouts came in [to see Heyward play], and he got walked so much, many of them thought he wasn't aggressive enough swinging the bat," said Bridges.
But that discipline is one of the things that will make Heyward's jump to the big leagues easier. Through Monday he had five walks, one homer, five hits and one strikeout in 12 plate appearances, and Cox says thst one strikeout came on two bad calls.
Heyward is quickly becoming part of Atlanta's baseball lore, so unlike the situation with Tommy Hanson last spring, it is going to be very difficult for the Braves to send him to the Minors to start the season, especially given their need for outfield power.
"He plays defense," said Cox. "He throws. He is a great baserunner. ... He does everything, and he does it fundamentally sound."

This is starting to become the stuff of Glenn Close / Robert De Niro my man love is starting to become a problem. After reading P Gammons article I'm ready to adopt the kid!

[Tig]

If your comfortable with the risk, compare those numbers to the projections of the OF left in the pool, and roll the dice if it makes sense to the make up of your team. You also didn't state are you drafting him as your 3/4/5 OF? If you do get him I'd make either your UT an OF or make sure you speculate on some other upside OF to hedge your bets.

well, he was there and I took him. (and found out after the fact, he would not have made it back to me in rd 9.)

also, he was my 4th OF behind Kemp, Choo, and Adam Jones.

[Black Sox]

Tig,

Welcome to the Heyward bandwagon, it's gonna get crowded! Love your OF hope your IF fares as well!

Kinda figured he'd be gone, the later and later in spring training, the more and more people are gonna jump and take him, and the less and less value he'll return on that investment

I drafted a team the last week in Feb ( 10 Team Mix 5x5 ) he was selected in the 24th round. Started liking what I was hearing about him, and convinced someone to trade him to me for R.Madson who I took 6 picks earlier ( other team has Lidge ) My most recent draft I selected him in the 17th round ( pick 173 ). Was looking at 15 picks before my next selection and knew I had to draft him if I wanted him.

[Tig]

Tig,

Welcome to the Heyward bandwagon, it's gonna get crowded! Love your OF hope your IF fares as well!

I love my OF, but my IF, well, not so much:
1b - Garrett Atkins
2b - Brandon Phillips
SS - Jhonny Peralta
3b - Ian Stewart
Mi - Rickie Weeks (can/will he ever stay healthy and put a season together!)
CI - Mark Teahen

still need a C, OF, & Util and a whole lotta pitching...

[50 Desert Eagles]

I think the kid is great and all, but I will let someone else take the chance before a ton of proven talent....last week in a 20 team league I am in(most are veterens), he was taken 6th round....ahead of these OF's....Kubel, McClouth, Soriano, Bourn, Hawpe....just to name a few....Personally, I would have taken McClouth without blinking over Heywood, actually, I would have taken all the names I listed(EXCEPT Soriano).

[Black Sox]

You also need a 1B , in my humble opinion Atkins is toast. Otherwise I don't mind how you built your team, you might regret not getting a SP anchor but I have no idea who your #1 will end up being. Good Luck.

[Black Sox]

I think the kid is great and all, but I will let someone else take the chance before a ton of proven talent....last week in a 20 team league I am in(most are veterens), he was taken 6th round....ahead of these OF's....Kubel, McClouth, Soriano, Bourn, Hawpe....just to name a few....Personally, I would have taken McClouth without blinking over Heywood, actually, I would have taken all the names I listed(EXCEPT Soriano).

Yea, that's a joke, I'm his biggest fan but I'm not passing over that talent for him. Knew that would start happening. When you see what's going on already with Strasberg I knew Heyward would follow.

[Tig]

You also need a 1B , in my humble opinion Atkins is toast. Otherwise I don't mind how you built your team, you might regret not getting a SP anchor but I have no idea who your #1 will end up being. Good Luck.

So far, i have Billingsley and De La Rosa for SP and Frank Francisco at closer. as for Atkins, i hope you are wrong, but wouldnt be at all surprised if you weren't.


and for the record, none of those OF'ers mentioned above were available when I grabbed Heyward.

[viper]

as a fan of baseball, I want to see him up. From a fantasy perspective, I won't have him. He is going at points in drafts that I am not interested in him. He goes way above MB projections and I haven't determined how far above. He is a good example for Todd's latest SI column.

[Black Sox]

as a fan of baseball, I want to see him up. From a fantasy perspective, I won't have him. He is going at points in drafts that I am not interested in him. He goes way above MB projections and I haven't determined how far above. He is a good example for Todd's latest SI column.

I thought in Tig's draft he still represents fair value, 50 Deserts where I'm sure he'll start trending is a mistake. I'm just glad I drafted a few early teams and got him before his price inflated. I too am a huge baseball fan, and quite frankly I've never been this excited about a rookie. I just think he's a real special player.

[viper]

As they said on Baseball Tonight, imagine Strasburg facing Heyward shortly after SS is brought up. Did they really say something about the world tilting on it's axis? I'm feel Heyward will start the season on the 25-man roster. For SS sake, I hope he gets in minor league work through at least May and maybe June.

My guess on his debut in June 4. It is the first game of a 6 game home stand afer an extended road trip. He would pitch the opener against Cincy and the closing game of the series against the Pirates.

[deansdaddy]

In the MB Mock draft - (15 teams) - i selected Heyward in the 18th RD as my 5th OF selected - and backed him up with Milledge and Bradley. I think with all the hype he will go much higher in NFBC drafts than that now - maybe as high as the 12th rd - no way I pick him there with all the SP's and RP's not to mention C's that will be selected there. I think the closest comparison is Evan Longoria from 2008 - he was equally hyped and when he came up he delivered in his rookie season. However - if I can get him as a 4th/5th OF and grab a vet like Bradley or Dye later on - I would do it all day long.

[Black Sox]

Agree completley Dean, I'm targeting him in the 17th round in my mix leagues.

As for Strasberg, K.Towers former SD GM is quoted as saying that Strasberg is the greatest pitching prospect he's EVER seen. For his sake I hope he stay's in the minors and is not rushed, I think the Nat's are doing it the right way. Just keep him away from J.Torre and D.Baker and his arm should stay attatched to his body.

[Captain Hook]

I got him Sunday in the 13 team LABR NL league for $14......so some other player thought he was worth $13......BIG question I know if he is in RF on Opening Day.....if not he will be back up in late May or June and I don't want to be in a FAAB bidding war for him then.....would rather take the chance he starts in ATL on Opening Day and at worst reserve him and then call him back up when is called up

[viper]

Last night he was 14.1
Tuesday nite he as 14.11

His slow draft ADP was 17th round

[rotodog]

I got him Sunday in the 13 team LABR NL league for $14......so some other player thought he was worth $13......BIG question I know if he is in RF on Opening Day.....if not he will be back up in late May or June and I don't want to be in a FAAB bidding war for him then.....would rather take the chance he starts in ATL on Opening Day and at worst reserve him and then call him back up when is called up

Actually, perrys logic is right on here. I dont like to overpay for rookies personally, but at 14 bucks, that price is not out of whack in what he could produce in a 4 month season if he is sent down....Especially when you consider some FAAB OF Stats he would need to use in the meantime.

Then there is the upside that he starts the year on the team and has 6 months of ABs.... It also gives him a promising trade chip if he plays well for the first half, or when he gets called up on June 1....

if he hits .275 with 15 HR and 65 runs, 65 RBI with some Sbs sprinkled in, he will be worth every penny of that 14 bucks in an NL league....

[Black Sox]

We now have proof the Jason Heyward IS human

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that Braves OF Jason Heyward will sit Wednesday with a sore back sustained after hitting the outfield wall while trying to jump for a homer on Tuesday. The injury isn't of the serious variety.

I bet the wall is in worse shape!

On that note after reading Gammons piece, I am a little worried he could become injury prone. The report is this kid goes all out every time. Too many bumps and bruises and his numbers could suffer. Maybe not as big of a deal at 20, but as he get's older. I hope someone can convince him that you need to pick your spots, and preventing spring training HR, while nice are as B.Bellichek would say..... " Not what were looking for "

[rotodog]

We now have proof the Jason Heyward IS human

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that Braves OF Jason Heyward will sit Wednesday with a sore back sustained after hitting the outfield wall while trying to jump for a homer on Tuesday. The injury isn't of the serious variety.

I bet the wall is in worse shape!

On that note after reading Gammons piece, I am a little worried he could become injury prone. The report is this kid goes all out every time. Too many bumps and bruises and his numbers could suffer. Maybe not as big of a deal at 20, but as he get's older. I hope someone can convince him that you need to pick your spots, and preventing spring training HR, while nice are as B.Bellichek would say..... " Not what were looking for "

uhh Oh.... time to drop him down on the ranking lists!

[pstonge]

So what about in a forever keeper league - 12 teams, up to 6 keepers each year? What round is too early in a year I'm rebuilding anyway?

[Black Sox]

ESPN is reporting that Jason Heyward is the ATL starting RF. Todd / Gary how does this info change your projections for him?

[Guest]

Current projections have him with full playing time. I wouldn't go much more aggressive than where we have him now.

[Todd Zola]

yeah, we went 2 for 2 on Wed night, giving Heyward full time run and making Hughes the Yankees starter before the announcements