Projection questions on several hitters

[viper]

1. Heyward - I think he is being added tonight
2. Desmond Jennings - should he be projected

are ABs too high for:
G.Anderson - 442
Schumaker - 603
Hoffpauir - 332
M.Diaz - 482
J.Crede - 413
M.Gamel - 380
A.Huff - 529
A.Callaspo - 273 (should it be higher)

[Todd Zola]

1. Heyward - I think he is being added tonight YES
2. Desmond Jennings - should he be projected NOT YET

are ABs too high for:
G.Anderson - 442 addng him as an OF with LAD, 126 AB
Schumaker - 603
Hoffpauir - 332
M.Diaz - 482
J.Crede - 413
M.Gamel - 380
A.Huff - 529
A.Callaspo - 273 (should it be higher)

THE REST ARE OK, WILL ELABORATE LATER

[Todd Zola]

Schumaker - 603 we have him hitting second but are watching to see if that will stay
Hoffpauir - 332 just a call on our part as he is backing up a bunch of injury prone guys and we like him more than Fuld, Tracy and Nady
M.Diaz - 482 If we have Heyward breaking camp, Diaz and Melky will both lose AB
J.Crede - 413 just a 3 yr average still a FAA
M.Gamel - 380 add up McGahee, Weeks and Gamel -- that covers 2B and 3B and some DH/PH time
A.Huff - 529 full time
A.Callaspo - 273 odd man out -- your mileage may vary

[JP Kastner]

We are also assuming that he'll do the 2B/OF shuffle on the double switch, so he is likely to play nearly every day.

[viper]

for St.Louis

508 Lopez
603 Schumaker
347 Ryan
397 Lugo
498 Ludwick
576 Rasmus
577 Holliday

Who starts?

[Todd Zola]

Sometimes you don't look at it as "who starts" but rather how much does everyone play?

But as for conventional starters...

Schumaker 2B
Ludwick OF
Rasmus OF
Holliday OF

Lugo, Ryan, Lopez and Freese share 3B and SS and some 2B.

[viper]

just seems high. I'm good with the OF. The 2B/3B/SS seems off. At least we are dealing with $6 or lower players. I'll probably just not take one for the end game. ST will sort things out I guess.

[Guest]

I think Freese is the issue here...everyone else it somewhat makes sense, but if Freese hits either Lugo or Ryan takes a real hit.

[Todd Zola]

Lots of loving parts.

Greene, Freese, Ryan, Lopez and Lugo have 1916 plate appearances.

1400 cover SS and 3B.

That leaves 516 with probably 150 to cover the non-Schumaker time at 2B.

So we are +366 or so which go to DH, pinch hitting and more outfield coverage.

The trouble is we can't Stavinoha all the missing AB from Ludwick, Rasmus and Holliday and there are no other OF around, except Schumaker.

So Schumaker goes to the OF and the others cover 2B.

Lopez can also play OF.

The reason it looks high is the lack of a solid 4th OF and the need for Schumaker to cover.

[da_big_kid_94]

A.Callaspo - 273 odd man out -- your mileage may vary

Hey, hey, hey ....watch that!

[Kelly_Leak]

2. Desmond Jennings - should he be projected

First, let me say I completely understand MB's projection process...starting with the basic premise of projecting total team ABs at every positions. I also realize there is a near certainty that Desmond Jennings will start the year in AAA and adding him to the current projection set would thus diminish other TB OF totals.

However, have you ever thought about or discussed providing a projection of maybe 10 AL and 10 NL prospects that may see time in 2010? There could be some disclaimor stating something needs to happen at the MLB level in their favor to see anything but September ABs. I'm thinking this list of projections would be completely separate from the main projection set.

The reason I ask is I know you have a model that can project minor league stats to the major league level. This is obviously a great asset when it comes time to project someone like Scott Sizemore. However, I'm curious to know what the model would say if a Desmond Jennings, Brett Wallace or Chris Carter were given 250 ABs. All I can really do is look at their numbers on MILB.com and make a guess. Whereas your model (if I remember correctly) is based historical minor league to MLB statistics. Maybe it could just be rate stats and the user could enter the ABs. If I wanted to see how Jennings projected over a full season of ABs, I could enter 650 ABs next to his name and projected totals would appear.

I think this would be helpful to some AL and NL only league subscribers as well as some large mixed keeper leagues. I should note I don't want to use this information for projecting values for these "prospects", I just want to be able to see how their minor league numbers translate.

There could even be a column where it has a little write-up about the Prospect and who(m) is currently blocking him...kind of like Rob's write-up about Michael Taylor. For example:
Brett Wallace, TOR 1B/3B - Being moved to 1B to begin 2010. Is currently blocked by Lyle Overbay. Must show he has learned the position as well as an injury or trade of Overbay/Ruiz/Encarnacion before he will be considered for MLB action.

[Todd Zola]

Good idea -- maybe we can shoot Rob a list of our translated stats for some guys and he can do a write-up.

[Guest]

Kelly - start the thread getting the names everyone wants and I'll get a file to the home office tonight with the stats. We'll also try and do the writeups afterwards.

[Kelly_Leak]

I posted a thread in the Player News and Analysis forum only because I believe that gets the most traffic. Hope thats a good enough spot.

Thread: viewtopic.php?f=7&t=1697