injury risks vs proven studs (pitchers)

[daweasle]

Just an interesting idea I was having and thought I would post it and see what you guys think.

I am using purely mastersball projections to deomnstrate an example of something here - I want your opinion on which is the better pitching staff?

STAFF A
Johan Santana - $25
Cliff Lee - $20
Randy Wells - $2
Brett Myers - $1
TOTAL $49

STAFF B
Brandon Webb $15
Rich Harden $14
Erik Bedard $12
Ben Sheets $10
TOTAL $51

OK - so the idea here is that with STAFF A - you have two very reliable aces, and two average run of the mill guys with very little upside. Assuming Santana and Lee perform up to expectations, you end up with two aces and you can play waiver wire pickup with myers and wells spots as much as you want until you get a guy you like alot. But however it works out, unless you get really lucky on the waiver wire - you have two ACES.

So then there's staff B - at the outset of the season - you have four legitimate aces. (technically three considering bedard will be on the DL) they can get you some good stats in the first month until the inevitable happens and one of them gets hurts and hits the DL.
But at that point - you can pickup any random guy who has a start against KC and a start against cleveland, and then boom hopefully your ace is back from the DL.

ideal world, which would your prefer? two reliable studs, or four injury prone aces who if healthy could provide you with the best staff imaginable - but could just as well all be on the DL for the year by the all star break?

Is it better to spread the risk? Or might it be better to take an ALL LUCK strategy - going after 4 or ever 5 or 6 oft injured aces hoping three or more can remain healthy and put up monster seasons worthy of fantasy greatness?

you could end up with an awesome pitching staff if this worked out? and if not - you would at worst end up with two aces and a couple waiver wire fodders on the DL - the same thing you'd have with santana lee myers and wells

whats your take?

[deansdaddy]

My first take is that Santana and Myers haven't been exactly injury proof recently - especially Myers.

[Trav The Ump]

The first thing that jumped at me was your or an individual's tolerance of risk. This is kind of like playing the stockmarket. Of course the answer is balance, balance, balance. And if you're going to gamble on one side make sure the hitting is a no brainer.

Personally I like the risk or someone else's phrase I'm going to borrow the "flammable" option. Either you run away with it or start wheeling and dealing. The boring option is good enough sometimes but not all the time, you know right away with option two where your headed. But that's just me and what do I know.

[JP Kastner]

One interesting way of looking at this problem is to build two teams. Our goal in this league is to have an ERA of around 3.50 to win. Both use two different strategies. In the Team A scenario, we spend all our money on one pitcher and just a $1 on the other. In Team B case, we spread the wealth. Let's look what happens when we replace those pitchers on at a time with a replacement pitcher with a 4.50 ERA.

Team A
Pitcher A: ERA - 2.88 (IP: 200, ER: 64)
Pitcher B: ERA - 4.10 (IP: 200, ER: 91)

Team B
Pitcher C: ERA - 3.51 (IP: 200, ER: 78)
Pitcher D: ERA - 3.47 (IP: 200, ER: 77)

Replacement Player
Pitcher X: ERA - 4.50 (IP: 200, ER 100)

Team A: Pitcher A lost (4.30 ERA). Pitcher B lost (3.69 ERA).
Team B: Pitcher C lost (4.01 ERA). Pitcher D lost (3.98 ERA).

In Team A's case, if we lose Pitcher A, our season is lost. There is no hope of achieving our goal. If we lose Pitcher B, we are still in pretty good shape. In Team B's case, if we lose either pitcher, we lose, but it is not nearly as bad as if we lost Pitcher A.

The way I look at it, Team A is the better risk. If both pitchers are healthy, I win. If I lose the cheap pitcher, I am still in the money. If I lose Player A, I'm totally screwed, but I know that going into it. In Team B's case, I will lose if either pitcher goes down.

Using this as an example, your first scenario is more likely to be successful.

[Todd Zola]

I don't know which projections and which size league you are using but give me 4 from this group to make the money even and this would be my choice

Wandy Rodriguez
Josh Johnson
Ted Lilly
Ryan Dempster
Scott Baker
Randy Wolf
Jered Weaver
James ShieldsJ
Jair Jurrjens

[daweasle]

so todd
is that to say 16 team mixed league -
i walk out of the draft with a 8 man pitching staff of

Ryan Dempster
Scott Baker
Randy Wolf
Jered Weaver
James Shields
Jair Jurrjens
and two mediocre-average closers

I don't need any sabathia type studs and I can make top four in pitching with this staff?

(or more importantly if I have this staff and plenty of hitting I can win a 16 team mixed head to head league)